Uncategorized
Crypto Daybook Americas: Risk-Off Remains the Theme as Market Settles
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market is looking to regain some poise after yesterday’s tumble with on-chain indicators showing signs of capitulation in bitcoin. Some tokens, like MakerDAO’s MKR, stand out with a 20% gain in 24 hours, thanks to the DAO’s buyback and burn process.
IP, the native token of decentralized intellectual property-focused blockchain Story Protocol, is also in the green, having risen nearly 40%. The token’s price has doubled in two weeks after being listed on South Korean exchanges.
Other notable outperformers include Celestia’s TIA along with XDC, QNT and HYPE. Data tracked by blockchain sleuth Lookonchain shows whales have been buying the dip in the HYPE token. XRP, meanwhile, is hanging on to a key Fibonacci level, keeping bulls’ hope for bigger gains alive.
According to Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, the crypto market is digesting the end of the recent memecoin frenzy, which could be replaced by productive sectors such as stablecoins, real-world assets and DeFi. «But until they start making their presence felt, the loss of energy will create a drag on the market,» Hougan said on X.
On the macroeconomic front, the optimism seen after the Nov. 4 election is being replaced by caution, as evidenced by Tuesday’s release of the U.S. consumer confidence. The gauge dropped to an eight-month low, and the one-year inflation expectations were highest for 1.5 years, with President Donald Trump’s tariffs singled out as the primary concern in almost every household and business survey.
The dour sentiment and a strengthening yen might keep the upside in risk assets restricted for some time. Earlier this week, Belgium’s central bank’s head, Pierre Wunsch, warned that the ECB risks sleep-walking into too many rate cuts. The Fed, for its part, is unlikely to do QE anytime soon. (Sure, the January meeting minutes discussed an end of quantitive tightening, but that does not mean quantitative easing.)
Speaking of key events to watch out for, the Senate Banking Committee, led by Senator Cynthia Lummis, is set to revisit crypto regulations during Wednesday’s scheduled hearing titled “Exploring Bipartisan Legislative Frameworks for Digital Assets.» Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Feb. 26, 8:30 a.m.: Cosmos (ATOM) network upgrade (to version v22.2.0).
Feb. 26: RedStone (RED) farming starts on Binance Launchpool.
Feb. 27, 4:00 a.m.: Alchemy Pay (ACH) community AMA on Discord.
Feb. 27: Solana-based L2 Sonic SVM (SONIC) mainnet launch (“Mobius”).
March 1: Spot trading on the Arkham Exchange goes live in 17 U.S. states.
March 5 (provisional): At epoch 222464, testing of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade on the Sepolia testnet starts.
Macro
Feb. 26, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases January’s New Residential Sales report.
New Home Sales Est. 0.68M vs. Prev. 0.698M
New Home Sales MoM Prev. 3.6%
Feb. 26-27: 2025’s first G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting (Cape Town).
Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Q4 GDP (2nd estimate).
Core PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.2%
PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 1.5%
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 3.1%
Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases Unemployment Insurance Weekly claims for the week ended Feb. 22.
Initial Jobless Claims Est. 221K vs. Prev. 219K
Earnings
Feb. 26: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.13
Feb. 26: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $0.85
Token Events
Governances votes & calls
Frax DAO is discussing upgrading the protocol by renaming FXS to FRAX, making it the gas token on Fraxtal, implementing the Frax North Star hard fork, and introducing a tail emission plan with gradually decreasing emissions and other enhancements.
DYdX DAO is voting on distributing $1.5 million in DYDX tokens from the community treasury to qualifying users in trading season 9 as part of its incentives program.
Unlocks
Feb. 28: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $33.97 million.
Mar. 1: DYdX to unlock 1.14% of circulating supply worth $5.76 million.
Mar. 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.48% of circulating supply worth $12.81 million.
Mar. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 0.74% of circulating supply worth $68.90 million.
Mar. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 1.3% of circulating supply worth $16.47 million.
Mar. 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.63% of circulating supply worth $14.85 million.
