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Crypto Daybook Americas: Tariffs to Dominate Narrative as BTC ETF Volumes Surge

Published

3 месяца ago

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The recent TACO tease, implying «Trump Always Chickens Out» on tariffs, likely didn’t go down well with the President, who raised the stakes in the ongoing trade war on Friday, leading to broad-based risk aversion, which persists as of writing.

On Friday, Trump said that on June 4, the U.S. tariffs on imported aluminum and steel would go from 25% to 50%, triggering a broad-based risk-off move across global markets. Bitcoin has since traded in the range of $103,000-$106,000, with little to no excitement in the broader crypto market. Notably, BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) registered an outflow of $430 million, ending a prolonged inflows streak.

«Tariff tensions will likely dominate the macro narrative through June, with meaningful policy deadlines only kicking in from 8 July. In the absence of fresh catalysts, BTC could remain rangebound, with the $100k and $110k levels critical to watch given their status as strikes with the highest month-end open interest,» Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital said.

ETFs are becoming increasingly important to the market. Data shared by FalconX’s David Lawant shows that the cumulative trading volume in the 11 spot BTC ETFs listed in the U.S. is now well over 40% of the spot volume. The data supports the «Bitcoin ETFs are the new marginal buyer» hypothesis, according to Bitwise’s Head of Research — Europe, Andre Dragosch.

Meanwhile, on-chain data tracked by Glassnode showed a drop in momentum buyers alongside a sharp rise in profit takers last week. «This trend often shows near local tops, as traders begin locking in gains instead of building exposure,» Glassnode said.

High-stakes crypto trader James Wynn opened a fresh BTC long trade with 40x leverage and a liquidation price of $104,580, according to blockchain sleuth Lookonchain.

In other news, Japan’s “MicroStrategy” Metaplanet announced an additional purchase of 1,088 BTC, and billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk announced a new XChat with Bitcoin-like encryption.

Binance’s founder CZ said on X that now might be a good time to develop a dark pool-style perpetual-focused decentralized exchange, noting that real-time order visibility can lead to MEV attacks and malicious liquidations.

In traditional markets, gold looked to break out of its recent consolidation, hinting at the next leg higher as Bank of America and Morgan Stanley forecast continued dollar weakness. Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls release will be closely watched for signs of labor market weakness. Stay Alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • June 3, 1 p.m.: The Shannon hard fork network upgrade will get activated on the Pocket Network (POKT).
    • June 4, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets: From Blueprint to a Functional Framework.” Livestream link.
    • June 6: Sia (SC) is set to activate Phase 1 of its V2 hard fork, the largest upgrade in the project’s history. Phase 2 will get activated on July 6.
    • June 9, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable on «DeFi and the American Spirit»
    • June 10, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Final Services Committee hearing for Markup of Various Measures, including the crypto market structure bill, i.e. the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.
  • Macro
    • June 2, 1 p.m.: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell will deliver a speech at the Federal Reserve Board’s International Finance Division 75th Anniversary Conference in Washington. Livestream link.
    • June 2, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Final) May U.S. Manufacturing PMI data.
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. 52.3 vs. Prev. 50.2
    • June 2, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases May Manufacturing PMI.
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 48.7
    • June 3: South Koreans will vote to choose a new president following the ouster of Yoon Suk Yeol, who was dismissed after briefly declaring martial law in December 2024.
    • June 3, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April U.S. labor market data.
      • Job Openings Est. 7.10M vs. Prev. 7.192M
      • Job Quits Prev. 3.332M
    • June 3, 1 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook will deliver a speech on economic outlook at the Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York. Livestream link.
    • June 4, 12:01 a.m.: U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum will increase from 25% to 50%, according to a Friday evening Truth Social post by President Trump.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • None in the near future.

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • June 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $14.18 million.
    • June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $57.11 million.
    • June 13: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.33% of its circulating supply worth $13.24 million.
    • June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $17.11 million.
    • June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $10.64 million.
  • Token Launches
    • June 3: Bondex (BDXN) to be listed on Binance, Bybit, Coinlist, and others.
    • June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends.
    • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN), & Synapse (SYN).

