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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Risks Losing Key Support Zone as Risk Assets Struggle
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Risk assets are trading down as the dollar index and Treasury yields benefit from Friday’s blowout nonfarm payrolls report and the Palisades Fires posing a risk to the insurance sector and some P&C companies.
BTC is down 2%, changing hands in the key support zone of $90,000 and $93,000, with alternative cryptocurrencies posting bigger losses as usual. ETH has dropped to the lowest since Dec. 21 and the risk-off has clouded XRP’s bullish technical outlook (see TA section). Whales likely accumulated XRP over South Korea-based Upbit over the weekend. AI coins is the worst performing sub-sector of the past 24 hours. In traditional markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 point to negative open alongside continued downside volatility in the British pound and emerging market currencies.
The risk-off sentiment, however, didn’t stop Michael Saylor from indicating a potential for another bitcoin purchase as he shared an update on MicroStrategy’s bitcoin purchase tracker. If it would put a dent into the negative market sentiment, is another story. «The firm’s purchase last Monday amounted to approximately $100 million, which had limited market impact, but underscores the firm’s ongoing demand,» Valentin Fournier, analyst at BRN said.
Other things being equal, the risk of BTC losing the support zone appears high as some investment banks believe the Fed rate-cutting cycle is over, with Bank of America suggesting a potential for a rate hike. Per some observers, the consensus is that prices will deflate to $70K, followed by a renewed rally.
Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average of the Coinbase-Binance BTC price differential, which has a knack of marking major price tops, has slipped to the lowest since at least 2019, a sign of weaker stateside demand.
Over the near term, the crypto market is likely to focus on President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20 and the ongoing FTX claim distributions, according to Coinbase Institutional.
What to Watch
Crypto
Jan. 13: Solayer (LAYER) «Season 1» airdrop snapshot for staking participants, liquidity providers, and partner ecosystem users.
Jan. 15: Derive (DRV) to create and distribute new tokens in token generation event.
Jan. 15: Mintlayer version 1.0.0 release. The mainnet upgrade introduces atomic swaps, enabling native BTC cross-chain swaps.
Jan. 16, 3:00 a.m.: Trading for the Sonic token (S) is set to start on Binance, featuring pairs like S/USDT, S/BTC, and S/BNB.
Jan. 17: Primary listing of SOLV, the native token of Solv Protocol.
Macro
Jan. 13, 2:00 p.m.: The U.S. Department of the Treasury releases December 2024’s Monthly Treasury Statement report. Monthly budget deficit Est. $62B vs. Prev. $367B.
Jan. 14, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases December 2024’s PPI data.
PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%.
Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%.
Core PPI YoY Est. 3.7% vs. Prev. 3.4%.
PPI YoY Est. 3.4% vs. Prev. 3%.
Jan. 14, 8:55 a.m.: U.S. Redbook YoY for the week ending on Jan. 11. Prev. 6.8%.
Jan. 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases December 2024’s Consumer Price Index Summary.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.3%.
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%.
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.8% vs. Prev. 2.7%.
Jan. 16, 2:00 a.m.: The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics November 2024’s GDP estimate.
GDP MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.1%.
GDP YoY Prev. 1.3%.
Jan. 16, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ending on Jan. 11. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 214K vs. Prev. 201K.
Jan. 17, 5:00 a.m.: Eurostat releases December 2024’s Eurozone inflation data.
Inflation Rate MoM Final Est. 0.4% vs Prev. -0.3%.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Final Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.7%.
Inflation Rate YoY Final Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 2.2%.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Aave community propose adjusting borrow rate for its GHO stablecoin from 10.50% to 9.00%.
Aavegotchi DAO has an active vote on modifying ETH sell ladder parameters due to «significant underperformance» by ETH.
Jan. 14: Mantra community call with its co-founder
Unlocks
No major unlocks scheduled today.
Jan. 14: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 0.93% of its circulating supply, worth $70.65 million.
Jan. 15: Connex (CONX) to unlock 376% of its circulating supply, worth $84.5 million.
Jan. 18: Ondo (ONDO) to unlock 134% of its circulating supply, worth $2.19 billion.
Token Launches
No major token launches scheduled today.
Jan. 15: Derive (DRV) will launch, with 5% of supply going to sENA stakers.
Jan. 16: Solayer (LAYER) to host token sale followed by five months of points farming.
Jan. 17: Solv Protocol (SOLV) to be listed on Binance.
Conferences:
Day 8 of 14: Starknet, an Ethereum layer 2, is holding its Winter Hackathon (online).