Mar. 8: Berachain (BERA) to unlock 9.28% of circulating supply worth $70.90 million.
Token Listings
Feb. 26: Moonwell (WELL) to be listed on Kraken.
Feb. 27: Venice token (VVV) to be listed on Kraken.
Feb. 28: Worldcoin (WLD) to be listed on Kraken.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus to take place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 4 of 8: ETHDenver 2025 (Denver)
March 2-3: Crypto Expo Europe (Bucharest, Romania)
March 8: Bitcoin Alive (Sydney, Australia)
March 10-11: MoneyLIVE Summit (London)
March 13-14: Web3 Amsterdam ‘25 (Netherlands)
March 19-20: Next Block Expo (Warsaw, Poland)
March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town, South Africa)
Token Talk
By Francisco Rodrigues
Solana, often criticized over its inflationary monetary policy, is currently considering implementing a governance proposal to change it, SIMD-0228.
The proposal would introduce a dynamic, market-driven emissions model for SOL tokens and potentially reduce inflation.
The proposal would move the blockchain away from its current fixed emissions model that has seen SOL’s circulating supply increase to around 500 million tokens.
Elsewhere Story Protocol’s token, IP, has been bucking the bearish trend that gripped the cryptocurrency market over the last few days. IP outperformed the broader CoinDesk 20 Index as traders bet on the tokenization of intellectual property.
The industry ecosystem is also rallying behind cryptocurrency exchange Bybit after its $1.5 billion hack. The exchange has launched a “war against Lazarus” to crowdsource investigative efforts against the North Korean-linked group.
Derivatives Positioning
BTC’s one-month CME futures basis has dropped to 4%, the lowest in nearly two years, according to Velo Data. That’s a sign of weakening bullish sentiment. Ether’s basis has dropped to just over 5%.
Perpetual funding rates for TRX, AVAX, XLM, SHIB and OM are negative, reflecting a bias for bearish short positions.
BTC, ETH short-term puts continue to trade at a premium to calls, reflecting fears of a continued price drop.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 1% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $89,19377 (24hrs: -0.11%)
ETH is down 0.36% at $2,487.88 (24hrs: +2.19%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 0.42% at 2,882.89 (24hrs: +2.34%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 29 bps at 3.28%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.6% annualized) on OKX
DXY is up 0.17% 106.49
Gold is down 0.24% at $2,913.89/oz
Silver is down 0.78% at $31.78/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -0.25% at 38,142.37
Hang Seng closed +3.27% at 23,787.93
FTSE is up 0.54% at 8,715.19
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.14% at 5,510.13
DJIA closed on Tuesday +0.37% at 43,621.16
S&P 500 closed -0.47% at 5,955.25
Nasdaq closed -1.35% at 19,026.39
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.21% at 25,203.98
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.19% at 2,390.95
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.32%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% at 5,999.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.82% at 21,321.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.27% at 43,808.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.11 (0.13%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02793 (-0.75%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 746 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $52.40
Total Fees: 11.39 BTC / $1.1 million
CME Futures Open Interest: 164,970 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 30.5 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 8.66%
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin’s hourly chart shows the MACD histogram has been biased bullish since late Tuesday. Still, there has been little progress to the upside in terms of price.
The divergence between prices and MACD, coupled with the downward sloping key averages, suggests potential for another round of selling before a meaningful bottom is reached.
A convincing move above $90,000 is needed to invalidate the bearish outlook.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $250.51 (-11.41%), up 3.66% at $259.68 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $212.49 (-6.42%), up 2.04% at $216.82
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$20.09 (-7.84%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.41 (-10.62%), up 2.86% at $12.77
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.32 (-6.71%), up 2.79% at $9.58
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $9.76 (-1.01%), up 3.28% at $10.08
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.15 (-8.43%), up 1.96% at $8.31
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $17.04 (-11.25%), up 4.46% at $17.80
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $42.42 (-4.42%), up 2.5% at $43.48
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $39.86 (-3.16%), down 1% at $39.46
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$937.7 million
Cumulative net flows: $38.09 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,157 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$50.1 million
Cumulative net flows: $3.02 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.750 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The net selling volume in BTC on Tuesday was the strongest since May 2021, according to data tracked by Glassnode and Andre Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise.
