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Crypto Daybook Americas: China’s DeepSeek Sends Bitcoin, AI Tokens, Stocks Tumbling

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Last week, we described bitcoin above $100,000 as a coiled spring ready to unleash energy in either direction. Unfortunately for the bulls, that energy is being released downward as market sentiment shifts in response to concerns over the impact of the low-cost Chinese AI startup DeepSeek on the U.S. AI sector and American technological leadership.

Bitcoin plummeted to $97,800 during Asian trading hours, with whales driving prices lower to liquidate overleveraged buyers on perpetual futures exchanges. GPU-heavy AI tokens saw sell-offs of up to 40%, with similar pressure affecting GameFi assets.

Nasdaq futures tanked 700 points, with shares in chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) indicated 10% lower in pre-market trading. DeepSeek-R1 is expected to significantly reduce the costs of developing large language models, raising a questions on the validity of the rich valuations for AI-associated companies like Nvidia.

Trader and analyst Alex Kruger noted on X, «The problem is, few understand how DeepSeek changes things. it’s hard to quantify the issue—and when facing uncertainty, people derisk. When this happens in low liquidity conditions, the market flushes hard.»

Kruger is opting not to buy the dip, saying he prefers to short positions above $100,000 as he anticipates heightened volatility from the upcoming Fed meeting and potential political maneuvering from President Donald Trump. The Fed is expected to reiterate its wait-and-see approach, maintaining its hawkish December guidance on interest rates.

Still, all is not lost. Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, said institutional participation could ramp up in the coming months.

«The next wave up will likely come from organic participation from institutions in the next 3-4 months. I’d be surprised to see a sharp bounce back to all-time highs before Q2,» he said in an email.

Howard identified newly launched layer-1 blockchains with a focus on security and transactions per second, like SUPRA, as valuable opportunities, while stressing that for long-biased funds, discovering alpha in a bearish market involves seeking out low market-cap layer-1s alongside their already established peers. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

Jan. 27 (provisional): Abstract, an Ethereum L2, has its mainnet launch, which is expected to expand the reach of the Pudgy Penguins project beyond NFTs.

Jan. 28, 1:00 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) network upgrade to v0.57.5.

Jan. 29: Cardano’s Plomin hard fork network upgrade.

Jan. 29: Ice Open Network (ION) mainnet launch.

Feb. 2, 8:00 p.m.: Core blockchain Athena hard fork network upgrade (v1.0.14)

Feb. 4: MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) Q4 FY 2024 earnings report.

Feb. 4: Pepecoin (PEPE) halving. At block 400,000, the reward will drop to 31,250 PEPE.

Feb. 5, 3:00 p.m.: Boba Network’s Holocene hard fork network upgrade for its Ethereum-based L2 mainnet.

Feb. 6, 8:00 a.m.: Shentu Chain network upgrade (v2.14.0).

Feb. 12: Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) Q4 2024 earnings report.

Feb. 15: Qtum (QTUM) hard fork network upgrade is scheduled to take place at block 4,590,000.

Feb. 18 (after market close): Semler Scientific (SMLR) Q4 2024 earnings report.

Feb. 20: Coinbase Global (COIN) Q4 2024 earnings report.

Macro

Jan. 27, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases December 2024’s Monthly New Residential Sales report.

New Home Sales Est. 0.67M vs. Prev. 0.664M.

New Home Sales MoM Prev. 5.9%.

Jan. 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases December Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments Inventories and Orders.

MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. -1.1%.

Jan. 28, 1:00 p.m.: The Fed releases December’s H.6 (Money Stock Measures) report.

Money Supply Prev. $21.45T.

Jan. 29, 12:00 a.m.: Japan’s Cabinet Office releases January’s Consumer Confidence Survey.

Consumer Confidence Index Est. 36.5 vs. Prev. 36.2.

Jan. 29, 4:00 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) releases December 2024’s Monetary Developments in the Euro Area report.

M3 Money Supply YoY Est. 3.8% vs. Prev. 3.8%.

Jan. 29, 8:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada (BoC) releases the (quarterly) Monetary Policy Report.

Jan. 29, 9:45 a.m.: The BoC announces its interest rate decision.

Est. 3% vs. Prev. 3.25% followed by a press conference at 10:30 a.m.

Jan. 29, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces the U.S. central bank’s latest interest rate decision.

Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate Est. 4.25% to 4.5% vs. Prev.: 4.25% to 4.5% followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Livestream link.

