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Crypto Daybook Americas: Risk-Off Vibe Lifts Bitcoin With CPI Data Looming

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By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Macroeconomic factors continue to drive bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term price volatility as it holds steady above $80,000, with a wave of significant news emerging over the past 24 hours.

Still, there’s a risk-off feeling in the air as the divergence between bitcoin and the broader crypto market grows. Bitcoin dominance has surged to 62%, approaching a year-to-date high, while the ether-to-bitcoin (ETH-BTC) ratio has turned negative on a four-year compound annual basis, meaning ETH is underperforming.

Meanwhile, Trump’s trade wars persist as another concern reining in optimism in the market. That’s not just with Canada, but also in the form of metal tariffs, prompting retaliatory measures from the European Union.

One of the most intriguing developments comes from Canada, where newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney has filed to sell U.S. dollar bonds. While the size of the sale remains undisclosed, it’s worth noting the country is the sixth-largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, possessing $379 billion as of the end of 2024. If the sale proceeds, it could put upward pressure on yields, which is the opposite of what Trump wants.

The Treasury yield narrative is paramount because roughly $9 trillion worth of U.S. debt is set to mature or require refinancing this year alone. This is one of the key reasons why the U.S. administration is eager to bring down Treasury yields.

More immediately, market attention is turning to today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with risk-asset bulls hoping for a softer inflation print. The S&P 500 is hovering around correction territory, down nearly 10%. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, risk assets could face further downside. Stay Alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

March 12: Hemi (HEMI), an L2 blockchain that operates on both Bitcoin and Ethereum, has its mainnet launch.

March 15: Athene Network (ATH) mainnet launch.

March 15: Reploy will close its V1 RAI staking program to new users as it transitions to a fully automated revenue-sharing protocol.

March 17: CME Group launches solana (SOL) futures.

March 18: Zano (ZANO) hard fork network upgrade which activates “ETH Signature support for off-chain signing and asset operations.”

March 20: Pascal hard fork network upgrade goes live on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet.

Macro

March 12, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February consumer price inflation data.

Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.3% vs. Prev. 0.16%

Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5% vs. Prev. 4.56%

March 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February consumer price inflation data.

Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%

Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.2% vs. Prev. 3.3%

Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.5%

Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3%

March 12, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada announces its interest-rate decision followed by a press conference (livestream link) 45 minutes later.

Policy Interest Rate Est. 2.75% vs. Prev. 3%

March 12, 12:00 p.m.: Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service releases February consumer price inflation data.

Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 1.2%

Inflation Rate YoY Est. 10.1% vs. Prev. 9.9%

March 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February producer price inflation data.

Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%

Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.6%

PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%

PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.5%

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

March 12 (TBC): TeraWulf (WULF), $-0.03

March 14: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, $-0.05

March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Uniswap DAO is discussing continuing treasury delegation to maintain governance stability and retain active delegates, including a renewed framework and structure expiration and allocation mechanisms.

March 13, 10 a.m.: Mantra to host a Community Connect call with its CEO and Co-Founder to discuss various major updates.

March 13, 10 a.m.: Mantle Network to hold a Surge Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.

March 13, 11:30 a.m.: Jupiter to hold a Planetary Call.

Unlocks

March 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.93% of circulating supply worth $58.26 million.

March 14: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $10.67 million.

March 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.35 million.

March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.1% of its circulating supply worth $31.53 million.

March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of its circulating supply worth $79.60 million.

March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $12.70 million.

Token Listings

March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Day 3 of 3: AIBC Africa (Cape Town)

Day 2 of 2: VanEck Southern California Blockchain Conference 2025 (Los Angeles)

March 13-14: Web3 Amsterdam ‘25

March 16, 6:00 p.m.: Solana AI Summit (San Jose, Calif.)

March 18-20: Digital Asset Summit 2025 (New York)

March 18-20: Fintech Americas Miami 2025

March 19-20: Next Block Expo (Warsaw)

March 24-26: Merge Buenos Aires

March 25-26: PAY360 2025 (London)

March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)

March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)

March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)

March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)

March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)

March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)

March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025

March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)

March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

The freshly issued BMT tokens of Bubblemaps, a crypto transparency and on-chain analysis tool, are down more than 50% since going live on Tuesday.

