Uncategorized
Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Resilient as Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Sets Markets on Edge
By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
President Trump’s so-called Liberation Day has arrived, and markets are nervously awaiting developments on U.S. tariffs. Even within the administration, the mood appears far from optimistic.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik is reportedly in the crosshairs, with suggestions he may become the scapegoat for favoring overly aggressive tariffs if the U.S. were to head into a recession, according to The Independent, a U.K. online newspaper.
A recession looks likely according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which is projecting a first-quarter contraction of -3.7% for U.S. real GDP. That is a dramatic downward revision from earlier estimates: +3.9% two months ago, +2.3% one month ago and -1.8% just two weeks ago.
While Trump has yet to disclose which country the tariffs will target, an announcement is scheduled for after the stock market closes at 4 p.m.
Bitcoin (BTC), meanwhile, remains unfazed, trading little changed on the day and holding above $85,000. U.S. equities finished higher on Tuesday, although futures are pointing slightly negative heading into Wednesday.
Currently, bitcoin is 25% below its Jan. 20 all-time high of $109,000. This places it in the middle of the performance range of the «Magnificent 7» tech stocks. Here’s how they compare to their respective all-time highs: Apple is down 17%, Microsoft 22%, Amazon 24%, Meta 25%, Google 26%, NVIDIA 32% and Tesla 50%.
The cryptocurrency’s resilience stands out when compared to past cycles. In 2022, BTC fell 75% from its peak to a low of $15,500, more than twice as much as the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)’s 34%. This year, bitcoin has dropped 30% versus 16% for QQQ — a relative drawdown of 1.87 times. This relative performance suggests bitcoin has become more resilient over time, even as volatility remains a defining trait.
Still, a lot hinges on the tariff announcement and how markets react. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
April 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing for marking up various measures, including H.R. 2392, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025, and H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Livestream link.
April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) will have its mainnet launch.
April 5: The alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
April 9, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing about how the U.S. securities laws could be updated to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.
Macro
April 2, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases February industrial production data.
Industrial Production MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0%
Industrial Production YoY Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 1.4%
April 2, 4:00 p.m.: Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs will get announced.
April 2, 4:30 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech titled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking.” Livestream link.
April 3, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts announced March 26 become effective.
April 3, 12:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech titled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications.” Livestream link.
April 4, 11:25 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech titled “Economic Outlook.” Livestream link.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
No earnings scheduled.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Yearn DAO is discussing a revised proposal to endorse and fund “Bearn,” a new sub-DAO for building DeFi products including a yield-backed stablecoin and a BGT liquid locker. The proposal seeks $200,000 for audit costs and $1 million in locked liquidity, offering 5% of BEARN tokens to the Yearn Treasury in return.
Lido DAO is discussing the re-endorsement of wstETH on Starknet as the canonical bridge endpoint following a completed migration from the legacy token.
April 2, 11 p.m.: Axie Infinity to host Atia’s Legacy Town Hall on the project co-founders’ vision for the forthcoming massive multiplayer online game.
April 2, 10 a.m.: The Graph to host a token API talk.
April 3, 9 a.m.: SafePal, Wallet Connect and Trader to host a monthly community livestream discussing monthly updates for the projects.
April 3, 2p.m.: Arbitrum to host an X Spaces session on real-world assets on Arbitrum.
April 3, 12 p.m.: Seamless Protocol, Morpho Labs and Gauntlet to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
April 7, 4 p.m.: Livepeer to host a monthly community call focused on governance, funding and the strategic direction of its on-chain treasury.
Unlocks
April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $104.38 million.
April 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 3.25% of its circulating supply worth $61.86 million.
April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $10.29 million.
April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $20.10 million.
April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $59.94 million.
Token Listings
April 4: Pintu (PTU), Spartan Protocol (SPARTA), Derby Stars (DSRUN), Veloce (VEXT), BOB, and Kryptonite (SEILOR) to be deslisted from Bybit.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 1 of 2: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference (Bangkok)
Day 1 of 4: ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon (Romania)
April 3-6: BitBlockBoom (Dallas)
April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival
April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week
April 10: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Nashville)
April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
President Donald Trump’s TRUMP memecoin is set to unlock 40 million tokens — or 20% of the circulating supply — on April 17, according to Solana Floor.
Token unlocks often lead to short-term price drops due to increased supply, as seen with other cryptocurrencies such as Aptos (APT), which fell 26% in 30 days after a June 2024 unlock.
A similar pattern could emerge for TRUMP, which is currently priced just above $10.
Memecoins can see higher selling pressure than utility projects because they rely heavily on sentiment, in this case to Trump’s political brand.
However, if the president’s political influence continues to drive hype — potentially amplified by developments like Trump Media ETFs — the token might see buying activity after the unlock.
That means investors looking to bet on TRUMP are likely to keep an eye on his public comments and statements about the memecoin specifically around the unlock date.
