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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bull Momentum Stalls Ahead of Fed Rate Cut

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin and ether’s bull momentum has hit a roadblock. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected Thursday, prompting investors to tighten their stances and keep a bid for the dollar, as we anticipated. There’s also the Truflation index stirring up concern. Seen by some as more reliable than government numbers, it rose above 3% for the first time in over two years.

But guess what? Fed fund futures remain confident the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points next week, and traders on decentralized exchanges, who have a knack for catching big trends, remain as bullish as ever.

The sentiment is reflected in the impressive $64.8 million open interest for active BTC call options on Derive, the leading on-chain options protocol. That’s a staggering six times larger than the open interest in put options. Ether traders are also leaning heavily toward calls, figures from Amberdata show.

On top of that, funding rates for BTC, ETH, and SOL on HyperLiquid, a prominent on-chain perpetuals trading protocol, are also positive, albeit with reservations. They’re hovering well under an annualized 50%, showing that while the sentiment is bullish, the leverage level is measured and not overly aggressive.

In the broader market, AVAX, the native token of the Avalanche network of blockchains, struggled to chew through selling pressure near $55, teasing a «double top» pattern on the charts. The lackluster price action comes on the heels of Thursday’s $250 million fundraise led by Galaxy Digital, Dragonfly and ParaFi Capital. Keep an eye out for a pick-up in volatility as the highly anticipated Avalanche9000 upgrade, aimed at making the platform more affordable and flexible for creating layer-1 chains, is set to go live on Dec. 16.

LQTY, the native token of censorship-resistant decentralized stablecoin lender Liquity, took a breather near $2.45, having more than doubled in value in the past four weeks because of the V2 launch and overall bullish market sentiment.

The Polygon ecosystem token, POL, wasn’t stirred by a proposal suggesting deploying DAI, USDC and USDT reserves locked in the PoS bridge — the equivalent of cash under a mattress — into yield-generating strategies.

Lastly, a survey by Vietnam’s leading digital assets exchange, Coin68, showed over half of respondents reporting profits from their investments last year and 93.5% anticipating an altcoin season in 2025. Emerging countries, in general, could see more pivot toward alternative investment vehicles as President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs cause fiat volatility, although that could also motivate local governments to implement capital controls. So stay alert out there.

What to Watch

Crypto:

Dec. 13: Nasdaq announces its annual changes to the Nasdaq-100 index. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, is widely expected to be added.

Dec. 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) Q4 FY 2024 earnings. EPS Est. $-0.18 vs Prev. $-1.02.

Macro

Dec. 16, 9:45 a.m.: December’s S&P Global Flash US PMI data is released. Composite PMI Prev. 54.9.

Dec. 18, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its fed funds target rate, currently 4.50%-4.75%. The CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that interest-rate traders assign a 96% probability of a 25 basis-point cut. Press conference starts at 2:30 p.m. Livestream link.

Dec. 18, 10:00 p.m.: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision.

Dec. 19, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases third-quarter GDP (final).

GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.8% vs Prev. 3.0%

GDP Price Index QoQ Est. 1.9% vs Prev. 2.5%

Dec. 24, 1:00 p.m. The Fed releases November’s H.6 (Money Stock Measures) report.

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Arbitrum DAO has an active vote to allocate 22 million ARB ($22.8 million) to cover operating costs for OpCo, an entity it can use to create a more structured approach to governance. The vote closes Dec. 19.

The Polygon community is evaluating a governance proposal that would see the deployment of $1 billion of its stablecoin reserve to generate a yield.

Unlocks

Axie Infinity (AXS) will unlock $6.4 million worth of tokens on Dec. 13, representing 0.52% of circulating supply.

Starknet (STRK) will unlock $41.5 million worth of tokens on Dec. 14, representing 2.83% of circulating supply.

Sei (SEI) will unlock $49 million worth of tokens on Dec. 15, representing 2.07% of circulating supply.

