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Crypto Daybook Americas: Risk-Off Remains the Theme as Market Settles
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market is looking to regain some poise after yesterday’s tumble with on-chain indicators showing signs of capitulation in bitcoin. Some tokens, like MakerDAO’s MKR, stand out with a 20% gain in 24 hours, thanks to the DAO’s buyback and burn process.
IP, the native token of decentralized intellectual property-focused blockchain Story Protocol, is also in the green, having risen nearly 40%. The token’s price has doubled in two weeks after being listed on South Korean exchanges.
Other notable outperformers include Celestia’s TIA along with XDC, QNT and HYPE. Data tracked by blockchain sleuth Lookonchain shows whales have been buying the dip in the HYPE token. XRP, meanwhile, is hanging on to a key Fibonacci level, keeping bulls’ hope for bigger gains alive.
According to Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, the crypto market is digesting the end of the recent memecoin frenzy, which could be replaced by productive sectors such as stablecoins, real-world assets and DeFi. «But until they start making their presence felt, the loss of energy will create a drag on the market,» Hougan said on X.
On the macroeconomic front, the optimism seen after the Nov. 4 election is being replaced by caution, as evidenced by Tuesday’s release of the U.S. consumer confidence. The gauge dropped to an eight-month low, and the one-year inflation expectations were highest for 1.5 years, with President Donald Trump’s tariffs singled out as the primary concern in almost every household and business survey.
The dour sentiment and a strengthening yen might keep the upside in risk assets restricted for some time. Earlier this week, Belgium’s central bank’s head, Pierre Wunsch, warned that the ECB risks sleep-walking into too many rate cuts. The Fed, for its part, is unlikely to do QE anytime soon. (Sure, the January meeting minutes discussed an end of quantitive tightening, but that does not mean quantitative easing.)
Speaking of key events to watch out for, the Senate Banking Committee, led by Senator Cynthia Lummis, is set to revisit crypto regulations during Wednesday’s scheduled hearing titled “Exploring Bipartisan Legislative Frameworks for Digital Assets.» Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Feb. 26, 8:30 a.m.: Cosmos (ATOM) network upgrade (to version v22.2.0).
Feb. 26: RedStone (RED) farming starts on Binance Launchpool.
Feb. 27, 4:00 a.m.: Alchemy Pay (ACH) community AMA on Discord.
Feb. 27: Solana-based L2 Sonic SVM (SONIC) mainnet launch (“Mobius”).
March 1: Spot trading on the Arkham Exchange goes live in 17 U.S. states.
March 5 (provisional): At epoch 222464, testing of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade on the Sepolia testnet starts.
Macro
Feb. 26, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases January’s New Residential Sales report.
New Home Sales Est. 0.68M vs. Prev. 0.698M
New Home Sales MoM Prev. 3.6%
Feb. 26-27: 2025’s first G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting (Cape Town).
Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Q4 GDP (2nd estimate).
Core PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.2%
PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 1.5%
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 3.1%
Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases Unemployment Insurance Weekly claims for the week ended Feb. 22.
Initial Jobless Claims Est. 221K vs. Prev. 219K
Earnings
Feb. 26: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.13
Feb. 26: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $0.85
Token Events
Governances votes & calls
Frax DAO is discussing upgrading the protocol by renaming FXS to FRAX, making it the gas token on Fraxtal, implementing the Frax North Star hard fork, and introducing a tail emission plan with gradually decreasing emissions and other enhancements.
DYdX DAO is voting on distributing $1.5 million in DYDX tokens from the community treasury to qualifying users in trading season 9 as part of its incentives program.
Unlocks
Feb. 28: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $33.97 million.
Mar. 1: DYdX to unlock 1.14% of circulating supply worth $5.76 million.
Mar. 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.48% of circulating supply worth $12.81 million.
Mar. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 0.74% of circulating supply worth $68.90 million.
Mar. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 1.3% of circulating supply worth $16.47 million.
Mar. 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.63% of circulating supply worth $14.85 million.
Mar. 8: Berachain (BERA) to unlock 9.28% of circulating supply worth $70.90 million.
Token Listings
Feb. 26: Moonwell (WELL) to be listed on Kraken.
