Uncategorized
Crypto Daybook Americas: Carnage in BTC and Altcoins May be a Warning Sign for Equities

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The CME bitcoin (BTC) futures chart is in focus once again as bitcoin’s recent 12% retracement has filled the latest CME gap—caused by the exchange’s weekend closure and bitcoin’s price run up to $95,000.
According to RiggsBTC, a post on X highlights a striking statistic: since bitcoin futures launched in December 2017, there have been 80 CME gaps, with only one unfilled at $21,000.
Zooming out to the macroeconomic picture, the U.S. economy faces slower growth due to fiscal cuts, trade uncertainties, and a weakening housing market. Inflation is expected to trend lower, with the Federal Reserve prioritizing employment over price control, according to Professor Satoshi, an analyst at Greeks Live Options Trader, told CoinDesk exclusively.
Professor Satoshi also views equities as overvalued, predicting a potential S&P 500 drop to 5700–5500. Meanwhile, the crypto market is experiencing de-risking, which often precedes downturns in equities.
«You can see altcoins got de-risked. This means majors get de-risked afterward. Typically, it’s the crypto market down first, then equities follow», according to Professor Satoshi.
Additionally, Professor Satoshi expects the Fed to likely skip a rate cut in March and the potential for a larger 50 bps cut in May. A potential return of quantitative easing in 2025, one he has been anticipating since last year’s growth scare.
«The Federal Reserve are always behind because they are data driven. On my bingo cards for 2025 is return of quantitative easing. Which no one thinks is possible but have been thinking this for sometime because ever since the growth scare last year, we managed to kick the can down the curb until now».
However, the strengthening Japanese Yen could be the canary in the coal mine, which is currently at its strongest level this year against the U.S. dollar at 148. Stay Alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
March 5, 2:29 a.m.: Ethereum testnet Sepolia receives the Pectra hard fork network upgrade at epoch 222464.
March 5, 11:00 a.m.: Circle hosts a live webinar titled “State of the USDC Economy 2025” featuring Circle Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Global Policy Dante Disparte and three other executives from Bridge, Nubank and Cumberland.
March 6: Ethereum-based L2 blockchain MegaETH deploys its public testnet, with user onboarding starting on March 10.
March 7: President Trump will host the inaugural White House Crypto Summit, bringing together top cryptocurrency founders, CEOs and investors.
Macro
March 4, 8:00 p.m.: China’s 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) Third Annual Session starts.
March 4, 8:30 p.m.: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speech at the IMF event «Asia and the IMF: Resilience through Cooperation» in Tokyo.
March 4, 8:45 p.m.: Caixin Media releases February China economic activity data.
Services PMI Est. 50.8 vs. Prev. 51
Composite PMI Prev. 51.1
March 5, 4:00 a.m.: HCOB (Hamburg Commercial Bank) releases (final) February eurozone PMI business activity data.
Composite PMI Est. 50.2 vs. Prev. 50.2
Services PMI Est. 50.7 vs. Prev. 51.3
March 5, 5:00 a.m.: Eurostat releases January eurozone wholesale inflation data.
PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
PPI YoY Prev. 0%
March 5, 8:00 a.m.: S&P Global releases February Brazil economic activity data.
Services PMI Prev. 47.6
Composite PMI Prev. 48.2
March 5, 8:15 a.m.: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) releases February U.S. non-farm private sector employment data.
ADP Employment Change Est. 140K vs. Prev. 183K
March 5, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases February Canada economic activity data.
Services PMI Prev. 49
Composite PMI Prev. 49.5
March 5, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases February U.S. economic activity data.
Services PMI Est. 49.7 vs. Prev. 52.9
Composite PMI Est. vs. 50.4 vs. Prev. 52.7
March 5, 10:00 a.m.: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases February U.S. economic activity data.
Services PMI Est. 52.9 vs. Prev. 52.8
Earnings (Ests. based on FactSet data)
March 6 (TBC): Bitfarms (BITF), $-0.04
March 17 (TBC): Bit Digital (BTBT), $-0.05
March 18 (TBC): TeraWulf (WULF), $-0.04
March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Paraswap DAO is discussing the return of 44.67 wrapped ether (wETH) to hacked cryptocurrency exchange Bybit that were collected by the DAO since the security breach.
Ampleforth DAO is discussing authorizing the Ampleforth Foundation to borrow 800,000 FORTH tokens from the treasury over 12 months to provide liquidity on major centralized exchanges.
