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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Rebounds as DeepSeek Concerns Wane, AI Tokens Regroup
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market is showing signs of stabilizing, with bitcoin recovering to $102,000 and positive signals from futures tied to the Nasdaq. Leading the recovery among major cryptocurrencies is XRP, up 11%, followed by SOL with a 7% increase. AI coins, hit hard on Monday, are posting gains of as much as 4%.
Risk sentiment is likely being supported by skepticism surrounding the claims of Chinese tech startup DeepSeek, which asserts it spent only $6 million to develop its competitor to ChatGPT. Critics speculate the figure omits costs associated with earlier research and experimentation on architectures, algorithms and data. Additionally, a concept rooted in the Jevons Paradox suggests that advancements in efficiency often lead to increased usage rather than reduced consumption, leading to net positive growth in the industry.
That’s good news for bitcoin and the broader crypto industry because they align with the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism, particularly given President Trump’s crypto-friendly stance and plans to establish a strategic digital asset reserve.
Speaking of the strategic reserve, Arizona lawmakers have advanced a bill that would permit government entities or public funds to invest up to 10% of their capital in bitcoin and other digital assets.
The broader outlook remains bullish, with on-chain data pointing to capitulation of weak hands and continued accumulation by large investors.
«According to CryptoQuant data, the share of investors with a balance of at least 1,000 BTC who purchased coins in the last 155 days increased from 43% to 60%, reflecting the emergence of large players amid optimistic sentiment,» said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at the FxPro.
QCP Capital expects this week to test BTC’s correlation with equities, particularly as a favorable regulatory environment offers potential support. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Jan. 28, 1:00 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) network upgrade (v0.57.5).
Jan. 29: Cardano’s Plomin hard fork network upgrade.
Jan. 29: Ice Open Network (ION) mainnet launch.
Feb. 2, 8:00 p.m.: Core blockchain Athena hard fork network upgrade (v1.0.14)
Feb. 4: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Q4, FY 2024 earnings.
Feb. 4: Pepecoin (PEPE) halving. At block 400,000, the reward will drop to 31,250 PEPE.
Feb. 5, 3:00 p.m.: Boba Network’s Holocene hard fork network upgrade for its Ethereum-based L2 mainnet.
Feb. 6, 8:00 a.m.: Shentu Chain network upgrade (v2.14.0).
Feb. 12: Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) Q4 2024 earnings.
Feb. 15: Qtum (QTUM) hard fork network upgrade at block 4,590,000.
Feb. 18 (after market close): Semler Scientific (SMLR) Q4 2024 earnings.
Feb. 20: Coinbase Global (COIN) Q4 2024 earnings.
Macro
Jan. 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases December Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments Inventories and Orders.
MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. -1.1%.
Jan. 28, 1:00 p.m.: The Fed releases December’s H.6 (Money Stock Measures) report.
Money Supply Prev. $21.45T.
Jan. 29, 12:00 a.m.: Japan’s Cabinet Office releases January’s Consumer Confidence Survey.
Est. 36.5 vs. Prev. 36.2.
Jan. 29, 4:00 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) releases Monetary Developments in the Euro Area for December.
M3 Money Supply YoY Est. 3.8% vs. Prev. 3.8%.
Jan. 29, 8:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada (BoC) releases the (quarterly) Monetary Policy Report.
Jan. 29, 9:45 a.m.: The BoC announces its interest-rate decision.
Est. 3% vs. Prev. 3.25% followed by a press conference at 10:30 a.m.
Jan. 29, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces the U.S. central bank’s interest-rate decision.
Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate Est. 4.25% to 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.25% to 4.5% followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Livestream link.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Morpho DAO is voting whether to reduce MORPHO rewards by 30% across all assets and networks and set all assets other than those with ETH or USD denominations to have the same reward rate as BTC-denominated assets.
Sky DAO is voting whether to reduce the WBTC liquidation threshold from 55% to 50% on SparkLend Ethereum.
