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Crypto Daybook Americas: BTC Volatility Drops on ‘Wait and See’ Stance as FOMC Minutes Due

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Cryptocurrency investors seem to be adopting a “wait-and-see” approach to the plethora of conflicting headlines appearing. As a result, the BTC Volatility Index (DVOL) on popular options exchange Deribit has been dropping since Jan. 20, falling from a high of 72 to around 50.8.
The drop signals bitcoin’s maturation as an asset, according to Tracy Jin, COO of cryptocurrency trading platform MEXC. «Rather than reacting sharply to short-term market shocks, BTC is showing signs of stabilization, increasingly resembling the dynamics of commodity markets and traditional safe-haven assets,” Jin said.
While FTX creditor payouts have started rolling out, the Libra token debacle just keeps intensifying. The co-creator of the token, Hayden Davis, bragged about buying access to Argentine President Javier Milei’s inner circle ahead of the memecoin’s launch, according to messages reviewed by CoinDesk.
Meanwhile, Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, is set to raise an additional $2 billion by selling zero-coupon convertible notes. The funds raised will mostly be used to accumulate more BTC.
As Brevan Howard Digital’s CEO and CIO — that’s just one person — stressed at Consensus Hong Kong, the cryptocurrency ecosystem has evolved since the collapse of FTX, but 24/7 risk management is still a necessity.
On the macro front, traders are focusing on minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January interest rate meeting. Indications of the potential impact of increased tariffs are a particular point of focus, given President Donald Trump’s comments on tariffs “in the neighborhood of 25% for automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical products.”
Recent U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh have led to the appointing of teams to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and commitments to “normalize the operation” of their diplomatic missions. Still, excluding representatives from Ukraine and Europe remains a point of contention. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Feb. 19, 9:30 a.m.: Shares of bitcoin-focused financial services company Fold Holdings (FLD) start trading on Nasdaq.
Feb. 19: High-performance blockchain Monad’s public testnet starts up.
Feb. 19, 11:00 a.m.: The first official State of Sei (SEI) livestream.
Feb. 19, 1:00 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) mainnet upgrade to v0.58.
Feb. 21: TON (The Open Network) becomes the exclusive blockchain infrastructure for messaging platform Telegram’s Mini App ecosystem.
Feb. 24: At epoch 115968, testing of Ethereum’s Pecta upgrade on the Holesky testnet starts.
Macro
Feb. 19, 2:00 p.m.: The Fed releases minutes of the Jan. 28-29 FOMC Meeting.
Feb. 20, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada reports January’s producer price inflation data.
PPI MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 0.2%
PPI YoY Prev. 4.1%
Feb. 20, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report for the week ended Feb. 15.
Initial Jobless Claims Est. 215K vs. Prev. 213K
Feb. 20, 5:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler giving a speech titled «Navigating Inflation Waves While Riding on the Phillips Curve» in Washington. Livestream link.
Feb. 20, 6:30 p.m.: Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications reports January’s consumer price inflation data.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. 3%
Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.6%
Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.6%
Earnings
Feb. 20: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.88
Feb. 24: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, $-0.18
Feb. 25: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, $-0.53
Feb. 25: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, $-0.09
Feb. 26: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.13
Token Events
Governance
Compound DAO is discussing evolving Compound Sandbox into Compound V4 to introduce streamlined governance, dynamic market parameters, enhance the liquidation mechanism, and improve cross-chain reward distribution.
Aave DAO is discussing expanding the AAVE governance token integration on the platform by adding AAVE collateral option to Base.
Uniswap DAO is discussing funding liquidity incentives for Uniswap V4 on the Unichain network to attract liquidity providers and traders to the protocol.
Unlocks
Feb. 21: Fast Token (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of circulating supply worth $78.6 million.
Feb. 28: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.92% of circulating supply worth $34.23 million.
Token Launches
Feb. 20: Pi Network (PI) to be listed on MEXC, OKX, Bitget, Gate.io, CoinW, DigiFinex and others.