Morpho DAO is voting on adjusting MORPHO token rewards on various networks by granting the Morpho Association the ability to alter rewards within predefined limits.
March 4, 12 p.m.: Lido to host a Node Operator Call.
March 5, 11 a.m.: Circle to host a call on The State of the USDC Economy.
Unlocks
March 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 66.19% of circulating supply worth $715.55 million.
March 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.63% of circulating supply worth $12.27 million.
March 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.08% of its circulating supply worth $19.57 million.
March 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.93% of circulating supply worth $61.07 million.
March 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $11.99 million.
Token Listings
March 4: Livepeer (LPT) to be listed on Bitbank.
March 6: Roam ($ROAM) to be listed on KuCoin and MEXC.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
March 8: Bitcoin Alive (Sydney, Australia)
March 10-11: MoneyLIVE Summit (London)
March 13-14: Web3 Amsterdam ‘25 (Netherlands)
March 19-20: Next Block Expo (Warsaw, Poland)
March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town, South Africa)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
Ether (ETH) investors narrowly avoided a catastrophic cascade of liquidations within the MakerDAO ecosystem as ETH prices came within $80 of triggering the first liquidation at a critical price point of $1,929, according to data from MakerDAO vaults.
The vaults, including Vault 26949, Vault 22025, and Vault 1985, are collateralized with ETH and hold a combined value of over $348 million. However, they face liquidation risks if ETH’s price drops to $1,929, $1,844, or $1,796, respectively.
Market watchers are closely monitoring these levels, as a breach could destabilize the DAI stablecoin and ripple through the broader DeFi ecosystem, potentially causing significant volatility.
The slide comes as ETH grapples with its worst price action in recent years—down 12% in the past 24 hours to reach levels last seen in late 2023.
Derivatives Positioning
The price swoon continues to shake out leverage traders. Bitcoin and ether futures open interest on Binance has hit the lowest level since August last year. Open interest in BTC and ETH futures listed on the CME has declined to levels seen in November.
The CME basis, however, has recovered above 5%, hinting at renewed bullish flows.
Top 25 cryptocurrencies are down on a 24-hour basis, but only HYPE, BCH, XMR, SUI, OM, BNB, UNI and TON have seen a concurrent rise in open interest. That’s a sign of traders shorting the decline in these tokens.
On Deribit, BTC and ETH options show a renewed bias for puts. A market participant paid over $2 million in premium to purchase the $85,000 BTC put expiring at the end of April.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 1.62% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $84,001.60 (24hrs: -9.49%)
ETH is down 0.48% at $2,101.37 (24hrs: -0.48%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 2.7% at 2,734.47 (24hrs: -10.9%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 7 bps at 3.07%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0035% (3.89% annualized) on Binance
DXY is down 0.43% at 106.29
Gold is up 1.18% at $2,924.2/oz
Silver is up 1.28% at $32.44/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -1.2% at 37,331.18
Hang Seng closed -0.28% at 22,941.77
FTSE is down 0.3% at 8,856.47
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 2.02% at 5,428.65
DJIA closed on Monday -1.48% at 43,191.24
S&P 500 closed -1.76% at 5,849.72
Nasdaq closed -2.64% at 18,350.19
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -1.54% at 25,001.6
S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.53% at 2,286.64
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 1 bps at 4.17%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.11% at 5,854.25
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 20,464.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.1% at 43,202.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 60.98 (-0.82%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02511 (0.72%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 810 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $52.2
Total Fees: 6.06 BTC / $550,672
CME Futures Open Interest: 139,245 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 29.1 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 8.27%
Technical Analysis
XRP/BTC’s weekly chart. (TradingView)
The XRP-bitcoin (XRP/BTC) pair is pushing against the upper end of a four-year-long sideways channel.
Breakouts from such prolonged consolidation patterns often yield sharp rallies.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $250.92 (-1.77%), down 1.63% at $246.82 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $205.75 (-4.58%), down 1.01% at $203.68
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$20.76 (-3.58%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.79 (-0.93%), down 2.61% at $13.43
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.86 (-4.53%), down 1.58% at $8.72
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.14 (-9.14%), down 0.89% at $10.05
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.79 (-2.5%), down 1.8% at $7.65
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $16.50 (-7.41%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.89 (-9.39%), down 3.5% at $37.53
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed -2.91% at $40.97
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$74.2 million
Cumulative net flows: $36.87 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,131 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$12.1 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.81 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.636 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The Solana-based DEXes registered $105.9 billion in trading volume in February, comfortably outdoing Ethereum’s tally of $82 billion.
