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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Resilient as Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Sets Markets on Edge

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By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

President Trump’s so-called Liberation Day has arrived, and markets are nervously awaiting developments on U.S. tariffs. Even within the administration, the mood appears far from optimistic.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik is reportedly in the crosshairs, with suggestions he may become the scapegoat for favoring overly aggressive tariffs if the U.S. were to head into a recession, according to The Independent, a U.K. online newspaper.

A recession looks likely according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which is projecting a first-quarter contraction of -3.7% for U.S. real GDP. That is a dramatic downward revision from earlier estimates: +3.9% two months ago, +2.3% one month ago and -1.8% just two weeks ago.

While Trump has yet to disclose which country the tariffs will target, an announcement is scheduled for after the stock market closes at 4 p.m.

Bitcoin (BTC), meanwhile, remains unfazed, trading little changed on the day and holding above $85,000. U.S. equities finished higher on Tuesday, although futures are pointing slightly negative heading into Wednesday.

Currently, bitcoin is 25% below its Jan. 20 all-time high of $109,000. This places it in the middle of the performance range of the «Magnificent 7» tech stocks. Here’s how they compare to their respective all-time highs: Apple is down 17%, Microsoft 22%, Amazon 24%, Meta 25%, Google 26%, NVIDIA 32% and Tesla 50%.

The cryptocurrency’s resilience stands out when compared to past cycles. In 2022, BTC fell 75% from its peak to a low of $15,500, more than twice as much as the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)’s 34%. This year, bitcoin has dropped 30% versus 16% for QQQ — a relative drawdown of 1.87 times. This relative performance suggests bitcoin has become more resilient over time, even as volatility remains a defining trait.

Still, a lot hinges on the tariff announcement and how markets react. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

April 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing for marking up various measures, including H.R. 2392, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025, and H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Livestream link.

April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) will have its mainnet launch.

April 5: The alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.

April 9, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing about how the U.S. securities laws could be updated to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.

Macro

April 2, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases February industrial production data.

Industrial Production MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0%

Industrial Production YoY Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 1.4%

April 2, 4:00 p.m.: Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs will get announced.

April 2, 4:30 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech titled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking.” Livestream link.

April 3, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts announced March 26 become effective.

April 3, 12:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech titled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications.” Livestream link.

April 4, 11:25 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech titled “Economic Outlook.” Livestream link.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

No earnings scheduled.

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Yearn DAO is discussing a revised proposal to endorse and fund “Bearn,” a new sub-DAO for building DeFi products including a yield-backed stablecoin and a BGT liquid locker. The proposal seeks $200,000 for audit costs and $1 million in locked liquidity, offering 5% of BEARN tokens to the Yearn Treasury in return.

Lido DAO is discussing the re-endorsement of wstETH on Starknet as the canonical bridge endpoint following a completed migration from the legacy token.

April 2, 11 p.m.: Axie Infinity to host Atia’s Legacy Town Hall on the project co-founders’ vision for the forthcoming massive multiplayer online game.

April 2, 10 a.m.: The Graph to host a token API talk.

April 3, 9 a.m.: SafePal, Wallet Connect and Trader to host a monthly community livestream discussing monthly updates for the projects.

April 3, 2p.m.: Arbitrum to host an X Spaces session on real-world assets on Arbitrum.

April 3, 12 p.m.: Seamless Protocol, Morpho Labs and Gauntlet to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.

April 7, 4 p.m.: Livepeer to host a monthly community call focused on governance, funding and the strategic direction of its on-chain treasury.

Unlocks

April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $104.38 million.

April 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 3.25% of its circulating supply worth $61.86 million.

April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $10.29 million.

April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $20.10 million.

April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $59.94 million.

Token Listings

April 4: Pintu (PTU), Spartan Protocol (SPARTA), Derby Stars (DSRUN), Veloce (VEXT), BOB, and Kryptonite (SEILOR) to be deslisted from Bybit.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Day 1 of 2: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference (Bangkok)

Day 1 of 4: ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon (Romania)

April 3-6: BitBlockBoom (Dallas)

April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival

April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week

April 10: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Nashville)

April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

President Donald Trump’s TRUMP memecoin is set to unlock 40 million tokens — or 20% of the circulating supply — on April 17, according to Solana Floor.

Token unlocks often lead to short-term price drops due to increased supply, as seen with other cryptocurrencies such as Aptos (APT), which fell 26% in 30 days after a June 2024 unlock.

