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Crypto Daybook Americas: Memecoins Take Off on Tron While Bitcoin Looks to FOMC

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Cryptocurrency prices are seeing a slight recovery from Tuesday’s decline with bitcoin (BTC) gaining 0.5% and the broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) advancing 0.8% in the last 24 hours.

The drop came before the Federal Reserve’s policy decision due later today. Interest rates are forecast to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, so investors will instead be focused on macro outlook with a potential end to quantitative tightening (QT) in sight.

Since mid-2022, the Fed has been slowly shrinking its balance sheet, which inflated to $9 trillion to support the economy during the COVID era. An earlier-than-expected end to quantitative tightening, which has so far reduced the Fed’s balance sheet to $6.7 trillion, could boost risk assets like bitcoin.

An end to QT would see the Fed stop withdrawing liquidity from the market, potentially weakening the dollar and making crypto assets more attractive. Traders on prediction market Polymarket are essentially certain an end to QT will be announced before May.

Another boost for risk assets came from the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which held its benchmark interest rate unchanged, despite growing inflation in the country. The decision keeps Japanese bond yields steady, limiting the attractiveness of these assets and attracting less capital to traditional markets. Still bitcoin failed to respond.

Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative store of value has been seeing growing recognition. The number of public companies buying bitcoin has more than doubled to 80 from 33 in just two years, according to data from River. Strategy, the largest corporate holder of BTC, has even detailed plans to sell $500 million in preferred stock to buy more.

Yet, growing tariffs threats have reignited inflationary risks as economic growth stagnates. The result could be stagflation, a situation that wouldn’t please market participants. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

March 20: Pascal hard fork network upgrade goes live on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet.

March 21, 1:00 p.m.: The SEC’s Crypto Task Force hosts a roundtable, open to the public, that will focus on the definition of a security.

March 24 (before market open): Bitcoin miner CleanSpark (CLSK) will join the S&P SmallCap 600 index.

March 24, 11:00 a.m.: Bugis network upgrade goes live on Enjin Matrixchain mainnet.

March 25: The Mimir upgrade goes live on Chromia (CHR) mainnet.

Macro

March 19, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision. The FOMC press conference is likely to be live-streamed 30 minutes later.

Fed Funds Interest Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%

March 19, 3:00 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases GDP data.

Full Year GDP Growth (2024) Prev. -1.6%

GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4) Prev. 3.9%

GDP Growth Rate YoY(Q4) Est. 1.7% vs. Prev. -2.1%

March 19, 5:30 p.m.: The Central Bank of Brazil announces its interest-rate decision.

Selic Rate Est. 14.25% vs. Prev. 13.25%

March 20, 3:00 a.m.: The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics releases January employment data.

Unemployment Rate Est. 4.4% vs. Prev. 4.4%

March 20, 8:00 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision.

Bank Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%

March 20, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases employment data for the week ended March 15.

Initial Jobless Claims Est. 224K vs. Prev. 220K

Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1890K vs. Prev. 1870K

March 20, 3:00 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases Q4 employment data.

Unemployment Rate Prev. 6.9%

March 20, 7:30 p.m.: Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications releases February consumer price index (CPI) data.

Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3.2%

Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.5%

Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4%

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, $-0.02

March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Arbitrum DAO is voting on registering the “Sky Custom Gateway contracts” in the “Router contracts” to enable users to bridge USDS and sUSDS through the official Arbitrum Bridge UI.

Frax DAO is voting on introducing the WisdomTree Government Money Market Digital Fund (WTGXX) as an on-chain reserve for Frax USD.

March 21, 11:30 a.m.: Flare to host an X Spaces session on Flare 2.0.

Unlocks

March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $14.16 million.

March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $146.8 million.

March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $28.22 million.

April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $150.22 million.

April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.7% of its circulating supply worth $118.05 million.

April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $12.3 million.

Token Listings

March 19: Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) and DuckChain (DUCK) to be listed on Kraken.