Solana ‘s winning trend began in October, largely due to the frenzied trading in memecoins.
While You Were Sleeping
Tom Lee Predicts Market Bottom This Week, Still Sees Bitcoin Closing the Year at $150K (CoinDesk): Fundstrat’s Head of Research recently said Bitcoin could drop to $62,000 in the short term but still expects it to reach $150,000 by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin Price Support Near $82K Under Threat as Nasdaq Triggers ‘Double Top’ (CoinDesk): Despite the past weekend’s crypto rally, Bitcoin’s long-term rebound may depend on Nasdaq’s trajectory, according to research firm Ecoinometrics.
THORChain Sees Record $4.6B Volume After Bybit’s $1.4B Hack (CoinDesk): DefiLlama data shows THORChain processed record swaps in the week ending March 2, while blockchain analysis suggests hackers may have used the platform to move a significant amount of funds stolen from Bybit.
China Retaliates Against U.S. With Tariffs, Controls on U.S. Companies (The Wall Street Journal): On Tuesday, China retaliated against Trump’s additional 10% tariffs on Chinese imports by imposing up to 15% tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods, set to take effect March 10.
Canada Retaliates, Puts Tariffs on $107 Billion of US Products (Bloomberg): Canada’s 25% tariffs on $20.6 billion in U.S. goods are now in effect, with a second round in three weeks targeting an additional $86.4 billion in exports, including cars, trucks, steel and aluminum.
Global Government Borrowing Set To Hit Record $12.3Tn (Financial Times): Global sovereign debt will rise 3% this year as defense spending, high interest rates and deficits drive borrowing, while investors like Pimco cut exposure to long-term government bonds over sustainability concerns.
In the Ether
Uncategorized
Asia Morning Briefing: Are Distributed Compute Tokens Undervalued vs. CoreWeave (CRWV)?

Tech investors love to pay for potential. GameFi tokens, with sky-high valuations divorced from current user numbers or revenues, embody this optimism perfectly — as CoinDesk investigated in 2022, Decentraland’s then billion-dollar market cap didn’t quite match the number of active players on the platform.
But, surprisingly, distributed compute tokens don’t seem to enjoy the same speculative premium even when compared to their Traditional Finance traded peers like CoreWeave (CRWV).
CoinMarketCap says the category of tokens for decentralized networks that provide GPU power for AI and other compute workloads, which includes well-known tokens like BitTensor, Aethir, and Render, is worth $12 billion.
At the same time, market data from research group MarketsandMarkets puts the value of the GPU as a service industry at around $8 billion this year, growing to $26 billion in 2030.
In contrast, CRWV closed Monday in New York at $163, putting its market cap at $79.2 billion. The company’s recent earnings forecast up to $5.1 billion in 2025 revenue, suggesting it trades at more than 15 times forward sales.
That kind of multiple might be justified in a high-growth environment, but CoreWeave also posted a $314.6 million net loss in the first quarter, driven in part by stock-based compensation and continued infrastructure buildout.
Despite this, investors continue to reward CoreWeave for its dominant position in centralized AI infrastructure with its stock up 300% year-to-date. The company is tightly integrated with Nvidia and has high visibility through contracts with OpenAI and other enterprise clients.
Meanwhile, decentralized compute networks are delivering similar services— AI inference, rendering, and compute power — without needing to raise billions in debt or equity as they act as a broker connecting existing GPUs to users, saving the capital expenditure of buying their own server farms.
These are not theoretical networks. They are functional systems already processing real workloads, and the brokerage model works for customers.
Yet their collective market value remains a fraction of CoreWeave’s. Certainly, they don’t have the same level of workload running through their networks, but the gap is striking. While the market treats GameFi with irrational exuberance, distributed compute tokens may be suffering from the opposite problem.
Despite addressing the same market need as CoreWeave, and in some ways offering a more capital-efficient and globally scalable model without the eye-watering CapEx, they remain modestly valued.
Justin Sun-Backed SRM Entertainment Announces $100 Million TRX Staking Move
SRM Entertainment (Nasdaq: SRM), soon to rebrand as TRON Inc., has staked its entire treasury of 365 million TRX tokens through JustLend, a move that could yield an annual return of up to 10%, according to a release.