A similar pattern could emerge for TRUMP, which is currently priced just above $10.

Memecoins can see higher selling pressure than utility projects because they rely heavily on sentiment, in this case to Trump’s political brand.

However, if the president’s political influence continues to drive hype — potentially amplified by developments like Trump Media ETFs — the token might see buying activity after the unlock.

That means investors looking to bet on TRUMP are likely to keep an eye on his public comments and statements about the memecoin specifically around the unlock date.

Derivatives Positioning

Market stability failed to inspire bullish positioning, leaving perpetual funding rates for major tokens, including BTC and ETH, barely positive near annualized rates of 1% to 3%.

Most major coins are exhibiting negative cumulative volume deltas, a sign of net selling pressure, casting a doubt on how long the market stability can last.

In Deribit’s options market, BTC volatility smiles have shifted sharply toward lower strike put options, reaching levels not seen since the U.S. regional banking crisis of March 2023, according to data tracked by Block Scholes.

Ether options are also exhibiting put skews.

Market Movements

BTC is down 0.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $85,063.12 (24hrs: +1.19%)

ETH is down 1.75% at $1,879.84 (24hrs: +0.48%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 0.56% at 2,559.88 (24hrs: -0.07%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 3.1%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0027% (2.9685% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.13% at 104.12

Gold is up 1.4% at $3,162.70/oz

Silver is up 1.79% at $34.77/oz

Nikkei 225 closed +0.28% at 35,725.87

Hang Seng closed unchanged at 23,202.53

FTSE is down 0.57% at 8,585.55

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.47% at 5,295.55

DJIA closed on Tuesday unchanged at 41,989.96

S&P 500 closed +0.38% at 5,633.07

Nasdaq closed +0.87% at 17,449.89

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.46% at 25,033.30

S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.44% at 2,440.93

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.16%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% at 5,657.50

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.37% at 19,531.50

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.24% at 42,138.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 62.68 (0.21%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02211 (-1.16%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 819 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $47.62

Total Fees: 4.35 BTC / $366,246

CME Futures Open Interest: 135,350 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 27.0 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 7.66%

Technical Analysis

The chart shows the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding market leaders bitcoin and ether.

The value is holding on to a bullish trendline sloping upward from August and November lows.

A strong bounce from the trendline would signal a resumption of the broader rally.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $306.02 (+6.16%), down 1.31% at $302in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $174.52 (1.33%), down 0.88% at $172.99

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$16.33 (+7.65%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.84 (+2.96%), down 1.01% at $11.72

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.54 (+5.9%), down 1.33% at $7.44

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8 (+10.5%), down 0.63% at $7.95

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.56 (+12.5%), down 1.46% at $7.45

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $13.67 (+7.05%), down 2.51% at $12.80

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.52 (+0.88%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.63 (-0.24%), up 2.98% at $46.99

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: -$157.8 million

Cumulative net flows: $36.11 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$3.6 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.41 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

The chart shows technology stocks have fallen out of favor over the past four weeks.

That helps explain the weakness in the crypto market.

While You Were Sleeping

Bitcoin Slides 1% as Goldman Picks Yen Over BTC Amid Tariff Fears (CoinDesk): The bitcoin-yen trading pair slipped after hitting key trendline resistance as Goldman Sachs named the Japanese currency a top hedge against growing U.S. tariff and recession risks.

U.S. Reaffirms Commitment to Taiwan as Beijing Conducts Live Fire Drills in East China Sea (CNBC): On day two of its drills, China’s military simulated precision strikes on port and energy targets under an exercise called “Strait Thunder-2025 A,” according to a senior officer.

Bitcoin May Have Hit Bottom After Its 30% Fall From All-Time High (CoinDesk): Bitcoin may see bullish momentum if history repeats, echoing patterns from the U.S. spot ETF launch and August’s yen carry trade unwind.

SEC, Gemini Request Two-Month Pause in Lawsuit as ‘Potential Resolution’ in the Works (CoinDesk): The two asked a New York court to pause the lawsuit over Gemini’s Earn product as they explore a possible resolution after prolonged legal proceedings.

U.S. Officials Object to European Push to Buy Weapons Locally (Reuters): In a closed-door meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly told Baltic officials that Washington would view U.S. defense firms’ exclusion from European contracts unfavorably.

