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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Volatility Near 2-Year Low Is IBIT’s Gain, Strategy’s Pain

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By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

If there was any doubt that popular interest in bitcoin BTC is on the wane as the price treads water just below its record high, a quick peek at Google’s search trends provides the evidence.

Searches for the largest cryptocurrency now rank below 25, a sign of significant absence of retail interest, euphoria or speculative greed in the market with BTC holding between $102,000 and $110,000 for most of the past month. Compare that to the ranking of as high as 40 it hit during November’s rally, when bitcoin surged to nearly $100,000.

This subdued interest coincides with historically low volatility levels. The Bitcoin Volatility Index (DVOL) is hovering just above 40, one of the lowest readings in over two years, beaten only by trough of mid-2023.

Deribit’s implied volatility metrics further emphasize the market’s stagnation: The IV Rank, which shows how current implied volatility compares with the past year, is at just 2.3, close to its lowest point of the year, and the IV Percentile is at an astonishing 0.3, indicating that implied volatility has been lower than this level less than 1% of the time over the last 12 months.

This lack of movement has prompted Strategy (MSTR), a company heavily exposed to bitcoin’s price action, to issue new perpetual preferred equity rather than tapping its at-the-market offering of common stock, a strategy aimed at keeping its multiple net asset value (mNAV) above 1.

Meanwhile, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is benefiting from the reduced volatility, attracting more traditional and conservative investors who prefer stable exposure to bitcoin without the wild price swings.

All eyes now turn to the U.S. jobs report scheduled for Friday, which could serve as the next major market catalyst. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%, while non-farm payrolls are projected to come in at 130,000, the weakest figure since February. Any deviation from these estimates could spark renewed volatility across markets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • June 4, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets: From Blueprint to a Functional Framework.” Livestream link.
    • June 6: Sia (SC) is set to activate Phase 1 of its V2 hard fork, the largest upgrade in the project’s history. Phase 2 will get activated on July 6.
    • June 9, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable on «DeFi and the American Spirit»
    • June 10, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Final Services Committee hearing for Markup of Various Measures, including the crypto market structure bill, i.e. the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.
    • June 16 (market open): 21Shares executes 3-for-1 share split for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); ticker and NAV remain unchanged.
  • Macro
    • June 4, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases May Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 49.4
      • Services PMI Prev. 48.9
    • June 4, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) May U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Est. 52.1 vs. Prev. 50.6
      • Services PMI Est. 52.3 vs. Prev. 50.8
    • June 4, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases May U.S. services sector data.
      • Services PMI Est. Est. 52 vs. Prev. 51.6
    • June 5, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 31.
      • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 235K vs. Prev. 240K
      • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1910K vs. Prev. 1919K
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • None in the near future.

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • June 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 2.95% of its circulating supply worth $58.09 million.
    • June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $56.10 million.
    • June 13: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.33% of its circulating supply worth $14.02 million.
    • June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $17.68 million.
    • June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $11.10 million.
  • Token Launches
    • June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends.
    • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN).

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • Leading Pump.fun-spawned memecoins, among them FARTCOIN, PNUT, MOODENG and GOAT, slipped as much as 6% intraday, erasing roughly $150 million in combined market value after reports circulated that the platform is planning to raise $1 billion in a token sale.
  • Traders worry a new Pump token — reportedly seeking a $4 billion fully-diluted valuation — could siphon liquidity and add fresh supply, pressuring existing coins.
  • The pullback comes weeks after Pump.fun began sharing 50% of PumpSwap fees (0.05% per trade) with token creators, a move meant to curb “dump on the community” incentives.
  • Crypto Twitter praised Pump’s revenue haul but questioned why a firm already boasting approximately $700 million in earnings needs more capital, highlighting the tension between growth ambitions and community expectations.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC options open interest on Deribit reached an all-time high of $38.95 billion on May 27, driven by strong activity around the 27 June expiry, which now holds $12.66 billion in notional value.
  • Call-side dominance remains clear, with 195,928 contracts versus 110,259 puts, and the 24-hour put/call volume ratio falling to just 0.43.
  • Upside strike interest on Deribit remains concentrated around the $100,000–$150,000 band, with the June 27 $108,000 and $110,000 calls trading notional volumes of $104.9 million and $104.8 million respectively. Open interest by strike also shows more than 15,000 calls open at the $120,000 level, worth over $1.6 billion in notional volume.
  • According to Coinalyze, BTC continues to dominate derivatives markets, with $33.4 billion in aggregate open interest — by far the highest across tracked assets. ETH ranks second at $16.2 billion, followed by SOL ($3.4B), XRP ($1.8B), and DOGE ($1.1B), highlighting a clear concentration in BTC.
  • Liquidation leverage maps by Coinglass show aggressive long exposure concentrated between $104,000 and $108,000, with $83.8 million in liquidation leverage built near $105,500 and a further $64.5 million around $104,500 . These zones now mark key levels to watch for forced unwind risk should price retrace.

