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Crypto Markets Bifurcate With Institutions Focusing on BTC and ETH While Retail Chases Alts: Wintermute

The crypto market is splitting in two.
Institutional and retail investors are taking increasingly different paths, with institutional players anchoring themselves in bitcoin BTC and Ethereum’s ether ETH while retail investors pour into altcoins and memecoins, according to a mid-year report from crypto trading firm Wintermute.
Analyzing over-the-counter spot trading volumes, institutional trading volumes with the two largest tokens held steady at 67%, likely backed by ETF inflows and structured accumulation vehicles, the report said. Meanwhile, retail investors dropped their BTC and ETH exposure from 46% to 37%, shifting capital toward newer, more speculative tokens.
«This divergence isn’t a temporary thing; It’s the sign that we are experiencing a more mature, sophisticated and specialized crypto market,» said Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO and founder of Wintermute.
«Investors are no longer chasing the same trend,» he added. «Institutions are treating crypto as a macro asset, while retail traders continue to gravitate to innovation.»
Overall, traditional finance (TradFi) firms were the fastest-growing cohort in OTC trading volumes, growing 32% year-over-year. That growth was being fueled by regulatory developments like the U.S. GENIUS Act and the EU’s ongoing MiCA rollout, which have given larger firms more confidence to participate, the report said.
Retail brokers also saw strong activity, with a 21% rise in volume over the same period. Meanwhile, crypto-native firms dialed back, down 5%.
OTC options volume jumped 412% compared to the first half of 2024, as institutions embraced derivatives for hedging and yield generation, the report noted. Meanwhile, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) doubled in variety, offering access to less liquid tokens in a more capital-efficient way.
Wintermute said its own OTC desk saw spot trading volumes grow at more than twice the pace of centralized exchanges, signaling a shift toward more discreet, large-volume trading favored by traditional finance.
The firm noted that memecoin activity has become more fragmented. While overall retail trading in memecoins declined, the number of tokens traded by individual users doubled, signaling a broadening appetite for micro-cap assets in the long tail of the market.
With that, legacy names like dogecoin DOGE and shiba inu SHIB lost ground to a growing list of niche tokens such as bonk BONK, dogwifhat WIF and popcat POPCAT, the report noted.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, Wintermute analysts said to keep an eye on spot dogecoin ETF filings with spot with a final regulatory decision expected by October.
«The outcome could significantly impact the retail market and set a precedent for other alternative assets,» the report said.
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Bitcoin Market Top Is ‘Nowhere Near,’ Say Analysts as Price Pauses at $120K

Bitcoin BTC cooled off during U.S. trading hours Monday after nearly topping $123,000 earlier in the session, but market top calls are premature, analysts said.
BTC slipped below $120,000 late in the U.S. day, shedding most of its overnight advance, but holding on to a modest 0.6% gain over the past 24 hours. Ethereum’s ether ETH slid back below $3,000, while dogecoin DOGE, Cardano’s ADA ADA and Stellar’s XLM XLM declined around 2%-3% on the day.
Among majors, XRP XRP, SUI SUI and Uniswap’s UNI UNI outperformed with 2.5%, 10% and 6% gains, respectively.
Crypto-linked stocks also retraced some of their morning gains, with Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy (GLXY) still higher 3%-4%, while Coinbase (COIN) gained 1.5%
After BTC surged over 10% in less than a week and some altcoins advancing much more, prices may consolidate as some traders digest the move and realize profits.
Still, this leg of the crypto rally is more likely in the early phases than towards the end, said Jeff Dorman, CIO of digital asset investment firm Arca.
In a Monday investor note, he cited crypto analyst Will Clemente’s observation about previous major tops like March 2024’s spot bitcoin ETF-related peak and the Dec 2024/Jan 2025 frenzy surrounding the Trump election/inauguration, when open interest in altcoin derivatives flipped that of BTC
«The current rally is nowhere near that,» Dorman said.
Volumes on both centralized and decentralized exchanges rose 23% week-over-week, but still aren’t near to the levels during other broad-market rallies in the past, Dorman added.
Looking at the big picture, bitcoin is being propelled higher by excessive sovereign debt and investors seeking refuge from monetary inflation, said Eric Demuth, CEO of Europe-based crypto exchange Bitpanda.
He said BTC rising to €200,000 ($233,000), is «certainly a possibility,» but the underlying adoption of the asset carries more importance than price targets.
«What happens when Bitcoin becomes permanently embedded in the portfolios of major investors, in the reserves of sovereign states, and in the infrastructure of global banks?,» he said. «Because that’s exactly what’s happening right now.»
In the next years, Dermuth expect bitcoin’s market capitalization to gradually converge to gold’s, currently sitting at over $22 trillion, nine times larger than BTC.
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It’s Crypto Week. Congress Can Future-Proof the U.S. Financial System: Summer Mersinger