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • At 11:26 p.m. on Sunday, billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk tweeted “Kekius Maximus pit level 117, hardcore rank 1,” and meme-coin traders pounced on frog-themed tokens and low-cap KEKIUS memecoins.
  • The Ethereum version surged over 25% in minutes, pushing its market cap to about $33 million. In comparison, a Solana-based KEKIUS zoomed as much as 30%, showing the same “Musk effect” despite far lower liquidity.
  • Musk adopted the “Kekius Maximus” persona on New Year’s Eve 2024 and has repeatedly juiced the token with profile changes and gaming references.
  • The name fuses crypto-native “Pepe the Frog” lore with Gladiator’s Maximus Decimus Meridius.
  • These tokens thrive (and falter) on social media hype; they lack solid fundamentals and can reverse just as quickly.

Derivatives Positioning

  • HBAR, DOT and LTC lead the majors in terms of growth in open interest in perpetual futures in the past 24 hours.
  • Annualized funding rates for majors remains positive or bullish, except for XLM and TON.
  • On the CME, one-month annualized basis in the BTC futures has pulled back to around 6.5% from the recent high of 9.5%. ETH’s basis remains relatively elevated above 8%.
  • On Deribit, BTC and ETH one and two-week options exhibit downside fears. Other expiries show call bias.

Market Movements

  • BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $104,642.17 (24hrs: +0.51%)
  • ETH is down 3.78% at $2,480.24 (24hrs: +0.47%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 2.28% at 3,028.20 (24hrs: +0.35%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 21 bps at 2.97%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.003% (3.2949% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is down 0.51% at 98.82
  • Gold is up 2.19% at $3,372.00/oz
  • Silver is up 1.65% at $33.44/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed -1.3% at 37,470.67
  • Hang Seng closed -0.57% at 23,157.97
  • FTSE is unchanged at 8,768.28
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.74% at 5,327.14
  • DJIA closed on Friday +0.13% at 42,270.07
  • S&P 500 closed unchanged at 5,911.69
  • Nasdaq closed -0.32% at 19,113.77
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.14% at 26,175.10
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.77% at 2,554.48
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 3 bps at 4.44%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.63% at 5,879.00
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.77% at 21,212.25
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.56% at 42,056.0

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 64.62 (0.21%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02375 (-1.17%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 931 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $52.3
  • Total Fees: 3.47 BTC / $364,001
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 146,575 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.8 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.02%

Technical Analysis

Gold's daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • Gold is looking to establish a foothold above the upper end of the falling channel.
  • A potential breakout would signal a resumption of the broader uptrend, offering bullish cues to bitcoin.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $369.06 (-0.42%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $246.62 (-0.89%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$24.92 (-7.87%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.12 (-3.35%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.07 (-1.34%), -0.25% at $8.05 in pre-market
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.65 (-0.37%), -1.5% at $10.49
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.63 (-1.71%), -0.35% at $8.60
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $16.47 (-2.54%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $40 (-0.2%), +1.72% at $40.69
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.5 (-5.97%), +0.39% at $28.61

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $616.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $44.35 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.20 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $70.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $3.06 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.66 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

The U.S.-listed spot BTC ETF volume as a share of total BTC spot market volume. (FalconX)

  • The chart shows that the cumulative volume in U.S.-listed spot BTC ETFs as a share of the total bitcoin spot market volume has risen to record highs.
  • The data supports the «Bitcoin ETFs are the new marginal buyer» hypothesis.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Tariffs not working ROSS ULBRICHT'S FINAL PRISON ID CARD JUST SOLD AT AUCTIONETH is an *active* store of value.Ross Ulbricht( @RealRossU ), the founder of the #SilkRoad marketplace, received 300 $BTC($31.4M) to his donation wallet In the short run: Strategy earns about 1.5x Bitcoin's return. On average, if Bitcoin moves up 10% $MSTR gains 15. If Bitcoin loses 10%, you lose 15.

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Asia Morning Briefing: Native Markets Wins Right to Issue USDH After Validator Vote

Published

2 часа ago

on

15 сентября, 2025

By

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Hyperliquid’s validator community has chosen Native Markets to issue USDH, ending a weeklong contest that drew proposals from Paxos, Frax, Sky (ex-MakerDAO), Agora, and others.

