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Crypto Daybook Americas: Trump Trade Tease Lifts Market While Movement’s Fees Evaporate
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market is a sea of green as traders look past the stagflation specter raised by the Fed on Wednesday and cheer President Donald Trump’s hint of a big trade-deal announcement with a major trading partner.
Bitcoin jumped 2.6%, nearing $100,000, even with the WSJ reporting that the announcement could be more of a framework for talks than actual confirmation of an agreement. The wider market put in bigger gains, with XRP, ETH, ADA, DOGE and several other coins rising 4% to 6%. Tokens associated with memecoin projects, layer 1s and DeFi are leading the market higher.
In key news, cumulative inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have hit an all-time high of $40.62 billion, signaling continued institutional adoption. (Check Chart of the Day.)
On Thursday, Arizona became the second U.S. state to pass a bitcoin reserve bill. The regulation allows the state to take ownership of abandoned coins in the event that the owner ignores messages sent within three years. It also lets the state make BTC investments.
An ether whale ICO participant sold 5,200 ETH at $9.54 million, extending a series of recent liquidations. The whale still holds 8,300 ETH ($15.28 million).
Decentralized layer-1 blockchain Avalanche’s C-Chain registered the highest amount of transactions in two years, with the median gas cost of just $0.00078. The AVAX token traded 7% higher at $21 at press time.
Stripe unveiled a new feature called Stablecoin Financial Accounts, powered by Bridge, unlocking access to dollar-denominated services in over 100 countries.
On the macro front, the first quarter U.S. unit labor cost data will be watched by traders for signs of sticky wage price inflation that could potentially delay the Fed rate cuts. Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto:
- May 8: Judge John G. Koeltl will sentence Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of the now-defunct crypto lending firm Celsius Network, at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
- May 12, 1 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.: A U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable on «Tokenization: Moving Assets Onchain: Where TradFi and DeFi Meet» will be held at the SEC’s headquarters in Washington.
- Macro
- May 8, 7 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision. The Monetary Policy Report Press Conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
- Bank Rate Est. 4.25% vs. Prev. 4.5%
- May 8, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 3.
- Initial Jobless Claims Est. 230K vs. Prev. 241K
- May 8, 10 a.m.: President Donald Trump will reportedly unveil the framework of a trade deal with the U.K. at a White House press conference.
- May 9-12: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to Switzerland.
- May 8, 7 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision. The Monetary Policy Report Press Conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Arbitrum DAO is voting on whether to put the last $10.7 million from its 35 million ARB diversification plan into three low‑risk, dollar‑based funds from WisdomTree, Spiko and Franklin Templeton. Voting ends on May 8.
- Compound DAO is voting on which new collateral type to prioritize on Compound V3. Voting ends May 8.
- May 8, 10 a.m.: Balancer and Euler to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
- May 15, 10 a.m.: Moca Network to host a Discord townhall session discussing network updates.
- Unlocks
- May 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $8.08 million.
- May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $35.66 million.
- May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $57.45 million.
- May 13: WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.41% of its circulating supply worth $1.14 billion.
- May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $17.7 million.
- Token Launches
- May 8: AIXBT to be listed on Binance.US.
- May 8: Space and Time (SXT) to be listed on Binance, MEXC, BingX, KuCoin, Bitget and others.
- May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
- Day 3 of 3: Stripe Sessions (San Francisco)
- Day 2 of 3: SALT’s Bermuda Digital Finance Forum 2025 (Hamilton, Bermuda)
- May 9-10: Stanford Blockchain Governance Summit (San Francisco)
- May 11-17: Canada Crypto Week (Toronto)
- May 12-13: Dubai FinTech Summit
- May 12-13: Filecoin (FIL) Developer Summit (Toronto)
- May 12-13: Latest in DeFi Research (TLDR) Conference (New York)
- May 12-14: ACI’s 9th Annual Legal, Regulatory, and Compliance Forum on Fintech & Emerging Payment Systems (New York)
- May 13: Blockchain Futurist Conference (Toronto)
- May 13: ETHWomen (Toronto)
- May 14-16: CoinDesk’s Consensus 2025 (Toronto)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
- $3, just $3.
- That’s all Movement network earned in fees over the past 24 hours, DeFiLlama data shows, the lowest in a week for the embattled chain once valued at $1 billion.
- Daily DEX volumes have cratered below $500K, a dramatic fall from earlier exuberance that saw the network process more than $2 million a day.
- The slide comes days after CoinDesk reported irregularities with how the MOVE token was distributed and supplied to trading firms.
- Ironically, the MOVE token launched before the chain existed, raising millions via private sales while the actual blockchain infrastructure lagged far behind.
- The project handed out 66 million MOVE tokens (5% of supply) to a market-making firm called Rentech, which dumped nearly all of it for $38 million.
- Founder Rushi Manche was terminated on May 7, just days after being suspended. He admitted to “zero oversight” and blamed bad-faith advisers for the project’s collapse in X posts following the CoinDesk report.
- MOVE has fallen over 85% from its peak of $1.45 in December 2024 to just 15 cents.