When Congress established the Securities and Exchange Commission in 1934, it was responding to myriad failures of an antiquated financial system. The regulatory architecture that emerged provided the foundation for nearly a century of American financial dominance. Today, Congress faces a comparable moment: the opportunity to modernize America’s financial infrastructure for the digital age.
Two pieces of legislation now before lawmakers, the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and comprehensive market structure reform, represent more than incremental policy adjustments. Together, they constitute America’s response to a fundamental shift in how money moves around the world.
The stakes are considerable. The $240 billion stablecoin market, projected to reach $3.7 trillion by 2030, has emerged as critical financial infrastructure largely outside formal regulatory frameworks. Nearly all major stablecoins peg voluntarily to the dollar, creating a curious phenomenon: private companies building elaborate technology to make American currency work better globally than existing payment systems.
This development comes as America’s monetary hegemony faces its most serious challenge in generations. China’s digital yuan initiatives, BRICS alternative payment systems, and growing reluctance among trading partners to transact in dollars signal a coordinated effort to circumvent American financial influence.
Stablecoins offer America’s most effective response. They expand dollar accessibility globally while preserving the transparency and rule-of-law advantages that make the American financial system attractive. The GENIUS Act would formalize this system, establishing reserve requirements, audit standards and consumer protections that make dollar-backed digital assets both safer and more attractive than alternatives.
Yet currency infrastructure alone cannot suffice. The current approach of applying 20th-century regulations to 21st-century technology has produced predictable results: innovation migrating to jurisdictions with clearer and more welcoming rules.
The November federal court ruling that vacated the SEC’s expanded dealer definition illustrates the problem. Regulators had stretched statutory language so far beyond original intent that judicial intervention became inevitable.
Digital asset platforms integrate functions that traditional finance deliberately separates, creating new efficiencies alongside new risks. Forcing these platforms into regulatory categories designed for different business models produces neither clarity nor protection. Comprehensive market structure legislation would establish bespoke registration frameworks that actually correspond to how these businesses operate, something the crypto ecosystem has been advocating for years.
The integration imperative here is crucial. U.S. financial supremacy in the 20th century derived not from any single innovation but from systematic coordination across monetary policy, market regulation and institutional oversight. Today’s challenge demands similar coherence. Digital dollar infrastructure without a proper market structure leaves innovation vulnerable to regulatory uncertainty. Market structure reform without stablecoin clarity limits the global reach of American monetary policy.
International competition intensifies this urgency. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, the U.K.’s stablecoin framework, and similar initiatives across Asia represent direct challenges to American leadership in financial technology. These frameworks may not be superior to what America could construct, but they exist, which is often a decisive advantage in attracting global investment and innovation.
Indeed, there is another step that American elected officials can take to ensure that the promise of crypto isn’t undermined: pass Rep. Tom Emmer’s legislation prohibiting the development in the United States of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). While several other countries have discussed such a rollout, American lawmakers should embrace our domestic privacy ideals and broad anti-surveillance sentiment by supporting this important legislation.
The Senate’s 68-30 passage of the GENIUS Act suggests growing political recognition of crypto’s policy potency and the realities of international competition. Even skeptical Democrats acknowledge the state-of-play, with Senator Mark Warner (D.-VA) recently observing, that if American lawmakers fail to shape cryptocurrency regulation, «others will—and not in ways that serve our interests or democratic values.»
President Trump’s commitment to sign legislation before the August recess creates both opportunity and deadline. The political foundation appears solid: bipartisan support, industry consensus on key principles, and competitive pressure that occasionally motivates effective governance.
Yet significant obstacles remain. Congressional capacity for technical legislation is limited in a heated partisan political climate, and the temptation to pursue symbolic rather than systematic reform runs strong. The complexity of integrating stablecoin regulation with broader market structure reform demands precisely the kind of patient, coordinated policymaking that American politics sometimes struggles to produce.
The choice facing Congress is ultimately straightforward: lead the development of global digital finance infrastructure or cede that role to competitors. For the first time in years, the economic logic, political momentum, and strategic necessity align. Whether American lawmakers can capitalize on this convergence will determine not merely the fate of cryptocurrency regulation, but America’s role in the next generation of global finance.
The 1930s regulatory framework served America well for nearly a century. Its digital successor, if properly constructed, could serve even longer.
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U.S. Banking Regulators Issue Crypto ‘Safekeeping’ Statement, Not Pushing New Policy

The Federal Reserve and other U.S. banking agencies issued another statement on the proper handling of crypto assets on Monday, outlining the appropriate policies that need to be followed for banks engaging in the «safekeeping» of customers’ digital assets.
The statement sent out from the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency made clear that these latest considerations do not represent a new policy push.
The trio of agencies set out to clarify that properly keeping such assets involves «controlling the cryptographic keys associated with the crypto-asset in a manner that complies with applicable laws and regulations.»
Apart from cryptographic key management, the seven-page memo outlined some of the demands of money-laundering controls, risk-management oversight, software knowledge and audits.
«This statement discusses how existing laws, regulations and risk-management principles apply to this activity, and does not create any new supervisory expectations,» the agencies said.
The U.S. banking regulators have had a tumultuous relationship with the digital assets space, having issued guidance during the previous administration of President Joe Biden that constrained bankers from easily doing business with crypto firms. But the regulators under President Donald Trump have rolled back that guidance.
The latest sentiments from the agencies come at the start of the U.S. House of Representatives’ self-described Crypto Week in which the lawmakers are expected to approve multiple crypto bills in an effort toward establishing formal U.S. digital assets regulations.
Read More: Former Bitfury Exec Gould Confirmed to Take Over U.S. Banking Agency OCC
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