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Crypto Daybook Americas: Retail Shift to Riskier Tokens Jolts Bitcoin, Ether

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The cryptocurrency market pulled back over the last 24 hours, led by declines in major coins as retail investors switched out of large-cap tokens and into smaller, more speculative assets.

Both bitcoin BTC and ether ETH dropped around 2% and the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broad market, fell 2.7%.

«We’ve observed a significant week-on-week increase in retail participation, reinforcing the broader narrative of rising optimism,» said Jake O., an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute. “The shift down the risk curve is most evident in retail screen flows.”

Institutional investors, for their part, have been more conservative. They’re still stocking up on bitcoin, ether and XRP, while easing off positions in solana SOL which has faced “sustained pressures.”

“Some are viewing SOLETH underperformance as an opportunity to position for Solana topside,” Jake noted, pointing to steady buying in $200 Solana call options ahead of June and July.

Other options activity suggests traders are hedging for volatility ahead. Call spreads on ether were unwound and some traders moved into collar structures — strategies often used to protect against price swings — signaling caution after recent gains.

The growing hedging activity adds a note of caution to retail’s swing to speculation. Economic uncertainty, lingering inflation pressures and U.S. tariff policy are all weighing on risk appetite in crypto as well as traditional markets.

Global asset managers, in fact, currently have their largest underweight position in the U.S. dollar in 19 years. Even though President Donald Trump secured a major investment deal with Qatar and a temporary reduction in U.S.-China tariffs, these outcomes may lead to further downside: Spanish bank Bankinter said in a note that the market has shown fatigue over the last trading session.

“We still think the damage is done: both EPS and prices should feel the strain, with rising inflationary pressures preventing the Fed from cutting rates as much as the market expects,” the bank’s analysts wrote. Market participants are set to now focus on producer price inflation and retail sales data, as well as on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later today.

For the crypto market, a re-test of the all-time high isn’t out of the picture.

“Looking ahead, we believe there is further room for digital assets to rally, especially as Coinbase’s inclusion into the S&P 500 on 19 May draws closer,” Singapore-based QCP Capital wrote. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
    • May 16, 9:30 a.m.: Galaxy Digital Class A shares to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol GLXY.
    • May 19: CME Group is expected to launch its cash-settled XRP futures.
    • May 19: Coinbase Global (COIN) will replace Discover Financial Services (DFS) in the S&P 500, effective before the opening of trading.
  • Macro
    • May 15, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases March retail sales data.
      • Retail Sales MoM Est. 1% vs. Prev. 0.5%
      • Retail Sales YoY Est. -0.5% vs. Prev. 1.5%
    • May 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April producer price inflation data.
      • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -0.1%
      • Core PPI YoY Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. 3.3%
      • PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.4%
      • PPI YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.7%
    • May 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases April retail sales data.
      • Retail Sales MoM Est. 0% vs. Prev. 1.5%
      • Retail Sales YoY Prev. 4.9%
    • May 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 10.
      • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 229K vs. Prev. 228K
    • May 15, 8:40 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will deliver a speech («Framework Review») in Washington. Livestream link.
    • May 16, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (Preliminary) May U.S. consumer sentiment data.
      • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 53 vs. Prev. 52.2
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • May 15: Bit Digital (BTBT), post-market, -$0.05
    • May 15: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.42
    • May 15: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market, N/A
    • May 15: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, N/A
    • May 28: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $0.88