Yearn DAO is voting whether to fund and endorse Bearn, a new subDAO aiming to build and launch products on Berachain.
Unlocks
Jan. 28: Tribal Token (TRIBL) to unlock 14% of its circulating supply worth $60 million.
Jan. 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $52.9 million.
Jan. 31: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 41.5% of circulating supply worth $626 million.
Feb. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlocked about 2.13% of its circulating supply worth $226 million.
Token Listings
Jan. 28: Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) and Magic Eden (ME) to be listed on Kraken.
Jan. 29: Cronos (CRO), Movement (MOVE) and Usual (USUAL) to be listed on Kraken.
Conferences:
Jan. 29-31: Crypto Peaks 2025 (Palisades, California)
Jan. 30, 12:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.: International DeFi Day 2025 (online)
Jan. 30-31: Ethereum Zurich 2025
Jan. 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)
Jan. 30 to Feb. 1: Crypto Gathering 2025 (Miami Beach, Florida)
Jan. 30-Feb. 1: CryptoXR 2025 (Auxerre, France)
Jan. 30-Feb. 2: Oasis Onchain 2025 (Nassau, Bahamas)
Jan. 30-Feb. 4: The Satoshi Roundtable (Dubai)
Feb. 1-28: Mammathon global hackathon for Celestia (online).
Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)
Feb. 5-6: The 14th Global Blockchain Congress (Dubai)
Feb. 6: Ondo Summit 2025 (New York).
Feb. 7: Solana APEX (Mexico City)
Feb. 13-14: The 4th Edition of NFT Paris.
Feb. 18-20: CoinDesk’s Consensus Hong Kong
Feb. 19: Sui Connect: Hong Kong
Feb. 23-March 2: ETHDenver 2025 (Denver, Colorado)
Feb. 25: HederaCon 2025 (Denver)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
AI-focused Venice AI (VVV) zoomed to a $1 billion market capitalization on Monday on its appeal of offering private, uncensored AI inference access without per-request fees.
The Base-based token was listed on Coinbase — one of the rare assets listed on the exchange on the day of launch — which may have helped propel the move.
Users stake VVV tokens to gain API access to AI stalwart DeepSeek, with ongoing rewards from token emissions.
Derivatives Positioning
CME’s bitcoin and ether futures saw a notable drop in open interest on Monday, as traders de-risked during a sharp slide in Nvidia and other Nasdaq stocks.
Perpetual funding rates for major coins have stabilized in the range of an annualized 5%-10%. Funding rates for BTC had briefly flipped bearish below zero early Monday.
BTC calls are pricier than puts across all timeframes, while ETH’s front-end puts trade pricier, reflecting concerns of extended price drops in the next couple of days.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 1.32% from 4 p.m. ET Monday to $98,784.45 (24hrs: +4.07%)
ETH is up 1.62% at $3,050.20 (24hrs: +4.52%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 3.2% to 3,536.28 (24hrs: +6.73%)
CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 18 bps to 3.19%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0084% (9.2221% annualized) on Binance
DXY is up 0.57% at 107.95
Gold is up 0.34% at $2,743.59/oz
Silver is up 0.35% to $30.16/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -1.39% at 39,016.87
Hang Seng closed +0.14% to 20,225.11
FTSE is up 0.58% at 8,553.75
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.47% at 5,212.71
DJIA closed on Monday +0.65% to 44,713.58
S&P 500 closed -1.46% at 6,012.28
Nasdaq closed -3.07% at 19,341.83
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.7% at 25,289.15
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.34% at 2,330.61
U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 3 bps at 4.57%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.39% at 6070.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.67% at 21,400.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 44,935.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 59.16 (0.15%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.031 (-0.32%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 767 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $58.7
Total Fees: 6.13 BTC/ $616,619
CME Futures Open Interest: 170,240 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 37.6 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 10.68%
Technical Analysis
ETH carved out a candle with a long tail Monday, signaling bear fatigue at intraday lows. That’s often seen as a sign of an impending trend change higher.
