Uncategorized
Crypto Daybook Americas: It’s Glass Half Full Despite Record Short ETF Volume
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
You know how it feels when you’re watching a match, both teams score and you end up with a draw? So, that’s the bitcoin market right now.
The bulls pushed prices above $103,000 early Thursday, only for the bears to bite back, crashing prices to $91,000. As it stands, we’re trading steadily around $98,000. Talk about undecided …
The crash shook out leveraged crypto futures bets worth around $1 billion, bringing a degree of normality to what had become an overheated market. That’s possibly a blessing in disguise, because had BTC surged all the way up to $120,000, the eventual leverage shakeout would have been even more severe and could have potentially damaged investor confidence.
The glass-half-full perspective is supported by bitcoin spot ETFs, which managed to pull in a net $766 million despite the chaos.
But there’s a glass-half-empty side too. The ProShares Ultra Short Bitcoin ETF, which tracks twice the inverse of bitcoin’s daily performance, also saw a net inflow as well as record trading volume. While the $7 million added is small compared with the long spot ETFs, it shows the bears are ready to make their presence felt.
If it all feels a little shaky, there’s more to come, with the chance of downside volatility if U.S. nonfarm payrolls data points to a resilient labour market and sticky wage pressures. That would prompt a recalibration of Fed rate-cut expectations and possibly hurt crypto prices. Weak data, conversely, could yield a price bounce, although trading directionally might be tricky while prices are this indecisive.
In other news, President-elect Donald Trump’s appointment of David Sacks as Crypto and AI Czar (which might seem like the opposite of crypto’s decentralization ethos) is being viewed positively for Solana’s ETF prospects. Why? Because at one point, Sacks was associated with the crypto hedge fund Multicoin, one of Solana’s early investors. It seems farfetched, but hey it’s a typical bull-market narrative.
Looking at the broader market, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is quickly approaching the $4.6 billion market value of Arbitrum’s ARB token in a move that indicates application-specific layer 2s like Hyperliquid are becoming the «real value capture mechanisms for DeFi applications,» according to Gautham Santosh, founder of Polynomial Protocol.
Gautham noted on X that building on general-purpose layer 2s could mean constructing someone else’s moat, essentially translating your success into their token value. He points out that while Arbitrum-based perpetual protocol GMX generates 54% more revenue than Hyperliquid, its market cap stands at just $376 million or just 8% of Hyperliquid’s.
That’s a lot to take in for today. So, as trader Alex Kruger said on X, «If you’re not a full-time trader, focus on portfolio construction.» Stay alert out there!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Dec. 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) Q4 FY 2024 earnings. EPS Est. $-0.18 vs Prev. $-1.02.
Macro
Dec. 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases November’s <a href=»https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm» target=»_blank»>Employment Situation Report</a>.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Est. 200K vs Prev. 12K.
Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs Prev. 4.1%.
Average Hourly Earnings MoM Est. 0.3% vs Prev. 0.4%.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY Est. 3.9% vs Prev. 4.0%.
Dec. 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases November’s <a href=»https://www.bls.gov/cpi/» target=»_blank»>Consumer Price Index (CPI)</a> data.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.3%.
Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.6%
Dec. 11, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada announces its <a href=»https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/» target=»_blank»>policy interest rate</a> (also known as overnight target rate and overnight lending rate). Prev. 3.75%.
Dec. 12, 8:15 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) announces its latest <a href=»https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/activities/mopo/html/index.en.html» target=»_blank»>monetary policy decision</a> (three key interest rates).
Deposit facility interest rate Prev. 3.25%.
Main refinancing operations interest rate Prev. 3.4%.
Marginal lending facility interest rate Prev. 3.65%.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
TK
Unlocks
Solana’s Jito to release 105% of JTO circulating supply on Dec. 7 at 10 a.m., worth nearly $500 million at current prices.
Neon to release 50% of NEON circulating supply on Dec. 7 at 10 a.m., worth $35 million at current prices.
Token Launches
Binance lists Across Protocol’s ACX and Orca’s ORCA, trading to begin at 8 a.m.