Day 1 of 12: Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025 (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)
Jan. 17: Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025 (Los Angeles)
Jan. 18: BitcoinDay (Naples, Florida)
Jan. 20-24: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland)
Jan. 21: Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025
Jan. 25-26: Catstanbul 2025 (Istanbul). The first community conference for Jupiter, a decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator built on Solana.
Jan 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)
Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)
Feb. 18-20: Consensus Hong Kong
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
AI agent tokens have suffered a deep correction, with ai16z now trading at $1.02, down more than 60% from its record high set on Jan. 2. Virtual Protocol’s native token (VIRTUAL) has slumped a further 16% over the past 24-hours to compound its recent downtrend, it is now trading at $2.40 after surging to $5.04 on Jan. 2.
NFT project Azuki has announced the launch of ANIME, a Japanese cartoon-themed token that will distribute 50.5% of the token’s supply to the Azuki community. Azuki employees and advisors will receive 15.62% of supply bound by a vesting schedule.
Ethena’s ENA token has dropped by 11.4% over the past 24-hours as funding rates for ETH, which Ethena’s business model relies on, is beginning to fall into neutral territory. Ethena still offers a yield of 11% on its stablecoin although it’s unclear how long that rate is sustainable if funding rates continue to fall.
Ether whales have begun offloading ETH at a loss with one trader selling 10,070 ETH for $33 million at a $1 million loss, the wallet still holds $45 million, on-chain data reported by Lookonchain shows.
Derivatives Positioning
Perpetual funding rates for TRX, AVAX, SUI and TON have flipped negative, indicating a bearish shift in positioning.
Front-end risk reversals show a strong bias for BTC and ETH protective put options in line with the risk-off sentiment in markets. Screen traders have bought puts at $92K, $90K and $87K in BTC.
There is notable negative dealer gamma in the range of $90K and $93K, which means these entities might trade in the market’s direction to hedge book, bolstering the move. A similar dynamic exists between $3.2K and $3,450. in the ETH market.
BTC and ETH DVOLs, measuring 30-day expected price swings, remain in the familiar ranges for the month.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 3.12% from 4 p.m. ET Friday to $91,392.04 (24hrs: -2.67%)
ETH is down 4.78% at $3,109.45 (24hrs: -4.05%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 2.15% to 3,310.23 (24hrs: -3.08%)
Ether staking yield is down 16 bps to 2.97%
BTC funding rate is at -0.0149% (-16.27% annualized) on Binance
DXY is up 0.35% at 110.04
Gold is down 0.13% at $2,705.00/oz
Silver is down 0.84% to $30.83/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -1.05% at 39,190.40
Hang Seng closed -1% at 18,874.14
FTSE is down 0.25% at 82,27.71
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.92% at 4,931.47
DJIA closed on Friday -1.63% to 41,938.45
S&P 500 closed -1.54% at 5,827.04
Nasdaq closed -1.63% at 19,161.63
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -1.22% at 24,767.70
S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.31% at 2,181.96
U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 2 bps at 4.79%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.78% to 5,820.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.18% to 20,767.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.48% at 42,022.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 58.39
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.033
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 775 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $54.6
Total Fees: 4.89 BTC/ $462,582
CME Futures Open Interest: 175,380 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 34.5 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 9.82%
Technical Analysis
XRP broke out of a descending triangle pattern Friday, signaling a resumption of the broader uptrend from early November lows.
However, BTC’s macro-led risk-off action has pushed XRP back to the breakout point.
Watch out for a potential move back inside the triangle, as failed breakouts are powerful bearish reversal signals.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $327.91 (-1.14%), down 4.95% at $311.67 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $258.78 (-0.47%), down 4.42% at $247.34 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.07 (+0.82%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.86 (-2.62%), down 4.59% at $17.04 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.00 (-0.17%), down 5.25% at $11.37 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed unchanged at $14.04, down 3.49% at $13.55 in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed unchanged at $10.09, down 5.05% at $9.58 in pre-market
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $23.11 (-0.17%), down 4.41% at $22.09 in pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $51.36 (+2.33%), down 7.03% at $47.75 in pre-market.
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed unchanged at $37.77, down 9.98% at $34.00 in pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: $-149.4 million
Cumulative net flows: $36.22 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.137 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: $-68.5 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.45 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.582 million.
Source: Farside Investors, as of Jan. 10.
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The number of Bitcoin Runes minted daily has slipped to a record lows, averaging less than 10% of last year’s figures.