Feb. 27: Venice token (VVV) to be listed on Kraken.
Feb. 28: Worldcoin (WLD) to be listed on Kraken.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus to take place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 4 of 8: ETHDenver 2025 (Denver)
March 2-3: Crypto Expo Europe (Bucharest, Romania)
March 8: Bitcoin Alive (Sydney, Australia)
March 10-11: MoneyLIVE Summit (London)
March 13-14: Web3 Amsterdam ‘25 (Netherlands)
March 19-20: Next Block Expo (Warsaw, Poland)
March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town, South Africa)
Token Talk
By Francisco Rodrigues
Solana, often criticized over its inflationary monetary policy, is currently considering implementing a governance proposal to change it, SIMD-0228.
The proposal would introduce a dynamic, market-driven emissions model for SOL tokens and potentially reduce inflation.
The proposal would move the blockchain away from its current fixed emissions model that has seen SOL’s circulating supply increase to around 500 million tokens.
Elsewhere Story Protocol’s token, IP, has been bucking the bearish trend that gripped the cryptocurrency market over the last few days. IP outperformed the broader CoinDesk 20 Index as traders bet on the tokenization of intellectual property.
The industry ecosystem is also rallying behind cryptocurrency exchange Bybit after its $1.5 billion hack. The exchange has launched a “war against Lazarus” to crowdsource investigative efforts against the North Korean-linked group.
Derivatives Positioning
BTC’s one-month CME futures basis has dropped to 4%, the lowest in nearly two years, according to Velo Data. That’s a sign of weakening bullish sentiment. Ether’s basis has dropped to just over 5%.
Perpetual funding rates for TRX, AVAX, XLM, SHIB and OM are negative, reflecting a bias for bearish short positions.
BTC, ETH short-term puts continue to trade at a premium to calls, reflecting fears of a continued price drop.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 1% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $89,19377 (24hrs: -0.11%)
ETH is down 0.36% at $2,487.88 (24hrs: +2.19%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 0.42% at 2,882.89 (24hrs: +2.34%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 29 bps at 3.28%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.6% annualized) on OKX
DXY is up 0.17% 106.49
Gold is down 0.24% at $2,913.89/oz
Silver is down 0.78% at $31.78/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -0.25% at 38,142.37
Hang Seng closed +3.27% at 23,787.93
FTSE is up 0.54% at 8,715.19
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.14% at 5,510.13
DJIA closed on Tuesday +0.37% at 43,621.16
S&P 500 closed -0.47% at 5,955.25
Nasdaq closed -1.35% at 19,026.39
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.21% at 25,203.98
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.19% at 2,390.95
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.32%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% at 5,999.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.82% at 21,321.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.27% at 43,808.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.11 (0.13%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02793 (-0.75%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 746 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $52.40
Total Fees: 11.39 BTC / $1.1 million
CME Futures Open Interest: 164,970 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 30.5 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 8.66%
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin’s hourly chart shows the MACD histogram has been biased bullish since late Tuesday. Still, there has been little progress to the upside in terms of price.
The divergence between prices and MACD, coupled with the downward sloping key averages, suggests potential for another round of selling before a meaningful bottom is reached.
A convincing move above $90,000 is needed to invalidate the bearish outlook.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $250.51 (-11.41%), up 3.66% at $259.68 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $212.49 (-6.42%), up 2.04% at $216.82
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$20.09 (-7.84%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.41 (-10.62%), up 2.86% at $12.77
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.32 (-6.71%), up 2.79% at $9.58
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $9.76 (-1.01%), up 3.28% at $10.08
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.15 (-8.43%), up 1.96% at $8.31
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $17.04 (-11.25%), up 4.46% at $17.80
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $42.42 (-4.42%), up 2.5% at $43.48
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $39.86 (-3.16%), down 1% at $39.46
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$937.7 million
Cumulative net flows: $38.09 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,157 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$50.1 million
Cumulative net flows: $3.02 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.750 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The net selling volume in BTC on Tuesday was the strongest since May 2021, according to data tracked by Glassnode and Andre Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise.
Perhaps weak hands have capitulated, leaving the market in a much healthier state.