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Uniswap DAO is voting on a proposal to fund the integration of Uniswap V4 on Ethereum in Oku and add Unichain on Oku in a bid to enhance Uniswap’s reach and liquidity migration to V4. Voting ends May 18.
    • May 15, 11 a.m.: Yield Guild Games to host a Q1 2025 community update Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
    • May 15, 10 a.m.: Moca Network to host a Discord townhall session discussing network updates.
    • May 21, 6 p.m.: Theta Network to host an Ask Me Anything session in a livestream.
  • Unlocks
    • May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $23.53 million.
    • May 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.09% of its circulating supply worth $14.22 million.
    • May 16: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.35% of its circulating supply worth $17.8 million.
    • May 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $39.06 million.
    • May 17: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.4% of its circulating supply worth $42.84 million.
  • Token Launches
    • May 15: RIZE (RIZE) to list on Kraken.
    • May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC and ETH perpetual futures open interest ticked up alongside an overnight spot price pullback, but funding rates remain positive. Perhaps traders are buying the dip.
  • Open interest in XRP perpetual futures has dropped, signaling an unwinding of longs.
  • Ether futures open interest on the CME has increased from roughly 685K ETH to 955K ETH in a week, reaching the highest since March 11. BTC CME futures have yet to see a similar uptick.
  • On Deribit, ETH risk reversals at the front-end have flipped negative to show bias for puts, or downside protection. BTC calls continue to trade at a premium.
  • OTC tech platform Paradigm noted mixed flows, with OTM BTC put spreads both bought and sold, while ETH OTM call spreads continued to be lifted.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 1.49% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $101,906.02 (24hrs: -1.52%)
  • ETH is down 2.54% at $2,540.80 (24hrs: -2.58%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 2.79% at 3,204.04 (24hrs: -3.66%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bps at 3.11%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0045% (4.8968% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is down 0.29% at 100.75
  • Gold is down 0.59% at $3,168.30/oz
  • Silver is down 0.85% at $32/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed -0.98% at 37,755.51
  • Hang Seng closed -0.79% at 23,453.16
  • FTSE is up 0.14% at 8,596.60
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.54% at 5,374.02
  • DJIA closed on Wednesday -0.21% at 42,051.06
  • S&P 500 closed +0.1% at 5,892.58
  • Nasdaq closed +0.72% at 19,146.81
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.3% at 25,692.45
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.18% at 2,645.42
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 3 bps at 4.51%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.51% at 5,878.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.72% at 21,239.50
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.32% at 41,982.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 62.77 (+0.31%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02490 (-1.23%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 861 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $54.63
  • Total Fees: 7.21 BTC / $747,357.79
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 149,720 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.9 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.04%

Technical Analysis

BTC's hourly chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • While BTC has pulled back from the recent high of $105,700 to under $102,000, it’s broader upward trajectory remains intact.
  • A break below $100,000 would invalidate the trend channel from April 9 lows, potentially leading to a deeper pullback.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $416.75 (-1.15%), down 2.35% at $406.95 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $263.41 (+2.53%), down 3.39% at $254.48
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at $31.96 (+8.74%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.87 (-3.05%), down 2.52% at $15.47
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.91 (-1.66%), down 2.24% at $8.71
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.32 (+0.78%), down 1.55% at $10.16
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.61 (-3.9%), down 2.29% at $9.39
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $16.95 (-1.45%), down 1.71% at $16.66
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.54 (-11.34%), down 1.72% at $31.98
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $34.88 (-17.03%), unchanged in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

  • Daily net flow: $319.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $41.37 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.17 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $63.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.55 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.44 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

CME: ETH futures open interest. (VeloData)

  • The chart shows a sharp rise in the number of open ETH futures bets on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
  • The surge indicates growing institutional participation in the second-largest cryptocurrency.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

As cryptocurrency continues to expand, here are the daily averages of new wallets created over the past month for the top 4 market capsMetaplanet delivered an impressive 170% BTC Yield in Q1 – turning #Bitcoin volatility into record profit and real shareholder value.CFTC is in a bit of a holding pattern until Quintenz is confirmed as chair, but then hopefully we'll see progress on new rules related to crypto:Nearly 1 million #Ethereum $ETH have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past month!CBOE Volatility Index $VIX just experienced its fastest reversal from over 40 to under 20 in history

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Asia Morning Briefing: BTC Slips Below $110K as ‘Signs of Fatigue’ Emerging

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin is trading below $110,000, changing hands at $109.7K, as Asia continues its trading week.

The move challenges a prevailing market narrative of summer stagnation, coming on the heels of a note from QCP Capital that emphasized suppressed volatility and a lack of immediate catalysts.

A recent Telegram note from QCP pointed to one-year lows in implied volatility and a pattern of subdued price action, noting that BTC had been “stuck in a tight range” as summer approaches.

A clean break below $100K or above $110K, they wrote, would be needed to “reawaken broader market interest.”

Even so, QCP warned that recent macro developments had failed to spark directional conviction.

“Even as US equities rallied and gold sold off in the wake of Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, BTC remained conspicuously unmoved, caught in the cross-currents without a clear macro anchor,” the note said. “Without a compelling narrative to spark the next leg higher, signs of fatigue are emerging. Perpetual open interest is softening, and spot BTC ETF inflows have started to taper.”