Futures of PolyhedraZK’s ZKJ went live on OKX.
Conferences:
Dec. 6: <a href=»https://www.digitalfinancesummit.com/» target=»_blank»>Digital Finance Summit Summit 2024</a> (Brussels)
Dec. 7: <a href=»https://www.myswitzerland.com/en-gb/experiences/events/konferenz-bitcoin-baden-2024″ target=»_blank»>Bitcoin Baden 2024</a> (Baden, Switzerland)
Dec. 9 — 12: <a href=»https://adfw.com/» target=»_blank»>Abu Dhabi Finance Week 2024</a> (Abu Dhabi, UAE)
Dec. 9 — 13: <a href=»https://www.blockchainweek.lu/» target=»_blank»>Luxembourg Blockchain Week 2024</a>
Dec. 12 — 13: <a href=»https://www.globalblockchainshow.com/» target=»_blank»>Global Blockchain Show</a> (Dubai)
Dec. 12 — 14: <a href=»https://www.taipeiblockchainweek.com/» target=»_blank»>Taipei Blockchain Week 2024</a> (Taipei, Taiwan)
Dec. 16 — 17: <a href=»https://theblockchainassociation.org/policy-summit-2024/» target=»_blank»>Blockchain Association’s Policy Summit</a> (Washington)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
Ethereum and Base memecoin mog (MOG) surged 40% to set fresh highs Friday on the back of a Coinbase spot market listing. It becomes the second-largest cat-themed token behind Solana-based popcat (POPCAT)
The memecoin is known for its distinctive branding around the meme of a cat laughing with tears (often represented by the «joycat» emoji 😹) and sporting Pit Viper sunglasses. This token doesn’t boast any intrinsic utility, thriving instead on its community-driven ethos and the virality of meme culture within the cryptocurrency space.
Meme coins often rely on community hype, and MOG has successfully captured a zeitgeist with its humorous and culturally resonant branding driving demand.
Its cult community often appears to ‘mog’ other token communities (a slang term for outperforming) on social posts or in replies on X — and that has become a meme itself, further fueling the token’s popularity.
Derivatives Positioning
BTC and ETH perpetual funding rates have normalized from previously overheated levels, with the ETH rate remaining elevated compared with BTC, suggesting a bullish bias for the ETH/BTC ratio. The positioning in SOL perpetuals is even more bullish.
The open interest-normalized cumulative volume delta has declined for most major tokens in the past 24 hours, indicating that the sell-off primarily resulted from the unwinding of long positions rather than fresh shorts.
Despite BTC’s quick retrace to sub-$100K levels, calls continue to trade at a premium to puts, although the spread is narrower than it was early Thursday. A similar dynamic is observed in ETH options.
A large bull call spread crossed the tape on Deribit, involving a long position in the $106,000 strike call and shorting the $110,000 strike call, both expiring on Dec. 27, according to data source Amberdata.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 0.82% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday to $98,196.16 (24hrs: -4.05%)
ETH is up 0.27% at $3,870.06 (24hrs: -1.93%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.29% to 3,954.73 (24hrs: -3.32%)
Ether staking yield is down 5 bps to 3.22%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0165% (18.05% annualized) on Binance
DXY is unchanged at 105.80
Gold is up 1.12% at $2656.00/oz
Silver is up 1.73% to $31.67/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -0.77% at 39,091.17
Hang Seng closed +1.56% at 19,865.85
FTSE is unchanged at 8,354.46
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.56% at 4,979.24
DJIA closed on Thursday -0.55% to 44,765.71
S&P 500 closed -0.19% at 6,075.11
Nasdaq closed -0.18% at 19,700.26
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.15% at 25,635.73
S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.37% at 2,368.14
U.S. 10-year Treasury was unchanged at 4.18%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,083.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 21,465.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 44,846.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 55.76% (0.10%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03937 (1.08%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 800 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $63.02
Total Fees: 14.28 BTC/ $1.4M
CME Futures Open Interest: 518K BTC
BTC priced in gold: 37.3 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 10.62%
Bitcoin sitting in over-the-counter desk balances: 423.84k
Basket Performance
Technical Analysis
The chart shows the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. currency’s value against major peers, has dived out of a trendline, characterizing the steep rally from late September lows.
