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Crypto Daybook Americas: Trump Tariff Threat Casts Shadow Over Buoyant Bitcoin Price

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin is building momentum, rising over 2% on the day to over $84,000, with memecoins leading the market higher, followed by tokens associated with artificial intelligence and gaming. In traditional markets, gold set another record, surpassing $3,140, and futures linked to major U.S. equity indices are pointing to a positive open.

President Donald Trump pledged a «very kind» yet firm approach toward all trading partners ahead of Wednesday’s planned reciprocal tariffs announcement.

Still, market flows reveal nervousness likely stemming from tariff uncertainty. An aggressive move could ratchet up inflation expectations, which would lower risk asset prices, including cryptocurrencies.

Reports suggest that the Treasury and other federal agencies are expected to disclose their holdings of bitcoin and other tokens on April 5, That’s in accordance with the March 11 document that called for such an action within 30 days of Trump’s March 6 decision to issue an executive order to form a strategic crypto reserve.

Still, some indicators call for caution. For instance, bitcoin’s one-year percentage change is approaching the negative zone, according to crypto research firm Alphractal. «Out of the four times this has happened, three led to bearish movements, while one had no significant effect,» the firm said.

BTC’s apparent demand by 30-day change, derived from the flow of coins into exchanges and adjusted for factors including net outflows, now shows the most negative values in over a year, according to data source CryptoQuant.

Speaking of the broader market, decentralized AI data liquidity network Vana unveiled the VRC-20 data token standard for fair and transparent data token transactions. «For data markets to work, tokens must be reliable, secure, and useful. As a universal standard for data-backed tokens, VRC-20 delivers this by ensuring fair and transparent data token trading,» Vana said on X.

Elsewhere, the MOVE Index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility for the U.S. Treasury notes, is rising. A volatile Treasury market often causes financial tightening worldwide, leading to reduced demand for risk assets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

April 1: ONINO (ONI) will have its mainnet launch.

April 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing for marking up various measures, including H.R. 2392, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025, and H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Livestream link.

April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) will have its mainnet launch.

April 5: The alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.

April 9, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing about how the U.S. securities laws could be updated to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.

Macro

April 1, 9:00 a.m.: S&P Global releases Brazil March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.

Manufacturing PMI Prev. 53

April 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases Canada March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.

Manufacturing PMI Prev. 47.8

April 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Final) U.S. March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.

Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.8 vs. Prev. 52.7

April 1, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases February JOLTs report (job openings, hires, and separations).

Job Openings Est. 7.63M vs. Prev. 7.74M

Job Quits Prev. 3.266M

April 1, 10:00 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases March U.S. manufacturing sector data.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 50.3

April 2: Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs will get announced.

April 2, 4:30 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech titled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking.” Livestream link.

April 3, 12:01 a.m.: The 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts announced March 26 becomes effective.

April 3, 12:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech titled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications.” Livestream link.

April 4, 11:25 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech titled “Economic Outlook.” Livestream link.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

No earnings scheduled.

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Arbitrum DAO is voting on converting 15 million ARB into stablecoins to be managed via a “33/33/33 split among Karpatkey, Avantgarde & Myso, and Gauntlet.” It’s also voting on allocating 10 million ARB into “on-chain strategies designed to generate yield while safeguarding the principal.” Voting ends April 3.

Sky DAO is discussing increasing the Smart Burn Engine (SBE) rate after a recent executive proposal “resulted in substantial increase to net revenue.”

Unlocks

April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $143.15 million.

April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $12.85 million.

April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $14.07 million.

April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $112.67 million.

April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $20.23 million.

Token Listings

April 1: Bybit to delist CEL, MXM, ZEND, CTT, BONUS, LGX, PLT

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

April 2-3: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference (Bangkok)

April 2-5: ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon (Romania)

April 3-6: BitBlockBoom (Dallas)

April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival

April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week

April 10: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Nashville)

April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

A hacker involved in February’s multimillion exploit of the zkLend DeFi protocol said they inadvertently sent their stolen funds to a phishing site posing as mixing service Tornado Cash.

The hacker lost all 2,930 ETH stolen from zkLend to the apparent phishing attack, according to Lookchain and blockchain data.

They then sent an on-chain message via Etherscan to zkLend apologizing for the «havoc and losses caused,» claimed to no longer hold the stolen funds and urged zkLend to redirect recovery efforts toward the phishing site’s operators.

Market watchers expressed skepticism, suggesting the alleged phishing site was set up by the hacker in an attempt to shift scrutiny away from the attackers’ known wallets to the address that purportedly ended up thieving the thief.

zkLend responded by requesting the hacker to return any remaining funds. The protocol has been actively working on fund recovery, having launched a «Recovery Portal» on March 5, to compensate affected users, and is collaborating with security teams, centralized exchanges and authorities to trace the stolen assets.