Prices, however, remain trapped in a descending channel, suggesting a bearish outlook.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $347.92 (-1.63%), down 0.36% at $346.66 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $277.99 (-6.71%), up 0.76% at $280.11 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.36 (-15.87%).
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.28 (-8.53%), up 0.63% at $18.40 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.45 (-15.44%), down 6.87% at $12.61 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $11.28 (-29.41%), up 2.22% at $11.53 in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.31 (-10.62%), up 1.21% at $10.43 in pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $20.78 (-20.75%), down 3.99% at $21.61 in pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $50.43 (-9.07%).
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $74 (+20.82%), unchanged in pre-market.
ETF Flows
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$457.6 million
Cumulative net flows: $39.49 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.157 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$136.2 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.67 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.59 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
Daily trading volume on Solana-based decentralized exchanges has dropped sharply to less than $10 billon from the high of $35 billion registered on Jan. 18, when the TRUMP token debuted and triggered a memecoin frenzy.
Volumes, however, remain elevated at the average activity levels seen in November and December.
While You Were Sleeping
KuCoin to Pay Nearly $300M Fine After Pleading Guilty to DOJ Charges (CoinDesk): Crypto exchange KuCoin pleaded guilty to operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business, agreeing to pay $297 million in penalties and to exit the U.S. for two years.
Tuttle Capital Proposes First-Ever Leveraged ETFs of TRUMP, MELANIA, Cardano, Others (CoinDesk): Tuttle Capital Management filed 10 2x leveraged crypto ETF proposals with the SEC, including those tracking TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins.
Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Says ‘Own Bitcoin, Not MicroStrategy’ (CoinDesk): On Monday’s Mad Money, Jim Cramer endorsed owning bitcoin while cautioning against MicroStrategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder. Critics frequently interpret his advice as a contrarian indicator.
Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse Bats for Diversified U.S. Crypto Reserve (CoinDesk): Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse supports a U.S. digital asset reserve representing multiple tokens, not just bitcoin, calling BTC maximalism «the enemy of crypto progress.»
BOJ to Raise Rates Again by July, Eventually Eye Hike to 1.5%, Says Ex-Policymaker (Reuters): Former Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai predicts the bank will raise interest rates again by mid-2025, targeting 1.5% within two years.
Dollar Climbs as Trump Puts Tariff Threats Back on the Agenda (Bloomberg): The dollar strengthened against major currencies, with the yen leading losses after falling over 0.9%, as President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reignited tariff concerns.
OpenAI’s Altman Vows ‘Better Models’ as China’s DeepSeek Disrupts Global Race (Financial Times): On Monday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman responded to DeepSeek’s generative AI rival to ChatGPT by pledging to accelerate product launches and deliver superior models.
In the Ether
Litecoin (LTC) tried to punch above $88 during Monday’s trading session, but met a wall of sell orders near that level.
The token has since retreated to $85.21, down 3.17% since the session’s peak and 1.5% in the last 24-hour period. That stumble erased the week’s slim gains and set a new line in the sand for bulls.
The drop came at a time in which bitcoin (BTC) has been its dominance increase, while its volatility dropped below the 40 mark in a potential sign of incoming action.
Technical Analysis Overview
Litecoin’s price swung significantly in the last 24-hour period, covering a $3.05 range, or roughly 3.5%. The token encountered stiff resistance between $88.00 and $88.42, where sellers stepped in heavily, particularly during late evening trading hours, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model.
After peaking, LTC reversed lower and found new support at $85.37. The steepest drop was accompanied by the session’s highest trading volume of over 180,000 tokens, signaling strong bearish sentiment.
Short-term trading saw additional volatility. In the last few hours of trading, LTC spiked from $85.65 to $86.05, a 0.47% jump, on a burst of buying. But momentum quickly reversed, sending prices back down to $85.53 on another volume spike.
This cemented resistance near $86.05 and reinforced the new support level at $85.37, leaving Litecoin at $85.42 as the session ended. Traders are watching these levels closely for clues on whether the asset will stage a recovery or slip lower in the days ahead.