Token Launches

Binance announced that data sovereignty platform Vana (VANA) will release a token on the launchpool. Trading will start Dec. 16.

Conferences:

Day 5 of 5: Luxembourg Blockchain Week 2024

Day 2 of 2: Global Blockchain Show (Dubai, UAE)

Day 2 of 3: Taipei Blockchain Week 2024 (Taipei, Taiwan)

Day 1 of 1: Limitless Crypto 2024 (San Juan, Puerto Rico)

Jan. 13 — 24: Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025 (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)

Dec. 16 — 17: Blockchain Association’s Policy Summit (Washington D.C.)

Jan. 17: Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025 (Los Angeles)

Jan. 18: BitcoinDay (Napes, Florida)

Jan. 20 — 24: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland)

Jan. 21: Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025

Jan 30 — 31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

This digital fart is worth nearly $700 million.

The scatologically named AI agent token fartcoin (FART) has zoomed to over $670 million in market cap, lifted by gains in the general AI agent sector we discussed on Thursday.

The coin allows users to engage with the token by submitting fart-related memes or jokes to claim tokens. It boasts a «Gas Fee» system — a parody of gas fees on serious projects such as Ethereum — with certain transactions producing a name-appropriate digital sound, adding a unique layer of what some might call fun.

Some community members see the token as more than just a meme; they view it as a cultural phenomenon within the crypto space — one that gets funnier as prices rise.

Fartcoin was conceived within the digital conversation space known as «Infinite Backrooms,” the chatroom that directly led to the creation of the first AI agent, Gospel of Goatse (GOAT).

The idea was initially discussed by an AI agent known as «Terminal of Truths» (@truth_terminal on X) in conversation with another AI bot. It was explored, among other token launch concepts, as part of a broader discussion on how to raise funds for various projects, including making a film and supporting environmental initiatives.

Derivatives Positioning

BTC and ETH calls continue to be pricier than puts.

Still, flows have been mixed in BTC, with uptake for $70K puts expiring in February and March.

Speculative excesses remain at bay, keeping perpetual funding rates positive but low.

Market Movements:

BTC is up 0.69 % from 4 p.m. ET Thursday to $100,468.14 (24hrs: -0.14%)

ETH is up 0.83% at $3,899.63 (24hrs: -0.15%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 0.36% to 3,830.21 (24hrs: -1.1%)

Ether staking yield is up 7 bps to 3.24%

BTC funding rate is at 0.01% (10.95% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at 106.99

Gold is unchanged at $2,689.5/oz

Silver is up 0.38% to $31.35/oz

Nikkei 225 closed -0.95% at 39,470.44

Hang Seng closed -2.09% at 19,971.24

FTSE is up 0.11% at 8,321.32

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.44% at 4,987.3

DJIA closed on Thursday -0.53% to 43,914.12

S&P 500 closed -0.54% at 6,051.25

Nasdaq closed -0.66% at 19,902.84

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.96% at 25,410.7

S&P 40 Latin America closed -2.02% at 2,349.72

U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 7 bps at 4.34%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.34% to 6,081.25

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.68% to 21,798.0

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.24% at 44,083.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 56.47% (24hrs: +0.11%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03888 (24hrs: +0.18%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 763 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $64.3

Total Fees: 19.68 BTC/ $1.9 million

CME Futures Open Interest: 196,355 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 10.64%

BTC vs gold market cap: 37.4 oz

Bitcoin sitting in over-the-counter desk balances: 422.9k

Basket Performance

Technical Analysis

The chart shows the upside in Avalanche’s AVAX being capped at around $55, the resistance level seen earlier this month.

A renewed decline from here would translate into a double-top bearish reversal pattern. Keep an eye on this.

Crypto Equities

MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $392.19 (-4.67%), up 1.87% at $399.52 in pre-market.

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $312.96 (-0.27%), up 0.9% at $315.83 in pre-market.

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.45 (+0.59%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $22.58 (-2.97%), up 1.42% at $22.90 in pre-market.