Derivatives Positioning

Open interest in futures tied to TON, TRX, HYPE, SHIB and XMR has increased in the past 24 hours while the remaining major coins, including BTC, saw a drop in open bets.

Perpetual funding rates for BTC, ETH and most other top coins remain below an annualized 5%, indicating cautiously bullish sentiment.

Deribit’s BTC and ETH options continue to show a bias for short- and near-dated puts with bullishness seen only from July expiry.

Market Movements

BTC is up 2.19% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $84,236.71 (24hrs: +2.47%)

ETH is up 3.34% at $1,880.62(24hrs: +3.34%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 3.16% at 2,579.16 (24hrs: +5.15%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 10 bps at 3.03%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0032% (3.5150% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at 104.12

Gold is up 1.18% at $3,159.80/oz

Silver is up 0.99% at $34.80/oz

Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 35,624.48

Hang Seng closed +0.38% at 23,206.84

FTSE is up 0.9% at 8,660.19

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.2% at 5,311.30

DJIA closed on Monday +1% at 42,001.76

S&P 500 closed +0.55% at 5,611.85

Nasdaq closed -0.14% at 17,299.29

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.64% at 24,917.50

S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.96% at 2,406.22

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 3 bps at 4.185%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 5,656.00

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.22% at 19,482.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.12% at 42,207.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 62.18 (-0.21%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02236 (1.31%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 835.3 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $46.93

Total Fees: 4.9 BTC / $406,290

CME Futures Open Interest: 135,210 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 26.8 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 7.6%

Technical Analysis

BTC has moved past the yellow trendline, confirming an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout to suggest the path of least resistance is on the higher side.

The 24-hour simple moving average is now trending north, indicating a renewed upward momentum.

Prices could rise toward the descending (white) trendline resistance, currently at $87,200.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $288.27 (-0.39%), up 2.54% at $295.60 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $172.23 (-0.98%), up 1.78% at $175.30

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.17 (-7.78%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.50 (-7.78%), up 2.7% at $11.81

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.12 (-3.91%), up 1.69% at $7.22

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.24 (-3.21%), up 0.83% at $7.30

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $6.72 (-6.54%), up 3.13% at $6.93

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $12.77 (-2.74%), down 2.51% at $12.80

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.20 (-1.79%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.74 (-4.39%), up 2.25% at $46.77

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: -$60.6 million

Cumulative net flows: $36.27 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: $6.4 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.43 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.41 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Tron, BNB Chain and Celo are the past year’s top three blockchains by the number of active stablecoin addresses.

Ethereum lags even though the stablecoin supply on the smart-contract blockchain recently surged to all-time high over $132 billion.

While You Were Sleeping

China Kicks Off Military Drills Near Taiwan, Warns Island’s ‘Independence’ Means War (CNBC): China said its military actions were punishment for Taiwan’s leadership, simulating multidirectional encirclement and coordinated strikes on key areas to demonstrate combat readiness.

Ethereum Reclaims No. 1 Spot as Leading DEX Chain for First Time Since September, Overtakes Solana (CoinDesk): Bearish market sentiment, particularly within the memecoin sector, led to a significant decline in activity on Solana-based platforms Raydium and Pump.fun.

Democrats Sue Trump Administration Over Election Executive Order (Reuters): The lawsuit says requiring voter citizenship proof and cutting funds for noncompliant states would unlawfully let presidents reshape election rules to protect their own political interests.

Gold Hits Record as Trump’s Trade Threats Fan Haven Demand (Bloomberg): Spot gold, up 19% in the first quarter, hit $3,149 as investors braced for retaliation over Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan, which will be unveiled Wednesday.

RBA Keeps Rates on Hold as It Points to Trade War Threat (The Wall Street Journal): Australia’s central bank warned that stiffer U.S. tariffs and rising geopolitical tensions could drag on global growth by undermining confidence and prompting households and firms to delay spending decisions.

Metaplanet Ups Bitcoin Holding to Over 4K BTC, Adds Another 696 BTC (CoinDesk): The Japanese firm paid about $97,500 per bitcoin, raising the average cost of its holdings to roughly $86,500 per coin.

In the Ether

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Bitcoin Climbs Above $110K, ‘At Crossroads’ for Next Major Move

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Bitcoin’s BTC quiet climb on Monday accelerated to its strongest price in June, rebounding from last week’s decline to near all-time high levels.

The largest crypto advanced by 3.7% over the past 24 hours, topping $110,000, and it’s changing hands by only 2% from its record prices observed in May. Ethereum’s ether ETH kept pace with a 3.8% gain during the same period, bouncing above $2,620. Native tokens of Hyperliquid HYPE and SUI SUI outperformed most large-cap cryptocurrencies, rising 7% and 4.5%, respectively.

