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Crypto Daybook Americas: Powell Will Set the Tone While Markets Eye Asia Battles, Trade

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

It’s Federal Open Market Committee day in the U.S., and while there’s little expectation of a change in interest rates, the market’s attention will be focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the FOMC’s press conference.

The CME’s FedWatch tool is pointing to a 97.6% chance of rates remaining unchanged and Polymarket traders are weighing a 98.3% chance, so it’s the outlook that will take center stage.

Spanish bank Bankinter said in a note that a potential rally attempt for risk assets would for now be “naive,” pointing to indicators showing main U.S. ports are seeing a reduction in containers from China, while Powell is “likely to strike a chilly tone on both future cuts and the inflation cycle.”

“We are entering a phase of unclear direction, probably sideways but with a weakening bias that may last for several weeks,” Bankinter analysts wrote.

Adding to the cautionary tone is the military flare-up between India and Pakistan. India’s “Operation Sindoor’ kicked off during Asian hours with strikes in parts of Pakistan, which has vowed to retaliate.

Still, spot gold retreated more than 1.7% as traders took an optimistic stance on a U.S.-China trade deal and cryptocurrency prices are rising after New Hampshire became the first state to allow the investment of public funds into crypto. Bitcoin (BTC) has added 3% in the past 24 hours and the broader crypto market, as measured via the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, rose 2.57%. That’s in contrast with equity markets, which fell Tuesday.

It’s still too early to say whether markets will focus more on the need for safe havens as international belligerence ramps up, or on the desire to lock in a bit more volatility as trade tensions ease. One possible signal: The largest bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s IBIT has attracted greater net inflows than the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), since the start of the year.

Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade went live, the network’s biggest upgrade since 2022. The upgrade includes 11 major improvement proposals (EIPs), but whether it can reverse ETH’s decline against BTC remains to be seen.

Year-to-date, ether has lost around 47% of its value to the leading cryptocurrency, with the ETH/BTC ratio now sitting at 0.019. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
    • May 8: Judge John G. Koeltl will sentence Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of the now-defunct crypto lending firm Celsius Network, at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
    • May 12, 1 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.: A U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable on «Tokenization: Moving Assets Onchain: Where TradFi and DeFi Meet» will be held at the SEC’s headquarters in Washington.
  • Macro
    • May 7, 2 p.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision. The FOMC press conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
      • Federal Funds Rate Target Range Est. 4.25%-4.5% vs. Prev. 4.25%-4.5%
    • May 8, 7 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision. The Monetary Policy Report Press Conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
      • Bank Rate Est. 4.25% vs. Prev. 4.5%
    • May 8, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 3.
      • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 230K vs. Prev. 241K
    • May 9-12: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to Switzerland.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • May 8: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $-0.11
    • May 8: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.88
    • May 8: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, $-0.10
    • May 8: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.52
    • May 13: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • May 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $7.75 million.
    • May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $47.82 million.
    • May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $54.17 million.
    • May 13: WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.41% of its circulating supply worth $1.13 billion.
    • May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $16.74 million.
  • Token Launches
    • May 7: Obol (OBOL) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate.io, MEXC and others.
    • May 8: Space and Time (SXT) to be listed on Binance, MEXC, BingX, KuCoin, Bitget and others.
    • May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN) and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • MOG Coin, an Ethereum and Base-based memecoin, is gaining traction on tech Twitter by fusing «mogging» (being better) with accelerationism (tech progress at all costs), birthing an internet-native ideology of mog/acc.
  • Technology entrepreneurs and investors such as Elon Musk and Garry Tan have joined the trend, switching their profile pics to Pit Viper sunglasses — a symbol of the mog/acc ideology — and Solana firms like Jupiter and Raydium have followed suit.
  • The mog/acc aesthetic is spreading fast thanks to viral tools like an auto-Pit Viper bot that converts profile pictures to the signature look of the movement.
  • Mog/acc differs from e/acc or d/acc by skipping intellectual or moral discourse and leaning into meme culture, performance and raw ambition as a form of techno-optimism.
  • Widespread adoption of mog/acc and the signature Pit Viper sunglasses could lead to increased mindshare for the MOG Coin token, which could boost demand and prices.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC and ETH annualized CME futures basis has retreated to 6% from 8%.
  • On offshore exchanges, BTC perpetual funding rates hold marginally positive while ETH’s funding rates have risen to near 10%, indicating renewed interest in taking bullish long bets.
  • On Deribit, BTC front-end skew flipped negative to suggest a bias for short-term puts. A block trade involved a large long position in the $90K put expiring on May 16.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 2.11% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $96.997.82 (24hrs: +2.88%)
  • ETH is up 3.31% at $1,844.39 (24hrs: +2.51%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 2.18% at 2,749.824 (24hrs: +3.35%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bp at 2.955%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.0006% (-0.6406% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is up 0.31% at 99.54
  • Gold is down 1.2% at $3,374.49/oz
  • Silver is down 1.29% at $32.76/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed -0.14% at 36,779.66
  • Hang Seng closed +0.13% at 22,691.88
  • FTSE is down 0.32% at 8,569.76
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.2% at 5,252.95
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday -0.95% at 40,829.00
  • S&P 500 closed -0.77% at 5,606.91
  • Nasdaq closed -0.87% at 17,689.66
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 24,974.72
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed -2.94% at 2,517.04
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.325%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.53% at 5,657.00
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.54% at 19,984.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.5% at 41,123.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 65.19 (-0.12%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.0190 (+1.28%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 897 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $51.79
  • Total Fees: 5.23 BTC / $494,601
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 142,100 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 28.3 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.04%

