Uncategorized
Crypto Daybook Americas: The 2 Factors That Suggest a Quarter-End BTC Price Rally

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market has steadied over the past two days, with bitcoin briefly topping the 200-day simply moving average at $84,000 early today. Wednesday’s softer-than-expected U.S. CPI release aided the sentiment by validating traders’ pricing of four interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
The past 24 hours’ recovery was led by the memecoin sector, followed by tokens of layer-1 and layer-2 blockchains as well as AI tokens, according to data source Velo.
Still, issues such as President Trump’s tariffs, U.S. recession concerns and the bond-market volatility that recently rocked risk assets, including BTC, remain to cast doubt on the sustainability of the market recovery. That said, at least two factors suggest otherwise.
The first is the quarter-end rebalancing. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down 6% and 4.8%, respectively, this quarter, while the 10-year Treasury note is up 5%. That means funds mandated to maintain a specific asset allocation mix are now overweight bonds and will probably rebalance by buying equities and selling bonds as the quarter end nears.
Those actions will push bond yields and stock prices higher and could bode well for bitcoin and the broader crypto market, given the strong correlation between BTC and the technology stocks.
The other factor is the yen, which has come under pressure since CoinDesk noted the potential for renewed crypto market stability on the back of overstretched bullish positioning in the Japanese currency. The yen, seen as a haven investment, may remain under pressure as the potential quarter-end rebalancing lifts U.S. bond yields. In other words, risk-off stemming from the JPY strength and the resulting unwinding of the yen carry trades may be over for now.
Positive net global liquidity could also grease risk-taking.
«Net global liquidity, largely due to China and the U.S., is increasing,» Two Prime, an SEC-registered investment adviser, said in a Telegram chat. «This may counteract some of the effects of the yen trade’s unwind. In addition, as the U.S. gets its own rates and inflation under better control, which has already started to incrementally trend down over the past few months, it will reduce pressure on other central bank bonds and slow rate growth on yen borrow.»
Still, traders need to be vigilant for volatility, as Deribit’s BTC-listed options market tracked by Amberdata shows significant negative dealer gamma between $81,000 and $87,000. Dealers are likely to trade in the direction of the market to maintain their overall exposure neutral, adding to price swings.
The U.S. is set to publish the February producer price index (PPI) report and the weekly jobless claims later today. A hotter-than-expected PPI, representing pipeline inflation, may inject downside volatility into risk assets. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
March 15: Athene Network (ATH) mainnet launch.
March 15: Reploy will close its V1 RAI staking program to new users as it transitions to a fully automated revenue-sharing protocol.
March 17: CME Group launches solana (SOL) futures.
March 18: Zano (ZANO) hard fork network upgrade which activates “ETH Signature support for off-chain signing and asset operations.”
March 20: Pascal hard fork network upgrade goes live on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet.
Macro
March 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February producer price inflation data.
Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.6%
PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.5%
March 14, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases January producer price inflation data.
PPI MoM Prev. 1.48%
PPI YoY Prev. 9.42%
March 16, 10:00 p.m.: The National Bureau of Statistics of China releases February employment data.
Unemployment Rate Prev. 5.1%
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
March 14: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, $-0.05
March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Uniswap DAO is discussing continuing treasury delegation to maintain governance stability and retain active delegates, including a renewed framework and structure expiration and allocation mechanisms.
ApeCoin DAO is discussing the establishment of an APE base in Lhasa, Tibet Autonomous Region, China. It’s also discussing the creation of ApeSites, which aims to provide the BAYC community with an “easy-to-use tool to create personalized websites.”
Aave DAO is discussing the formalization of a six-month agreement with Chainlink on the potential integration of the Chainlink Smart Value Recapture (SVR) system.
March 13, 10 a.m.: Mantra to host a Community Connect call with its CEO and co-founder to discuss various major updates.
March 13, 10 a.m.: Mantle Network to hold a Surge Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
March 13, 11:30 a.m.: Jupiter to hold a Planetary Call.
March 13, 2 p.m.: THORChain to hold an X Spaces session on TCY / THORFi recovery.
Unlocks
March 14: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $11.16 million.
March 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.65 million.
March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.1% of its circulating supply worth $32.33 million.
March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of its circulating supply worth $79.80 million.
March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $13.19 million.
March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $97.6 million.
March 23: Mantra (OM) to unlock 0.51% of its circulating supply worth $32.4 million.
Token Listings
March 13: Nano (XNO) to be listed on OKX.
March 18: Paws (PAWS) to be listed on Bybit.
March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 1 of 2: Web3 Amsterdam ‘25
March 16, 6:00 p.m.: Solana AI Summit (San Jose, Calif.)