Renewed losses in DXY will likely ease financial conditions further, supporting more risk-taking in financial markets.
TradFi Assets
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $386.4 (-4.83%), up 0.47% at $388.23 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $320.57 (-3.13%), up 0.83% at $323.24 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.65 (-0.22%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $24.79 (-4.51%), down 0.69% at $24.96 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.32 (-4.86%), up 0.16% at $12.34 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.94 (-3.03%), down 1% at $16.77 in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.93 (-5.11%), up 0.5% at $14.00 in pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $28.91 (-2.07%), up 0.83% at $29.15 in pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $58.55 (-7.65%), up 1.95% at $59.69 in pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net inflow: $766.7 million
Cumulative net inflows: $33.03 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.092 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net inflow: $428.5 million
Cumulative net inflows: $1.32 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.158 million.
Source: <a href=»https://farside.co.uk/» target=»_blank»>Farside Investors</a>
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The daily stablecoin transfer volume has surged to nearly $150 billion, the most since May.
Stablecoins are widely used to fund cryptocurrency purchases, derivatives trading and to move capital across borders.
While You Were Sleeping
<a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/12/05/trump-names-david-sacks-as-ai-and-crypto-czar» target=»_blank»>Trump Names David Sacks as ‘AI and Crypto Czar'</a> (CoinDesk): President-elect Donald Trump appointed David Sacks as his czar for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, aiming to boost U.S. leadership in these sectors. Sacks, a PayPal veteran and venture capitalist, will prioritize cryptocurrency regulation and safeguarding free speech while addressing concerns over Big Tech bias.
<a href=»https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-05/macron-says-he-will-serve-out-remainder-of-his-term-until-2027″ target=»_blank»>Macron Vows to Serve Remainder of Term as French President</a> (Bloomberg): French President Emmanuel Macron vowed to serve out his term through 2027, calling for unity after his government was ousted in a no-confidence vote. He pledged to appoint a new prime minister within days to form a government and address France’s stalled budget crisis.
<a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/05/memecoins-reach-140-b-market-cap-and-gain-ground-in-crypto-economy» target=»_blank»>Memecoins Reach $140B Market Cap and Gain Ground in Crypto Economy</a> (CoinDesk): Memecoins, led by dogecoin, have grown 330 percent in market value since Jan. 1, and now account for 3.16% of the crypto market and 5.27% of total trading volume. The growth of new tokens and activity on platforms like Solana has raised questions about the sector’s long-term stability.
<a href=»https://www.ft.com/content/359a95ec-72b2-4e83-b16f-4778fc7f2834″ target=»_blank»>Investors Poured $140B Into U.S. Stock Funds After Trump Election Victory</a> (Financial Times): The S&P 500 climbed 5.3 percent in November as investors poured $139.5 billion into U.S. equity funds, the strongest monthly inflow on record, driven by optimism over President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-growth agenda. Meanwhile, equity markets in emerging economies, Europe, and Japan suffered significant outflows amid trade tension fears.
<a href=»https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/06/india-keeps-interest-rate-unchanged-amid-rising-inflation-risks-and-a-slowing-economy-.html» target=»_blank»>India’s Central Bank Revises Down Economic Growth Forecast for 2025, Keeps Interest Rate Steady</a> (CNBC): India’s central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at 6.5% on Friday, citing a need to balance rising inflation with economic growth. It also reduced banks’ cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to 4.0% to support liquidity. The RBI downgraded its fiscal 2025 GDP growth forecast to 6.6%, reflecting concerns over a slowing economy.
<a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/05/top-nft-brand-pudgy-penguins-to-release-pengu-token» target=»_blank»>Top NFT Brand Pudgy Penguins to Release PENGU Token</a> (CoinDesk): Pudgy Penguins, a top NFT collection, plans to launch a token called PENGU on Solana this year, with 23.5% of its 88 billion supply reserved for holders of related NFTs. Despite the NFT market downturn, Pudgy Penguins’ strong cultural relevance positions it well in a market now favoring memecoins over NFTs.
