By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Cryptocurrency prices are down across the board over the last 24 hours amid a wider risk asset sell-off triggered by deepening U.S.-China trade tensions.

The White House said China now “faces up to a 245% tariff on imports” and imposed new restrictions on chip exports to the country. Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 2.2% while the broader market, measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, declined 3.75%.

Nasdaq 100 futures are also down, losing more than 1% while S&P 500 futures dropped 0.65%. While bitcoin has remained notably stable as the trade war escalated, some metrics suggest the bull run may have ended.

The largest cryptocurrency slipped below its 200-day simple moving average on March 9, suggesting “the token’s recent steep decline qualifies this as a bear market cycle starting in late March,” Coinbase Institutional said in a note

A risk-adjusted performance measured in standard deviations known as the Z-Score shows the bull cycle ended in late February, with subsequent activity seen as neutral, according to Coinbase Institutional’s global head of research, David Duong.

Still, the resilience cryptocurrency prices have shown is “undoubtedly good for the market,” as it lets traders “look more seriously at using premium to hedge — supporting the case for allocating into spot,” said Jake O., an OTC trader at crypto market maker Wintermute.

“In response, several prime brokers have shifted their short-term models from underweight to neutral on risk assets, noting that the next move will likely be driven by ‘real’ data,” Jake O. Said in an emailed statement.

That “real data” is coming in soon enough, with the U.S. Census Bureau set to release March retail sales data, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivering a speech on economic outlook. Tomorrow, the U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data and the Census Bureau releases residential construction data, while the ECB is expected to cut interest rates.

The shakiness in risk assets has benefited gold. The precious metal is up around 26.5% year-to-date to above $3,300 per troy ounce, contrasting with the U.S. Dollar Index’s 9% drop. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

April 16: HashKey Chain (HSK) mainnet upgrade enhances network stability and fee control capabilities.

April 16, 9:30 a.m.: Spot solana (SOL) ETFs with support for staking rewards, from asset managers Purpose, Evolve, CI and 3iQ, are expected to begin trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

April 17: EigenLayer (EIGEN) activates slashing on Ethereum mainnet, enforcing penalties for operator misconduct.

April 18: Pepecoin (PEP), a layer-1, proof-of-work blockchain, undergoes its second halving, reducing block rewards to 15,625 PEP per block.

April 20, 11 p.m.: BNB Chain (BNB) — opBNB mainnet hardfork.

April 21: Coinbase Derivatives will list XRP futures pending approval by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Macro

April 16, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases March retail sales data.

Retail Sales MoM Est. 1.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%

Retail Sales YoY Prev. 3.1%

April 16, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada releases its latest interest-rate decision, followed by a press conference 45 minutes later.

Policy Interest Rate Est. 2.75% vs. Prev. 2.75%

April 16, 1:30 p.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will deliver an “Economic Outlook” speech. Livestream link.

April 17, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Census Bureau releases March new residential construction data.

Housing Starts Est. 1.42M vs. Prev. 1.501M

Housing Starts MoM Prev. 11.2%

April 17, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended April 12.

Initial Jobless Claims Est. 225K vs. Prev. 223K

April 17, 7:30 p.m.: Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications releases March consumer price index (CPI) data.

Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.2% vs. Prev. 3%

Inflation Rate MoM Prev. -0.1%

Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.7%

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

April 22: Tesla (TSLA), post-market

April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

GMX DAO is discussing the establishment of a GMX Reserve on Solana, which would involve bridging $500,000 in GMX to the Solana network and transferring the funds to the GMX-Solana Treasury.

Treasure DAO is discussing handing authority to the core contributor team to wind down and shut down Treasure Chain infrastructure on ZKsync and manage the primary MAGIC-ETH protocol-owned Liquidity pool given the “crucial financial situation” of the protocol.

April 16, 7 a.m.: Aergo to host an ask me anything (AMA) session on the future of decentralized artificial intelligence and the project.

April 16, 3 p.m.: Zcash to host a town hall on LockBox distribution & governance.

April 17, 11 a.m.: Starknet to host a governance call to discuss how to improve Cairo and the “overall dev experience.”

Unlocks

April 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.01% of its circulating supply worth $25.77 million.

April 18: Official Trump (TRUMP) to unlock 20.25% of its circulating supply worth $323.14 million.

April 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.65% of its circulating supply worth $84 million.

April 18: Official Melania Meme (MELANIA) to unlock 6.73% of its circulating supply worth $11.25 million.

April 18: UXLINK (UXLINK) to unlock 11.09% of its circulating supply worth $17.19 million.