Perhaps weak hands have capitulated, leaving the market in a much healthier state.
While You Were Sleeping
XRP, BNB Edge Higher as Bitcoin Bulls Eye $90K After Tuesday Bloodbath (CoinDesk): Bitcoin rebounded to nearly $89,000 with major cryptocurrencies XRP and BNB also showing signs of a cautious recovery.
Bitcoin’s Tuesday Bloodbath Was the Bottom, Analyst Says (CoinDesk): On-chain signals suggest limited further downside.
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs See Record Daily Outflow of Over $930M as Carry Trades Lose Shine to the 10-Year Treasury Note (CoinDesk); Tuesday marked the steepest single-day redemption for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs since their inception.
Circle Says Stablecoin Issuers Should Be U.S. Registered (Bloomberg): Jeremy Allaire, co-founder of stablecoin issuer Circle, said issuers of dollar-pegged crypto tokens should be registered in the U.S.
Treasury Yields Rebound Slightly, Dollar Undermined by US Growth Worries (Reuters): The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.3271% after the U.S. House passed a budget bill that paves the way for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts.
Top Finance Ministers Snub G20 as Global Co-Operation Comes Under Strain (Financial Times): This week’s G20 meeting in South Africa is notable for the absence of finance ministers from the U.S., China, Japan, India, Brazil and Mexico, prompting doubts about the forum’s effectiveness.
In the Ether
Wall Street giant Citigroup (C) has launched new ether (ETH) forecasts, calling for $4,300 by year-end, which would be a decline from the current $4,515.
That’s the base case though. The bank’s full assessment is wide enough to drive an army regiment through, with the bull case being $6,400 and the bear case $2,200.
The bank analysts said network activity remains the key driver of ether’s value, but much of the recent growth has been on layer-2s, where value “pass-through” to Ethereum’s base layer is unclear.
Citi assumes just 30% of layer-2 activity contributes to ether’s valuation, putting current prices above its activity-based model, likely due to strong inflows and excitement around tokenization and stablecoins.
A layer 1 network is the base layer, or the underlying infrastructure of a blockchain. Layer 2 refers to a set of off-chain systems or separate blockchains built on top of layer 1s.
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, though smaller than bitcoin’s (BTC), have a bigger price impact per dollar, but Citi expects them to remain limited given ether’s smaller market cap and lower visibility with new investors.
Macro factors are seen adding only modest support. With equities already near the bank’s S&P 500 6,600 target, the analysts do not expect major upside from risk assets.
Read more: Ether Bigger Beneficiary of Digital Asset Treasuries Than Bitcoin or Solana: StanChart
Stellar’s XLM token endured sharp swings over the past 24 hours, tumbling 3% as institutional selling pressure dominated order books. The asset declined from $0.39 to $0.38 between September 14 at 15:00 and September 15 at 14:00, with trading volumes peaking at 101.32 million—nearly triple its 24-hour average. The heaviest liquidation struck during the morning hours of September 15, when XLM collapsed from $0.395 to $0.376 within two hours, establishing $0.395 as firm resistance while tentative support formed near $0.375.
Despite the broader downtrend, intraday action highlighted moments of resilience. From 13:15 to 14:14 on September 15, XLM staged a brief recovery, jumping from $0.378 to a session high of $0.383 before closing the hour at $0.380. Trading volume surged above 10 million units during this window, with 3.45 million changing hands in a single minute as bulls attempted to push past resistance. While sellers capped momentum, the consolidation zone around $0.380–$0.381 now represents a potential support base.
Market dynamics suggest distribution patterns consistent with institutional profit-taking. The persistent supply overhead has reinforced resistance at $0.395, where repeated rally attempts have failed, while the emergence of support near $0.375 reflects opportunistic buying during liquidation waves. For traders, the $0.375–$0.395 band has become the key battleground that will define near-term direction.