In the Ether

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Bitcoin Is the Asset, Ethereum Is the Platform

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Blockchains are a technical marvel, but in this vastly competitive landscape, I’ve come to see the social consensus and ecosystem around blockchains as by far their most important strategic asset. The social layer matters, but for different reasons depending on the chain.

Specifically, I have the hypothesis that the “Layer 0” for any blockchain ecosystem can only excel at one primary mission. When I say “Layer 0,” what I am really talking about are the communities of people that sustain these networks. They are everyone from enthusiasts to engineers, developers, investors, venture capitalists and volunteers. As public networks that are built with open-source code, the strength of each ecosystem is primarily the community around it.

Despite their superficial similarities, the communities and the ecosystems that underpin bitcoin and Ethereum are radically different. I have long said that “bitcoin is the asset. Ethereum is the platform.” In both cases, the social consensus around these blockchains is what keeps them together and makes each one ideally suited for its mission.

Bitcoin first. Bitcoin is a scarcity-based store-of-value. Better than fiat currency. More reliably scarce than gold. Immune to politics and protected by a vast proof of work infrastructure. Bitcoin is in a constant battle for mindshare with other crypto-assets and, even more so, against traditional fiat currencies and central-bank-issued assets.

This is not the same as other stores-of-value. There can be many kinds of government and corporate debt, and their values are all tied to the likelihood of repayment. The closest analogy for bitcoin is with gold, which does not pay interest or generate any cash flow. Nor is there any meaningful industrial demand for gold. The value of gold is simply that it is scarce and getting more of it is not easy.

One particularly important feature of this crypto ecosystem is that it is a zero-sum game. If you admit that there can be more than one cryptocurrency used as a store of value, you are on a slippery slope because technically, there can be an infinite supply of identical copies of bitcoin. If there can be two, there can be a thousand. If that happens, the value of bitcoin is uncertain and likely low.

Right now, there are no other cryptocurrencies that have a value even remotely close to that of bitcoin. Assets like litecoin, bitcoin cash, dogecoin and others represent a tiny fraction of bitcoin’s market capitalization. The only asset in the same general league is ether, and I would argue that it should be seen less as a cryptocurrency and more as a stake in a computing ecosystem.

The result of this logic is a uniquely aggressive approach to mindshare. The value of bitcoin must be sustained by constant memetic warfare against other cryptocurrencies. Scroll through r/bitcoin, and you will find a stream of memes that aim to reinforce the value of bitcoin. Typical content includes dire warnings about the U.S. dollar’s debasement with quantitative easing, the serious U.S. federal debt, the horrors of inflation, and rapturous predictions for future prices. That quantitative easing did not cause inflation and that low to moderate inflations inflict no measurable economic harm does not matter in that context: Political harm, yes, economic harm no. (See here and here)

A typical bitcoin meme includes a reminder that a long, long time ago, a dollar would buy you a full bag of groceries. The implication is that you are being robbed through gradual printing of money. This meme has never stood up to the most basic examination. Moderate inflation is fine, necessary, and infinitely better than deflation. We are vastly better off than we were when a dollar could buy a bag or groceries, but acknowledging that would undermine the narrative. It does not matter, however. Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.

To sustain its value, bitcoin needs a very assertive social consensus. And that has to continue for an exceedingly long time. Gold’s use as a shared global store of value dates to 650 BCE in ancient Türkiye, so they have a significant head start. And while there are other precious metals, none of them have ever approached gold in terms of total market capitalization. The market cap of gold is 10 times larger than the market cap for silver.

The social ecosystem that underpins Ethereum is different. First and foremost, Ethereum is the world computer. Ethereum is a positive-sum ecosystem where people are encouraged to build and extend. The discussion and tone of r/Ethereum is, again, a good proxy for the whole ecosystem: it is focused on engineering, development, and new applications.

Ethereum, like bitcoin, has an equally passionate Layer Zero ecosystem and is as dominant compared to other “smart contract” blockchains as bitcoin is to other pure crypto-assets. Ethereum’s dominance is visible in the market cap of the asset but also in its share of tokenized assets. Ethereum is the dominant ecosystem for most “real-world” assets and the majority of stablecoins as well. With over 100 Layer 2 networks in operation, Ethereum has 20 times more “network extensions” than any other ecosystem, including bitcoin and Solana.

Both the Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems have ardent believers that see things differently from the dominant narrative. There is a small, but resilient application layer being built upon bitcoin. Bitcoin will soon have its own layer two networks, including some that are EVM- compatible.