Market Movements

  • BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $105,875.59 (24hrs: +0.53%)
  • ETH is up 1.07% at $2,644.68 (24hrs: +1.3%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.51% at 3,146.13 (24hrs: +0.81%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 6 bps at 3.07%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0041% (4.4545% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is unchanged at 99.18
  • Gold is up 1.01% at $3015.9/oz
  • Silver is up 0.48% at $34.67/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed +0.8% at 37,747.45
  • Hang Seng closed +0.6% at 23,654.03
  • FTSE is up 0.29% at 8,812.23
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.88% at 5,422.97
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday +0.51% at 42,519.64
  • S&P 500 closed +0.58% at 5,970.37
  • Nasdaq closed +0.81% at 19,398.96
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.14% at 26,426.6
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.43% at 2,578.93
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.46%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.18% at 5,992.0
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.14% at 21,737.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.11% at 42,645.0

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 64.03 (-0.22%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02500 (1.62%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 927 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $52.83
  • Total Fees: 4.8 BTC / $508,729
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 148,790 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.2 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.85%

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis for June 4, 2025

  • Ether ETH has shown notable resilience over the past couple of weeks, holding its ground better than both bitcoin and Solana’s SOL.
  • The 200-day exponential moving average continues to act as a firm support level on the daily chart, reinforcing the bullish structure. For upside momentum to continue, bulls will be looking for ETH to maintain this support and break above the daily order block that has capped price action over the past month.
  • With ether outperforming other major digital assets, sustained strength in the broader market could pave the way for a move beyond $3,000 in the short to medium term.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $387.43 (+4.07%), +0.12% at $387.91 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $258.91 (+4.94%), +1.07% at $261.67
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.24 (+3.31%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.33 (+6.75%), -0.26% at $15.29
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.03 (+6.49%), +0.55% at $9.08
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $11.8 (+7.96%), +1.02% at $11.92
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.21 (+6.97%), -0.22% at $9.19
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $17.92 (+4.19%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.58 (-0.03%), +0.62% at $35.80
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.85 (+12.47%), unchanged in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $375.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $44.46 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.20 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $109.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $3.25 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~3.69 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

Chart of the day for June 4, 2025

  • June has historically been a muted month for bitcoin performance. Since 2013, the average return for BTC stands at -0.28%, making it the second-worst performing month of the year.
  • Only September is worse, on average.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

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HBAR Retreats Amid Constrained Range Trading and Diminishing Volumes

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HBAR spent much of the past 23 hours locked in a narrow range, oscillating between $0.23 and $0.24 in what amounted to just 2% volatility. The token briefly touched session highs at $0.24 on Sept. 16 around 18:00 UTC before sliding lower, ultimately finding repeated support near $0.23. Multiple rebound attempts from that level throughout Sept. 17’s morning trading hinted at a potential price floor, though conviction remained limited.

Market activity tapered alongside the price drift. Trading volumes fell steadily after an early spike, underscoring weakening participation and suggesting that bullish momentum has largely faded. The constrained range and muted volatility reinforced the impression of indecision, with buyers and sellers unwilling to press for a breakout.

The final hour of the observed period offered a sharper display of market sentiment. At 13:33 UTC on Sept. 17, HBAR sold off abruptly from $0.24 to $0.23, accompanied by an outsized 2.56 million in volume just three minutes later. Yet the coin staged a measured recovery, climbing back to end near session highs, encapsulating the day’s push and pull between sellers and opportunistic dip buyers.