Conferences:
CoinDesk’s Consensus to take place in Hong Kong on Feb. 18-20 and in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 2 of 3: Consensus Hong Kong
Feb. 23-March 2: ETHDenver 2025 (Denver)
Feb. 24: RWA London Summit 2025
Feb. 25: HederaCon 2025 (Denver)
March 2-3: Crypto Expo Europe (Bucharest, Romania)
March 8: Bitcoin Alive (Sydney, Australia)
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
Sonic, the recently rebranded token that used to be called Fantom, has risen by 37% in the past week. The surge has been attributed to an increase in on-chain activity and a boost in general sentiment following the rebrand.
The memecoin sector is reeling from the controversy over Argentine President Javier Milei and the Libra token. The market cap of the sector is down 4.4% in 24 hours to $72.9 billion as traders begin to pull liquidity and question the legitimacy of a market many view as an endless cycle of «pump and dumps.»
More than $35 billion worth of value has exited decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols since mid-December. Part of the slump is tied to dwindling asset prices, but there has also been a disproportionate amount of outflows from Solana-based liquid staking protocols this week, DefiLlama data shows.
Derivatives Positioning
BTC’s CME futures premium has compressed to an annualized 6%, according to data tracked by Paradigm. That’s a sign of bullish expectations becoming tempered amid continued sideways price movement.
LTC, TRX and HYPE lead growth in perpetual futures open interest.
BTC and ETH options due for settlement after February continue to exhibit bullish sentiment, although the premium for calls has reduced to some extent.
Block flows have been mixed with puts bought in the February expiry.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 1.34% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday to $96,356.41 (24hrs: +0.79%)
ETH is up 3.25% at $2,735.66 (24hrs: +1.54%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 2.80% to 3,195.66 (24hrs: +1.12%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 13 bps to 3.05%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0205% (7.4657% annualized) on Binance
DXY is up 0.14% at 107.20
Gold is up 0.31% at $2,944.53/oz
Silver is up 0.59% to $33.05/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -0.27% at 39,164.61
Hang Seng closed -0.14% at 22,944.24
FTSE is down 0.28% at 8,742.27
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.48 at 5,507.77
DJIA closed Tuesday unchanged at 44,556.34
S&P 500 closed +0.24% at 6,129.58
Nasdaq closed +0.07% at 20,041.26
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.65% at 25,648.84
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.28% at 2,497.37
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate was up 1 bps at 4.56%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% to 6,140.5
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.1% at 22,219
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.16% to 44,571
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.08 (-0.32%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02836 (1.54%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 784 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $53.61
Total Fees: 4.7 BTC / $452,182
CME Futures Open Interest: 172,530 BTC
BTC priced in gold:32.6 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 9.26%
Technical Analysis
The SOL-BTC ratio has dropped out of a multiweek consolidation range.
The technical breakdown suggests the possibility of a continued underperformance by the Solana blockchain’s token.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $333.97 (-1.11%), up 0.87% at $336.88 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $264.63 (-3.53%), up 1.27% at $268.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.31 (-4.58%).
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.05 (-5.03%), up 1.56% at $16.30.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.56 (-5.79%), up 1.12% at $11.69.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.39 (-0.96%), down 1.05% at $12.26.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.08 (-4.00%), up 1.39% at $10.22.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $22.84 (-2.39%), up 0.31% at $22.91.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $50.72 (+2.11%), up 2.09% at $51.78.
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $46.55 (-6.90%), up 5% at $49.00.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$60.7 million
Cumulative net flows: $40.06 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.163 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: $4.6 million
Cumulative net flows: $3.16 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.784 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin Agora Dollar (AUSD), which debuted on Solana at the end of January, has surpassed $100 million in market capitalization.
The next stop could be $1 billion, according to Artemis.
While You Were Sleeping
Wintermute Looking to Expand in U.S., Open Office in New York (Bloomberg): At Consensus Hong Kong, Wintermute Trading CEO Evgeny Gaevoy announced plans to offer over-the-counter products in the U.S. and expressed optimism about forthcoming regulatory changes.
Crypto Has Moved Past FTX, but Still Needs 24/7 Risk Management, Brevan Howard’s CIO Believes (CoinDesk): Three experts from traditional finance speaking at Consensus Hong Kong acknowledged crypto’s technological advances since the FTX collapse while emphasizing the need for round-the-clock risk management.