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.33 (+4.76%), up 1.46% at $12.51 in pre-market.

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.54 (-2.02%), down 0.26% at $15.50 in pre-market.

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.33 (-3.9%), down 2.6% at $12.01 in pre-market.

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $27.86 (-0.11%).

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $71.84 (+11.33%), down 1.17% at $71.00 in pre-market.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net inflow: $597.5 million

Cumulative net inflows: $35.14 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.121 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net inflow: $273.7 million

Cumulative net inflows: $2.24 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.440 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Solana leads all blockchains with the highest number of new developers actively exploring its ecosystem.

While You Were Sleeping

Trump Advisers Seek to Shrink or Eliminate Bank Regulators (The Wall Street Journal): Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are said to be exploring eliminating or consolidating major U.S. bank regulators such as the FDIC and CFPB, raising concerns about deposit insurance stability and financial industry oversight.

LINK Surges to 2021 Levels as Trump’s World Liberty Buys More Chainlink Tokens (CoinDesk): Donald Trump-backed DeFi project World Liberty Financial bought $1 million in Chainlink’s LINK token for a second straight day, making the token its fourth-largest holding and helping drive the price up 22% in the past seven days.

Solana Was the Biggest Draw for New Crypto Developers in 2024: Electric Capital (CoinDesk): Cryptocurrency developer numbers held steady in 2024, according to Electric Capital, with Solana outpacing Ethereum in new talent while Ethereum retained dominance across all continents with the largest number of developers.

Ether Volume Overshadows Bitcoin on HyperLiquid as Platform Activity Hits $500B (CoinDesk): HyperLiquid’s ether perpetuals outpaced bitcoin this week, driving the platform’s total trading volume past $500 billion. Its HYPE token has surged over 300% in the past two weeks.

UK Economy Unexpectedly Contracts in New Blow for Rachel Reeves (Reuters): The UK economy shrank 0.1% in October, missing forecasts, as services stagnated and manufacturing declined, highlighting ongoing challenges amid slow post-pandemic growth.

Europe Has Choice of Doing Hard Work or Facing Next to No Growth (Bloomberg): Europe risks prolonged economic stagnation, The Conference Board warns, urging reforms to boost private investment, accelerate green transitions, and address labor shortages amid aging populations and geopolitical challenges.

In the Ether

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HBAR Retreats Amid Constrained Range Trading and Diminishing Volumes

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HBAR spent much of the past 23 hours locked in a narrow range, oscillating between $0.23 and $0.24 in what amounted to just 2% volatility. The token briefly touched session highs at $0.24 on Sept. 16 around 18:00 UTC before sliding lower, ultimately finding repeated support near $0.23. Multiple rebound attempts from that level throughout Sept. 17’s morning trading hinted at a potential price floor, though conviction remained limited.

Market activity tapered alongside the price drift. Trading volumes fell steadily after an early spike, underscoring weakening participation and suggesting that bullish momentum has largely faded. The constrained range and muted volatility reinforced the impression of indecision, with buyers and sellers unwilling to press for a breakout.

The final hour of the observed period offered a sharper display of market sentiment. At 13:33 UTC on Sept. 17, HBAR sold off abruptly from $0.24 to $0.23, accompanied by an outsized 2.56 million in volume just three minutes later. Yet the coin staged a measured recovery, climbing back to end near session highs, encapsulating the day’s push and pull between sellers and opportunistic dip buyers.

Overall, HBAR slipped 1% across the 23-hour window. While the establishment of support around $0.23 provides some stability, declining volumes and sustained downward pressure leave the market vulnerable. The swift sell-off and subsequent rebound illustrate the uncertainty still shaping HBAR’s outlook, with bearish sentiment prevailing but tempered by signs of technical resilience.