While You Were Sleeping
XRP, BNB Edge Higher as Bitcoin Bulls Eye $90K After Tuesday Bloodbath (CoinDesk): Bitcoin rebounded to nearly $89,000 with major cryptocurrencies XRP and BNB also showing signs of a cautious recovery.
Bitcoin’s Tuesday Bloodbath Was the Bottom, Analyst Says (CoinDesk): On-chain signals suggest limited further downside.
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs See Record Daily Outflow of Over $930M as Carry Trades Lose Shine to the 10-Year Treasury Note (CoinDesk); Tuesday marked the steepest single-day redemption for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs since their inception.
Circle Says Stablecoin Issuers Should Be U.S. Registered (Bloomberg): Jeremy Allaire, co-founder of stablecoin issuer Circle, said issuers of dollar-pegged crypto tokens should be registered in the U.S.
Treasury Yields Rebound Slightly, Dollar Undermined by US Growth Worries (Reuters): The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.3271% after the U.S. House passed a budget bill that paves the way for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts.
Top Finance Ministers Snub G20 as Global Co-Operation Comes Under Strain (Financial Times): This week’s G20 meeting in South Africa is notable for the absence of finance ministers from the U.S., China, Japan, India, Brazil and Mexico, prompting doubts about the forum’s effectiveness.
In the Ether
Circle, the firm behind the $60 billion USDC stablecoin, is launching a new payments and cross border remittance network on Tuesday — the company’s “next product move” — from its plush New York City headquarters, high on the 87th Floor of One World Trade Center.
The launch event is aimed at banks, fintechs, payment service providers, remittance providers and USDC strategic partners. It will feature Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire sharing his vision for the stablecoin giant’s next move within the payments space, according to an invite seen by CoinDesk.
New and incipient regulations around the globe are opening up the stablecoin space, where Circle has shared the limelight with larger rival Tether. It makes sense then that Circle — a firm that has successfully pivoted during its years in the crypto space — should look to consolidate its position and return to its roots as a payments company.
“Circle is launching a payments network that is initially targeting remittances but is ultimately aiming to rival Mastercard and Visa,» said a person familiar with the plans.
Stablecoins have reached an adoption level where the technology could disrupt global money transfers in a way similar to WhatsApp and international calls, VC firm Andreessen Horowitz said in recent report.
In a recent interview, crypto custody tech specialists Fireblocks pointed to billions being moved around by payments services providers doing things like cross border payments using stablecoins like USDC and USDT.
Circle was in the news most recently, after the firm announced plans to go public in the U.S., only to postpone the date of its IPO thanks to choppy and uncertain market conditions.
Circle did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Surging gold prices and bitcoin’s (BTC) relatively strong price action amid a global market sell-off have some traders revisiting the latter’s role as “digital gold” — a big narrative in bitcoin’s early years but one that has lost steam in recent times.
BTC zoomed above $87,000 in Asian morning hours, with Cardano’s ADA, BNB Chain’s BNB, XRP and ether (ETH) adding as much as 1.5%. The spike reversed all declines since Thursday, with tokens such as Solana’s SOL up 5.2% in the past week.
The tariff-driven trade wars have sparked fears of inflation and currency devaluation, prompting comparisons of the asset to gold’s historical role as a hedge.
“Although bitcoin has had a close correlation with U.S. equities, it seems to be changing with a stronger tie to the rise of the price of gold, which has been a safe haven while equities have plummeted,” Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message on Monday.
“Bitcoin crossed $87,000 as a sign of renewed investor confidence as the market continues to stabilize after panicking over tariffs. It’s also worth noting that Bitcoin’s digital gold narrative is taking off as both assets have grown in tandem,” Ruck said.
Gold set fresh highs Monday with a push above $3,380 per ounce, bringing year-to-date gains to 25%. Bitcoin has dropped more than 20% from a January peak of $108,000, though Monday’s push over $87,000 sent the asset to its highest level since Donald Trump’s “liberation day” in early April.
Pressure on the greenback has continued to grow as the dollar index (DXY) crashed to a three-year low, with some pointing out that most bad news has been “priced in” and that bitcoin could see upside in the coming days.
“Trump’s inclination to remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chair and force interest rate cuts is causing people to sell the U.S. dollar and U.S. government debt, moving to other safe haven assets such as gold, European bonds, and now, Bitcoin,” Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message Monday.