Bubblemaps uses clustering to group wallet addresses into bubbles, revealing whale concentrations, insider control or suspicious patterns (e.g. a deployer with 76% of supply), helping investors assess risks through visual ownership maps.

BMT can be used to access an «Intel Desk» for community-driven scam investigations and premium analytics features, and participate in governance.

People are slamming BMT for a nearly 90% supply concentration in one wallet, a mintable contract risking inflation, an elitist airdrop excluding many, and unlocked liquidity raising rug-pull fears, which is rather ironic for a transparency-focused project.

Derivatives Positioning

Cumulative open interest in ETH standard and perpetual futures has risen to 9.75 million ETH, the highest since Feb. 3. The count has increased from 8.4 million ETH four weeks ago, which shows traders have been selling into the falling market.

Open interest in BTC perp and standard futures remains light, with funding rates marginally positive. SOL, ADA, TRX and LINK still see negative perpetual funding rates.

Deribit-listed BTC and ETH options continue to exhibit a bias for puts out to May expiry, with meaningful constructive outlook for calls emerging from the third quarter.

Overnight block flows featured selling higher strike BTC and ETH calls and purchase of short-tenor puts.

Market Movements:

BTC is down 0.55% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $82,577.14 (24hrs: +0.87%)

ETH is down 2.6% at $1,892.41 (24hrs: -1.58%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 1% at 2,556.70 (24hrs: +0.52%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 32 bps at 3.43%

BTC funding rate is at 0.007% (2.54% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.31% at 103.52

Gold is unchanged at $2,914.29/oz

Silver is up 0.69% at $33.01/oz

Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 36,819.09

Hang Seng closed -0.76 at 23,600.31

FTSE is up 0.43% at 8,532.17

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.19% at 5,373.08

DJIA closed on Tuesday -1.14% at 41,433.48

S&P 500 closed -0.76% at 5,572.07

Nasdaq closed -0.18% at 17,436.10

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.54% at 24,248.20

S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.44% at 2,307.52

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.28%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.54% at 5,607.25

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.67% at 19,529.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.37% at 41,627.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 62.13 (-0.16%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02290 (-0.06%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 815 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $46.1

Total Fees: 6.03 BTC / $490,764

CME Futures Open Interest: 142,725 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 28.3 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 8.04%

Technical Analysis

The dollar index, which represents the greenback’s exchange rate against a basket of fiat currencies, has dropped below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support of the late September to January rally.

The breakdown means a potential soft U.S. CPI release could easily send the index sliding to 102.31, the 78.6% retracement support.

A deeper slide in the dollar could bode well for risk assets, including BTC.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $260.59 (+8.91%), down 0.58% at $259.09 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $191.69 (+6.95%), unchanged in pre-market

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.27 (-1.09%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.32 (-0.67%), down 0.68% at $13.23

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.72 (+2.12%), down 0.26% at $7.70

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.63 (+7.74%), down 0.46% at $8.59

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.26 (+3.51%), down 0.73% at $8.20

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.08 (+4.14%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.80 (+0.18%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.50 (-0.41%), up 0.94% at $24.73

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: -$371 million

Cumulative net flows: $35.47 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1,121 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$21.6 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.66 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.571 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

The chart shows daily trading volume on Hyperliquid, the leading perpetual-focused decentralized exchange.

Despite the market swoon, volumes have held remarkably steady, contrasting the sharp slowdown on other avenues like Solana’s Raydium.

While You Were Sleeping

EU Retaliates After Donald Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Take Effect (Financial Times): The European Commission’s initial retaliatory tariffs on whiskey, jeans and motorcycles take effect April 1 with additional levies on industrial and agricultural exports expected by mid-April.

Bitcoin CME Futures Spread Slides to $490, Undoing the ‘Trump Bump’ in BTC (CoinDesk): Traders are scaling back expectations that Trump’s presidency will boost crypto.