HBAR/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators Assessment

  • Price action demonstrated consolidation within a 2% range between $0.23-$0.24 resistance and support thresholds.
  • Volume contracted from 45.7 million to 4.7 million tokens indicating deteriorating market participation.
  • Multiple rebounds at $0.23 support level suggest potential price floor establishment.
  • Acute sell-off at 13:33 followed by recovery indicates volatile intraday sentiment fluctuations.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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The Protocol: ETH Exit Queue Gridlocks As Validators Pile Up

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Welcome to The Protocol, CoinDesk’s weekly wrap of the most important stories in cryptocurrency tech development. I’m Margaux Nijkerk, a reporter at CoinDesk.

In this issue:

  • Ethereum Faces Validator Bottleneck With 2.5M ETH Awaiting Exit
  • Is Ethereum’s DeFi Future on L2s? Liquidity, Innovation Say Perhaps Yes
  • Ethereum Foundation Starts New AI Team to Support Agentic Payments
  • American Express Introduces Blockchain-Based ‘Travel Stamps’
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Network News

ETHEREUM VALIDATOR EXIT QUEUE FACES BOTTLENECK: Ethereum’s proof-of-stake system is facing its largest test yet. As of mid-September, roughly 2.5 million ETH — valued at roughly $11.25 billion — is waiting to leave the validator set, according to validator queue dashboards. The backlog pushed exit wait times to more than 46 days on Sept. 14, the longest in Ethereum’s short staking history, dashboards show. The last peak, in August, put the exit queue at 18 days. The initial spark came on Sept. 9, when Kiln, a large infrastructure provider, chose to exit all of its validators as a safety precaution. The move, triggered by recent security incidents including the NPM supply-chain attack and the SwissBorg breach, pushed around 1.6 million ETH into the queue at once. Though unrelated to Ethereum’s staking protocol itself, the hacks rattled confidence enough for Kiln to hit pause, highlighting how events in the broader crypto ecosystem can cascade into Ethereum’s validator dynamics. In a blog post from staking provider Figment, Senior Analyst Benjamin Thalman noted that the current exit queue build up isn’t only about security. After ETH has rallied more than 160% since April, some stakers are simply taking profits. Others, especially institutional players, are shifting their portfolios’ exposure. At the same time, the number of validators entering the Ethereum staking ecosystem has been steadily rising. Ethereum’s churn limit, which is a protocol safeguard that caps how many validators can enter or exit over a certain time period, is currently capped at 256 ETH per epoch (about 6.4 minutes), restricting how quickly validators can join or leave the network. The churn limit is meant to keep the network stable. With more than 2.5M ETH lined up, stakers on Sept. 16 face 44 days before even reaching the cooldown step. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.

IS L2 DEFI EATING AT ETHEREUM’S L1 DEFI?: Ethereum is in the midst of a paradox. Even as ether hit record highs in late August, decentralized finance (DeFi) activity on Ethereum’s layer-1 (L1) looks muted compared to its peak in late 2021. Fees collected on mainnet in August were just $44 million, a 44% drop from the prior month. Meanwhile, layer-2 (L2) networks like Arbitrum and Base are booming, with $20 billion and $15 billion in total value locked (TVL) respectively. This divergence raises a crucial question: are L2s cannibalizing Ethereum’s DeFi activity, or is the ecosystem evolving into a multi-layered financial architecture? AJ Warner, the chief strategy officer of Offchain Labs, the developer firm behind layer-2 Arbitrum, argues that the metrics are more nuanced than just layer-2 DeFi chipping at the layer 1.In an interview with CoinDesk, Warner said that focusing solely on TVL misses the point, and that Ethereum is increasingly functioning as crypto’s “global settlement layer,” a foundation for high-value issuance and institutional activity. Products like Franklin Templeton’s tokenized funds or BlackRock’s BUIDL product launch directly on Ethereum L1 — activity that isn’t fully captured in DeFi metrics but underscores Ethereum’s role as the bedrock of crypto finance. Ethereum as a layer-1 blockchain is the secure but relatively slow and expensive base network. Layer-2s are scaling networks built on top of it, designed to handle transactions faster and at a fraction of the cost before ultimately settling back to Ethereum for security. That’s why they’ve become so appealing to traders and builders alike. Metrics like TVL, the amount of crypto deposited in DeFi protocols, highlight this shift as activity is moved to L2s where lower fees and quicker confirmations make everyday DeFi far more practical. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.