March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Day 2 of 3: Digital Asset Summit 2025 (New York)

Day 2 of 3: Fintech Americas Miami 2025

Day 1 of 2: Next Block Expo (Warsaw)

March 24-26: Merge Buenos Aires

March 25-26: PAY360 2025 (London)

March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)

March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)

March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)

March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)

March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)

March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)

March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025

March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)

March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town)

April 2-3: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference (Bangkok)

April 3-6: BitBlockBoom (Dallas)

April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival

April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week

April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

More than 590 new tokens were issued on the Tron blockchain-based SunPump today, marking the highest issuance in four months and spurring Tron founder Justin Sun to post «tron meme szn» on X.

Sun later posted that trading fees will be «subsidized,» adding that every memecoin would be «back on Tron.»

SunPump allows instant trading without initial liquidity seeding, fueling the frenzy. It has pocketed $5.74 million in fees in the past 24 hours, reaching levels not seen since August.

Derivatives Positioning

Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) on centralized exchanges has risen above $55 billion, up 32% since Feb. 23, with OI in SOL and ETH futures remaining mostly stagnant. The market is clearly biased toward the leading cryptocurrency.

Positioning in the BTC CME futures, however, remains light, near February lows.

NEAR, TON and TRX are leading growth in perpetual futures open interest in the past 24 hours. NEAR stands out with negative cumulative volume delta, pointing to net selling.

Deribit-listed BTC and ETH options continue to show bias for short and near-dated protective puts.

Market Movements:

BTC is up 1.84% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $83,576.60 (24hrs: +0.88%)

ETH is up 2.04% at $1,945.99 (24hrs: +2.6%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 2.2% at 2,624.87 (24hrs: +1.6%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.96%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0071% (7.74% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.32% at 103.57

Gold is unchanged at $3,030.30/oz

Silver is down 1.24% at $33.70/oz

Nikkei 225 closed -0.25% at 37,751.88

Hang Seng closed +0.12% at 24,771.14

FTSE is down 0.15% at 8,691.31

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.15% at 5,493.38

DJIA closed on Tuesday +0.62% at 41,581.31

S&P 500 closed -1.07% at 5,614.66

Nasdaq closed -1.71% at 17,504.12

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.32% at 24,706.07

S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,476.87

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.29%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.23% at 5,682.25

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.32% at 19,764.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.16% at 42,004.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 61.62 (0.27%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02329 (-0.30%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 773 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $47.30

Total Fees: 5.13 BTC / $428,677

CME Futures Open Interest: 154,060 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 27.2 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 7.71%

Technical Analysis

BTC’s recent bounce toward the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is accompanied by a declining trend in daily trading volumes.

The discrepancy raises a question mark on the sustainability of the recovery.

Plus, the 50-day SMA has crossed below the 100-day SMA, a bearish signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $283.19 (-3.77%), up 1.95% at $288.47 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $181.14 (-4.14%), up 1.36% at $183.60

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.09 (-1.5%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.07 (-6.94%), up 1.74% at $12.28

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.40 (-4.64%), up 1.22% at $7.49

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.02 (-8.45%)

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.59 (-6.53%), up 1.98% at $7.74

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.25 (-7.29%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.49 (-1.5%), up 9.33% at $38.80

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $30.26 (-6.46%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $209.1 million

Cumulative net flows: $35.87 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1,116 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$52.8 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.47 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.472 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Programmable blockchain Solana leads other platforms with the highest number of daily active addresses and daily transactions despite a slowdown in the memecoin trading frenzy.

The data supports the bull case for the blockchain’s SOL token versus native coins of other smart-contract blockchains.

While You Were Sleeping

Investors Pump $22B Into Short-Term U.S. Debt to Ride Out Market ‘Storm’ (Financial Times): Investors, wary of Donald Trump’s economic policies, are moving into haven assets, with short-term Treasury funds seeing $21.7 billion in net inflows from early January to March 14.

Bank of Japan Keeps Interest Rates Steady, Warns of Trump Tariff Risks (Reuters): The central bank held its benchmark rate at 0.5%, as economists forecast. Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that future rate policy is likely to reflect the effects of tariffs imposed by the U.S.