March 18-20: Digital Asset Summit 2025 (New York)
March 18-20: Fintech Americas Miami 2025
March 19-20: Next Block Expo (Warsaw)
March 24-26: Merge Buenos Aires
March 25-26: PAY360 2025 (London)
March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)
March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)
March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)
March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025
March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)
March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
The cost of missing out on potential airdrops has been massive for potential recipients in the U.S., according to a Thursday report by Dragonfly Capital.
Up to 5.2 million American crypto users have been excluded from airdrops, missing out on an estimated $3.49 billion to $5.02 billion in token value, based on broader data.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg: 22%–24% of active crypto wallets are American, but they’ve been systematically cut off. The U.S. government lost out too, with $418 million to $1.1 billion in federal tax revenue gone, plus $107 million to $284 million in state taxes.
Regulatory confusion in the U.S. forced crypto projects to play it safe. Many blocked U.S. participants outright, moved their operations to other countries, or tweaked their airdrop designs to dodge potential lawsuits or penalties.
This created a big divide: While crypto adoption exploded worldwide, the U.S. lagged behind. Projects didn’t want to risk breaking unclear rules, so they geofenced Americans out — meaning U.S. users couldn’t claim tokens.
Things might be starting to shift, though. The policy environment in the U.S. is changing, with signs that regulators and lawmakers could ease up on crypto restrictions, Dragonfly concluded.
Derivatives Positioning
BNB, ETH, XLM, DOT and OM are the only top-25 coins by market value boasting positive perpetual futures cumulative volume deltas for the past 24 hours, according to data sourve Velo. It’s a sign of net buying pressure.
Positioning in CME’s bitcoin futures remains light, with open interest at 146K BTC, barely higher than the recent multimonth low of 140.84 BTC. The same can be said about CME’s ETH futures.
BTC’s CME basis remains stuck between annualized 5% and 10%, while ETH’s has bounced to nearly 7% from the recent low of 4%.
BTC and ETH puts are trading pricier than calls out to the May-end expiry on Deribit, reflecting persistent downside fears.
Block flows featured a long BTC straddle, a bullish vol play and outright buys in OTM puts.
Market Movements:
BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $83,335.37 (24hrs: +0.98%)
ETH is down 0.29% at $1,896.33 (24hrs: -0.4%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 0.55% at 2,596.89 (24hrs: +1.65%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 27 bps at 3.16%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0038% (4.18% annualized) on Binance
DXY is unchanged at 103.66
Gold is up 0.15% at $2,943.76/oz
Silver is down 0.48% at $33.11/oz
Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 36,790.03
Hang Seng closed -0.58% at 23,462.65
FTSE is up 0.38% at 8,573.66
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.25% at 5,372.83
DJIA closed on Wednesday -0.2% at 41,350.93
S&P 500 closed +0.49% at 5,599.30
Nasdaq closed +1.22% at 17,648.45
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.72% at 24,423.34
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.81% at 2,326.29
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 1 bp at 4.33%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up unchanged at 5,604.25
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 19,602.00
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 41,411.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.97 (-0.21%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02272 (-0.39%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 832 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $46.1
Total Fees: 5.19 BTC / $428.778
CME Futures Open Interest: 143,790 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 28.3 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 8.04%
Technical Analysis
The SOL/ETH ratio continues to hold the bull market trendline despite the MACD, a momentum indicator, flashing negative readings for the fourth straight week.
That’s a sign of underlying strength in the market and potential for a continued SOL outperformance relative to ether.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $262.55 (+0.75%), down 0.63% at $260.89 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $191.73 (+0.02%), down 0.18% at $191.39
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.50 (+1.33%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.11 (-1.58%), up 1.07% at $13.25
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.85 (+1.68%), down 0.25% at $7.83
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.95 (+3.71%), down 1.12% at $8.85
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.10 (-1.94%), down 0.62% at $8.05
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.29 (+1.39%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.60 (+2.44%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.43 (+11.96%), down 5.18% at $26.01
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: $13.3 million
Cumulative net flows: $35.49 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,117 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$10.3 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.70 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.555 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The VIX index, Wallstreet’s so-called fear gauge, has turned lower from the December high, hinting at a renewed risk-on upswing in stocks.
That could bode well for cryptocurrencies.
While You Were Sleeping
Poland’s President Urges U.S. to Move Nuclear Warheads to Polish Territory (Financial Times): Andrzej Duda said NATO’s nuclear deterrent should move eastward, citing the alliance’s expansion and Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Worst of U.S. Equity Correction Is Likely Over, JPMorgan Say (Bloomberg): JPMorgan strategists said U.S. credit markets suggest a lower recession risk than equities, indicating recent stock declines may stem from hedge funds unwinding positions rather than economic fundamentals.