EF STARTS DECENTRALIZED AI TEAM: The Ethereum Foundation (EF) is creating a dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) group to make Ethereum the settlement and coordination layer for what it calls the “machine economy,” according to research scientist Davide Crapis. Crapis, who announced the initiative on X, said the new dAI Team will pursue two priorities: enabling AI agents to pay and coordinate without intermediaries, and building a decentralized AI stack that avoids reliance on a small number of large companies. He said Ethereum’s neutrality, verifiability and censorship resistance make it a natural base layer for intelligent systems. The EF is a non-profit organization based in Zug, Switzerland, that funds and coordinates the development of the Ethereum blockchain. It does not control the network but plays a catalytic role by supporting researchers, developers and ecosystem projects. Its remit includes funding upgrades such as Ethereum 2.0, zero-knowledge proofs and layer-2 scaling, alongside community programs like the Ecosystem Support Program. The foundation also organizes events such as Devcon to foster collaboration and acts as a policy advocate for blockchain adoption. In 2025, EF restructured to handle Ethereum’s growth, emphasizing ecosystem acceleration, founder support and enterprise outreach. The new dAI Team represents a continuation of this shift toward specialized units addressing emerging technologies. — Siamak Masnavi Read more.

AMERICAN EXPRESS DABBLES IN BLOCKCHAIN TRAVEL STAMPS: American Express has introduced Ethereum-based «travel stamps» to create a commemorative record of travel experiences. The travel experience tokens, which are technically NFTs (ERC 721 tokens), are minted and stored on Coinbase’s Base network, said Colin Marlowe, vice president of Emerging Partnerships at Amex Digital Labs. The travel stamps, which can be collected anytime a traveler uses their card, are not tradable NTF tokens, Marlowe said, and neither do they function like blockchain-based loyalty points — at least for the time being. “It’s a valueless ERC-721, so technically an NFT, but we just didn’t brand it as such. We wanted to speak to it in a way that was natural for the travel experience itself, and so we talk about these things as stamps, and they’re represented as tokens,” Marlowe said in an interview. “As an identifier and representation of history the stamps could create interesting partnership angles over time. We weren’t trying to sell these or sort of generate any like short term revenue. The angle is to make a travel experience with Amex feel really rich, really different, and kind of set it apart,” he said. Fireblocks is also involved, supporting Amex as its Wallet-as-a-Service provider for the passport product, a Fireblocks representative said. The Amex travel app also includes a range of tools for travels and Centurion Lounge upgrades, the company said. – Ian Allison Read more.

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In Other News

  • Blockchain-based real world asset (RWA) specialists Centrifuge and Plume have launched the Anemoy Tokenized Apollo Diversified Credit Fund (ACRDX), backed by a $50 million anchor investment from Grove, a credit infrastructure protocol within the Sky Ecosystem. The fund gives blockchain investors exposure to Apollo’s diversified global credit strategy, spanning direct corporate lending, asset-backed lending and dislocated credit, a type of mispriced debt due to market stress and lack of liquidity. ACRDX will be distributed through Plume’s Nest Credit vaults under the ticker nACRDX, making the strategy accessible to institutional investors on-chain. By packaging Apollo’s portfolio in tokenized form, the fund aims to lower entry barriers and increase transparency for investors seeking exposure to private credit markets, according to a press release. — Ian Allison Read more.
  • Google is taking a step toward merging artificial intelligence (AI) and digital money, rolling out a new open-source protocol that lets AI applications send and receive payments, which includes support for stablecoins, digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar, according to a press release. To incorporate stablecoin rails, Google teamed up with the U.S.-based crypto exchange Coinbase, which has been developing its own AI-integrated payments infrastructure. The company also worked with the Ethereum Foundation and coordinated with more than 60 other organizations, including Salesforce, American Express and Etsy, to cover traditional finance use cases. The move builds on Google’s earlier work to establish a standard for “AI agents.” These digital agents may eventually handle complex tasks, such as negotiating mortgages or shopping for clothes, without direct human input. — Oliver Knight Read more.
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Regulatory and Policy