Drone Strike Sets Fire to Russia Oil Depot Near Damaged CPC Link (Bloomberg): Despite a proposal discussed Tuesday by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, a key Russian oil depot was struck by a Ukrainian drone early Wednesday.

Raydium’s RAY Jumps 13% as DEX Reveals Own Token Issuance Platform (CoinDesk): The Solana-powered decentralized exchange Raydium is reportedly planning to launch a platform named LaunchLab to increase revenue and expand its user base.

Untangled Finance Brings Moody’s Credit Scores On-Chain (CoinDesk): The proof of concept system, powered by Polygon’s Amoy testnet, uses zero-knowledge proof technology to securely publish, update and withdraw credit ratings on-chain, protecting proprietary information.

North Dakota Senate Passes Crypto ATM Bill to Create Licensing Regime (CoinDesk): House Bill 1447 requires crypto ATM operators to issue fraud warnings, obtain money transmitter licenses, use blockchain analytics software for fraud detection, submit quarterly reports and appoint a compliance officer.

In the Ether

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Trump’s Official Memecoin Surges Despite Massive $320 Million Unlock in Thin Holiday Trading

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TRUMP, the memecoin tied to U.S. President Donald Trump, gained more than 9% in the past 24 hours following a $320 million token unlock. The price now sits around $8.40, still down more than 88% from its peak above $71 on Jan. 18.

The recent unlock may spell further trouble for investors, who are estimated to have lost a total of $2 billion after purchasing the token earlier this year.

Token unlocks typically flood the market with new supply and tend to depress prices. But in this case, the market appears to have priced in the release beforehand, potentially explaining the price uptick. Still, the $320 million unlock raises the risk of a large sell-off, especially given TRUMP’s thin liquidity.

Data from CoinMarketCap shows that just $1.3 million could move the token’s price by 2% on major exchanges. The move also comes during the Easter holiday weekend, when trading volumes are subdued and price swings can be more pronounced.

On social media, rumors are swirling about a possible event for large token holders, supposedly being organized by Trump himself. These claims remain unverified and highly speculative.

Data from Dune analytics shows there are currently 636,000 TRUMP token holders on-chain, with just 12,285 wallets having more than $1,000 worth of the cryptocurrency.

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Slovenia Moves to Tax Crypto Profits at 25%

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Slovenia’s finance ministry has proposed a 25% tax on capital gains from cryptocurrency starting in 2026, under a draft law aimed at closing a gap in the country’s tax system.

The tax will apply to profit made when individuals sell crypto for fiat currency or spend it on goods and services. However, swapping one cryptocurrency for another will remain tax-free, and any gains made before January 1, 2026, will not be taxed, according to the finance ministry’s proposal.

The measure is meant to treat crypto gains more like other capital investments, such as stocks or bonds, which are already taxed.

Under the law, individuals would calculate their profit as the difference between the value at acquisition and at sale, adjusted for transaction fees. Losses can be carried forward to offset future gains. Taxpayers would need to file an annual return by March 31 and make payment within 15 days.

The tax could generate between €2.5 million and €25 million annually, according to preliminary government estimates. The country’s Ministry of Finance is soliciting public feedback on the proposal, which would come into effect next year.

The proposal comes as data from the European Central Bank’s ‘Survey on Consumer Payment Attitudes in the Euro Area’ shows Slovenia has the highest share of cryptocurrency owners in the euro area, with 15% of adults holding digital currencies last year, up from 8% in 2022.

Disclaimer: Information collected for this article was translated with the use of artificial intelligence.

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Unpacking the DOJ’s Crypto Enforcement Memo

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Earlier this month, the Department of Justice disbanded its National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team and said it would no longer pursue what Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche described as «regulation by prosecution.»

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

‘Regulation by prosecution’

The narrative

The U.S. Department of Justice «will no longer pursue litigation or enforcement actions that have the effect of superimposing regulatory frameworks on digital assets» in lieu of regulatory agencies putting together their own frameworks for overseeing the sector, a 4-page memo signed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche on April 7 said. In other words, the DOJ will no longer pursue «regulation by prosecution,» the memo said.