- With no trust, no traction and, now, almost no fees, Movement has turned into the cautionary tale of 2025 — a billion-dollar paper promise with a $3 reality.
Derivatives Positioning
- BTC and ETH perpetual funding rates rose close to an annualized 10%, signaling a strengthening bullish mood in the market.
- BTC, ETH futures premium on the CME still remain under 10%.
- On Deribit, bitcoin and ether options risk reversals show a bullish bias for calls across multiple time frames.
- Notable block trades include a short position in the $85K BTC put expiring in June and a calendar spread involving calls at strikes $140K and $170K, expiring on Sept. 26 and Dec. 26, respectively.
Market Movements:
- BTC is up 3.49% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $99,620.26 (24hrs: +2.77%)
- ETH is up 7.76% at $1,939.15 (24hrs: +5.11%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 5.75% at 2,854.54 (24hrs: +3.81%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 bps at 2.894%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0048% (5.2242% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.48% at 100.09
- Gold is down 1.25% at $3,343.61/oz
- Silver is down 0.25% at $32.40/oz
- Nikkei 225 closed +0.41% at 36,928.63
- Hang Seng closed +0.37% at 22,775.92
- FTSE is up 0.39% at 8,592.98
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.21% at 5,293.07
- DJIA closed on Wednesday +0.7% at 41,113.97
- S&P 500 closed +0.43% at 5,631.28
- Nasdaq closed +0.27% at 17,738.16
- S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.75% at 25,161.18
- S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.2% at 2,512.07
- U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 5 bps at 4.315%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.03% at 5,170.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.4% at 20,240.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.82% at 41,552.00
Bitcoin Stats:
- BTC Dominance: 65.08 (-0.44%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01942 (4.02%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 909 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $53.34
- Total Fees: 6.64 BTC / $661,908.40
- CME Futures Open Interest: 142,255 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 29.5 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 8.37%
Technical Analysis
- The XRP-ETH ratio has dived out of the year-to-date ascending trendline.
- The breakdown suggests ether outperformance relative to XRP in the days ahead.
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $392.48 (+1.78%), up 5.35% at $413.49 in pre-market
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $196.56 (-0.17%), up 4.77% at $205.94
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.49 (+2.28%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.33 (+1.37%), up 5.55% at $14.07
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.84 (-0.25%), up 5.1% at $8.24
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.90 (-1%), up 5.28% at $9.37
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.03 (-0.74%), up 5.23% at $8.45
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.59 (+0.34%), up 5.89% at $15.45
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.05 (-0.12%), up 4.99% at $34.70
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $40.01 (+1.34%), up 0.25% at $40.11
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net flow: $142.3 million
- Cumulative net flows: $40.68 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.17 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$21.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $2.48 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 3.45 million
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- The chart shared by pseudonymous analyst Checkmate shows the cumulative inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have hit a record high above $40 billion.
- Early this week, BlackRock’s IBIT surpassed the SPDR gold ETF in year-to-date inflows.
While You Were Sleeping
- Trump to Announce Trade-Deal Framework With Britain (The Wall Street Journal): The U.K. is seeking relief from steep U.S. tariffs on steel and autos in exchange for curbing a tax on digital services, according to people familiar with the talks.
- India and Pakistan May Have an Off-Ramp After Their Clash. Will They Take It? (New York Times): India and Pakistan signaled room for de-escalation after Indian strikes killed over 20 in Pakistan, with both sides portraying their responses as limited and back-channel talks reportedly underway.
- Binance Founder CZ Confirms He Has Applied for Trump Pardon After Prison Term (CoinDesk): CZ said his lawyers had applied for a presidential pardon after media reports in March wrongly claimed he had already done so.
- Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Will Hit $1M by 2028 as U.S.-China Craft Hollow Trade Deal (CoinDesk): The former BitMEX CEO predicted bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2028, citing Treasury-driven liquidity and geopolitical shifts while dismissing U.S.-China trade deals as largely symbolic.
- The EU Wants to End All Russian Gas Imports. Moscow’s Friends in the Bloc Say It’s a ‘Serious Mistake’ (CNBC): The European Commission’s plan to end all energy imports from Russia by 2027 was condemned by Hungary and Slovakia.
- Bankers Are Bouncing Back to Life as Hunger for Junk Debt Soars (Bloomberg): Some U.S. investors are moving into European junk bonds to diversify amid tariff-related uncertainty, drawn by expectations of faster rate cuts and demand for companies insulated from trade risks.
In the Ether
Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to hit a new record high, with investment flows now the dominant market driver, according to Standard Chartered (STAN).
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen $5.3 billion in inflows over the past three weeks, the investment bank said in emailed comments Thursday.
Adjusting for hedge fund basis trades, net real flow is estimated at over $4 billion, the bank said. The basis trade is a strategy that exploits the difference between the spot price of bitcoin and the price of the cryptocurrency in the futures market.
Strategy (MSTR) has increased its holdings to 555,450 BTC, or 2.6% of total future supply, which is locked at 21 million BTC. The company’s plan to raise $84 billion to buy more of the world’s largest cryptocurrency could bring its stash to over 6%, wrote Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered.