In the Ether
The week has begun on an interesting note, with the U.S. dollar crashing to three-year lows alongside losses on Wall Street, yet bitcoin, which usually follows the sentiment on Wall Street, stands tall.
This could just be the beginning.
The shift away from the USD and toward seizure and censorship-resistant assets like BTC and stablecoins could accelerate if President Donald Trump follows through with his reported plans to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have pushed the DXY and U.S. stock markets lower today.
That’s the lesson from Turkey, which has seen its currency, the lira (TRY), collapse over the years mainly due to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s repeated interference in the central bank’s operations. The sliding lira has triggered a capital flight into BTC and stablecoins since at least 2020-21.
Trump’s issues with the Fed
Trump has feuded publicly with the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, for years, criticizing Powell for being too late on rate cuts even during his first term when interest rates were way lower than today.
However, Trump’s criticism has recently reached a fever pitch with reports suggesting he is looking for ways to get rid of Powell, who recently warned of stagflation even as the President reiterated calls for lower borrowing costs while suggesting there is no inflation.
Powell’s patient approach follows a trade war-led spike in survey-based measures of inflation expectations, which could always become self-fulfilling.
Still, on Monday, Trump went further, calling Powell a «major loser» and warning that the economy could slow down unless interest rates are immediately lowered.
Lesson From Turkey
Erdogan began interfering in the central bank’s operations in 2019, and since then, the lira has collapsed sevenfold from 5.3 per dollar to 38 per dollar.
It all started with Turkey’s inflation rate reaching double digits in 2017. It remained elevated in the subsequent year, which prompted the country’s central bank to increase the one-week repo rate from 17.5% to 24% in September 2018.
The move likely didn’t go well with Erodgan, who issued the first decree dismissing Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) governor Murat Cetinkaya in July 2019. From then on until the end of 2021, Erdogan issued multiple decrees dismissing and hiring several CBT officials. Amid all this, inflation remained elevated, and the lira continued to depreciate at an alarming rate.
«We certainly don’t believe in high interest rates. We will pull down inflation and exchange rates with low-rate policy … High rates make the rich richer, the poor poorer. We won’t let that happen,» Erdogan said in 2021.
As of 2025, Turkey faces an inflation rate of nearly 40%, according to data source TradingEconomics.
This episode serves as a cautionary tale for Trump, highlighting that tampering with central bank independence — especially in the face of looming inflation — can erode investor confidence and send the domestic currency into a tailspin.
This does not necessarily mean that the USD will crash exactly like lira but may see significant devaluation.
Perhaps it could prove even more destabilizing for global markets, considering the dollar is a global reserve currency, and the U.S. Treasury market is the bedrock for international finance.
If better sense fails to prevail, U.S. investors may feel incentivized to move away from U.S. assets and into BTC and other alternative investments, just as Turks did.
Uncategorized
Bitcoin Holding Near $87k While Stocks Slump a ‘Strong Sign’ of Maturing BTC Sentiment
Bitcoin (BTC) is taking a stand even as the broader stock market keeps sliding down to its tariff-related lows on Easter Monday.
The top cryptocurrency is up 2.3% in the last 24 hours and now trading for $86,800 for the first time since April 3—the day after the Trump administration unveiled its new tariff policy. Mainly buoyed by bitcoin, the broader market gauge CoinDesk 20 Index has risen 1.17% in the same period of time, with most tokens relatively unchanged.
Crypto-linked stocks have also remained stable, with Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) down 1.2% and 1.3% respectively, and major bitcoin miners such as MARA Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Core Scientific (CORZ) slumping between 2% and 3%.
The crypto market’s resilience is noteworthy considering that the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones have gone lower by 3.35%, 3.5% and 3.27% respectively, making their way back down to the tariff-related lows of two weeks ago.
Gold, meanwhile, is up 2.9% and is now trading for $3,400, while the DXY (an index that measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of other currencies) reached its lowest level in three years.