The move comes on the heels of a $100 million investment round closed earlier this month to fund what the company calls a “TRON treasury strategy,” essentially, a public market vehicle modeled on bitcoin-holding firms like MicroStrategy, but for TRX.
That structure provides equity investors with indirect exposure to a network that plays a dominant role in USDT stablecoin settlement, particularly in the Global South, where TRON-based Tether serves as a dollar lifeline – arguably a ‘Visa IPO‘ moment for the region’s economy.
Sogni AI Debuts Mainnet, SOGNI Token to List on Kraken, MEXC, Gate.io
Sogni AI, a decentralized platform for generative AI workflows, has launched its mainnet and will list its native token, SOGNI, on Kraken, MEXC, and Gate.io.
SOGNI is the utility token of the Sogni Supernet. It is used for compute payments, staking, governance, and access to advanced application features.
The mainnet launch includes deployments on Base, an Ethereum Layer-2 developed by Coinbase, and Etherlink, a Tezos-based EVM-compatible Layer-2 using Smart Rollups. In a release, the platform said this chain-agnostic approach is designed to balance scalability and accessibility.
The project’s stated goal is to create an open and economically sustainable environment for creative AI applications, combining Web3 infrastructure with user tools that resemble Web2 services in usability.
The platform also uses a non-transferable credit system called Spark Points, which are fixed-value rendering credits that can be purchased or earned within the Sogni ecosystem.
Users interact with the network through three core applications: Sogni Web, Sogni Pocket, and Sogni Studio. Creators submit generative AI jobs, while node operators, or “Workers,” provide GPU resources and are compensated in SOGNI tokens.
Market Movements:
- BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $107,200, holding a strong support zone after a 14,695 BTC volume spike near $107K, with traders eyeing a potential breakout toward $115,000.
- ETH: Ethereum rebounded sharply from a 3.4% intraday drop, currently trading at $2,480, forming a V-shaped recovery off $2,438 support, as institutional inflows continue despite broader market uncertainty.
- Gold: Gold is trading at $3,310.95, rebounding from a one-month low as a weaker dollar and Fed pressure offset risk-on sentiment.
- Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday as investors weighed Wall Street’s record highs against looming uncertainty from Trump’s expiring 90-day tariff reprieve, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.58%
- S&P 500: Stocks climbed Monday as the S&P 500 rose 0.52% to a record close of 6,204.95, capping a strong month.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
Uncategorized
Senator Seeks to Waive U.S. Taxes on Small-Scale Crypto Activity in Big Budget Bill

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis is seeking to slip a significant crypto tax measure into the massive budget bill that backs much of President Donald Trump’s agenda, trying to reduce tax consequences stemming from fundamental cryptocurrency activities.
Lummis sought on Monday to insert language into Congress’ «Big Beautiful Bill» that would, among other things, waive taxes on small crypto transactions below $300 and would — in the industry’s view — rationalize a tax approach that currently has people hit for taxes on both the front end and back end of activity at the heart of the sector’s inner workings: staking and digital assets mining.
The idea of making small transactions tax-free (capped at $5,000 in overall transactions each year) would eliminate much of the burden of working out capital gains for people who only engage in a small amount of digital assets activity. That could clear a lot of headaches for those who’ve been hesitant to try crypto, the industry contends.
The amendment pushed by Lummis, which hasn’t yet come up for a vote, also addresses tax issues with crypto lending, wash sales and charitable contributions.
As the Digital Chamber put it on Monday, the move on mining, staking and other ways of gaining crypto assets would repair «a long overdue mistake on how these rewards are treated for tax purposes.»»Today, staking and block rewards are taxed upon both acquisition and point of sale,» the U.S. crypto lobbying group argued, pushing its constituents to petition Congress for support. «Senator Lummis’ provision solves this by taxing rewards only when sold, aligning policy with actual income.»
So-called validators in a blockchain are given rewards for staking their assets, providing them a return for otherwise locking up their cryptocurrency. It’s taxed when they receive the rewards and on the gains when they sell those assets. Industry critics of this approach are pushing for the change to a system that would instead tax the assets only upon their eventual sale.
Crypto mining works in much the same way, with assets created in the digital mining process and then later sold. Assets gained from aidrops and forks would also get the same treatment under Lummis’ amendment, getting taxed only when they’re ultimately sold.