Derivatives Positioning
Market stability failed to inspire bullish positioning, leaving perpetual funding rates for major tokens, including BTC and ETH, barely positive near annualized rates of 1% to 3%.
Most major coins are exhibiting negative cumulative volume deltas, a sign of net selling pressure, casting a doubt on how long the market stability can last.
In Deribit’s options market, BTC volatility smiles have shifted sharply toward lower strike put options, reaching levels not seen since the U.S. regional banking crisis of March 2023, according to data tracked by Block Scholes.
Ether options are also exhibiting put skews.
Market Movements
BTC is down 0.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $85,063.12 (24hrs: +1.19%)
ETH is down 1.75% at $1,879.84 (24hrs: +0.48%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.56% at 2,559.88 (24hrs: -0.07%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 3.1%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0027% (2.9685% annualized) on Binance
DXY is down 0.13% at 104.12
Gold is up 1.4% at $3,162.70/oz
Silver is up 1.79% at $34.77/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +0.28% at 35,725.87
Hang Seng closed unchanged at 23,202.53
FTSE is down 0.57% at 8,585.55
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.47% at 5,295.55
DJIA closed on Tuesday unchanged at 41,989.96
S&P 500 closed +0.38% at 5,633.07
Nasdaq closed +0.87% at 17,449.89
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.46% at 25,033.30
S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.44% at 2,440.93
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.16%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% at 5,657.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.37% at 19,531.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.24% at 42,138.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 62.68 (0.21%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02211 (-1.16%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 819 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $47.62
Total Fees: 4.35 BTC / $366,246
CME Futures Open Interest: 135,350 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 27.0 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.66%
Technical Analysis
The chart shows the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding market leaders bitcoin and ether.
The value is holding on to a bullish trendline sloping upward from August and November lows.
A strong bounce from the trendline would signal a resumption of the broader rally.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $306.02 (+6.16%), down 1.31% at $302in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $174.52 (1.33%), down 0.88% at $172.99
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$16.33 (+7.65%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.84 (+2.96%), down 1.01% at $11.72
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.54 (+5.9%), down 1.33% at $7.44
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8 (+10.5%), down 0.63% at $7.95
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.56 (+12.5%), down 1.46% at $7.45
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $13.67 (+7.05%), down 2.51% at $12.80
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.52 (+0.88%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.63 (-0.24%), up 2.98% at $46.99
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$157.8 million
Cumulative net flows: $36.11 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$3.6 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.41 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The chart shows technology stocks have fallen out of favor over the past four weeks.
That helps explain the weakness in the crypto market.
While You Were Sleeping
Bitcoin Slides 1% as Goldman Picks Yen Over BTC Amid Tariff Fears (CoinDesk): The bitcoin-yen trading pair slipped after hitting key trendline resistance as Goldman Sachs named the Japanese currency a top hedge against growing U.S. tariff and recession risks.
U.S. Reaffirms Commitment to Taiwan as Beijing Conducts Live Fire Drills in East China Sea (CNBC): On day two of its drills, China’s military simulated precision strikes on port and energy targets under an exercise called “Strait Thunder-2025 A,” according to a senior officer.
Bitcoin May Have Hit Bottom After Its 30% Fall From All-Time High (CoinDesk): Bitcoin may see bullish momentum if history repeats, echoing patterns from the U.S. spot ETF launch and August’s yen carry trade unwind.
SEC, Gemini Request Two-Month Pause in Lawsuit as ‘Potential Resolution’ in the Works (CoinDesk): The two asked a New York court to pause the lawsuit over Gemini’s Earn product as they explore a possible resolution after prolonged legal proceedings.
U.S. Officials Object to European Push to Buy Weapons Locally (Reuters): In a closed-door meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly told Baltic officials that Washington would view U.S. defense firms’ exclusion from European contracts unfavorably.
In the Ether
The Bitcoin Development Mailing List, a key communication platform for developers of the original blockchain, was briefly offline on Wednesday after an apparent bot attack.
Google flagged the publicly viewable group as containing “spam, malware, or other malicious content.” Users accessing the group received a “permanently removed” message while the issue was being sorted out.
The active group is used to discuss Bitcoin proposals, relay development messages, and flag and solve any issues across the Bitcoin ecosystem. It moved to Google in February 2024. Its previous hosts were the Linux Foundation, Oregon State University Open Source Lab’s infrastructure and SourceForge.net.
“Apparently we’re «permanently removed». Our transgression? We’re «unwanted content,” developer Ruben Somsen posted on X. “Really Google? Open source development is «unwanted»?”
Google’s Workspace Support resolved the issue early Thursday, according to an X post. It did not provide a clear reason for the removal.
Reports suggested the takedown could have been due to a bot attack, where a malicious actor performs an extremely high number of tasks (such as clicks or visits) to disable a service and create havoc within a specific environment.
The intrusion comes as the bitcoin (BTC) price grapples with high volatility amid a shaky macroeconomic environment, stemming from a slew of U.S. tariffs announced Wednesday.