April 18: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.37% of its circulating supply worth $9.72 million.

April 22: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $119.1 million.

Token Launches

April 16: Badger (BADGER), Balancer (BAL), Beta Finance (BETA), Cortex (CTXC), Cream Finance (CREAM), Firo (FIRO), Kava Lend (KAVA), NULS (NULS), Prosper (PROS), Status (SNT), TROY (TROY), UniLend Finance (UFT), VIDT DAO (VIDT), and aelf (ELF) to be delisted from Binance.

April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens.

Conferences:

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Day 3 of 3: Morocco WEB3FEST GITEX Edition (Marrakech)

Day 2 of 2: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)

Day 2 of 2: World Financial Innovation Series 2025 (Hanoi, Vietnam)

Day 2 of 3: NexTech Week Tokyo

April 22-24: Money20/20 Asia (Bangkok)

April 23: Crypto Horizons 2025 (Dubai)

April 23-24: Blockchain Forum 2025 (Moscow)

April 24: Bitwise’s Investor Day for Bitcoin Standard Corporations (New York)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

A record $12 billion worth of stablecoins were transferred on the Solana blockchain in March, a 445% increase from the $2.2 billion reported in March 2024

USDC is the dominant stablecoin at 75% of the ecosystem’s total stablecoin market cap, according to DefiLlama data.

Stablecoin supply doubled from $6 billion between early January and April 15, coinciding with a drop in speculative activity (such as memecoin trading) on the blockchain.

Derivatives Positioning

Open interest in offshore BTC perpetuals and futures fell as prices retreated from $86K to nearly $83K. The drop shows lack of participation in the price decline.

ETH, XRP and SOL perpetual funding rates remained negative in a sign of bias for short, or bearish, positions.

The annualized BTC and ETH CME futures basis remains rangebound between 5% and 8%, showcasing caution among institutional players.

Options tied to BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF showed bias for bullish directional exposure to the upside in longer maturity options, but at the same time, priced short-term downside risks more aggressively.

On Deribit, positioning remains defensive, exhibiting a bias for short and near-dated options.

Market Movements:

BTC is down 0.26% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $83,823.34 (24hrs: -2.7%)

ETH is down 1.23% at $1,575.79 (24hrs: -3.31%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 1.67% at 2,410.72 (24hrs: -3.75%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 16 bps at 3.02%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0079% (8.6494% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.59% at 99.63

Gold is up 3.31% at $3,325.20/oz

Silver is up 2.58% at $33.06/oz

Nikkei 225 closed -1.01% at 33,920.40

Hang Seng closed -1.91% at 21,056.98

FTSE is down 0.44% at 8,212.76

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.79% at 4,931.25

DJIA closed on Tuesday -0.38% at 40,368.96

S&P 500 closed -0.17% at 5,396.63

Nasdaq closed unchanged at 16,823.17

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.84% at 24,067.90

S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,337.88

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.34%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% at 5,395.75

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.18% at 18,736.50

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 2% at 40,531.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 63.95 (0.17%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.1881 (-1.00%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 890 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $44.7

Total Fees: 6.33 BTC / $484,137

CME Futures Open Interest: 135,635 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 25.7 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 7.28%

Technical Analysis

The Ichimoku cloud, a popular momentum indicator, is capping upside as discussed early this week.

A turn lower may embolden bears, potentially yielding a re-test of the psychological support level of $80K.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $310.72 (-0.23%), down 1.43% at $306.27 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $175.57 (-0.57%), down 1.36% at $173.18

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.45 (-2.28%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.58 (-2.86%), down 2.38% at $12.28

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $6.55 (-6.56%), down 1.37% at $6.46

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $6.85 (-2.97%), down 2.19% at $6.70

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.28 (-6.43%), down 1.65% at $7.16

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $11.98 (-5.67%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.40 (+0.41%), up 2.62% at $35.30

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $38.01 (-3.6%), up 5.21% at $39.99

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $76.4 million

Cumulative net flows: $35.5 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$14.2 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.27 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.35 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Funding rates in perpetual futures tied to the privacy-focused token monero (XMR) remain deeply negative, indicating a dominance of bearish short positions.

The notable bias for shorts means a potential upswing in prices, as suggested by technical charts, could trigger a short squeeze, leading to bullish volatility boom.

While You Were Sleeping

China’s First-Quarter GDP Tops Estimates at 5.4% as Growth Momentum Continues Amid Tariff Worries (CNBC): Despite a strong first-quarter GDP, China’s statistics bureau urged policies to boost domestic demand, noting U.S. export share fell to 14.7% in 2024 from 19.2% in 2018.