BOJ Unfazed by Rising Bond Yields, Signals Resolve to Keep Hiking Rates (Reuters): The governor of the Bank of Japan indicated no plans to intervene as markets expect further rate hikes, driven by wage growth and higher prices.

Franklin Templeton Joins XRP ETF Rush, Files Preliminary Application With SEC (CoinDesk): The American asset management giant filed a registration statement Tuesday for a spot XRP ETF that would trade on the Cboe BZX Exchange.

Metaplanet Increases Bitcoin Holdings With $13.5M Purchase and Bond Issuance (CoinDesk): The Japanese company bought 162 BTC and issued 2 billion yen in zero-interest bonds to expand its bitcoin reserves.

Japanese Tech Giants Sony and LINE Join Forces in Blockchain Deal (CoinDesk): Sony’s blockchain division is partnering with the Japanese social media giant to bring four mini-apps to the Soneium blockchain. The aim is to facilitate features like in-game rewards and purchases.

In the Ether

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Trump’s Official Memecoin Surges Despite Massive $320 Million Unlock in Thin Holiday Trading

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TRUMP, the memecoin tied to U.S. President Donald Trump, gained more than 9% in the past 24 hours following a $320 million token unlock. The price now sits around $8.40, still down more than 88% from its peak above $71 on Jan. 18.

The recent unlock may spell further trouble for investors, who are estimated to have lost a total of $2 billion after purchasing the token earlier this year.

Token unlocks typically flood the market with new supply and tend to depress prices. But in this case, the market appears to have priced in the release beforehand, potentially explaining the price uptick. Still, the $320 million unlock raises the risk of a large sell-off, especially given TRUMP’s thin liquidity.

Data from CoinMarketCap shows that just $1.3 million could move the token’s price by 2% on major exchanges. The move also comes during the Easter holiday weekend, when trading volumes are subdued and price swings can be more pronounced.

On social media, rumors are swirling about a possible event for large token holders, supposedly being organized by Trump himself. These claims remain unverified and highly speculative.

Data from Dune analytics shows there are currently 636,000 TRUMP token holders on-chain, with just 12,285 wallets having more than $1,000 worth of the cryptocurrency.

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Slovenia Moves to Tax Crypto Profits at 25%

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Slovenia’s finance ministry has proposed a 25% tax on capital gains from cryptocurrency starting in 2026, under a draft law aimed at closing a gap in the country’s tax system.

The tax will apply to profit made when individuals sell crypto for fiat currency or spend it on goods and services. However, swapping one cryptocurrency for another will remain tax-free, and any gains made before January 1, 2026, will not be taxed, according to the finance ministry’s proposal.

The measure is meant to treat crypto gains more like other capital investments, such as stocks or bonds, which are already taxed.

Under the law, individuals would calculate their profit as the difference between the value at acquisition and at sale, adjusted for transaction fees. Losses can be carried forward to offset future gains. Taxpayers would need to file an annual return by March 31 and make payment within 15 days.

The tax could generate between €2.5 million and €25 million annually, according to preliminary government estimates. The country’s Ministry of Finance is soliciting public feedback on the proposal, which would come into effect next year.

The proposal comes as data from the European Central Bank’s ‘Survey on Consumer Payment Attitudes in the Euro Area’ shows Slovenia has the highest share of cryptocurrency owners in the euro area, with 15% of adults holding digital currencies last year, up from 8% in 2022.

Disclaimer: Information collected for this article was translated with the use of artificial intelligence.

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Unpacking the DOJ’s Crypto Enforcement Memo

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Earlier this month, the Department of Justice disbanded its National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team and said it would no longer pursue what Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche described as «regulation by prosecution.»

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

‘Regulation by prosecution’

The narrative

The U.S. Department of Justice «will no longer pursue litigation or enforcement actions that have the effect of superimposing regulatory frameworks on digital assets» in lieu of regulatory agencies putting together their own frameworks for overseeing the sector, a 4-page memo signed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche on April 7 said. In other words, the DOJ will no longer pursue «regulation by prosecution,» the memo said.