Similarly, there is a passionate group of Ethereum believers who think Ethereum should be both the network computer and a scarcity-based asset. EIP-1559 (Ethereum Improvement Proposal), which was adopted in August 2021, reduced the rate at which new ETH was issued and shifted the gas fee model so some ETH is burned with each transaction. The result is that the amount of ETH in circulation is increasing at a slower pace than bitcoin and, in some cases, even decreasing.

Neither of these is necessarily a bad idea and, at least in theory, either ecosystem could be a host to both types of activity. In practice, the cultural requirements of each ecosystem are so different that they cannot really excel at more than one function at a time.

In the real world, currencies like the U.S. dollar are most effective as a means of exchange, but not necessarily as a store of value. You can use dollars to buy things, but a deflationary system that increased the value of the dollar, over time, would be catastrophic for the economy as it forced up real interest rates. As Ben Bernanke discovered, trying to stimulate an economy when inflation is low is very difficult. The same problem makes bitcoin unsuitable as a currency even while it may excel as a store of value.

With Ethereum, we’ll see how well the current blockchain boom plays out over the next few years. If the ecosystem retains its dominant share of new asset tokenization and smart contracts, I think we can declare it a winner on the primary mission. Bitcoin has a longer game to play, but if we see increasing correlation with gold, that may be an indicator that real-world investors are buying into the argument for digital scarcity.

Either way, it could be several more years of real world experience before I can prove (or disprove) my theory. This also means that memetic warfare on Twitter between ecosystems isn’t going away anytime soon.

The views reflected in this article are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the global EY organization or its member firms.

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XRP Futures Start Trading On CME

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XRP futures started trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) derivatives platform on Monday, becoming the first regulated futures tracking the price of XRP in the U.S.

Traders can trade two contract sizes: 2,500 XRP and 50,000 XRP, which will both be cash-settled and based on the SME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate, which tracks the price of XRP daily at 4:00 p.m. London time.

CME already offers bitcoin BTC, ethereum ETH and solana SOL futures as well as bitcoin and ethereum options. The Group’s SOL futures, which launched in mid-March, had only booked $12.3 million in notional daily volume on the first day and closed with $7.8 million in open interest, a much lower number on an adjusted basis compared to the debut of the ether and bitcoin futures.

The price of XRP was down 3.45% over the past 24 hours.

The existence of regulated futures could mark a big step in the right direction as it relates to a spot XRP exchange-traded fund which is currently under review to be approved or denied by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Several U.S. issuers have filed to launch such a fund but have yet to receive a decision.

«CME-traded XRP futures are now *live*,» wrote ETF Store President Nate Geraci on X. «CFTC-regulated contracts on XRP. Spot XRP ETFs only a matter of time.»

The former SEC under Chair Gary Gensler had previously told issuers that one of the reasons it approved the spot bitcoin and ethereum ETFs was that it already had an existing regulated futures market in the U.S.

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Dogecoin Finds Support After Sharp Drop as Bulls Regain Momentum

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Dogecoin’s recent price movement shows a classic battle between bears and bulls, with the meme cryptocurrency finding stability after a significant downtrend.

The coin experienced a 9.7% drop from $0.237 to $0.214 before buyers stepped in at key support levels. This buying pressure has created what analysts describe as a «panic zone retest» around the $0.215 mark, which has so far held firm against selling pressure.

Market structure indicates DOGE is currently navigating a falling wedge pattern, typically considered a bullish reversal formation when broken to the upside.

The Ichimoku cloud on short-term charts shows price lodged in equilibrium territory, with multiple technical indicators converging to create tight reference levels between $0.212 and $0.225.

For traders, the immediate focus remains on whether DOGE can break above the descending trendline resistance near $0.219-$0.220. A decisive move above this level could target the $0.235-$0.244 range, while failure to hold current support might see prices retreat toward $0.20 or even $0.185 in the near term.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • DOGE formed a descending channel with clear resistance at the $0.235 level, where selling pressure consistently emerged.
  • A notable support zone developed around $0.215-$0.217, confirmed by increased volume during the 13:00 hour.
  • V-shaped reversal pattern formed with the bottom at $0.215 around 13:14, followed by steady accumulation.
  • Volume significantly increased to over 10 million units around 13:30, triggering a sharp upward movement.
  • New support zone established at $0.218, with multiple high-volume candles confirming strong buying interest.
  • Overall price action suggests bearish momentum with intermittent consolidation phases.

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