Runes was a big hit among traders following the Bitcoin blockchain’s reward halving in April last year.
Runes is similar to Ordinals, allows people to “etch” and mint tokens on-chain.
While You Were Sleeping
Bitcoin Under Pressure as Goldman Trims Fed Rate Cut Expectations, BofA Sees Potential Hike After Blowout Jobs Report (CoinDesk): Bitcoin fell below $93K during Monday’s European trading hours as strong U.S. jobs data spurred investment banks to revise Fed rate cut expectations, with some warning of potential hikes.
Singapore Blocks Polymarket, Following Taiwan and France (CoinDesk): Over the weekend, Singapore blocked access to Polymarket, labeling it an unlicensed gambling site. This follows similar actions in Taiwan and France, as global scrutiny of the platform grows.
AI Agent Tokens Reel From a Steep Market Correction (The Block): AI agent tokens plunged over the past week, with AI16Z going from $2.26 to $1.10 and GOAT falling from $0.5 to $0.33, while bitcoin held steady around the $95,000 level.
Global Bond Tantrum Is a Wrenching and Worrisome Start to New Year (Bloomberg): U.S. Treasury yields are nearing 5%, driven by strong economic growth, persistent inflation, and rising government debt, raising global borrowing costs and reducing demand for riskier investments like stocks.
Dollar Hits 2-Year High After Robust US Data Pares Back Bets on Rate Cuts (Financial Times): On Monday, the U.S. dollar index hit a two-year high following Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report. Oil prices rose, with Brent reaching $81 and WTI hitting $77.90, on new Russian sanctions.
ECB Seeking Middle Ground With Rate Cuts, Lane Tells Newspaper (Reuters): The European Central Bank (ECB) plans cautious monetary easing, striving to curb inflation without triggering recession, as wage growth moderates and inflation approaches its 2% target by mid-2025.
In the Ether
Crypto staking, under certain circumstances, does not appear to implicate U.S. securities law, a branch of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said late Thursday.
The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance published a staff statement — the latest in a series from the regulator — spelling out how the regulator may evaluate proof-of-stake networks, mainly noting that covered activities do not «involve the offer and sale of securities» — meaning the SEC won’t sue any person or company participating in those activities.
Node operators and validators, custodians, delegates, nominators and entities staking assets either on their own, staking directly with a third party or staking on behalf of an asset’s owners fall into this bucket, the staff statement said. In this, the SEC seems to suggest that staking will be treated identically to mining, the consensus mechanism securing networks like Bitcoin BTC, which the SEC clarified also did not implicate securities laws in a similar staff statement last month.
The SEC’s staff statement was «very clear for a subject that can be a little bit complicated,» said Lorien Gabel, the CEO of staking-focused crypto firm Figment. And its main upside appears to be saying that various activities U.S. companies might have shied away from in the past are okay now.
«They included some ancillary staking activities. For example, we provide insurance around slashing [and we also provide] modified unbonding periods,» he said. «And they said that actually doesn’t mean that you’re a manager of assets as a staking provider.»
The SEC statement said companies that want to provide those types of services, or even pooled staking, can do so, he said.
Thursday’s statement is an incremental but important update from the regulator, said Alison Mangiero, the head of staking policy at the Crypto Council for Innovation.
«This reaffirms that there’s going to be similar treatment for stakers that there is for miners. And I think it’s especially important because, given under [former SEC Chair Gary] Gensler, there were so many enforcement actions that were focused on staking as a service … we saw a lot of those cases dismissed, and the Coinbase case dismissed with prejudice,» she said. «We assumed that this would be the stance, but actually having a staff statement that asserts it, I think is crucially important.»
The fact it came just days before the SEC faces a deadline on a number of applications to bring staking into spot ether ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is telling, she said.
It’s likely that the ETF providers would have received staking approvals regardless, but the SEC statement will likely start speeding up the process for securing those approvals, Gabel said.
As with the SEC’s previous staff statements, Thursday’s included a footnote clarifying that it is very narrowly tailored and certain restrictions would apply. It is not a replacement for rulemaking done through the actual commissioners and «has no legal force or effect,» the footnote said.
«This statement only addresses certain activities involving Covered Crypto Assets that do not have intrinsic economic properties or rights, such as generating a passive yield or conveying rights to future income, profits, or assets of a business enterprise,» another footnote said.
Fastex, a Dubai-based crypto exchange, is expanding its presence in the U.S., building out an office in Los Angeles, California.