Why it matters

The DOJ’s memo raised concerns that it may mean criminal activities in the crypto sector would not be prosecuted, or at least prosecuted as heavily as it was under the past several years — both by disbanding the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET) and by shifting the entity’s priorities.

Breaking it down

At a practical level, the memo itself is internal guidance but may not be a binding document. Multiple attorneys told CoinDesk they interpreted the guidance to indicate that the DOJ would still bring fraud or other criminal cases involving crypto, but would try to avoid any cases where the DOJ itself had to determine if a digital asset was a security or a commodity.

«Fraud is still fraud,» said Josh Naftalis, a partner at Pallas Partners LLP and a former prosecutor with the U.S. Attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York. «This memo does not seem to say the DOJ is not going to prosecute fraud in the crypto space.»

Still, the memo raised alarms for prominent Democrats who questioned whether the DOJ was suggesting it would let criminal conduct occur. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Mazie Hirono, Richard Durbin, Sheldon Whitehouse, Christopher Coons and Richard Blumenthal wrote a letter to Blanche, saying his «decision to give a free pass to cryptocurrency money launderers» and shut down the NCET were «grave mistakes that will support sanctions evasion, drug trafficking, scams and child sexual exploitation.»

«Specifically, the Department will no longer target virtual currency exchanges, mixing and tumbling services and offline wallets for the acts of their end users or unwitting violations of regulations — except to the extent the investigation is consistent with the priorities articulated in the following paragraphs,» the DOJ memo said, a passage the Senators’ letter referenced.

New York Attorney General Letitia James wrote an open letter to Senate leaders in the same week asking them to advance legislation to address cryptocurrency risks. She did not specifically reference Blanche’s memo but detailed possible ways to better police the sector through legislation.

Katherine Reilly, a partner at Pryor Cashman and a former prosecutor with the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, told CoinDesk that most of the major crypto cases brought by the DOJ in recent years would not have been affected had this guidance been in effect.

The BitMEX case in 2020, when the DOJ and Commodity Futures Trading Commission brought unregistered trading and other charges against the platform, is «probably closest to the line» of being a case that may not have been brought under this guidance, she said.

Trump pardoned BitMEX, its founders and a senior employee in late March, barely two weeks before the DOJ memo was shared.

«I think that it’s clear that the Justice Department wants to limit the DOJ’s role in regulating the crypto industry … looking beyond its role in other crimes, fraud, laundering proceeds from narcotics trafficking, things like that, and sort of take a step back from the role of trying to bring order and fairness to the crypto industry as a whole,» Reilly said.

That’s «probably the intent behind the BitMEX pardons too,» she said.

Naftalis said the DOJ will continue to pursue drug, terrorism or other illicit financing charges even under the memo.

«I think that the headline for the industry is to the extent that there are legal uses of crypto, they’re not going to set the guard rail by criminal enforcement,» he said. «That’s for Congress.»

One section of the memo tells prosecutors not to charge Bank Secrecy Act violations, unregistered securities offering violations, unregistered broker-dealer violations or other Commodity Exchange Act registration violations «unless there is evidence that the defendant knew of the licensing or registration requirement at issue and violated such a requirement willfully.»

Carla Reyes, an Associate Professor of Law at SMU Dedman School of Law, told CoinDesk that this may be referencing recent cases where developers build tools under the impression that they were not committing unlicensed money transmitting activities under existing guidance but may get charged anyway.

«Most criminal statutes require some level of knowledge to define your intention, and knowledge that you’re committing a crime when you do it,» she said. «The further away you get from that, the lesser the charge, but the more willful [and] intentional it is, the higher the charge.»

What the memo seems to want to explicitly move away from is any suggestion that federal prosecutors would interpret how securities or commodities laws might apply to digital assets.

«Prosecutors should not charge violations of the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Commodity Exchange Act, or the regulations promulgated pursuant to these Acts, in cases where (a) the charge would require the Justice Department to litigate whether a digital asset is a ‘security’ or ‘commodity,’ and (b) there is an adequate alternative criminal charge available, such as mail or wire fraud,» the memo said.