That context makes the current move all the more surprising.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin surged 3.26% from $105,393 to $108,801, with hourly volume spiking to 2.5x the 24-hour average, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model. BTC broke decisively above $106,500, establishing new support at $107,600, and continued upward into Monday’s session, reaching $110,169.

The breakout coincides with a tense macro backdrop: US-China trade talks in London and a $22 billion U.S. Treasury bond auction later this week have injected uncertainty into global markets. While these events could drive fresh volatility, QCP cautioned that recent headlines have mostly led to “knee-jerk reactions” that quickly fade.

The question now is whether BTC’s move above $110K has true staying power, or whether the rally is running ahead of the fundamentals.

(CoinDesk)

A ‘Massive Shift’ in Institutional Staking May Drive ETH’s Next Rally

Ethereum’s critics have long highlighted centralization risks, but that narrative is fading as institutional adoption accelerates, infrastructure matures, and recent protocol upgrades directly address past limitations.

“Market participants will pay for decentralization because it’s in their economic interest from a security and principal protection standpoint,” Mara Schmiedt, CEO of institutional Ethereum staking platform Alluvial, told CoinDesk. “If you look at [decentralization metrics] all of these things have massively improved over the last couple of years.»

There’s currently $492 million worth of ETH staked by Liquid Collective – a protocol co-founded by Alluvial to facilitate institutional staking

While this figure may appear modest compared to Ethereum’s total staked volume of around $93 billion, what’s interesting is that it originates predominantly from institutional investors.

«We’re really on the cusp of a truly massive shift for Ethereum, driven by regulatory momentum and the ability to unlock the advantages of secure staking,» she noted.

Central to Ethereum’s institutional readiness is the recent Pectra upgrade, a significant development Schmiedt describes as both «massive» and «underappreciated.»

«I think Pectra has been a massive upgrade. I actually think it’s been underappreciated, just in terms of the tremendous amount of change it introduces into the staking mechanics,» Schmiedt said.

Additionally, Execution Layer triggerable withdrawals—a key component of Pectra—provide institutional participants, including ETF issuers, a crucial compatibility upgrade.

This feature enables partial validator exits directly from Ethereum’s execution layer, aligning with institutional operational requirements such as T+1 redemption timelines.

«EL triggerable withdrawals create a much more effective path to exit for large-scale market participants,» Schmiedt added.

Ultimately, Schmiedt said, «I think we’ll see that a lot more [ETH] in institutional portfolios going forward.”

News Roundup

Trump Media May Be the Cheapest Bitcoin Play Among Public Stocks, NYDIG Says

Trump Media (DJT) may be one of the cheapest ways to get bitcoin exposure in public markets, according to a new report from NYDIG, CoinDesk recently reported.

As a growing number of companies adopt MicroStrategy’s strategy of stacking BTC on their balance sheets, analysts are rethinking how to value these so-called bitcoin treasury firms.

While the commonly used modified net asset value (mNAV) metric suggests that investors are paying a premium for BTC exposure, NYDIG’s Greg Cipolaro argues mNAV alone is “woefully deficient.” Instead, he points to the equity premium to NAV, which factors in debt, cash, and enterprise value, as a more accurate gauge.

By that measure, Trump Media and Semler Scientific (SMLR) rank as the most undervalued of eight companies analyzed, trading at equity premiums of -16% and -10% respectively, despite both showing mNAVs above 1.1. In other words, their shares are worth less than the value of the bitcoin they hold.

That’s in stark contrast to MicroStrategy (MSTR), which rose nearly 5% Monday as bitcoin crossed $110,000, while DJT and SMLR remained mostly flat—making them potentially overlooked vehicles for BTC exposure.

Circle Stock Nearly Quadruples Post-IPO as Bitwise and ProShares File Competing ETFs

Two major ETF issuers, Bitwise and ProShares, filed proposals on June 6 to launch exchange-traded funds tied to Circle (CRCL), whose stock has nearly quadrupled since its IPO late last week, CoinDesk previously reported.

ProShares is aiming for a leveraged product that delivers 2x the daily performance of CRCL. At the same time, Bitwise plans a covered call fund that generates income by selling options against held shares, two very different ways to capitalize on the stock’s explosive rise.

CRCL surged another 9% Monday in volatile trading, continuing to draw interest from both traditional finance and crypto investors. The proposed ETFs have an effective date of August 20, pending SEC approval. If approved, they would further blur the lines between crypto and conventional finance, giving investors new tools to play one of the hottest post-IPO names of the year.