Bitcoin blockchain’s hashrate is surging, revealing a growing dislocation between the network activity and prices for its native token bitcoin (BTC).
On a 14-day moving average, the hashrate, representing the computational power required to mine a block on the proof-of-work Bitcoin blockchain, recently reached an all-time high of 838 exahashes per second (EH/s), and on a 24-hour time frame, it spiked to 974 EH/s, the second highest level ever, according to Glassnode data.
Measuring over a 24-hour window can be misleading due to block time variability, so longer timeframes give more reliable insights. In two days, Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment — which recalibrates every 2016 blocks to maintain a 10-minute block interval — is expected to increase by over 3%, reaching a new peak.
This divergence between hash rate and price is notable. While bitcoin remains about 25% below its all-time high, mining costs continue to rise. For miners to stay profitable and cover operational expenses and capital expenditures, a strong bitcoin price, full blocks and high transaction fees are essential.
Currently, miners earn revenue through two channels: block rewards (3.125 BTC per block in the current epoch) and transaction fees. However, transaction fees are extremely low — averaging around 4 BTC per day, or roughly $377,634. As bitcoin’s block subsidy continues to halve every four years, sustained or increasing transaction activity will be critical to maintaining mining incentives.
Near empty blocks
Developer Mononaut, from Mempool, recently noted that Foundry USA Pool mined the emptiest «non-empty» block in over two years, containing just seven transactions — a rarity only surpassed by a block with four transactions back in January 2023.
In other words, while the rising hashrate paints a picture of a booming network, the near-empty blocks make it the case of a powerful train speeding down the tracks but without passengers.
That’s a cause for concern for Nicolas Gregory, creator of the Mercury Layer and a former Nasdaq Board Director.
“Half-empty bitcoin blocks tell a tale — hawking the store-of-value line could scupper its future,» Gregory said on X.
«I hope bitcoiners realize this space is more than just podcasts, spaces, and the ‘number go up’ digital gold narrative. If we don’t get people using bitcoin for real commerce, it’s game over,» Gregory added.
Uncategorized
Justin Sun Calls for Reform of Hong Kong’s Trust Laws After TUSD Misappropriation Allegations
HONG KONG—It was a battle of stablecoin issuers Thursday afternoon in Hong Kong, with Justin Sun, the founder of the Tron blockchain, and First Digital Trust (FDT), a Hong Kong-based fiduciary, holding press conferences over allegations of fund misappropriation involving Techteryx’s TrueUSD reserves.
Sun doubled down on claims that TrueUSD’s reserves were «misappropriated by a few bad actors,» leading to him needing to quietly bail out the stablecoin.
Sun pointed a finger at the Hong Kong regulatory framework surrounding trusts, arguing at the press conference that loopholes and loose rules allowed the alleged misappropriation to occur.
«This situation highlights a serious challenge to the integrity of the financial system that must be addressed,» he said. «I found it hard to believe the scale of fraud orchestrated by a long list of licensed intermediaries.»
Sun even said that for the time being, Hong Kong trust companies should be avoided entirely, and urged regulators to take decisive action to safeguard the city’s global financial reputation.
For that case, Sun might have an ally in the shape of Hong Kong lawmaker Johnny Ng — called the city’s Web3 politician. He released a statement saying that he’s aware of multiple reports this year of alleged fraud exploiting trust companies, and acknowledged that local regulation needs to be improved.
First Digital Trust denies all allegations
After Sun’s press conference, First Digital Trust held its own event on X, with CEO Vincent Chok saying Sun had yet to produce «one solid piece of evidence» to back up his claims.
FDT followed its fiduciary duties, acted in clients’ best interests, complied with instructions from Sun and his nominees, which were signed off by Techteryx directors, and noted that the company is subject to third-party audits, Chok said.
Chok, however, acknowledged he was previously unaware of the familial connection between Aria CFF and Aria DMCC — the funds where TUSD’s reserves are held up.
In a complaint to the Department of Justice, Techteryx noted that Aria CFF, the fund it said is authorized to hold TrueUSD’s reserves is managed by Matthew Brittain. Aria DMCC, which Techteryx said is unauthorized, is controlled by his spouse, Cecilia Brittain.
Chok said FDT is working to recover funds, but know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) issues involving the ultimate beneficial owner of Techteryx are apparently holding things up.
He also rejected Sun’s claims in a post on X that First Digital Trust is unable to fulfill redemption obligations of its FDUSD stablecoin. The token is still very much solvent, Chok said.
FDT said it plans to pursue legal action over Sun’s claims.
Earlier, the company posted examples of on-chain data showing redemptions going through.
Bitcoin Development Mailing List Briefly Goes Offline After ‘Malicious’ Warning
Bitcoin’s Hash Rate Hits Record High, Yet Price and Activity Tell Another Story
Justin Sun Calls for Reform of Hong Kong’s Trust Laws After TUSD Misappropriation Allegations
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