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Compound DAO is voting whether to implement interest-rate curve adjustments for Stablecoin Comets across multiple networks, including Ethereum and Base.

Clover Finance DAO is voting whether to rebrand the CLV Network to Lucent Network to align with a pivot toward building a decentralized finance and artificial intelligence platform (DeFAI). The rebrand would include a migration from Polkadot to an SVM chain and a new token ticker, LUX.

Arbitrum DAO is voting on a proposal to establish the Arbitrum Strategic Objective Setting (SOS), which would allow DAO members to propose and vote on short to mid-term objectives.

Unlocks

Jan. 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $52.9 million.

Jan. 31: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 41.5% of circulating supply worth $626 million.

Feb. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlocked approximately 2.13% of its circulating supply worth $226 million.

Token Listings

Jan. 28: Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) and Magic Eden (ME) to be listed on Kraken.

Jan. 29: Cronos (CRO), Movement (MOVE) and Usual (USUAL) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences:

Jan. 29-31: Crypto Peaks 2025 (Palisades, California)

Jan. 30, 12:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.: International DeFi Day 2025 (online)

Jan. 30-31: Ethereum Zurich 2025

Jan. 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)

Jan. 30 to Feb. 1: Crypto Gathering 2025 (Miami Beach, Florida)

Jan. 30-Feb. 1: CryptoXR 2025 (Auxerre, France)

Jan. 30-Feb. 2: Oasis Onchain 2025 (Nassau, Bahamas)

Jan. 30-Feb. 4: The Satoshi Roundtable (Dubai)

Feb. 1-28: Mammathon (online), a global hackathon for Celestia (TIA).

Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)

Feb. 5-6: The 14th Global Blockchain Congress (Dubai)

Feb. 6: Ondo Summit 2025 (New York).

Feb. 7: Solana APEX (Mexico City)

Feb. 13-14: The 4th Edition of NFT Paris.

Feb. 18-20: CoinDesk’s Consensus Hong Kong

Feb. 19: Sui Connect: Hong Kong

Feb. 23-March 2: ETHDenver 2025 (Denver, Colorado)

Feb. 25: HederaCon 2025 (Denver)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

AI-themed agents and memes took a thumping Monday, with stalwarts Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUALS), ai16z (AI16Z) and eliza (ELIZA) sliding as much as 30% as China’s DeepSeek led to a reiteration of U.S. AI startup valuations.

The downturn dented massive Sunday rallies on Jupiter’s JUP and Base memecoin toshi (TOSHI).

JUP spiked 40% as founder ‘Meow’ announced at an annual conference that the platform would burn over $3 billion JUP tokens and begin using 50% of its fees to buy back the tokens from the market.

TOSHI more than doubled as Coinbase listed perpetual futures for the token, making it the only Base memecoin with both a spot and futures listing on the influential exchange.

The subsequent spike in demand sent the token to a peak market capitalization of $820 million.

Derivatives Positioning

BTC perpetual funding rates flipped negative during European hours, showing a net bias for shorts. Historically, such a positioning has tended to mark local price bottoms.

BNB, DOGE, TRX and AVAX also saw negative funding rates.

BTC, ETH short-dated options now show a bias for put options, offering downside protection. Expiries after February continue to show a bias for calls.

Key block trades for the day include a short volatility play, involving short positions in BTC $05K call and $98K put, both expiring on Jan. 10. In ETH’s case, shorts in out-of-the-money calls and a long position in the $3K put has been noted.

Market Movements:

BTC is down 5.95% from 4 p.m. ET Friday to $98,784.45 (24hrs: -5.84%)

ETH is down 6.12% at $3,050.20 (24hrs: -7.88%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 9.07% to 3,536.28 (24hrs: -9.66%)

CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2bps to 3.1%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0006% (0.7% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.26% at 107.17

Gold is down 0.21% at $2,767.13/oz

Silver is down 0.55% to $30.48/oz

Nikkei 225 closed -0.92% at 39,565.80

Hang Seng closed +0.66% to 20,197.77

FTSE is down 0.21% at 8,483.97

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.51% at 5,140.89

DJIA closed on Friday -0.32% to 44,424.25

S&P 500 closed -0.29% at 6,118.71

Nasdaq closed -0.5% at 19,954.30

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.14% at 25,468.49

S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.53% at 2,322.63

U.S. 10-year Treasury was down 13 bps at 4.5%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 2.37% at 5,988.00

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 4.27% at 20,974.75

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 44,216.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 59.45 (0.60%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.0392 (-1.7%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 766 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $60.2

Total Fees: 4.19 BTC/ $439,954

CME Futures Open Interest: 187,465 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 35.8 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 10.17%

Technical Analysis

The RSI on the hourly chart dropped to 20 during the Asian hours, the lowest since late August.