A popular critique leveled against former SEC Chair Gary Gensler by the crypto industry was that he was «regulating by enforcement,» rather than focusing on developing guidance for the industry to know what was or wasn’t acceptable. Blanche seems to be referring to a similar critique in the memo, Naftalis said, in that one-off enforcement decisions by the SEC or DOJ should not define the guardrails for the industry.

Steve Segal, a shareholder at Buchalter, said that some of the DOJ’s past cases would charge trading venues for failing to police their own customers. The memo now seems to suggest that if a crypto exchange’s executives were running a clean platform, and customers were laundering funds derived from criminal activities, the executives would not be charged. This is in contrast with, for example, FTX, where the executives were charged and convicted of (or pled guilty to) fraud charges.

«Of course, a lot of the big crypto cases we’ve seen over the last few years are sort of pure investor fraud, things like FTX. And one of the more interesting things about this memo is it talks about crypto investors and really prioritizing cases where crypto investors are being victimized,» Reilly said. «And so I don’t think we should conclude that this memo means we’re going to see a lot fewer cases in the crypto space, or that crypto companies can sort of breathe a sigh of relief that the DOJ is out of the picture for a few years.»

The DOJ’s future cases may appear a bit different in terms of the specific allegations made, but «it’s much too soon to say that everybody can assume the DOJ is out of the crypto business,» she said.

Many of the attorneys speaking to CoinDesk agreed that the memo itself did not clarify all of the different issues that may come up with a criminal case, nor was it an end-all/be-all document.

The memo announced prosecutorial discretion but it isn’t itself a law, Reyes said, adding that it may guide internal decision-making about which cases to pursue the most heavily, as well as the strategies that guide those prosecutions.

A lot of details about how this memo ties together with Trump’s executive order on the strategic bitcoin reserve still need to be spelled out, Segal said. Sections on victim compensation and how seized funds should be handled in the memo do not explain how the DOJ might handle situations where seized funds are turned over to bankruptcy estates, such as what happened with FTX or other similar scenarios.

«I think we’ll really have to see how it plays out, because this guidance, I do think, leaves prosecutors a lot of room to bring cases even of these kinds of violations that are being cast as more regulatory,» Reilly said. «So even if that’s the intent, I think the devil is in the details on what cases we see going forward.»

Stories you may have missed

This week

soc 041525

Monday

  • The Securities and Exchange Commission and Binance were set to file a joint status report on their discussions after a judge paused the regulator’s case against the exchange and its affiliated entities and executives in February. Last Friday, the parties asked for an extension of this deadline, and the judge overseeing the case signed off on Monday, giving the parties until mid-June to file a follow-up.

Elsewhere:

  • (The Wall Street Journal) Binance executives met with U.S. Treasury Department officials in March about potentially «loosening U.S. government oversight» of the exchange following Binance’s November 2023 guilty plea, the Journal reported. Binance agreed to a court-appointed monitor as part of the plea. At the same time as last month’s discussions, Binance was in talks with the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial to develop a dollar-pegged stablecoin.
  • (Fortune) Fortune spoke to and profiled Bo Hines, the executive director of U.S. President Donald Trump’s digital assets advisory council.
  • (CNBC) U.S. importers are seeing more «canceled sailings» due to a drop in demand as a result of tariffs, CNBC reports.
  • (The Verge) ICERAID claims to be a protocol on Solana where people can crowdsource images of «criminal illegal alien activity» in exchange for tokens, but it does not appear to have any connection to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), The Verge reports.
  • (NPR) The Department of Homeland Security is revoking parole for a number of migrants, telling them to self-deport from the U.S. U.S. citizens, born within the U.S., are also receiving these emails.
  • (The New York Times) Acting IRS Commissioner Gary Shapley has been replaced after just three days on the job, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly complained to President Donald Trump that he was not consulted on Shapley’s promotion, which was pushed by Elon Musk.

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!

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