Native Markets, co-founded by former Uniswap Labs president MC Lader, researcher Anish Agnihotri, and early Hyperliquid backer Max Fiege, said it will begin rolling out USDH “within days,” according to a post by Fiege on X.

According to onchain trackers, Native Markets’ proposal took approximately 70% of validators’ votes, while Paxos took 20%, and Ethena came in at 3.2%.

The staged launch starts with capped mints and redemptions, followed by a USDH/USDC spot pair before caps are lifted.

USDH is designed to challenge Circle’s USDC, which currently dominates Hyperliquid with nearly $6 billion in deposits, or about 7.5% of its supply. USDC and other stablecoins will remain supported if they meet liquidity and HYPE staking requirements.

Most rival bidders had promised to channel stablecoin yields back to the ecosystem with Paxos via HYPE buybacks, Frax through direct user yield, and Sky with a 4.85% savings rate plus a $25 million “Genesis Star” project.

Native Markets’ pitch instead stressed credibility, trading experience, and validator alignment.

Market Movement

BTC: BTC has recently reclaimed the $115,000 level, helped by inflows into ETFs, easing U.S. inflation data, and growing expectations for interest rate cuts. Also, technical momentum is picking up, though resistance sits around $116,000, according to CoinDesk’s market insights bot.

ETH: ETH is trading above $4600. The price is being buoyed by strong ETF inflows.

Gold: Gold continues to trade near record highs as traders eye dollar weakness on expected Fed rate cuts.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

  • Pakistan’s crypto regulator invites crypto firms to get licensed, serve 40 million local users (The Block)
  • Inside the IRS’s Expanding Surveillance of Crypto Investors (Decrypt)
  • Massachusetts State Attorney General Alleges Kalshi Violating Sports Gambling Laws (CoinDesk)
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BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Money Printing Extending Crypto Cycle Well Into 2026

Published

9 часов ago

on

14 сентября, 2025

By

Arthur Hayes believes the current crypto bull market has further to run, supported by global monetary trends he sees as only in their early stages.

Speaking in a recent interview with Kyle Chassé, a longtime bitcoin and Web3 entrepreneur, the BitMEX co-founder and current Maelstrom CIO argued that governments around the world are far from finished with aggressive monetary expansion.

He pointed to U.S. politics in particular, saying that President Donald Trump’s second term has not yet fully unleashed the spending programs that could arrive from mid-2026 onward. Hayes suggested that if expectations for money printing become extreme, he may consider taking partial profits, but for now he sees investors underestimating the scale of liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto.

Hayes tied his outlook to broader geopolitical shifts, including what he described as the erosion of a unipolar world order. In his view, such periods of instability tend to push policymakers toward fiscal stimulus and central bank easing as tools to keep citizens and markets calm.

He also raised the possibility of strains within Europe — even hinting that a French default could destabilize the euro — as another factor likely to accelerate global printing presses. While he acknowledged these policies eventually risk ending badly, he argued that the blow-off top of the cycle is still ahead.

Turning to bitcoin, Hayes pushed back on concerns that the asset has stalled after reaching a record $124,000 in mid-August.

He contrasted its performance with other asset classes, noting that while U.S. stocks are higher in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis. Hayes pointed out that real estate also lags when measured against gold, and only a handful of U.S. technology giants have consistently outperformed.

When measured against bitcoin, however, he believes all traditional benchmarks appear weak.

Hayes’ message was that bitcoin’s dominance becomes even clearer once assets are viewed through the lens of currency debasement.

For those frustrated that bitcoin is not posting fresh highs every week, Hayes suggested that expectations are misplaced.

In his telling, investors from the traditional world and those in crypto actually share the same premise: governments and central banks will print money whenever growth falters. Hayes says traditional finance tends to express this view by buying bonds on leverage, while crypto investors hold bitcoin as the “faster horse.”

His conclusion is that patience is essential. Hayes argued that the real edge of holding bitcoin comes from years of compounding outperformance rather than short-term speculation.

Coupled with what he sees as an inevitable wave of money creation through the rest of the decade, he believes the present crypto cycle could stretch well into 2026, far from exhausted.