“After all, when rates are cut, more money flows into the money supply, devaluing the U.S. dollar. In general, downward pressure on the US dollar is growing and this could be a driving catalyst for Bitcoin to become a safe haven asset,” Mei added.
Meanwhile, here’s a machine’s view of the markets today, powered by the CoinDesk Markets AI bot.
ADA Price Analysis
- Cardano’s ADA is above 63 cents with strong technical indicators pointing to continued upward momentum despite macroeconomic headwinds.
- Price action formed a clear ascending channel with strong support at $0.612, which successfully held during multiple retests.
- Notable volume spike occurred on 2025-04-21 00:00 when volume reached 68M (3x average), propelling price through key resistance at $0.630.
- Fibonacci extension levels suggest 64 cents as the next target, with an overall range of 0.031 (5.1%), indicating substantial volatility.
- RSI remains below overbought territory despite the rally, suggesting potential for continued upward momentum.
- Consolidation near previous resistance suggests accumulation rather than distribution.
XRP Price Analysis
- XRP’s decisive breakout signals a potential end to months-long sideways trading, with technical indicators pointing to further gains ahead.
- Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential continuation toward $2.15, with the 61.8% extension pointing to $2.18 as the next target if bullish momentum persists.
SOL Price Analysis
- SOL breaks decisively above $135 resistance, surging 10.2% to establish new support levels with strong volume confirmation
- Key technical battle emerges between $129 support and $144 resistance zones, with on-chain data showing 5.75% of realized volume concentrated at these critical levels
- Price action formed a clear ascending channel with higher lows and higher highs, particularly evident in the April 19-21 rally.
- Volume significantly increased during upward movements, confirming the strength of the bullish trend.
- The 48-hour momentum indicators show bullish divergence with price maintaining strength above the 20-hour moving average.
BNB Price Action
- BNB breaks $600 barrier with 3.2% surge as large holders accumulate during market volatility.
- Recent quarterly token burn removed 1.57 million BNB worth over $1 billion, supporting price momentum.
- Open interest in BNB rose 3.3% to $760 million despite negative funding rates, with 68% of traders betting on continued price increases.
- BNB broke out of its consolidation range with a 3.2% surge from $592.63 to $601.74.
- Price action shows clear bullish momentum with increasing volume, particularly during the breakout candle where volume spiked to 55,661 units.
- Fibonacci extension targets suggest potential continuation toward the $605-610 zone if current momentum persists.
Publicly-listed Metaplanet announced fresh bitcoin (BTC) purchases on Monday as BTC went above $87,300, reversing last week’s loses.
Metaplanet picked up 330 BTC bring its overall holdings to 4,855 BTC, worth over $420 million, based on current prices.
This is the Japanese firm’s third bitcoin purchase this month, even as broader markets reel from tariff concerns amid a general lack of optimism. Earlier this month, Metaplanet became the tenth-largest public holder of BTC.
However, Metaplanet is not the only Japanese firm raking up bitcoin.Fashion brand ANAP Holdings purchase approximately 16.6591 BTC, valued at around 200 million yen (approximately $1.4 million), last week.
The holdings will be overseen by its subsidiary, ANAP Lightning Capital. The company plans to conduct quarterly market value assessments of its BTC holdings, with any gains or losses reflected in its profit and loss statements.
Its BTC yield from quarter-to-date is at 12.1% so far, with the previous quarter’s yield at 95%. BTC Yield is a custom metric used by the firm to assess the performance of its strategy. This measures the growth of bitcoin per fully diluted share.
Bitcoin has fared relatively better than U.S. equities in such a time of financial instability. U.S. equities lost $5.4 trillion in value in two days after President Trump unveiled his reciprocal tariffs earlier in April, which sent the Nasdaq tumbling down 11% at the time. BTC fell a relatively smaller 6%, in comparison.
Metaplanet’s stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is up nearly 0.9% since open.
Stablecoin Giant Circle Is Launching a New Payments and Remittance Network
BNB, SOL, XRP Spike Higher as Bitcoin ‘Digital Gold’ Narrative Makes a Comeback
Metaplanet Buys Another 330 BTC as BTC Moves Above $87K
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