“Was today’s tandem rally in bitcoin and gold merely holiday-driven noise, or a meaningful shift towards bitcoin as a safe-haven asset? The latter would mark a material change in how traditional finance views bitcoin,» analysts at crypto trading firm QCP Capital wrote.
«With Europe still on holiday, market confirmation may take a few more sessions. The correlation between bitcoin, gold and equities is one to watch closely.»
Meanwhile, Lawrence McDonald, former head of U.S. Macro Strategy at French investment bank Société Générale, said that it may be time to sell gold in favor of bitcoin.
“Bitcoin has NEVER held up this well with a VIX near 30,” he posted on X, calling bitcoin’s resilience a game-changer. “This is a strong sign of a maturing bitcoin market (good news) and colossal encroaching fiat currency stress, USD.”
The weakness of stocks and the U.S. dollar, put into perspective with bitcoin and gold’s strength, may be due to investors’ concerns about Trump potentially looking to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Earlier on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump continued putting pressure on Powell, whom he called a “major loser” in a Truth Social post, sending an already shaky stock market even lower.
Trump demanded that Powell and his team lower interest rates “NOW,” arguing that there is currently “virtually no inflation” and that costs for many things are declining. Nevertheless, Trump said there’s a threat that the economy will slow down unless the Fed cuts rates.
Powell’s term, which started when he was appointed by Trump himself during his first four years in the Oval Office, is set to end in May 2026, but Trump has been trying to find a legal way to fire Powell beforehand.
The Fed Chair has previously argued that there is no possible way for the U.S. President to remove him under the law.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared a new proposal over the weekend that would radically overhaul the system that powers its smart contracts.
Buterin’s suggestion, which he posted on Ethereum’s primary developer forum, involves replacing the Ethereum Virtual Machine, the software engine that powers programs on the network, with RISC-V, a popular open-source framework that offers built-in encryption and other benefits. .
The EVM is a key piece of Ethereum’s underlying design and has been seen as one of the main elements that helped the network succeed in a crowded field of other blockchains. Many non-Ethereum networks have used the EVM to build their own chains, as has a growing ecosystem of layer-2 networks built atop Ethereum, including Coinbase’s Base chain.
The EVM has long played an essential role in Ethereum’s development. Other chains that use it can seamlessly connect with apps on Ethereum, and developers on EVM-based networks can transition more smoothly to building applications directly within the Ethereum ecosystem.
Buterin argued that transitioning Ethereum to a RISC-V architecture will “greatly improve the efficiency of the Ethereum execution layer, resolving one of the primary scaling bottlenecks, and can also greatly improve the execution layer’s simplicity.” (The execution layer is the part of the network that reads smart contracts.)
The RISC-V architecture, which has seen limited adoption in other blockchain ecosystems, like Polkadot, could offer «efficiency gains over 100x» for certain kinds of applications, according to Buterin. These improvements could reduce the network’s costs — long seen as a major barrier to adoption.
Among the primary benefits of RISC-V is its native support for certain kinds of encryption. Transitioning to the new architecture could, in Buterin’s view, be a simpler alternative to the community’s current plan, which involves rebuilding the EVM around zero-knowledge cryptography.
Buterin’s proposal is something developers would tackle over the long term, comparable to projects like the Beam Chain, which is looking to revamp Ethereum’s consensus layer.
The RISC-V comes at a time of broader soul-searching for the Ethereum community. Recently, transaction volumes have declined, and Ethereum’s token has lagged behind the broader market.
Earlier this year, the Ethereum Foundation, the primary non-profit that supports the development of the broader Ethereum ecosystem, underwent a leadership transition in an attempt to remedy the impression among community members that the ecosystem lacked a clear roadmap and was losing its lead compared to competitors.
Read more: Top Ethereum Researcher’s Dramatic Proposal Draws Standing-Room-Only Crowd in Bangkok
Can Bitcoin Benefit From Trump Firing Powell? Turkey’s Lira Crisis May Provide Clues
Bitcoin Holding Near $87k While Stocks Slump a ‘Strong Sign’ of Maturing BTC Sentiment
Vitalik Buterin Proposes Replacing Ethereum’s EVM With RISC-V
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