Bitcoin’s move higher caught leveraged traders off-guard, liquidating over $110 million worth of short positions within an hour, CoinGlass data shows. Across all crypto assets, some $330 million of shorts were liquidated during the day, the most in a month. Shorts are seeking to profit from declining asset prices.

The move happened while traditional markets showed muted action, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes flat on the day. Crypto-related stocks bounced during the session to catch up with BTC’s recovery over the weekend.

«A ‘peaceful rally’ is a perfect way to describe this price action,» said well-followed analyst Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics. «Just a consistent development of higher highs and higher lows. Any signs of weakness? Buyers step in and defend the trend.»

The crypto market is now on steadier footing for a potential next leg higher after bitcoin’s 10% decline to near $100,000 and with more than $1.9 billion in liquidations across crypto derivatives over the past week, having flushed excessive leverage, Bitfinex analysts noted in a Monday report.

However, on-chain data indicates rising sell pressure from long-term holders that could overwhelm demand, the analysts added.

“Bitcoin is now at a crossroads—balanced between structural support and waning bullish momentum, waiting for its next macro cue,” the Bitfinex note added.

Those macro catalysts may come later this week, noted Jake O, OTC trader at crypto trading firm Wintermute.

«U.S. and Chinese trade representatives are scheduled to meet today, with markets likely sensitive to any headlines following last week’s positive momentum, and the data calendar remains light until Wednesday, when CPI will offer fresh insight into U.S. inflation,» he said.

UPDATE (June 9, 21:51 UTC): Adds short liquidation data from CoinGlass.

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Aptos’ APT Gains 4% on Significant Volume, Has More Potential Upside

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Aptos’ APT token rallied more than 4% on significant volume, with momentum indicators suggesting more potential upside, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.

The digital asset broke out of its consolidation phase between $4.65-$4.73, establishing strong support at $4.73 before pushing through previous resistance levels to establish a new local high, according to the model.

The token is currently 2.6% higher, trading around $4.86.

The broader market gauge, the CoinDesk CD20 was 1.75% higher at publication time.

Technical Analysis:

  • APT rallied from $4.65 to $4.85, representing a 4.3% gain with significant volume confirmation.
  • Price formed a clear consolidation pattern between $4.65-$4.73 before experiencing a decisive breakout at 09:00 with volume nearly doubling the 24-hour average.
  • Strong support established at $4.73 with subsequent price action forming an ascending channel with resistance at $4.85.
  • Substantial volume spike during the 16:00 candle (884,397 units) confirmed buyer conviction as APT pushed through previous resistance levels.
  • Price formed a distinct pattern of higher lows while encountering resistance at $4.85, which was breached during the 20:01 candle with significant volume (10,126 units).
  • Key technical development occurred at when price surged from $4.84 to $4.85 with strong volume confirmation (9,094 units).
  • Support at $4.84 held through subsequent retests, with final minutes showing decisive momentum suggesting potential continuation of the uptrend.
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Trump Media and Semler Scientific Could Be Cheapest Bitcoin Treasury Companies by This Metric

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A tsunami of new bitcoin BTC treasury companies — firms that almost exclusively dedicate themselves to accumulating bitcoin — is flooding the market.

Since all of them are more or less following Strategy’s (MSTR) playbook, questions are rising about the best ways to value them, and compare them to each other.

“The most important metric for a bitcoin treasury is the premium it trades at relative to its underlying net assets, including any operating company,” Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at bitcoin financial firm NYDIG, wrote in a June 6 report.

On the surface, that means adding up the company’s bitcoin, cash and enterprise value excluding the bitcoin stuff, and subtracting obligations such as debt and preferred stock. “It’s this premium that allows these companies to convert stock for bitcoins, effectively acting as a money changer converting shares for bitcoins,” Cipolaro said.

One of the most popular metrics, mNAV, measures a company’s valuation to its net asset value — in these cases, their bitcoin treasuries. An mNAV above 1.0 signals that investors are interested in paying a premium for exposure to the stock relative to its bitcoin stash; however, an mNAV below 1.0 means the equity is now worth less than the company’s holdings.

But mNAV alone is “woefully deficient” to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of these firms, Cipolaro said. The research report made use of other metrics such as NAV, mNAV measured by market capitalization, mNAV by enterprise value, and equity premium to NAV to provide a more complex picture.

BTC Treasury chart

The table shows, for example, that Semler Scientific’s (SMLR) and Trump Media’s (DJT) equity premium to NAV (which measures the percentage difference between a fund’s market price and its net asset value), are the lowest of the eight measured companies, coming in at -10% and -16% respectively, despite the fact that both companies have an mNAV above 1.1.

Alas, both SMLR and DJT are little-changed on Monday even as bitcoin climbs to $108,500 versus Friday evening’s $105,000 level. MSTR is higher by just shy of 5%.

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