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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Volatility Near 2-Year Low Is IBIT’s Gain, Strategy’s Pain

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By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

If there was any doubt that popular interest in bitcoin BTC is on the wane as the price treads water just below its record high, a quick peek at Google’s search trends provides the evidence.

Searches for the largest cryptocurrency now rank below 25, a sign of significant absence of retail interest, euphoria or speculative greed in the market with BTC holding between $102,000 and $110,000 for most of the past month. Compare that to the ranking of as high as 40 it hit during November’s rally, when bitcoin surged to nearly $100,000.

This subdued interest coincides with historically low volatility levels. The Bitcoin Volatility Index (DVOL) is hovering just above 40, one of the lowest readings in over two years, beaten only by trough of mid-2023.

Deribit’s implied volatility metrics further emphasize the market’s stagnation: The IV Rank, which shows how current implied volatility compares with the past year, is at just 2.3, close to its lowest point of the year, and the IV Percentile is at an astonishing 0.3, indicating that implied volatility has been lower than this level less than 1% of the time over the last 12 months.

This lack of movement has prompted Strategy (MSTR), a company heavily exposed to bitcoin’s price action, to issue new perpetual preferred equity rather than tapping its at-the-market offering of common stock, a strategy aimed at keeping its multiple net asset value (mNAV) above 1.

Meanwhile, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is benefiting from the reduced volatility, attracting more traditional and conservative investors who prefer stable exposure to bitcoin without the wild price swings.

All eyes now turn to the U.S. jobs report scheduled for Friday, which could serve as the next major market catalyst. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%, while non-farm payrolls are projected to come in at 130,000, the weakest figure since February. Any deviation from these estimates could spark renewed volatility across markets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • June 4, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets: From Blueprint to a Functional Framework.” Livestream link.
    • June 6: Sia (SC) is set to activate Phase 1 of its V2 hard fork, the largest upgrade in the project’s history. Phase 2 will get activated on July 6.
    • June 9, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable on «DeFi and the American Spirit»
    • June 10, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Final Services Committee hearing for Markup of Various Measures, including the crypto market structure bill, i.e. the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.
    • June 16 (market open): 21Shares executes 3-for-1 share split for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); ticker and NAV remain unchanged.
  • Macro
    • June 4, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases May Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 49.4
      • Services PMI Prev. 48.9
    • June 4, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) May U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Est. 52.1 vs. Prev. 50.6
      • Services PMI Est. 52.3 vs. Prev. 50.8
    • June 4, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases May U.S. services sector data.
      • Services PMI Est. Est. 52 vs. Prev. 51.6
    • June 5, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 31.
      • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 235K vs. Prev. 240K
      • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1910K vs. Prev. 1919K
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • None in the near future.

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • June 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 2.95% of its circulating supply worth $58.09 million.
    • June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $56.10 million.
    • June 13: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.33% of its circulating supply worth $14.02 million.
    • June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $17.68 million.
    • June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $11.10 million.
  • Token Launches
    • June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends.
    • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN).

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • Leading Pump.fun-spawned memecoins, among them FARTCOIN, PNUT, MOODENG and GOAT, slipped as much as 6% intraday, erasing roughly $150 million in combined market value after reports circulated that the platform is planning to raise $1 billion in a token sale.
  • Traders worry a new Pump token — reportedly seeking a $4 billion fully-diluted valuation — could siphon liquidity and add fresh supply, pressuring existing coins.
  • The pullback comes weeks after Pump.fun began sharing 50% of PumpSwap fees (0.05% per trade) with token creators, a move meant to curb “dump on the community” incentives.
  • Crypto Twitter praised Pump’s revenue haul but questioned why a firm already boasting approximately $700 million in earnings needs more capital, highlighting the tension between growth ambitions and community expectations.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC options open interest on Deribit reached an all-time high of $38.95 billion on May 27, driven by strong activity around the 27 June expiry, which now holds $12.66 billion in notional value.
  • Call-side dominance remains clear, with 195,928 contracts versus 110,259 puts, and the 24-hour put/call volume ratio falling to just 0.43.
  • Upside strike interest on Deribit remains concentrated around the $100,000–$150,000 band, with the June 27 $108,000 and $110,000 calls trading notional volumes of $104.9 million and $104.8 million respectively. Open interest by strike also shows more than 15,000 calls open at the $120,000 level, worth over $1.6 billion in notional volume.
  • According to Coinalyze, BTC continues to dominate derivatives markets, with $33.4 billion in aggregate open interest — by far the highest across tracked assets. ETH ranks second at $16.2 billion, followed by SOL ($3.4B), XRP ($1.8B), and DOGE ($1.1B), highlighting a clear concentration in BTC.
  • Liquidation leverage maps by Coinglass show aggressive long exposure concentrated between $104,000 and $108,000, with $83.8 million in liquidation leverage built near $105,500 and a further $64.5 million around $104,500 . These zones now mark key levels to watch for forced unwind risk should price retrace.