According to a Thursday announcement, Fastex will offer spot crypto trading services of tokens including bitcoin BTC, ether ETH, Cardano ADA, Solana SOL and its native utility token, Fasttoken FTN, to both retail and institutional investors in the U.S.
Fastex’s American expansion comes as the U.S. continues to overhaul its approach to crypto regulation under President Donald Trump’s administration. Since Trump took office in January, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has retreated from the so-called regulation-by-enforcement approach to crypto it took under former Chair Gary Gensler, dropping a host of open investigations and closing ongoing litigation against crypto exchanges.
In an interview with CoinDesk at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas, Fastex’s Chief Legal Officer and board member Vardan Khachatryan said that the SEC’s softened stance toward crypto regulation played a major role in the exchange’s decision to expand in the U.S., though he acknowledged that there is still no concrete legal framework for crypto in the country.
“There has been enough of a policy change, at least in terms of [how the U.S. government is] viewing things, that allowed us to go for this,” Khachatryan said. “It’s still kind of a risk, but it’s a lower risk.”
With a host of crypto companies returning to the U.S. due to the Trump Administration’s crypto-friendly policies, cities like New York are hoping to attract companies expanding to the U.S. to set up shop in their jurisdictions.
But, while Khachatryan said New York would be “the right place to be in terms of headquarters,” he said that, for now, the prospect of obtaining a BitLicense — the notoriously difficult-to-obtain crypto license issued by the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) — is prohibitive.
“I hope that things will change a bit,” Khachatryan said.
New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who has branded himself the “Bitcoin Mayor” in an attempt to lure crypto companies to New York, called for the end to the BitLicense regime during a speech at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas on Wednesday.
Read more: NYC Mayor Eric Adams Calls for End of the NYDFS BitLicense, Proposes BitBond
Fastex is currently headquartered in Dubai, in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). Khachatryan said the exchange is currently working on obtaining a license from Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA).
After expanding in the U.S., Khachatryan said the exchange also has its eyes on a Latin American expansion, starting with Brazil, followed by Argentina and Mexico.
LAS VEGAS, Nevada — Strategy (MSTR) Chair Michael Saylor waxed poetic about bitcoin in a keynote speech at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas on Thursday, laying out his guiding principles — his so-called “21 ways to wealth” — for a jam-packed audience of fans and conference-goers.
“Satoshi started a fire in cyberspace, and while the fearful run from it and fools dance around it, the faithful feed the flame, dreaming of a better world, and bathe in the warm glow of cyberlight,” Saylor said. “What does that mean? It means that a lot of people that look at Bitcoin are going to be afraid of it. They’ll never touch it. They’ll never benefit from it. They’ll be left behind. Then others will just juggle it. They will juggle the fire. They will make fireworks with the fire. They will create trinkets with the fire. They will create magic tricks with the fire. But those that truly understand it will feed the fire. How do you feed the fire? You feed the fire by buying Bitcoin. “
Saylor — who has taken on a near-mythic status in the bitcoin community for his leadership of Strategy, a publicly-traded technology company-turned-bitcoin treasury company, which holds approximately 3% of the total bitcoin supply — said that people should trade their other, inferior assets for bitcoin.
“Take your fiat currency, trade it for bitcoin. Take your long term capital, trade it for bitcoin. Sell your bonds, trade [them] for Bitcoin. Sell your inferior equity, sell your inferior real estate property, buy bitcoin,” Saylor said. “Feed the fire, and what will come of that? An extraordinary explosion in the network and [in] the power of the network, and you will have bought your ticket to prosperity.”
Thus was Saylor’s third way to wealth — courage — which he said meant that wealth “favors those who embrace intelligent monetary risk.”
Bitcoin, like other assets, rises in price if more people buy it, though Saylor did not mention this effect during his speech.
In addition to courage, Saylor advised the audience to have conviction in bitcoin’s potential, to stay committed to one cause, to cooperate with their families and children, to embrace artificial intelligence, to consider civility when engaging with the “natural power structures of the world,” and to remember to be generous.
“When you are successful — and you will be successful — get up every morning and spread happiness, share security, and deliver hope to those less fortunate than you,” Saylor said. “You found the path first, you found the way first. You should spread good karma.”
Crypto Staking Doesn’t Violate U.S. Securities Law, SEC Says
Fastex Expands U.S. Presence With Los Angeles Office
Strategy Chair Michael Saylor Shares ‘21 Ways to Wealth’ in Vegas Keynote
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