The amendment might also address the wash-trading loophole lawmakers have sought for years to close. Under current rules, crypto investors can conduct a «tax-loss harvesting» strategy through strategically selling investments at a loss and immediately re-purchasing them.
The hard-fought Senate process has been going through an unlimited amendment process known as a «vote-a-rama» which began Monday morning, and Lummis sought to toss this amendment into the mix. The stakes are high for congressional Republicans on the wide-reaching bill, but party leaders have struggled to keep all of their members in the yes column as Democrats unite against it, taking issue with potential cuts to Medicaid, green energy initiatives and other aspects of the nearly 1,000-page legislation.
The U.S. House of Representatives barely passed its own version of the spending bill last month, and it would have to do so again if the Senate approves it with changes. Analysis of the measure concluded its provisions could add more than $3 trillion to the U.S. budget deficit.
UPDATE (July 1, 2025, 00:35 UTC): Adds tweet.
Uncategorized
ETH Price Surges as $2.9B Inflows, EthCC, and Robinhood’s L2 Fuel Bullish Sentiment

Ether (ETH) 3.5% in the past 24 hours to $2,519 as of 18:59 UTC on June 30, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model, supported by continued institutional demand, network upgrades, and major retail platform integrations.
Institutional interest remains robust, with CoinShares reporting $429 million in net inflows into ether investment products over the past week and nearly $2.9 billion year-to-date. This trend has coincided with a declining ETH supply on exchanges and rising staking levels, with over 35 million ETH —a round 28% of the total supply — now locked in proof-of-stake contracts. Market analysts suggest that these factors are reducing liquid supply and bolstering ether’s long-term investment thesis.
Robinhood announced on Monday that it is developing its own Layer-2 blockchain using Arbitrum’s rollup infrastructure. The network is not yet live, but the initiative will eventually support Ethereum staking, tokenized stock trading, and perpetual crypto futures. Although the L2 is under development, the decision to build it on Ethereum’s rollup ecosystem is seen as a long-term vote of confidence in Ethereum’s scalability roadmap.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has also introduced a new digital identity framework using zero-knowledge proofs. This system allows users to verify traits or credentials without revealing private data and is designed to help Web3 apps incorporate privacy-preserving identity systems. Analysts view this as a key step toward wider adoption of decentralized applications requiring sensitive user authentication.
Meanwhile, the Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) kicked off in Cannes, France, gathering more than 6,400 attendees and 500 speakers. The event showcases Ethereum’s ongoing developer momentum through presentations on new tools, scaling strategies, and protocol improvements.
Despite the positive momentum, ETH remains just below its 200-day moving average, suggesting technical barriers still exist. However, the confluence of inflows, developer progress, and scaling plans continues to support a constructive outlook.
Technical Analysis Highlights
- Ether traded between $2,438.50 and $2,523 from June 29 19:00 to June 30 18:00, marking a 3.47% range.
- The largest spike occurred during the 22:00–23:00 UTC window on June 29, when ETH surged 2.9% on volume of 368,292 ETH, briefly pushing through the $2,500 barrier.
- On June 30 at 15:00 UTC, ETH found strong support around $2,438 on above-average volume, confirming a bullish floor.
- A local high of $2,523 was reached earlier in the day, establishing resistance just above the psychological $2,500 level.
- During the final hour from 18:00 to 18:59 UTC on June 30, ETH retraced from an intraday peak of $2,499.19 to close at $2,487.19.
- A sharp upward move between 18:20–18:21 saw ETH climb 1.6% on 6,318 ETH volume, stalling near $2,499.
- As of 20:23 UTC on June 30, ETH traded at $2,519, up 3.49% in 24 hours, signaling renewed bullish momentum into the Asia open.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
-
Business9 месяцев ago
3 Ways to make your business presentation more relatable
-
Entertainment9 месяцев ago
10 Artists who retired from music and made a comeback
-
Fashion9 месяцев ago
According to Dior Couture, this taboo fashion accessory is back
-
Entertainment9 месяцев ago
\’Better Call Saul\’ has been renewed for a fourth season
-
Business9 месяцев ago
15 Habits that could be hurting your business relationships
-
Entertainment9 месяцев ago
Disney\’s live-action Aladdin finally finds its stars
-
Entertainment9 месяцев ago
New Season 8 Walking Dead trailer flashes forward in time
-
Tech9 месяцев ago
5 Crowdfunded products that actually delivered on the hype