Private Jets, Political Cash Among $1B in Sam Bankman-Fried’s Forfeited Assets: Court (CoinDesk): As initial FTX bankruptcy repayments began, a U.S. federal court issued its final order of forfeiture against the convicted CEO of the now-defunct exchange, seizing around $1 billion in assets.
Donald Trump’s Late-Night Posts Send Currency Traders to Asian Markets (Financial Times): The president’s late-night and weekend announcements have disrupted regular trading patterns, prompting some U.S. and European FX traders to hedge in Asian markets.
U.K. Inflation Reaches 10-Month High, Complicating Bank of England’s Rate Path (The Wall Street Journal): The U.K.’s annual inflation rate hit 3% in January, up 0.5 percentage points from December, making it tougher for the central bank to cut rates.
BOJ Policymaker Calls for More Rate Hikes, Warns of Inflation Risk (Reuters): Hajime Takata said persistent inflationary pressures and rising wages suggest the need for further interest-rate increases. Analysts see the short-term interest rate jumping to 0.75% in July.
In the Ether
Uncategorized
The Case for User-Owned AI

Who truly controls your AI assistant? That’s a question most people haven’t asked yet. Today, millions rely on digital assistants, from voice-controlled devices to smart bots embedded in tools like Google Workspace or ChatGPT. These systems help us write, organize, search, and even think. However, the vast majority of them are rented. We don’t own the intelligence we depend on. That means someone else gets to control it.
If your digital assistant disappears tomorrow, can you do anything about it? What if the company behind it changes the terms, restricts functionality, or monetizes your data in ways you didn’t expect? These are not theoretical concerns. They’re already happening, and they point to a future we should actively shape.
David Minarsch is a speaker at Consensus 2025 in Toronto May 14-16.
As these agents become embedded in everything from our finances to our workflows and homes, the stakes around ownership become much higher. Renting is probably fine for low-stakes tasks, like a language model that helps you write emails. However, when your AI acts for you, makes decisions with your money, or manages critical parts of your life, ownership isn’t optional. It’s essential.
What Today’s AI Business Model Implies for Users
AI as we know it is built on a rental economy. You pay for access, monthly subscriptions, or pay-per-use APIs, and in exchange, you get the “illusion” of control. However, behind the scenes, platform providers hold all the power. They choose what AI model to serve, what your AI can do, how it responds, and whether you get to keep using it.
Let’s take a common example: a business team using an AI-powered assistant to automate tasks or generate insights. That assistant might live inside a centralized SaaS tool. It might be powered by a closed model hosted on someone else’s server — and running on their GPUs. It might even be trained on your company’s own data — data you no longer fully own once uploaded.
Now, imagine that the provider begins prioritizing monetization, like Google Search does with its advertising-driven results. Just as search results are heavily influenced by paid placements and commercial interests, the same will likely happen with large language models (LLMs). The assistant you relied on changes, skewing responses to benefit the provider’s business model, and there’s nothing you can do. You never had true control to begin with.
This isn’t just a business risk; it’s a personal one, too. In Italy, ChatGPT was temporarily banned in 2023 due to privacy concerns. That left thousands without access overnight. In a world where people are building increasingly personal workflows around AI, this weakness is unacceptable.
On the issue of privacy, when you rent an AI, you often upload sensitive data, sometimes unknowingly. That data can be logged, used for retraining, or even monetized. Centralized AI is opaque by design, and with geopolitical tensions rising and regulations shifting fast, depending entirely on someone else’s infrastructure is a growing liability.
What It Means to Truly Own Your Agent
Unlike passive AI models, agents are dynamic systems that can take independent actions. Ownership means controlling an agent’s core logic, decision-making parameters, and data processing. Imagine an agent that can autonomously manage resources, track expenses, set budgets, and make financial decisions on your behalf.
This naturally leads us to explore advanced infrastructures like Web3 and neobanking systems, which offer programmable ways to manage digital assets. An owned agent can operate independently within clear, user-defined boundaries, transforming AI from a responsive tool to a proactive, personalized system that truly works for you.