In other words, bearish momentum was the strongest in nearly five months.

RSI readings below 30 are taken to represent oversold conditions and a sign of an impending bear breather.

Crypto Equities

MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $353.67 (-5.11%), down 4.9% at $336.35 in pre-market.

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $298.00 (+0.67%), down 4.9% at $283.39 in pre-market.

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$32.52 (-4.18%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.99 (+0.2%), down 6.1% at $18.77 in pre-market.

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.54 (+4.23%), down 6.94% at $12.60 in pre-market.

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.98 (-2.2%), down 15.33% at $13.53 in pre-market.

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.53 (+1.05%), down 6.76% at $10.75 in pre-market.

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $26.22 (+2.22%), down 8.28% at $25.05 in pre-market.

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $55.46 (-9.3%), down 9.48% at $50.20 in pre-market.

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $61.25 (+39.2%), down 2.04% at $60 in pre-market.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $517.7 million

Cumulative net flows: $39.94 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.173 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: $9.18 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.8 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.67 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

As BTC and Nasdaq, gold has held relatively steady, possibly on the back of haven demand.

Haven appeal seems to have driven the yield on the 10-year Treasury note lower by nine basis points to 4.504%. Bond prices and yields move in the opposite directions.

While You Were Sleeping

Bitcoin Dives to Under $99K as DeepSeek, FOMC Steal Trump Effect (CoinDesk): Bitcoin fell below $99,000 as traders braced for this week’s FOMC meeting, and Chinese startup DeepSeek’s advanced AI model pressured U.S. tech valuations, weighing on market sentiment and crypto prices.

Solana, Dogecoin, XRP Plunge 10% as Bloody Start to Week Sees $770M Long Liquidations (CoinDesk): SOL and DOGE led declines as crypto markets saw $770 million in bullish liquidations and overall market capitalization dropped 8.5%.

Bitcoin May Be ‘Double Topping’ for a Price Slide to $75K (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s inability to sustain gains above $100,000 signals weakening momentum. If the price drops below $91,300 it could potentially reaching as low as $75,000, analysts said.

China’s Economy Stumbles in Sign Rebound Hinges on More Stimulus (Bloomberg): China’s January PMI data showed manufacturing contracting and services slowing, a signaling faltering recovery amid weak demand and trade pressures. Analysts warned of further slowdown without stronger fiscal stimulus.

Fixed Income Investors Seek Ways to Navigate a Trump Presidency (Financial Times): Sticky consumer inflation, a strong U.S. jobs market and uncertainty over Trump’s policies have fueled a sell-off in Treasuries, though some investors see current prices as attractive for long-term gains.

Emerging Market Investors Eye Frontier Assets Shielded From Trump’s Tariff Threats (Reuters): Amid Trump’s tariff threats and global tensions, some investors are turning to frontier markets like Serbia, Ghana and Sri Lanka for growth potential and insulation from U.S. trade risks.

In the Ether

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Chart of the Week: Crypto May Now Have Its Own ‘Inverse Cramer’ and Profits Are in the Millions

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Meet James Wynn, the pseudonymous trader on Hyperliquid who became famous for his $1 billion bitcoin short bet, could now be gaining a new kind of fame: as crypto’s own “Inverse Cramer.”

For those unfamiliar with the Cramer lore: he’s the high-octane, loud-money mascot of CNBC’s Mad Money, a former hedge fund manager turned stock picker with a hit-or-miss track record that turned into a meme. Many retail traders started doing the exact opposite of his recommendations, and the idea became so famous that an “Inverse Cramer ETF” was launched (it was later shut down, but the meme lives on).

Now, crypto traders might have found their new «Inverse Jim Cramer» in James Wynn’s trading wallet.

«The winning strategy lately? Do the opposite of James Wynn,» said blockchain sleuth Lookonchain in an X post, pointing to a trader who has been making millions by doing exactly the opposite of James Wynn’s trades.

Betting against James Wynn. (Lookonchain)

«0x2258 has been counter-trading James Wynn—shorting when James Wynn goes long, and going long when James Wynn shorts. In the past week, 0x2258 has made ~$17M, while James Wynn has lost ~$98M,» Lookonchain said in the post.