Technical Analysis

ETH's price chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • ETH’s daily chart shows the cryptocurrency has exited the prolonged downtrend.
  • However, the sideways move past the trendline doesn’t quality as a bullish breakout and the lower high of $2,104 created on March 24 is the new level to beat for the bulls.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $385.60 (-0.24%), up 2.7% at $396 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $196.89 (-1.26%), up 1.88% at $200.60
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$25.90 (-2.3%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.15 (+0.46%), up 2.74% at $13.51
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.86 (-0.51%), up 3.05% at $8.10
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.99 (+2.74%), up 2.22% at $9.19
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.09 (+0.0%), up 2.6% at $8.30
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.54 (+1.96%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.09 (-1.46%), up 4.2% at $34.48
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $39.48 (-4.36%), unchanged in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

  • Daily net flow: -$85.7 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $40.54 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.17 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: -$17.9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.50 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.46 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

BTC 1% market depth on Bybit. (Kaiko)

  • BTC’s 1% market depth on Bybit, the collection of buy and sell orders within 1% from the going price, has recovered to levels last seen before the exchange was hacked in February.
  • The recovery represents an improvement in the order book liquidity.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

The U.S. economy remains solid despite a negative GDP print in Q1. New Hampshire becomes the first U.S. state to pass a strategic $BTC reserve into law, authorizing the treasurer to purchase the world’s largest digital asset directly or through an ETP.Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, has positioned 39.2% of the firm's top holdings into $MSTR. Probably nothing#China has decided to agree to engage with the #US side.Since April 16th, there has been $5.13B moved into collective BTC ETF's, pumping markets.

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Bitcoin Challenges $105K on Positive Weekend Macro Headlines

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They crypto bull move continued into the weekend thanks to a trio of positive macro developments.

Likely most responsible for the move was a President Trump Truth Social post regarding trade talks being held in Switzerland between the U.S. and China.

«A very good meeting today,» said Trump. «Many things discussed, much agreed to,» he continued. «A total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner. We want to see, for the good of both China and the U.S., an opening up of China to American business. GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!»