With true ownership, you know exactly what model you’re using and can change the underlying model if needed. You can upgrade or customize your agent without waiting on a provider. You can pause it, duplicate it, or transfer it to another device. And, most importantly, you can use it without leaking data or relying on a single centralized gatekeeper.
At Olas, we’ve been building toward this future with Pearl, an AI agent app store realised as a desktop app that allows users to run autonomous AI agents with just one click while retaining full ownership. Today, Pearl contains a number of use cases targeting primarily Web3 users to abstract the complexity of crypto interactions, with an increasing focus on Web2 use cases. Agents in Pearls hold their own wallets, operate using open-source AI models, and act independently on the user’s behalf.
When you launch Pearl, it’s like entering an app store for agents. You can pick one to manage your DeFi portfolio. You can run another that handles research or content generation. These agents don’t need constant prompting; they’re autonomous and yours. Go from paying for the agent you rent to earning from the agent you own.
We designed Pearl for crypto-native users who already understand the importance of owning their keys. However, the idea of taking self-custody of not just your funds but also your AI scales far beyond DeFi. Imagine an agent that controls your home automation, complements your social interactions, or coordinates multiple tools at work. If those agents are rented, you don’t fully control them. If you don’t fully control them, you’re increasingly outsourcing core parts of your life.
This movement is not just about tools; it’s about agency. If we fail to shift toward open, user-owned AI, we risk re-centralizing power in the hands of a few dominant players. But if we succeed, we unlock a new kind of freedom, where intelligence is not rented but truly yours, with each human complemented by an “army” of software agents.
It’s not just idealism. It’s good security. Open-source AI is auditable and peer-reviewed. Closed models are black boxes. If a humanoid robot is living in your home one day, do you want the code running it to be proprietary and controlled by a foreign cloud provider? Or do you want to be able to know exactly what it’s doing?
We have a choice: We can keep renting, trusting, and hoping nothing breaks, or we can take ownership of our tools, data, decisions, and futures.
User-owned AI isn’t just the better option. It’s the only one that respects the intelligence of the person using it.
READ MORE: Olas’ Mech Marketplace Enables AI Agents to Hire Each Other for Help
Uncategorized
Crypto Exchange Kraken Launches FX Perpetual Futures, Offers 24/7 Trading in Forex Majors

Crypto exchange Kraken has launched FX perpetual futures, expanding into traditional markets with round-the-clock trading for major forex pairs, the company said in a blog post Friday.
The first contracts, EUR/USD and GBP/USD, are now live on Kraken Pro, with more to follow.
Unlike standard forex products, FX perps have no expiry and operate 24/7, mirroring crypto futures.
With FX perps, Kraken is doubling down on serving institutional and professional traders looking for deeper exposure to fiat markets through a crypto-native platform, the company said.
Crypto and traditional financial markets are increasingly converging.
Kraken recently launched commission-free trading for U.S.-listed stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), opening access to traditional financial markets from within the same platform it uses for cryptocurrencies and positioning itself to compete more directly with trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD).
«Investors increasingly expect a unified trading experience that spans crypto, FX, and equities. With our recent U.S. equities launch and the addition of FX perpetuals, Kraken is delivering a comprehensive platform designed for today’s multi-asset trader,» said Alexia Theodorou, head of derivatives at Kraken, in emailed comments.
Kraken clients traded $5.4B in FX spot volume year-to-date, with $3.5B of it in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
The exchange is teaming up with Mastercard to let crypto holders in the U.K. and Europe spend their digital assets at more than 150 million merchants worldwide, Mastercard said earlier this month
Read more: Kraken Teams Up With Mastercard to Introduce Crypto Debit Cards
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
Uncategorized
Friends With Benefits Grows Up

When Friends With Benefits burst into crypto consciousness in 2020, it was the kind of FOMO-inducing project that immediately had people talking. With a wink-wink, sexy name and members including musicians Erykah Badu and Azealia Banks, it was a club that many wanted to be a part of.
Emerging at a time when everyone was locked down and hankering for connection, it filled a void and showed that crypto could bring people together for real. About 6,000 bought into the token (becoming members) and chapters sprouted up all over the world, centering on hipster-tech hubs like LA and NYC.