Seventeen million dollars in a week just by inverse-betting on one trader is not a bad payday. However, this might be a short-term trade, and one should be very cautious as things can change lightning fast in the trading world, leaving punters millions in losses if not hedged properly.

Even James Wynn said, «I’ll run it back, I always do. And I’ll enjoy doing it. I like playing the game,” after the trader got fully liquidated over the weekend.

So, maybe this Reddit gem: «How much money would you have made if you did the exact opposite of Jim Cramer?» would never translate to include James Wynn. But the sentiments, though, are loud and clear: in a market where perception is half the trade, even your PnL can get memed!

A bonus read: Jim Cramer Doesn’t Know Bitcoin«

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XRP’s Indecisive May vs. Bullish Bets – A Divergence Worth Watching

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XRP, used by Ripple to facilitate cross-border transactions, ended May with signs of indecision. Still, activity on the dominant crypto options exchange, Deribit, suggests that bulls aren’t ready to back down yet.

The payments-focused cryptocurrency formed a «doji» with a long upper shadow in May, a classic sign of indecision in the market, according to charting platform TradingView.

The long upper wick suggests that bulls pushed prices higher to $2.65, but bears stepped in and rejected those levels, driving prices down to near the level seen at the start of the month.

XRP's monthly candlesticks chart. (TradingView)

The appearance of the doji suggests the recovery rally from the early April lows near $1.60 has likely run out of steam. Doji candles appearing after uptrends often prompt technical analysts to call for bull exhaustion and a potential turn lower.

Accordingly, last week, some traders purchased the $ 2.40 strike put option expiring on May 30. A put option offers insurance against price drops.

Bullish options open interest

The overall picture remains bullish, with options open interest concentrated in higher-strike calls in a sign of persistent positive sentiment. Open interest refers to the number of active contracts at a given time. A call option gives the purchaser an asymmetric upside exposure to the underlying asset, in this case, XRP, representing a bullish bet.

«XRP open interest on Deribit is steadily increasing, with the highest concentration of strikes clustered on the upside between $2.60 and $3.0+, reflecting a notably bullish sentiment while the spot price currently trades at $2.16,» Luuk Strijers, CEO of Deribit, told CoinDesk.

XRP's options open interest. (Deribit)

The chart shows that the $4 call option is the most popular, with a notional open interest of $5.39 million. Calls at the $3 and $3.10 strikes have an open interest (OI) of over $5 million each. Notional open interest refers to the dollar value of the number of active contracts.

«XRP option open interest is split across June and September expiries, with monthly notional volumes approximating $65–$70 million, of which over 95% is traded on Deribit,» Strijers said.

The bullish mood likely stems from XRP’s positioning as a cross-border payments solution and mounting expectations of a spot XRP ETF listing in the U.S. Furthermore, the cryptocurrency is gaining traction as a corporate treasury asset.

Ripple, which uses XRP to facilitate cross-border transactions, recently highlighted its potential to address inefficiencies in SWIFT-based cross-border payments. The B2B cross-border payments market is projected to increase to $50 trillion by 2031, up 58% from $31.6 trillion in 2024.

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ETH Price Dips Below $2,500 on Whale Exit Fears, Then Bounces Back Above Key Level

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Ethereum (ETH) faced renewed downside pressure in late trading, tumbling below the $2,500 level as selling volume surged and broader risk sentiment weakened. Global trade tensions and renewed U.S. tariff risks have triggered risk-off flows, with digital assets increasingly mirroring traditional markets in their reaction to geopolitical uncertainty.

On-chain data revealed sizable inflows to centralized exchanges — most notably 385,000 ETH to Binance —a dding to speculation that institutional players may be trimming positions. Although ETH has since recovered modestly to trade around $2,506, market observers are closely watching whether buyers can defend this level or if another leg lower is imminent.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • ETH traded within a volatile $48.61 range (1.95%) between $2,551.09 and $2,499.09.
  • Price action formed a bullish ascending channel before breaking down in the final hour.
  • Heavy selling emerged near $2,550, with profit-taking accelerating into a sharp reversal.
  • ETH dropped from $2,521.35 to $2,499.09 between 01:53 and 01:54, with combined volume exceeding 48,000 ETH across two minutes.
  • Volume normalized shortly after, and price recovered slightly, consolidating around the $2,504–$2,508 band.
  • The $2,500 level is now acting as interim support, though momentum remains fragile with signs of distribution still evident in recent volume patterns.

External References

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