Technical Indicators
- XLM retreated 3% from $0.39 to $0.38 during the previous 24-hours from 14 September 15:00 to 15 September 14:00.
- Trading volume peaked at 101.32 million during the 08:00 hour, nearly triple the 24-hour average of 24.47 million.
- Strong resistance established around $0.395 level during morning selloff.
- Key support emerged near $0.375 where buying interest materialized.
- Price range of $0.019 representing 5% volatility between peak and trough.
- Recovery attempts reached $0.383 by 13:00 before encountering selling pressure.
- Consolidation pattern formed around $0.380-$0.381 zone suggesting new support level.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
Hedera Hashgraph’s HBAR token endured steep losses over a volatile 24-hour window between September 14 and 15, falling 5% from $0.24 to $0.23. The token’s trading range expanded by $0.01 — a move often linked to outsized institutional activity — as heavy corporate selling overwhelmed support levels. The sharpest move came between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC on September 15, when concentrated liquidation drove prices lower after days of resistance around $0.24.
Institutional trading volumes surged during the session, with more than 126 million tokens changing hands on the morning of September 15 — nearly three times the norm for corporate flows. Market participants attributed the spike to portfolio rebalancing by large stakeholders, with enterprise adoption jitters and mounting regulatory scrutiny providing the backdrop for the selloff.
Recovery efforts briefly emerged during the final hour of trading, when corporate buyers tested the $0.24 level before retreating. Between 13:32 and 13:35 UTC, one accumulation push saw 2.47 million tokens deployed in an effort to establish a price floor. Still, buying momentum ultimately faltered, with HBAR settling back into support at $0.23.
The turbulence underscores the token’s vulnerability to institutional distribution events. Analysts point to the failed breakout above $0.24 as confirmation of fresh resistance, with $0.23 now serving as the critical support zone. The surge in volume suggests major corporate participants are repositioning ahead of regulatory shifts, leaving HBAR’s near-term outlook dependent on whether enterprise buyers can mount sustained defenses above key support.
Technical Indicators Summary
- Corporate resistance levels crystallized at $0.24 where institutional selling pressure consistently overwhelmed enterprise buying interest across multiple trading sessions.
- Institutional support structures emerged around $0.23 levels where corporate buying programs have systematically absorbed selling pressure from retail and smaller institutional participants.
- The unprecedented trading volume surge to 126.38 million tokens during the 08:00 morning session reflects enterprise-scale distribution strategies that overwhelmed corporate demand across major trading platforms.
- Subsequent institutional momentum proved unsustainable as systematic selling pressure resumed between 13:37-13:44, driving corporate participants back toward $0.23 support zones with sustained volumes exceeding 1 million tokens, indicating ongoing institutional distribution.
- Final trading periods exhibited diminishing corporate activity with zero recorded volume between 13:13-14:14, suggesting institutional participants adopted defensive positioning strategies as HBAR consolidated at $0.23 amid enterprise uncertainty.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
Wall Street Bank Citigroup Sees Ether Falling to $4,300 by Year-End
XLM Sees Heavy Volatility as Institutional Selling Weighs on Price
HBAR Tumbles 5% as Institutional Investors Trigger Mass Selloff
-
Business11 месяцев ago3 Ways to make your business presentation more relatable
-
Fashion11 месяцев ago
According to Dior Couture, this taboo fashion accessory is back
-
Entertainment11 месяцев ago
10 Artists who retired from music and made a comeback
-
Entertainment11 месяцев ago
\’Better Call Saul\’ has been renewed for a fourth season
-
Entertainment11 месяцев ago
New Season 8 Walking Dead trailer flashes forward in time
-
Business11 месяцев ago
15 Habits that could be hurting your business relationships
-
Entertainment11 месяцев ago
Meet Superman\’s grandfather in new trailer for Krypton
-
Entertainment11 месяцев ago
Disney\’s live-action Aladdin finally finds its stars