The New York Times, as it tends to do with crypto, gently mocked the idea. A 2022 profile opened with an anecdote about members developing a “flavored, sparkling yerba maté” with a coffee company. “It makes your soda $6 instead of $2,” said one member. The inference was clear: this was crypto kids with ideas, disposable income, plenty of time on their hands and not much to show for it.
Still, the New York Times hit on what was definitely new about FWB. It called the group — which was mostly formed on Discord — a “decentralized Soho House” and “a V.I.P. lounge for crypto’s creative class.” It was tokenizing a community (with a DAO) in a way that proved that you could create something valuable IRL as much as online. The NYT said the group had raised $10 million from investors and that, after a funding round led by Andreessen Horowitz, it was valued at $100 million.
It wasn’t clear what FWB did exactly. Sure, it was good at organizing cool events around the world. It was good at building community, generating FOMO through the media and boosting its token price. But after that? TBD.
“The original model was just a group chat with a token. The benefits at that time were just alpha,” CEO Greg Bresnitz said in an interview.
Fast forward to 2025, following FTX and The Crash, FWB looks like a more serious outfit. Today, it’s focused on building products that people actually want to use and has hopes to broaden Web3 beyond specialized financial products. Less yerba maté, more in-the-weeds innovation in music, film and culture.
“This is a good inflection point for the industry. We have the opportunity to encourage a new wave of builders to the space. Making that vision and the pie bigger is incredibly important,” said Bresnitz. “We’ve done really well in the physical world. Now we’re focused on the revitalization of the online world and bringing that value back.”
This week, FWB announced Friends With Builders, a cohort-based building program that’s partnered with AWS, Alchemy, ThirdWeb, QuickNode, Akave, Filecoin, Base, World and several others. The idea is to invite creative technologists to work collectively quarter-by-quarter on early-stage projects, using tools provided by the partners. The first cohort (application deadline: April 28) will be focused on developing products around AI agents.
Bresnitz stresses that Friends With Builders is definitely not a hackathon.
“The general model of the hackathon doesn’t work. You get eight hours at a conference, 48 hours to build it and then get the prize money. That only speaks to a certain type of builder who can work intensively over 48 hours,” Bresnitz said.
With Friends With Builders, the reward is the developed product, not the prize and gong given out by the hackathon organizers. It’s also focused on products where the Web 3 technology is under the hood, rather than the thing itself.
“Someone could come in and build the 700th DeFi platform and we’re not going to stop them. They totally can. That’s great. But, for me, personally, what I believe the industry needs is to bundle all this up into something that feels totally normal,” Bresnitz said.
He points to projects like Blackbird, the restaurant loyalty app, as an example of the type of product Friends With Builders wants to incubate. Blackbird is useful and has mainstream appeal, and the crypto element (it has a cryptocurrency called FLY) is de-emphasized. The point is utility, not that it’s crypto.
“We need a new type of person in this space,” Bresnitz said. “The persona of FWB has always been creative technologist. These are people who understand what people want and they’re looking for technology to support that. That’s different from what we see oftentimes [in crypto], which is ‘we built a hammer that’s also a screwdriver, who wants it?’”
Bresnitz argues that crypto has created great tooling infrastructure for builders. Now it needs to develop products that de-emphasize the technology. Builders in his program will have access to founders at the partner groups via Discord and meetups. They’ll receive developer credits and be able to tap extensive DevRel (developer support).
Friends With Builders will run in quarters 1, 2 and 4. Quarter 3 will be left for FWB’s annual FEST gathering in California, where the builders will showcase their work. Last year, Base, a key FWB partner, held its annual get-together, Base Camp, at the same location (near Idyllwild) shortly before FEST began.
As a pilot for the new program, FWB recently organized a cohort with World (previously Worldcoin). FWB/World received 140 applications and the participating builders created 40 new mini-apps. The builders flew to Buenos Aires to take part in Crecimiento, and now some will take part in a demo day in New York on May 21. Two of those projects already have term sheets from investors.
Bresnitz is a strong advocate for his initiative. But he also displays a humility toward crypto that isn’t always evident in conversations with other founders. He believes Web3 has yet to show what it can really do for the world.
“We haven’t cracked the code yet. This to me is about saying ‘can we try something different?’”
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