  • Contrary to claims from the U.S. banking industry, stablecoins do not pose a risk to the financial system, according to the chief policy officer at crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), Faryar Shirzad. Banks’ claims that they do are are myths crafted to defend their revenues, he wrote in a blog post. «The central claim — that stablecoins will cause a mass outflow of bank deposits — simply doesn’t hold up,» Shirzad wrote. «Recent analysis shows no meaningful link between stablecoin adoption and deposit flight for community banks and there’s no reason to believe big banks would fare any worse.» Larger lenders still hold trillions of dollars at the Federal Reserve and if deposits were really at risk, he argued, they would be competing harder for customer funds by offering higher interest rates rather than parking cash at the central bank. According to Shirzad, the real reason for banks’ opposition is the payments business. Stablecoins, digital tokens whose value is pegged to a real-life asset such as the dollar, offer faster and cheaper ways to move money, threatening an estimated $187 billion in annual swipe-fee revenue for traditional card networks and banks. He compared the current pushback to earlier battles against ATMs and online banking, when incumbents warned of systemic dangers but, he said, were ultimately trying to protect entrenched profits. — Jesse Hamilton Read more.
  • U.S. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said crypto’s time has come, pledging to modernize the U.S. securities rulebook and expand “Project Crypto” to bring markets on-chain. Speaking in Paris on Sept. 10 at the OECD’s inaugural Roundtable on Global Financial Markets, Atkins said the SEC is shifting away from enforcement-driven policymaking and will provide clear rules for tokens, custody, and trading platforms. “Policy will no longer be set by ad hoc enforcement actions,” he said, calling the new approach “a golden age of financial innovation on U.S. soil.” Atkins said most tokens are not securities and promised bright-line rules for determining when crypto assets fall under SEC oversight. He said entrepreneurs must be able to raise capital on-chain without “endless legal uncertainty” and pledged a framework for platforms that integrate trading, lending, and staking under one license. Custody rules will also be updated to allow investors and intermediaries multiple options. — Siamak Masnavi Read more.
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Bullish Shares Rise 5% Ahead of Earnings After Crypto Exchange Secures New York BitLicense

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Shares of Bullish (BLSH) rose 5% to $53.12 on Tuesday after the crypto platform secured a BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services, a crucial regulatory approval that opens the door to offering spot trading and custody services to institutional clients in New York.

With the license, Bullish’s U.S. arm — Bullish US Operations LLC — can now legally serve advanced traders in the financial capital of the U.S., an important step in the company’s push to expand domestically. Until now, Bullish was only regulated in Germany, Hong Kong and Gibraltar. Bullish’s global parent is also CoinDesk’s parent company.

The license comes just a day after Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest significantly increased its exposure to the company. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) acquired 120,609 shares while ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) picked up 40,574 shares, together worth about $8.21 million.

Bullish, which runs a trading platform aimed at institutional investors, will report second-quarter earnings after markets close on Wednesday.

Earlier this week, investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) initiated coverage on the company with a «market perform» rating and a $55 price target. The firm called Bullish “a rare public play” on a crypto exchange built for institutions and noted that its entry into the U.S. could drive growth. KBW sees domestic expansion as a key catalyst.

Bullish debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in August through a direct listing. Its stock surged to $104 on opening day before closing at $68. Since then, shares have fallen 22%, with today’s BitLicense announcement providing a boost.

If Bullish succeeds in expanding its footprint in the U.S., it could emerge as a legitimate competitor to Coinbase, according to brokerage firm Bernstein. The firm said success will depend on the platform’s ability to execute on its U.S. launch plans, currently targeted for 2026, Bernstein said.

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