Earlier Saturday, Trump also announced a «full and immediate» ceasefire in the brewing war between India and Pakistan.

Completing the trio of good news, Russian President Putin said he was «in the mood for serious talks with Ukraine,» and suggested talks «without preconditions» in Turkey next week.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to just a few dollars short of $105,000 before pulling back to the current $104,500, ahead 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH) has continued its recent outperformance, up 7.7% over the same time frame.

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Lido Proposes a Bold Governance Model to Give stETH Holders a Say in Protocol Decisions

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Lido Finance, Ethereum’s largest liquid staking platform by locked value, has introduced a proposal that grants staked ether (stETH) holders direct voting power alongside existing DAO tokenholders.

The upgrade, dubbed Lido Improvement Proposal (LIP) 28, outlines a dual governance system allowing stETH holders — those who stake ETH via Lido and receive a liquid token in return — to participate in a veto mechanism on key protocol decisions. Currently, only holders of LDO, Lido’s governance token, have a say in how the protocol evolves.

Under the new system, stETH holders could veto certain proposals approved by LDO tokenholders, though the veto would not enable them to push proposals through unilaterally.

The proposed system is framed as a mechanism to increase accountability and decentralization, especially as Lido continues to dominate Ethereum’s staking landscape. Over 25% of all ETH is staked on the network running through its infrastructure.

How it works

The Dual Governance system adds a special timelock contract between Lido DAO’s decisions and their execution, giving stETH holders a way to intervene if they strongly oppose a proposal.

The «dynamic» time lock is necessary because it is how on-chain governance technically works behind the scenes.

In the current system, decisions don’t take effect right away, as there is a set period before they’re executed. That gives users time to react if they don’t agree with certain changes.

However, Ethereum staking is different because one can’t quickly unstake or withdraw ETH, even with the current timelock. It takes time, liquidity is complex, and there is often a queue that could take several days to clear.

The new proposal wants to tackle that.

The proposed dynamic timelock assumes that, as enough users, who aren’t satisfied with a proposed change, deposit their stETH (or wrapped stETH and withdrawal of NFTs) into a designated escrow contract for withdrawal, the timelock duration begins to increase — this is called crossing the “first seal” (set at 1% of total Lido ETH staked).

If discontent continues and deposits cross the “second seal” threshold (10% of Lido’s ETH TVL), a «rage quit» is triggered: execution of the DAO’s decision is completely blocked until all protesting stakers have had the chance to withdraw their ETH.

This creates a sort of safety valve — allowing stakers to signal objection and exit — while still giving the DAO time to respond or cancel the contentious action.

The plan comes as Ethereum has surged more than 30% over the past week, riding momentum from its Pectra upgrade, which introduced execution-layer reforms to improve scalability and efficiency.

The rally has sparked renewed attention on Ethereum-native applications like Lido, which is critical in capital flow and validator participation across the chain — and directly impacts ETH market structure.

The LIP-28 proposal is still in its discussion phase, with a formal on-chain vote expected in the coming weeks.

If approved, the change could shift how governance is distributed across Ethereum’s staking ecosystem, setting a precedent for other DeFi protocols seeking to include users, not just tokenholders, in decision-making. Lido’s other competitors include Rocket Pool and Frax Ether.

LDO prices have risen 6.5% in the past 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 Index, a broader market gauge, climbed 2.5%.

Read more: Ethereum Activates ‘Pectra’ Upgrade, Raising Max Stake to 2,048 ETH

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State of Crypto: Mapping Out the Senate Stablecoin Bill’s Next Steps

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House Republicans unveiled a discussion draft of a market structure bill but all eyes this week were on the Senate, where a largely bipartisan effort to advance stablecoin legislation ran up against a wall.

PS: I’ll be in Toronto next week for Consensus. In town? Come say hi.