Overall, HBAR slipped 1% across the 23-hour window. While the establishment of support around $0.23 provides some stability, declining volumes and sustained downward pressure leave the market vulnerable. The swift sell-off and subsequent rebound illustrate the uncertainty still shaping HBAR’s outlook, with bearish sentiment prevailing but tempered by signs of technical resilience.

HBAR/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators Assessment

  • Price action demonstrated consolidation within a 2% range between $0.23-$0.24 resistance and support thresholds.
  • Volume contracted from 45.7 million to 4.7 million tokens indicating deteriorating market participation.
  • Multiple rebounds at $0.23 support level suggest potential price floor establishment.
  • Acute sell-off at 13:33 followed by recovery indicates volatile intraday sentiment fluctuations.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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The Protocol: ETH Exit Queue Gridlocks As Validators Pile Up

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Welcome to The Protocol, CoinDesk’s weekly wrap of the most important stories in cryptocurrency tech development. I’m Margaux Nijkerk, a reporter at CoinDesk.

In this issue:

  • Ethereum Faces Validator Bottleneck With 2.5M ETH Awaiting Exit
  • Is Ethereum’s DeFi Future on L2s? Liquidity, Innovation Say Perhaps Yes
  • Ethereum Foundation Starts New AI Team to Support Agentic Payments
  • American Express Introduces Blockchain-Based ‘Travel Stamps’
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Network News

ETHEREUM VALIDATOR EXIT QUEUE FACES BOTTLENECK: Ethereum’s proof-of-stake system is facing its largest test yet. As of mid-September, roughly 2.5 million ETH — valued at roughly $11.25 billion — is waiting to leave the validator set, according to validator queue dashboards. The backlog pushed exit wait times to more than 46 days on Sept. 14, the longest in Ethereum’s short staking history, dashboards show. The last peak, in August, put the exit queue at 18 days. The initial spark came on Sept. 9, when Kiln, a large infrastructure provider, chose to exit all of its validators as a safety precaution. The move, triggered by recent security incidents including the NPM supply-chain attack and the SwissBorg breach, pushed around 1.6 million ETH into the queue at once. Though unrelated to Ethereum’s staking protocol itself, the hacks rattled confidence enough for Kiln to hit pause, highlighting how events in the broader crypto ecosystem can cascade into Ethereum’s validator dynamics. In a blog post from staking provider Figment, Senior Analyst Benjamin Thalman noted that the current exit queue build up isn’t only about security. After ETH has rallied more than 160% since April, some stakers are simply taking profits. Others, especially institutional players, are shifting their portfolios’ exposure. At the same time, the number of validators entering the Ethereum staking ecosystem has been steadily rising. Ethereum’s churn limit, which is a protocol safeguard that caps how many validators can enter or exit over a certain time period, is currently capped at 256 ETH per epoch (about 6.4 minutes), restricting how quickly validators can join or leave the network. The churn limit is meant to keep the network stable. With more than 2.5M ETH lined up, stakers on Sept. 16 face 44 days before even reaching the cooldown step. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.

IS L2 DEFI EATING AT ETHEREUM’S L1 DEFI?: Ethereum is in the midst of a paradox. Even as ether hit record highs in late August, decentralized finance (DeFi) activity on Ethereum’s layer-1 (L1) looks muted compared to its peak in late 2021. Fees collected on mainnet in August were just $44 million, a 44% drop from the prior month. Meanwhile, layer-2 (L2) networks like Arbitrum and Base are booming, with $20 billion and $15 billion in total value locked (TVL) respectively. This divergence raises a crucial question: are L2s cannibalizing Ethereum’s DeFi activity, or is the ecosystem evolving into a multi-layered financial architecture? AJ Warner, the chief strategy officer of Offchain Labs, the developer firm behind layer-2 Arbitrum, argues that the metrics are more nuanced than just layer-2 DeFi chipping at the layer 1.In an interview with CoinDesk, Warner said that focusing solely on TVL misses the point, and that Ethereum is increasingly functioning as crypto’s “global settlement layer,” a foundation for high-value issuance and institutional activity. Products like Franklin Templeton’s tokenized funds or BlackRock’s BUIDL product launch directly on Ethereum L1 — activity that isn’t fully captured in DeFi metrics but underscores Ethereum’s role as the bedrock of crypto finance. Ethereum as a layer-1 blockchain is the secure but relatively slow and expensive base network. Layer-2s are scaling networks built on top of it, designed to handle transactions faster and at a fraction of the cost before ultimately settling back to Ethereum for security. That’s why they’ve become so appealing to traders and builders alike. Metrics like TVL, the amount of crypto deposited in DeFi protocols, highlight this shift as activity is moved to L2s where lower fees and quicker confirmations make everyday DeFi far more practical. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.