Cardano’s ADA Leads Majors Slide Amid Bitcoin Profit-Taking; ProShares Amends XRP ETF (CoinDesk): Bitcoin selling by large investors has eased, with daily sales dropping from 800,000 BTC in February to about 300,000 BTC, as they realize losses, according to CryptoQuant.

Dogecoin Whales Accumulate, SOL Hints at Consolidation as Market Takes a Breather (CoinDesk): A crypto market rebound may support further gains, but confirmation likely hinges on consolidation above the 200-day moving average near $2.97 trillion, says FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich.

OKX to Expand to the U.S., Establish Regional Headquarters in California (CoinDesk): In February, the Seychelles-based exchange paid the DOJ $500 million to settle charges it had operated in the U.S. without a money transmitter license.

Hongkong Post Suspends Goods Mail Services to US (Reuters): Hongkong Post will halt sea mail of goods to the U.S. immediately and suspend air mail from April 27, calling the end of duty-free treatment for low-value parcels a “bullying act.”

Even Without Add-Ons, Trump’s 10% Tariffs Will Have a Sting (The New York Times): Trump’s 10% baseline tariff may seem modest, but Oxford Economics warns the full package could shrink global trade by 5% — a drop comparable to 2020’s pandemic shock.

In the Ether

Bitcoin’s (BTC) on-chain metrics are flashing a key signal once again, as the short-term holder (STH) MVRV ratio fell to 0.82 — a level historically associated with market stress and capitulation, according to Glassnode data.

This metric compares the market value (current BTC price) to the realized price (average cost basis of coins held by short-term holders). A STH MVRV value below 1.0 indicates that recent buyers are, on average, underwater, holding unrealized losses. At 0.82, this means short-term holders are down roughly 18% on average, a sign that many are experiencing significant pain.

This level closely mirrors previous MVRV cycle lows: 0.84 in August 2024 and 0.77 in November 2022, both of which preceded market bottoms and trend reversals.

Historically, such deep MVRV drawdowns have marked periods where weak hands capitulate and smart money accumulates.

According to Glassnode data, since February, long-term holders (investors holding for 155 days or more) have increased their cohort supply by approximately 500,000 BTC.

In contrast, short-term holders have distributed over 300,000 BTC, driven by a mix of profit-taking and capitulation. This imbalance indicates that long-term holders are accumulating more BTC than short-term holders are selling.

The crypto bull run may have ended, with the market poised for a winter characterized by prolonged losses and stagnation, according to Coinbase’s institutional arm.

«The 200DMA model on bitcoin does suggest that the token’s recent steep decline qualifies this as a bear market cycle starting in late March. But the same exercise performed on the COIN50 index (which includes the top 50 tokens by market capitalization) shows the asset class as a whole has been unequivocally trading in bear market territory since the end of February,» David Duong, global head of research at Coinbase Institutional, said in a note published Monday.

Bitcoin slipped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 9 and has since established a foothold below the same in a sign of a long-term bearish shift in momentum. The 200-day SMA is widely tracked to gauge long-term trends, with persistent moves above the same, representing a bull market and vice versa.

Duong noted this observation while addressing the challenges of identifying a crypto bear market, where 20% or more corrections are routine. In contrast, a 20% decline is typically used to define bear markets in stock markets.

The report argued that the arbitrary 20% often fails to account for a dent in investor sentiment and resulting portfolio adjustments spurred by smaller, more intense sell-offs.

«We’ve seen in the past that sentiment-driven declines can often trigger defensive portfolio adjustments, despite not meeting the arbitrary 20% threshold. In other words, we believe that bear markets fundamentally represent regime shifts in market structure – characterized by deteriorating fundamentals and shrinking liquidity – rather than just their percentage declines,» Duong noted.

In addition to the 200-day SMA, Duong highlighted bitcoin’s risk-adjusted performance measured in standard deviations (z-score) relative to the average performance over the previous 365 days as another effective method for identifying crypto bear markets.

«Our [z-score] model indicates that the most recent bull cycle ended in late February. But it has since classified all subsequent activity as «neutral,» highlighting its potential lag in rapidly changing market dynamics,» Duong said, calling for a defensive stance on risk asses for the time being.

The impending winter may be more brutal for alternative cryptocurrencies considering the slowdown in the venture capital (VC) funding.

While BTC set new highs early this year, well above the 2021 top of $70K, the bullish trend failed to inspire more risk taking in the VC space, leaving the overall funding 50%-60% below 2021-22 levels.

Duong said that the crypto market «may find a floor in mid-to-late 2Q25 – setting up a better 3Q25.»