Why it matters

The DOJ’s memo raised concerns that it may mean criminal activities in the crypto sector would not be prosecuted, or at least prosecuted as heavily as it was under the past several years — both by disbanding the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET) and by shifting the entity’s priorities.

Breaking it down

At a practical level, the memo itself is internal guidance but may not be a binding document. Multiple attorneys told CoinDesk they interpreted the guidance to indicate that the DOJ would still bring fraud or other criminal cases involving crypto, but would try to avoid any cases where the DOJ itself had to determine if a digital asset was a security or a commodity.

«Fraud is still fraud,» said Josh Naftalis, a partner at Pallas Partners LLP and a former prosecutor with the U.S. Attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York. «This memo does not seem to say the DOJ is not going to prosecute fraud in the crypto space.»

Still, the memo raised alarms for prominent Democrats who questioned whether the DOJ was suggesting it would let criminal conduct occur. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Mazie Hirono, Richard Durbin, Sheldon Whitehouse, Christopher Coons and Richard Blumenthal wrote a letter to Blanche, saying his «decision to give a free pass to cryptocurrency money launderers» and shut down the NCET were «grave mistakes that will support sanctions evasion, drug trafficking, scams and child sexual exploitation.»

«Specifically, the Department will no longer target virtual currency exchanges, mixing and tumbling services and offline wallets for the acts of their end users or unwitting violations of regulations — except to the extent the investigation is consistent with the priorities articulated in the following paragraphs,» the DOJ memo said, a passage the Senators’ letter referenced.

New York Attorney General Letitia James wrote an open letter to Senate leaders in the same week asking them to advance legislation to address cryptocurrency risks. She did not specifically reference Blanche’s memo but detailed possible ways to better police the sector through legislation.

Katherine Reilly, a partner at Pryor Cashman and a former prosecutor with the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, told CoinDesk that most of the major crypto cases brought by the DOJ in recent years would not have been affected had this guidance been in effect.

The BitMEX case in 2020, when the DOJ and Commodity Futures Trading Commission brought unregistered trading and other charges against the platform, is «probably closest to the line» of being a case that may not have been brought under this guidance, she said.

Trump pardoned BitMEX, its founders and a senior employee in late March, barely two weeks before the DOJ memo was shared.

«I think that it’s clear that the Justice Department wants to limit the DOJ’s role in regulating the crypto industry … looking beyond its role in other crimes, fraud, laundering proceeds from narcotics trafficking, things like that, and sort of take a step back from the role of trying to bring order and fairness to the crypto industry as a whole,» Reilly said.

That’s «probably the intent behind the BitMEX pardons too,» she said.

Naftalis said the DOJ will continue to pursue drug, terrorism or other illicit financing charges even under the memo.

«I think that the headline for the industry is to the extent that there are legal uses of crypto, they’re not going to set the guard rail by criminal enforcement,» he said. «That’s for Congress.»

One section of the memo tells prosecutors not to charge Bank Secrecy Act violations, unregistered securities offering violations, unregistered broker-dealer violations or other Commodity Exchange Act registration violations «unless there is evidence that the defendant knew of the licensing or registration requirement at issue and violated such a requirement willfully.»

Carla Reyes, an Associate Professor of Law at SMU Dedman School of Law, told CoinDesk that this may be referencing recent cases where developers build tools under the impression that they were not committing unlicensed money transmitting activities under existing guidance but may get charged anyway.

«Most criminal statutes require some level of knowledge to define your intention, and knowledge that you’re committing a crime when you do it,» she said. «The further away you get from that, the lesser the charge, but the more willful [and] intentional it is, the higher the charge.»

What the memo seems to want to explicitly move away from is any suggestion that federal prosecutors would interpret how securities or commodities laws might apply to digital assets.

«Prosecutors should not charge violations of the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Commodity Exchange Act, or the regulations promulgated pursuant to these Acts, in cases where (a) the charge would require the Justice Department to litigate whether a digital asset is a ‘security’ or ‘commodity,’ and (b) there is an adequate alternative criminal charge available, such as mail or wire fraud,» the memo said.