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

Unstable movement

The narrative

Stablecoin and market structure bills are the two big things around crypto that Congress is expected to get to President Donald Trump’s desk this year. There was a press conference by crypto and AI czar David Sacks with the chairs of the House and Senate committees. Everyone had this rough deadline of «before the August recess.»

Why it matters

Of these two bills, the stablecoin legislation was supposed to be the easier lift. It’s focused on just a part of the crypto sector, while the market structure bill will define how a much broader part of the industry operates and is overseen by federal regulators. And up until just over a week ago, the stablecoin bill was largely sailing through with few issues. Now — while it’s still expected to become law — the timing of its passage is far less certain.

Breaking it down

First thing’s first: No one this reporter has spoken to this week thinks the Senate’s stablecoin bill — the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act — is dead. According to multiple individuals familiar with the situation, lawmakers were already back to negotiating after Thursday’s failed vote, and lawmakers could vote again as soon as next week — potentially even Monday.

Thursday’s vote failed after Democrats raised an alarm last weekend that certain provisions around national security, the soundness of the financial system and accountability, though Republicans argued that ongoing stablecoin usage requires swift passage. U.S. President Donald Trump’s profiting off of stablecoins also raised alarm bells for lawmakers, senators introducing multiple bills that would prevent the President from issuing financial assets, including the «End Crypto Corruption Act,» which would block all members of Congress, the president, vice president, other executive branch officials and their families from «issuing, endorsing or sponsoring crypto assets

On Wednesday, one individual told CoinDesk that it appeared that a deal might be in place so that Democrats would get a vote on the End Crypto Corruption Act, either as an amendment to the GENIUS Act or as a standalone bill, ahead of the procedural vote on the GENIUS Act itself.

This ultimately did not happen, with lawmakers proceeding directly to the so-called cloture vote on Thursday; it fell 48-49.

The vote did not fail on party lines either: though no Democrats voted in favor of the bill, Republicans Josh Hawley and Rand Paul joined 46 Democrats in voting against the motion (Majority Leader John Thune initially voted in favor of the bill, but flipped in a procedural move that will let him bring the bill back for a vote later).

Among other issues was the fact that there was no bill text available at the time the vote kicked off.

The cloture vote, which would open 30 hours of debate, is likely the main piece of leverage Democrats have to try and get their priorities into the bill because it needs 60 Senators to pass. After the debate, there will be another cloture vote before the final passage vote, but it would be difficult for a lawmaker who voted to open debate to walk that back afterward, one of the individuals told CoinDesk.

Having their priorities sorted before getting to the final set of votes would also just generally provide more comfort to lawmakers, the individual said.

None of the individuals who spoke to CoinDesk expect that an actual provision blocking the U.S. President from issuing or being tied to an issuer of a stablecoin will become part of the final bill.

One of the individuals said ongoing negotiations are more focused on how foreign issuers are treated and anti-money laundering provisions.

A broader concern was that a hefty delay in passing the stablecoin legislation may slow down the process for advancing the market structure bill, which will rewrite the law around how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission oversee digital assets, including how cryptocurrencies might be defined as securities. A discussion draft was introduced in the House this week.

If the Senate votes on the stablecoin bill in the next week or so, it should not hold up the other bill, two individuals told CoinDesk.

Stories you may have missed

This week

soc 050625

Tuesday

  • 10:00 a.m. ET (14:00 UTC) The House Financial Services and Agriculture Committees were scheduled to hold a joint hearing on digital asset market structure, but FSC Ranking Member Maxine Waters objected and instead held her own hearing on Trump’s crypto tie-ups.

Thursday

Elsewhere:

  • (404 Media) It turns out former National Security Advisor Michael Waltz was not using Signal, but rather an unofficial version called TeleMessage, which was then hacked and later suspended services temporarily.
  • (The San Francisco Standard) Jeffy Yu appeared to fake his own death to pump a memecoin, or something. The once late Yu is alive and kicking at his parents’ home, the San Francisco Standard reported.

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!

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