EF STARTS DECENTRALIZED AI TEAM: The Ethereum Foundation (EF) is creating a dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) group to make Ethereum the settlement and coordination layer for what it calls the “machine economy,” according to research scientist Davide Crapis. Crapis, who announced the initiative on X, said the new dAI Team will pursue two priorities: enabling AI agents to pay and coordinate without intermediaries, and building a decentralized AI stack that avoids reliance on a small number of large companies. He said Ethereum’s neutrality, verifiability and censorship resistance make it a natural base layer for intelligent systems. The EF is a non-profit organization based in Zug, Switzerland, that funds and coordinates the development of the Ethereum blockchain. It does not control the network but plays a catalytic role by supporting researchers, developers and ecosystem projects. Its remit includes funding upgrades such as Ethereum 2.0, zero-knowledge proofs and layer-2 scaling, alongside community programs like the Ecosystem Support Program. The foundation also organizes events such as Devcon to foster collaboration and acts as a policy advocate for blockchain adoption. In 2025, EF restructured to handle Ethereum’s growth, emphasizing ecosystem acceleration, founder support and enterprise outreach. The new dAI Team represents a continuation of this shift toward specialized units addressing emerging technologies. — Siamak Masnavi Read more.

AMERICAN EXPRESS DABBLES IN BLOCKCHAIN TRAVEL STAMPS: American Express has introduced Ethereum-based «travel stamps» to create a commemorative record of travel experiences. The travel experience tokens, which are technically NFTs (ERC 721 tokens), are minted and stored on Coinbase’s Base network, said Colin Marlowe, vice president of Emerging Partnerships at Amex Digital Labs. The travel stamps, which can be collected anytime a traveler uses their card, are not tradable NTF tokens, Marlowe said, and neither do they function like blockchain-based loyalty points — at least for the time being. “It’s a valueless ERC-721, so technically an NFT, but we just didn’t brand it as such. We wanted to speak to it in a way that was natural for the travel experience itself, and so we talk about these things as stamps, and they’re represented as tokens,” Marlowe said in an interview. “As an identifier and representation of history the stamps could create interesting partnership angles over time. We weren’t trying to sell these or sort of generate any like short term revenue. The angle is to make a travel experience with Amex feel really rich, really different, and kind of set it apart,” he said. Fireblocks is also involved, supporting Amex as its Wallet-as-a-Service provider for the passport product, a Fireblocks representative said. The Amex travel app also includes a range of tools for travels and Centurion Lounge upgrades, the company said. – Ian Allison Read more.

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In Other News

  • Blockchain-based real world asset (RWA) specialists Centrifuge and Plume have launched the Anemoy Tokenized Apollo Diversified Credit Fund (ACRDX), backed by a $50 million anchor investment from Grove, a credit infrastructure protocol within the Sky Ecosystem. The fund gives blockchain investors exposure to Apollo’s diversified global credit strategy, spanning direct corporate lending, asset-backed lending and dislocated credit, a type of mispriced debt due to market stress and lack of liquidity. ACRDX will be distributed through Plume’s Nest Credit vaults under the ticker nACRDX, making the strategy accessible to institutional investors on-chain. By packaging Apollo’s portfolio in tokenized form, the fund aims to lower entry barriers and increase transparency for investors seeking exposure to private credit markets, according to a press release. — Ian Allison Read more.
  • Google is taking a step toward merging artificial intelligence (AI) and digital money, rolling out a new open-source protocol that lets AI applications send and receive payments, which includes support for stablecoins, digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar, according to a press release. To incorporate stablecoin rails, Google teamed up with the U.S.-based crypto exchange Coinbase, which has been developing its own AI-integrated payments infrastructure. The company also worked with the Ethereum Foundation and coordinated with more than 60 other organizations, including Salesforce, American Express and Etsy, to cover traditional finance use cases. The move builds on Google’s earlier work to establish a standard for “AI agents.” These digital agents may eventually handle complex tasks, such as negotiating mortgages or shopping for clothes, without direct human input. — Oliver Knight Read more.
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Regulatory and Policy