A popular critique leveled against former SEC Chair Gary Gensler by the crypto industry was that he was «regulating by enforcement,» rather than focusing on developing guidance for the industry to know what was or wasn’t acceptable. Blanche seems to be referring to a similar critique in the memo, Naftalis said, in that one-off enforcement decisions by the SEC or DOJ should not define the guardrails for the industry.

Steve Segal, a shareholder at Buchalter, said that some of the DOJ’s past cases would charge trading venues for failing to police their own customers. The memo now seems to suggest that if a crypto exchange’s executives were running a clean platform, and customers were laundering funds derived from criminal activities, the executives would not be charged. This is in contrast with, for example, FTX, where the executives were charged and convicted of (or pled guilty to) fraud charges.

«Of course, a lot of the big crypto cases we’ve seen over the last few years are sort of pure investor fraud, things like FTX. And one of the more interesting things about this memo is it talks about crypto investors and really prioritizing cases where crypto investors are being victimized,» Reilly said. «And so I don’t think we should conclude that this memo means we’re going to see a lot fewer cases in the crypto space, or that crypto companies can sort of breathe a sigh of relief that the DOJ is out of the picture for a few years.»

The DOJ’s future cases may appear a bit different in terms of the specific allegations made, but «it’s much too soon to say that everybody can assume the DOJ is out of the crypto business,» she said.

Many of the attorneys speaking to CoinDesk agreed that the memo itself did not clarify all of the different issues that may come up with a criminal case, nor was it an end-all/be-all document.

The memo announced prosecutorial discretion but it isn’t itself a law, Reyes said, adding that it may guide internal decision-making about which cases to pursue the most heavily, as well as the strategies that guide those prosecutions.

A lot of details about how this memo ties together with Trump’s executive order on the strategic bitcoin reserve still need to be spelled out, Segal said. Sections on victim compensation and how seized funds should be handled in the memo do not explain how the DOJ might handle situations where seized funds are turned over to bankruptcy estates, such as what happened with FTX or other similar scenarios.

«I think we’ll really have to see how it plays out, because this guidance, I do think, leaves prosecutors a lot of room to bring cases even of these kinds of violations that are being cast as more regulatory,» Reilly said. «So even if that’s the intent, I think the devil is in the details on what cases we see going forward.»

Stories you may have missed

This week

soc 041525

Monday

  • The Securities and Exchange Commission and Binance were set to file a joint status report on their discussions after a judge paused the regulator’s case against the exchange and its affiliated entities and executives in February. Last Friday, the parties asked for an extension of this deadline, and the judge overseeing the case signed off on Monday, giving the parties until mid-June to file a follow-up.

Elsewhere:

  • (The Wall Street Journal) Binance executives met with U.S. Treasury Department officials in March about potentially «loosening U.S. government oversight» of the exchange following Binance’s November 2023 guilty plea, the Journal reported. Binance agreed to a court-appointed monitor as part of the plea. At the same time as last month’s discussions, Binance was in talks with the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial to develop a dollar-pegged stablecoin.
  • (Fortune) Fortune spoke to and profiled Bo Hines, the executive director of U.S. President Donald Trump’s digital assets advisory council.
  • (CNBC) U.S. importers are seeing more «canceled sailings» due to a drop in demand as a result of tariffs, CNBC reports.
  • (The Verge) ICERAID claims to be a protocol on Solana where people can crowdsource images of «criminal illegal alien activity» in exchange for tokens, but it does not appear to have any connection to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), The Verge reports.
  • (NPR) The Department of Homeland Security is revoking parole for a number of migrants, telling them to self-deport from the U.S. U.S. citizens, born within the U.S., are also receiving these emails.
  • (The New York Times) Acting IRS Commissioner Gary Shapley has been replaced after just three days on the job, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly complained to President Donald Trump that he was not consulted on Shapley’s promotion, which was pushed by Elon Musk.

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!

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