Market Movements

  • BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $105,875.59 (24hrs: +0.53%)
  • ETH is up 1.07% at $2,644.68 (24hrs: +1.3%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.51% at 3,146.13 (24hrs: +0.81%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 6 bps at 3.07%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0041% (4.4545% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is unchanged at 99.18
  • Gold is up 1.01% at $3015.9/oz
  • Silver is up 0.48% at $34.67/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed +0.8% at 37,747.45
  • Hang Seng closed +0.6% at 23,654.03
  • FTSE is up 0.29% at 8,812.23
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.88% at 5,422.97
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday +0.51% at 42,519.64
  • S&P 500 closed +0.58% at 5,970.37
  • Nasdaq closed +0.81% at 19,398.96
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.14% at 26,426.6
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.43% at 2,578.93
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.46%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.18% at 5,992.0
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.14% at 21,737.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.11% at 42,645.0

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 64.03 (-0.22%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02500 (1.62%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 927 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $52.83
  • Total Fees: 4.8 BTC / $508,729
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 148,790 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.2 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.85%

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis for June 4, 2025

  • Ether ETH has shown notable resilience over the past couple of weeks, holding its ground better than both bitcoin and Solana’s SOL.
  • The 200-day exponential moving average continues to act as a firm support level on the daily chart, reinforcing the bullish structure. For upside momentum to continue, bulls will be looking for ETH to maintain this support and break above the daily order block that has capped price action over the past month.
  • With ether outperforming other major digital assets, sustained strength in the broader market could pave the way for a move beyond $3,000 in the short to medium term.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $387.43 (+4.07%), +0.12% at $387.91 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $258.91 (+4.94%), +1.07% at $261.67
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.24 (+3.31%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.33 (+6.75%), -0.26% at $15.29
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.03 (+6.49%), +0.55% at $9.08
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $11.8 (+7.96%), +1.02% at $11.92
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.21 (+6.97%), -0.22% at $9.19
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $17.92 (+4.19%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.58 (-0.03%), +0.62% at $35.80
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.85 (+12.47%), unchanged in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $375.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $44.46 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.20 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $109.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $3.25 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~3.69 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

Chart of the day for June 4, 2025

  • June has historically been a muted month for bitcoin performance. Since 2013, the average return for BTC stands at -0.28%, making it the second-worst performing month of the year.
  • Only September is worse, on average.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

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ETH Price Surges as $2.9B Inflows, EthCC, and Robinhood’s L2 Fuel Bullish Sentiment

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Ether (ETH) 3.5% in the past 24 hours to $2,519 as of 18:59 UTC on June 30, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model, supported by continued institutional demand, network upgrades, and major retail platform integrations.

Institutional interest remains robust, with CoinShares reporting $429 million in net inflows into ether investment products over the past week and nearly $2.9 billion year-to-date. This trend has coincided with a declining ETH supply on exchanges and rising staking levels, with over 35 million ETH —a round 28% of the total supply — now locked in proof-of-stake contracts. Market analysts suggest that these factors are reducing liquid supply and bolstering ether’s long-term investment thesis.

Robinhood announced on Monday that it is developing its own Layer-2 blockchain using Arbitrum’s rollup infrastructure. The network is not yet live, but the initiative will eventually support Ethereum staking, tokenized stock trading, and perpetual crypto futures. Although the L2 is under development, the decision to build it on Ethereum’s rollup ecosystem is seen as a long-term vote of confidence in Ethereum’s scalability roadmap.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has also introduced a new digital identity framework using zero-knowledge proofs. This system allows users to verify traits or credentials without revealing private data and is designed to help Web3 apps incorporate privacy-preserving identity systems. Analysts view this as a key step toward wider adoption of decentralized applications requiring sensitive user authentication.

Meanwhile, the Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) kicked off in Cannes, France, gathering more than 6,400 attendees and 500 speakers. The event showcases Ethereum’s ongoing developer momentum through presentations on new tools, scaling strategies, and protocol improvements.

Despite the positive momentum, ETH remains just below its 200-day moving average, suggesting technical barriers still exist. However, the confluence of inflows, developer progress, and scaling plans continues to support a constructive outlook.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • Ether traded between $2,438.50 and $2,523 from June 29 19:00 to June 30 18:00, marking a 3.47% range.
  • The largest spike occurred during the 22:00–23:00 UTC window on June 29, when ETH surged 2.9% on volume of 368,292 ETH, briefly pushing through the $2,500 barrier.
  • On June 30 at 15:00 UTC, ETH found strong support around $2,438 on above-average volume, confirming a bullish floor.
  • A local high of $2,523 was reached earlier in the day, establishing resistance just above the psychological $2,500 level.
  • During the final hour from 18:00 to 18:59 UTC on June 30, ETH retraced from an intraday peak of $2,499.19 to close at $2,487.19.
  • A sharp upward move between 18:20–18:21 saw ETH climb 1.6% on 6,318 ETH volume, stalling near $2,499.
  • As of 20:23 UTC on June 30, ETH traded at $2,519, up 3.49% in 24 hours, signaling renewed bullish momentum into the Asia open.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Circle Applies for National Trust Bank Charter

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Circle (CRCL), the company behind the USDC stablecoin, said Monday it has filed an application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to form a federally regulated national trust bank.