  • Contrary to claims from the U.S. banking industry, stablecoins do not pose a risk to the financial system, according to the chief policy officer at crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), Faryar Shirzad. Banks’ claims that they do are are myths crafted to defend their revenues, he wrote in a blog post. «The central claim — that stablecoins will cause a mass outflow of bank deposits — simply doesn’t hold up,» Shirzad wrote. «Recent analysis shows no meaningful link between stablecoin adoption and deposit flight for community banks and there’s no reason to believe big banks would fare any worse.» Larger lenders still hold trillions of dollars at the Federal Reserve and if deposits were really at risk, he argued, they would be competing harder for customer funds by offering higher interest rates rather than parking cash at the central bank. According to Shirzad, the real reason for banks’ opposition is the payments business. Stablecoins, digital tokens whose value is pegged to a real-life asset such as the dollar, offer faster and cheaper ways to move money, threatening an estimated $187 billion in annual swipe-fee revenue for traditional card networks and banks. He compared the current pushback to earlier battles against ATMs and online banking, when incumbents warned of systemic dangers but, he said, were ultimately trying to protect entrenched profits. — Jesse Hamilton Read more.
  • U.S. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said crypto’s time has come, pledging to modernize the U.S. securities rulebook and expand “Project Crypto” to bring markets on-chain. Speaking in Paris on Sept. 10 at the OECD’s inaugural Roundtable on Global Financial Markets, Atkins said the SEC is shifting away from enforcement-driven policymaking and will provide clear rules for tokens, custody, and trading platforms. “Policy will no longer be set by ad hoc enforcement actions,” he said, calling the new approach “a golden age of financial innovation on U.S. soil.” Atkins said most tokens are not securities and promised bright-line rules for determining when crypto assets fall under SEC oversight. He said entrepreneurs must be able to raise capital on-chain without “endless legal uncertainty” and pledged a framework for platforms that integrate trading, lending, and staking under one license. Custody rules will also be updated to allow investors and intermediaries multiple options. — Siamak Masnavi Read more.
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Bullish Shares Rise 5% Ahead of Earnings After Crypto Exchange Secures New York BitLicense

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Shares of Bullish (BLSH) rose 5% to $53.12 on Tuesday after the crypto platform secured a BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services, a crucial regulatory approval that opens the door to offering spot trading and custody services to institutional clients in New York.

With the license, Bullish’s U.S. arm — Bullish US Operations LLC — can now legally serve advanced traders in the financial capital of the U.S., an important step in the company’s push to expand domestically. Until now, Bullish was only regulated in Germany, Hong Kong and Gibraltar. Bullish’s global parent is also CoinDesk’s parent company.

The license comes just a day after Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest significantly increased its exposure to the company. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) acquired 120,609 shares while ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) picked up 40,574 shares, together worth about $8.21 million.

Bullish, which runs a trading platform aimed at institutional investors, will report second-quarter earnings after markets close on Wednesday.

Earlier this week, investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) initiated coverage on the company with a «market perform» rating and a $55 price target. The firm called Bullish “a rare public play” on a crypto exchange built for institutions and noted that its entry into the U.S. could drive growth. KBW sees domestic expansion as a key catalyst.

Bullish debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in August through a direct listing. Its stock surged to $104 on opening day before closing at $68. Since then, shares have fallen 22%, with today’s BitLicense announcement providing a boost.

If Bullish succeeds in expanding its footprint in the U.S., it could emerge as a legitimate competitor to Coinbase, according to brokerage firm Bernstein. The firm said success will depend on the platform’s ability to execute on its U.S. launch plans, currently targeted for 2026, Bernstein said.

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