Consumer Angst Is Striking All Income Levels (The Wall Street Journal): U.S. consumers are spending less as shrinking savings and weaker wage growth limit their budgets, while tariff concerns stoke expectations of higher inflation and recession.
BOJ Set to Hold Rates This Month, Hike to 0.75% in Q3, Most Likely July: Reuters Poll (Reuters): A Reuters survey found 90% of economists see Trump’s tariffs hurting Japan’s economy, while 70% anticipate the Bank of Japan will raise rates in the third quarter.
Crypto Scam: Request Made for International Arrest of Hayden Davis (Página/12): An Argentine lawyer asked a federal prosecutor seek an international arrest warrant and Interpol Red Notice for Hayden Davis, aiming for his extradition over alleged involvement in the LIBRA memecoin scandal.
XRP Short Bias Lingers Amid Ripple Legal Hopes, DOGE Nears Death Cross as BTC Dominance Hits 4-Year High (CoinDesk): XRP’s price has rebounded, but traders are still betting against it in futures markets, signaling skepticism about its rally. Several other altcoins display similar bearish positioning.
In the Ether
Uncategorized
21Shares to Liquidate Two Bitcoin and Ether Futures ETFs Amid Market Downturn

Crypto asset manager 21Shares is set to liquidate two actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to bitcoin and ether futures amid a wider market downturn.
The funds slated for liquidation are the ARK 21Shares Active On-Chain Bitcoin Strategy ETF (ARKC) and the ARK 21Shares Active Bitcoin Ethereum Strategy ETF (ARKY). Investors can trade shares until the market closes on March 27, with liquidation expected to take place “on or around March 28,” according to a press release.
The actively managed ETFs, which have an expense ratio of 1% and 0.93%, respectively, are set to be liquidated as U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw over $1.66 billion in outflows so far this month. The outflows come as cryptocurrency prices plunge. Bitcoin is down more than 12.8% year-to-date, while the broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has lost around 24% of its value over the same period.
Shareholders who hold onto their shares until the liquidation date will receive payouts equal to their portion of the fund’s net asset value, the document adds.
Read more: Bitcoin Price Drop to $80K: Crypto Market Analysis, ETF & Trump Impact
Uncategorized
Coinbase Stock Decline Can’t Stop Highly Leveraged Long ETF Rollouts

Leverage Shares by Themes has launched a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to the Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) stock despite a downturn in the crypto-related shares.
The Leverage Shares 2X Long Coinbase Daily ETF (COIG) is designed to deliver twice the daily return of Coinbase’s stock price, offering traders an amplified exposure to the U.S.’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. The ETF, which carries an expense ratio of 0.75%, is listed on Nasdaq, according to a press release.
The launch comes amid a significant cryptocurrency market downturn that saw bitcoin (BTC) drop by around 19% over the last three months, from over $105,000 to now stand at wrought $84,000. COIN shares saw even worse performance, losing nearly 42% of their value during the same period.
The new ETF allows investors to take advantage of Coinbase’s stock performance volatility without directly holding shares.
These types of single-stock leveraged ETFs, for both longs and shorts sides, are typically used for short-term trading due to the high levels of risks associated with daily compounding. The profits and losses for both types of these are amplified when the prices of the underlying stocks move significantly.
Uncategorized
Gold ETFs Inflow Takes Over Bitcoin ETFs Amid Historic Rally

Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have overtaken bitcoin ETFs in assets under management as investors shift toward the traditional safe-haven asset as BTC price tumbled more than 19% over the past three months, while the precious metal climbed 12.5%.
Bitcoin ETFs, which saw significant inflows following their U.S. launch in January last year, have experienced major outflows, losing about $3.8 billion since Feb. 24 of this year, according to Farside Investors data. Meanwhile, gold ETFs recorded their highest monthly inflows since March 2022 last month, according to the World Gold Council.
These flows have meant that gold ETFs have now “reclaimed the asset crown over bitcoin ETFs,” as Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said on social media.
Spot bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. first surpassed gold ETFs in assets under management in December 2024 as the cryptocurrency market surged after Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections.
Meanwhile, gold has been seeing a significant run. This Friday, it exceeded the $3,000 per ounce mark for the first time ever, with gold futures for April delivery breaking through the same level earlier in the week.
Market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty have been helping the price of the precious metal rise as demand for a safe haven continues to grow.
Read more: Gold’s Historic Rally Leaves Bitcoin Behind, But the Trend May Reverse
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