Next week’s 13F filings may reveal further institutional adoption, Standard Chartered said. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign fund already holds BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF (IBIT), and both the Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank have disclosed positions in MSTR.
New Hampshire passed a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill this week, the first U.S. state to do so, which signals growing policy alignment, the report added.
Given these developments, a second-quarter bitcoin target of $120,000 may be too conservative, the bank said, citing its previous forecast.
The bank has a year-end bitcoin price target of $200,000.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $101,000 at publication time.
Read more: Bitcoin to Hit New All-Time High Around $120K in Q2, Standard Chartered Says
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
Bitcoin is back in six figures, continuing yet another of its famous zigs when most were expecting a zag.
To review, the world’s largest crypto first pushed through $100,000 in December as it rallied hard following Donald Trump’s November election victory. The price eventually rose above $109,000 in the hours prior to the Trump inauguration on Jan. 20.
With the bulls furiously revising their upside price targets higher, things began to crack at that moment. What followed in ensuing weeks was a steady decline, which reached its denouement at just under $75,000 in the panic following Trump’s early April announcements of punitive tariffs against U.S. trading partners.
The carnage in many altcions was far worse. Solana (SOL) and ether (ETH), for instance, had peak to bottom declines of more than 60%.
Prices have quickly reversed since, though, with traditional markets joining crypto in looking past the tariff shock. As with bitcoin, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both currently at higher levels than prior to Trump’s Liberation Day.
This latest push to above $100,000 appears to be due to a trade deal between the U.S. and UK.
It’s all about the flows
«The dominant story for bitcoin has changed again,» wrote Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick in a note Thursday morning. «It is now all about flows. And flows are coming in many forms.»
Kendrick took note of the well-reported story about surging inflows into the spot bitcoin ETFs of late. These are sometimes dismissed thanks to a sizable chunk of those flows being offset by basis trades (where hedge funds put on an equal short of bitcoin futures and bank a small yield). Kendrick, however, argued that basis trades have barely moved higher during this latest bout of inflows, suggesting real money is moving into the ETFs.
The 13F institutional reporting of not just spot BTC ETF holdings, but also ownership of major corporate bitcoin holder Strategy (MSTR) will begin rolling in one week from now, and Kendrick expects further confirmation of important players boosting their allocations.
«I apologize that my $120,000 second quarter target may be too low,» concluded Kendrick.
The Senate’s Republican majority leader, John Thune, took to the chamber floor on Thursday morning to make a case for moving forward with stablecoin legislation — marking his first significant foray into the topic of crypto as Republicans grow frustrated with keeping what was once a bipartisan effort on track.
«Stablecoins should be made in the USA, but we can’t lead in innovation if there’s no clarity for the innovators,» Thune said in his speech on the Senate Floor, delivered in the runup to an afternoon vote meant to advance the debate on the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act that would establish a U.S. regime to regulate stablecoin issuers.
«Americans are already using stablecoins and will continue to use them with or without legislation,» Thune argued, saying that the bill will establish safeguards against money laundering and threats to national security, in addition to protecting consumers with reserve requirements.
«The GENIUS Act is by no means the last word on digital assets,» the South Dakota lawmaker said, but he characterized it as a «first step toward bringing digital assets into our financial system.»
Though many Democrats expressed earlier support for the legislation and helped move it out of the Senate Banking Committee with an 18-6 vote, they’ve have thrown up loud objections to moving forward, focusing on President Donald Trump’s personal crypto interests and the potential conflicts posed by those business ties. Senator Ruben Gallego has been in the vanguard of this backlash, despite his close ties to the industry, which supported his 2024 Senate campaign with $10 million in advertising paid for by an affiliate of the crypto-backed Fairshake political action committee.
The Senate is steaming toward a 1:45 p.m. Thursday so-called cloture vote, which would open debate in the legislation — a back-and-forth which itself could occupy days of floor time. But that next step would need several Democrats to pass the 60-vote required margin. Alongside Gallego, several of the Democrats who voted for the bill in committee have said they would oppose the cloture vote.
Thune made the case that Democrats should allow the bill to move to that stage so that the changes they want can be hashed out in the open.
Lawmakers and staffers in the Senate worked overnight into the early hours of Thursday fielding further concerns from Democratic members, leaving some expressing doubt about how successful the vote will be on what’s now the sixth version of this stablecoin bill.
The House of Representatives has been working on a similar bill that would eventually needed to be melded with this one before it can become law, but the Senate has long been the bottleneck for advancing crypto bills, and it promises to be the more difficult venue for clearing the industry’s efforts.
«We have the opportunity to move the ball forward today,» Thune said. «I encourage my colleagues to take it.»
Read More: Dems Stall Stablecoin Bill, Jeopardizing More Important Crypto Regulation Bill
Bitcoin $120K Target for 2Q May Be Too Conservative: Standard Chartered
Bitcoin Tops $100K for First Time in 3 Months; Are Upside Targets Too Low?
Senate Republicans Making Plea to Get on With Stablecoin Debate
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