A federal trust charter would bring Circle under direct OCC oversight, aligning it with how traditional financial institutions are regulated. If approved, the new entity, which would be called First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A. would oversee custody of USDC reserves and offer services tailored to institutions. If approved, Circle would join the ranks of federally chartered institutions like Paxos and Anchorage, both of which previously secured trust bank status to offer crypto-related services nationwide.

The trust bank status would allow Circle to operate across state lines without obtaining separate licenses in each state — a hurdle that has complicated expansion for many digital asset companies. It would also permit Circle to offer regulated digital asset custody services to institutional customers.

The move signals a strategic effort by Circle to solidify its regulatory standing as the U.S. mulls legislation like the GENIUS Act, which would create new guardrails for dollar-backed stablecoins. The company said becoming a national trust bank would help it meet anticipated requirements under the bill, which passed through the Senate earlier this month and now awaits a vote in the House of Representatives.

«By applying for a national trust charter, Circle is taking proactive steps to further strengthen our USDC infrastructure,» Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire said in a statement. «We will align with emerging U.S. regulation for the issuance and operation of dollar-denominated payment stablecoins, which we believe can enhance the reach and resilience of the U.S. dollar, and support the development of crucial, market neutral infrastructure for the world’s leading institutions to build on.”

Circle went public last month and issues the world’s second-largest stablecoin, USDC, and the leading euro-pegged token EURC.

The OCC, which oversees national banks and federal savings associations, must still review and approve Circle’s application. The agency has granted similar charters to a handful of crypto firms in recent years, signaling growing regulatory acceptance of digital asset companies operating within the traditional banking framework.

UPDATE (June 30, 2025, 20:50 UTC): Adds additional information.

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HBAR Climbs 2.1% as Traders Digest ETF Review, AI Launch, and Energy Governance Move

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Hedera’s native token HBAR HBAR extended its rally on Sunday, trading up 2.1% to $0.1519 as of 19:56 UTC on June 30, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.

The move follows a flurry of ecosystem updates that broaden Hedera’s enterprise reach and reinforce its growing footprint in AI, gaming, and sustainability.

On June 24, Blockchain for Energy (B4E), a nonprofit focused on sustainability data management in the energy sector, officially joined the Hedera Governing Council. B4E already runs its carbon tracking platform on the Hedera network, and its addition brings domain expertise in emissions reporting and digital MRV (measurement, reporting, and verification) standards. As a council member, B4E will run its own node and contribute to governance decisions—particularly those aligned with environmental transparency and enterprise accountability.

Just two days later, Hedera unveiled its AI Studio, an open-source software development kit designed to help developers build decentralized applications powered by artificial intelligence. The suite includes an Agent Kit that integrates with LangChain and enables AI agents to interact directly with Hedera’s consensus and token services using natural language commands. The goal is to lower the barrier for AI-native apps while maintaining onchain auditability, transparency, and regulatory alignment.

On the gaming front, Hedera Foundation announced on June 19 a partnership with The Binary Holdings (TBH), a Web3 infrastructure firm. The collaboration aims to bring Hedera-based gaming apps to mobile users in Southeast Asia via OneWave, TBH’s decentralized app store. Integrated into native telecom platforms across Indonesia and the Philippines, OneWave is expected to onboard over 169 million users with built-in Web3 rewards and onchain verification.

Meanwhile, in mid-June, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission began a formal review of the Canary HBAR ETF, which would offer direct exposure to HBAR via a regulated investment vehicle. A public comment period is now open ahead of the SEC’s July 7 deadline. If approved, the ETF could catalyze broader institutional access and further legitimize HBAR’s role in capital markets—though regulatory scrutiny remains high, and analysts remain divided on long-term token utility.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • HBAR traded in a 4.1% range from $0.1478 to $0.1538 between June 29 19:00 UTC and June 30 18:59 UTC.
  • A strong breakout occurred during the 22:00 hour on June 29, with price surging to $0.154 on volume of 104.5M units.
  • Major support formed at $0.148 between 14:00–15:00 UTC on June 30, with 80.6M units traded.
  • From 18:00–18:59 UTC on June 30, HBAR showed a V-shaped recovery, dipping to $0.149 before rebounding.
  • During the 18:20–18:21 UTC window on June 30, price stabilized with 1.3M in volume, forming short-term support at $0.149.
  • As of 19:56 UTC on June 30, HBAR traded at $0.1519, up 2.1% for the day with resistance seen at $0.1538.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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