Market Movements:

  • BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $109,795 after a 3.26% breakout fueled by institutional buying, elevated volume, and macro uncertainty from US-China trade talks and an upcoming $22B Treasury auction.
  • ETH: Ethereum rebounded 4.46% from a low of $2,480 to close at $2,581, with strong buying volume confirming support at $2,580 and setting up a potential breakout above $2,590.
  • Gold: Gold is trading at $3,314.45, edging up 0.08% as investors watch US-China trade talks in London and a subdued dollar keeps prices attractive.
  • Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.51%, as investors awaited updates from ongoing U.S.-China trade talks.
  • S&P 500: The S&P 500 closed slightly higher Monday, boosted by Amazon and Alphabet, as investors monitored U.S.-China trade talks.

Elsewhere in Crypto

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Bitcoin Climbs Above $110K, ‘At Crossroads’ for Next Major Move

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Bitcoin’s BTC quiet climb on Monday accelerated to its strongest price in June, rebounding from last week’s decline to near all-time high levels.

The largest crypto advanced by 3.7% over the past 24 hours, topping $110,000, and it’s changing hands by only 2% from its record prices observed in May. Ethereum’s ether ETH kept pace with a 3.8% gain during the same period, bouncing above $2,620. Native tokens of Hyperliquid HYPE and SUI SUI outperformed most large-cap cryptocurrencies, rising 7% and 4.5%, respectively.

Bitcoin’s move higher caught leveraged traders off-guard, liquidating over $110 million worth of short positions within an hour, CoinGlass data shows. Across all crypto assets, some $330 million of shorts were liquidated during the day, the most in a month. Shorts are seeking to profit from declining asset prices.

The move happened while traditional markets showed muted action, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes flat on the day. Crypto-related stocks bounced during the session to catch up with BTC’s recovery over the weekend.

«A ‘peaceful rally’ is a perfect way to describe this price action,» said well-followed analyst Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics. «Just a consistent development of higher highs and higher lows. Any signs of weakness? Buyers step in and defend the trend.»

The crypto market is now on steadier footing for a potential next leg higher after bitcoin’s 10% decline to near $100,000 and with more than $1.9 billion in liquidations across crypto derivatives over the past week, having flushed excessive leverage, Bitfinex analysts noted in a Monday report.

However, on-chain data indicates rising sell pressure from long-term holders that could overwhelm demand, the analysts added.

“Bitcoin is now at a crossroads—balanced between structural support and waning bullish momentum, waiting for its next macro cue,” the Bitfinex note added.

Those macro catalysts may come later this week, noted Jake O, OTC trader at crypto trading firm Wintermute.

«U.S. and Chinese trade representatives are scheduled to meet today, with markets likely sensitive to any headlines following last week’s positive momentum, and the data calendar remains light until Wednesday, when CPI will offer fresh insight into U.S. inflation,» he said.

UPDATE (June 9, 21:51 UTC): Adds short liquidation data from CoinGlass.

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Aptos’ APT Gains 4% on Significant Volume, Has More Potential Upside

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Aptos’ APT token rallied more than 4% on significant volume, with momentum indicators suggesting more potential upside, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.

The digital asset broke out of its consolidation phase between $4.65-$4.73, establishing strong support at $4.73 before pushing through previous resistance levels to establish a new local high, according to the model.

The token is currently 2.6% higher, trading around $4.86.

The broader market gauge, the CoinDesk CD20 was 1.75% higher at publication time.

Technical Analysis:

  • APT rallied from $4.65 to $4.85, representing a 4.3% gain with significant volume confirmation.
  • Price formed a clear consolidation pattern between $4.65-$4.73 before experiencing a decisive breakout at 09:00 with volume nearly doubling the 24-hour average.
  • Strong support established at $4.73 with subsequent price action forming an ascending channel with resistance at $4.85.
  • Substantial volume spike during the 16:00 candle (884,397 units) confirmed buyer conviction as APT pushed through previous resistance levels.
  • Price formed a distinct pattern of higher lows while encountering resistance at $4.85, which was breached during the 20:01 candle with significant volume (10,126 units).
  • Key technical development occurred at when price surged from $4.84 to $4.85 with strong volume confirmation (9,094 units).
  • Support at $4.84 held through subsequent retests, with final minutes showing decisive momentum suggesting potential continuation of the uptrend.
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