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Bitcoin Bulls Bet on Fed Rate Cuts To Drive Bond Yields Lower, But There’s a Catch

Published

10 часов ago

on

14 сентября, 2025

By

On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25%. This move will likely be followed by more easing in the coming months, taking the rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months. The fed funds futures market is discounting a drop in the fed funds rate to less than 3% by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will push Treasury yields sharply lower, thereby encouraging increased risk-taking across both the economy and financial markets. However, the dynamics are more complex and could lead to outcomes that differ significantly from what is anticipated.

While the expected Fed rate cuts could weigh on the two-year Treasury yield, those at the long end of the curve may remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and sticky inflation.

Debt supply

The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills (short-term instruments) and eventually longer-duration Treasury notes to finance the Trump administration’s recently approved package of extended tax cuts and increased defense spending. According to the Congressional Budget Office, these policies are likely to add over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years, while Increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion, or roughly $5 trillion if made permanent.

The increased supply of debt will likely weigh on bond prices and lift yields. (bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction).

«The U.S. Treasury’s eventual move to issue more notes and bonds will pressure longer-term yields higher,» analysts at T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, said in a recent report.

Fiscal concerns have already permeated the longer-duration Treasury notes, where investors are demanding higher yields to lend money to the government for 10 years or more, known as the term premium.

The ongoing steepening of the yield curve – which is reflected in the widening spread between 10- and 2-year yields, as well as 30- and 5-year yields and driven primarily by the relative resilience of long-term rates – also signals increasing concerns about fiscal policy.

Kathy Jones, managing director and chief income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, voiced a similar opinion this month, noting that «investors are demanding a higher yield for long-term Treasuries to compensate for the risk of inflation and/or depreciation of the dollar as a consequence of high debt levels.»

These concerns could keep long-term bond yields from falling much, Jones added.

Stubborn inflation

Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, bolstering expectations for a quicker pace of Fed rate cuts and a decline in Treasury yields. However, inflation has recently edged higher, complicating that outlook.

When the Fed cut rates in September last year, the year-on-year inflation rate was 2.4%. Last month, it stood at 2.9%, the highest since January’s 3% reading. In other words, inflation has regained momentum, weakening the case for faster Fed rate cuts and a drop in Treasury yields.

Easing priced in?

Yields have already come under pressure, likely reflecting the market’s anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The 10-year yield slipped to 4% last week, hitting the lowest since April 8, according to data source TradingView. The benchmark yield has dropped over 60 basis points from its May high of 4.62%.

According to Padhraic Garvey, CFA, regional head of research, Americas at ING, the drop to 4% is likely an overshoot to the downside.

«We can see the 10yr Treasury yield targeting still lower as an attack on 4% is successful. But that’s likely an overshoot to the downside. Higher inflation prints in the coming months will likely cause long-end yields some issues, requiring a significant adjustment,» Garvey said in a note to clients last week.

Perhaps rate cuts have been priced in, and yields could bounce back hard following the Sept. 17 move, in a repeat of the 2024 pattern. The dollar index suggests the same, as noted early this week.

Lesson from 2024

The 10-year yield fell by over 100 basis points to 3.60% in roughly five months leading up to the September 2024 rate cut.

The central bank delivered additional rate cuts in November and December. Yet, the 10-year yield bottomed out with the September move and rose to 4.57% by year-end, eventually reaching a high of 4.80% in January of this year.

According to ING, the upswing in yields following the easing was driven by economic resilience, sticky inflation, and fiscal concerns.

As of today, while the economy has weakened, inflation and fiscal concerns have worsened as discussed earlier, which means the 2024 pattern could repeat itself.

What it means for BTC?

While BTC rallied from $70,000 to over $100,000 between October and December 2024 despite rising long-term yields, this surge was primarily fueled by optimism around pro-crypto regulatory policies under President Trump and growing corporate adoption of BTC and other tokens.

However, these supporting narratives have significantly weakened looking back a year later. Consequently, the possibility of a potential hardening of yields in the coming months weighing over bitcoin cannot be dismissed.

Read: Here Are the 3 Things That Could Spoil Bitcoin’s Rally Towards $120K

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