The crypto industry’s political-finance arm, the towering campaign-funding entity known as Fairshake, dropped another $1 million into the coffers of a special-election candidate hoping to replace a Virginia Democrat who died in office, Representative Gerald Connolly.
The candidate favored by the industry’s chief political action committee, James Walkinshaw, won the Democrats’ so-called firehouse primary over the weekend, in which the party conducted its own polling to determine its chosen candidate among a field of nine. The general election to formally select the Fairfax County region’s next member of Congress is set for Sept. 9, though the Democrat incumbent took about two thirds of the vote in the regular election last year, giving Walkinshaw a heavy advantage.
«We look forward to James joining the growing, bipartisan coalition in Congress that understands the importance of securing America’s leadership in the next generation of technology,» said Josh Vlasto, a Fairshake spokesman, in a statement. He argued that the race again demonstrated that the electorate isn’t moved by critics who attempt to tarnish candidates who show support for the sector and are backed by its campaign resources, as at least one of Walkinshaw’s opponents sought to do.
Fairshake (and its affiliate super PACs, Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress) rose into prominence in the 2024 congressional elections as it amassed a huge war chest from major digital assets businesses, including Coinbase, Ripple and a16z. It devoted its campaign spending in outsized chunks that in some cases dwarfed what was spent by the opponents of the group’s chosen candidates. As a result, Fairshake added a long list of winners to the ranks of Congress’ crypto supporters in those elections, but it has continued its strategy in special elections as one-off contests seek to fill vacated seats such as Connolly’s.
In the case of Walkinshaw, Connolly’s former chief of staff, the spending came from Protect Progress, which focuses on Democrat candidates. While his former boss had voted routinely against crypto issues, Walkinshaw’s campaign site says the candidate favors an «embrace of the next generation of technology,» including blockchain, which the campaign said «can reduce administrative costs for businesses and lower fees for consumers.»
«Congress should establish modern, risk-based regulatory frameworks that support responsible innovation and prevent abuse,» according to Walkinshaw’s website.
The super PAC still has about $116 million on hand as the 2026 congressional election cycle approaches next year, Vlasto said. Current members of Congress it supported in the past round are already at work on major crypto bills that have been advancing this year.
Fairshake makes massive «independent expenditures» in political races, meaning their outside money buys advertising without approval or communication from the candidate. Though it represents crypto interests, the advertising purchased by the group almost never mentions the topic of digital assets, instead focusing on whatever political points are most likely to garner a win.
Read More: Crypto’s Fairshake Notches Latest Wins in Florida Congressional Races
Ripple officially introduced the XRP Ledger’s Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) sidechain to the mainnet in an bid to improve the ecosystem’s interoperability and allow developers to deploy their Ethereum-based decentralized applications (dapps) with the XRPL.
The development adds EVM-compatible smart contracts while maintaining a connection to the XRPL, giving developers access to the ecosystem at a low cost, Ripple said in a blog post. It is designed to eliminate the trade-off between EVM compatibility and XRPL’s own advantages, opening the door for dapps to lean into XRP’s payments infrastructure.
“The XRPL EVM Sidechain introduces a flexible environment for developers to deploy EVM-based applications, while maintaining a connection to the XRPL’s efficiency,” David Schwartz, Ripple’s chief technology officer and a co-creater of XRPL, said in the post. “It extends the capabilities of the ecosystem without changing the fundamentals that make the XRPL reliable.”
The sidechain operates as a separate blockchain that is parallel and connected to the XRP Ledger over the Axelar bridge, an interoperability protocol. XRPL’s native token, XRP (XRP), will serve as the native gas token for the sidechain.
The chain is designed specifically for developers, as they can now build and deploy their EVM-based applications, while accessing XRPL’s network of over 6 million wallet holders, Ripple said. The sidechain is planned to eventually also integrate with Wormhole, another interoperability protocol, allowing even more developers to access the XRP ecosystem.
Read more: Ripple Integrates Wormhole With XRP Ledger to Power Institutional Multichain Moves
Litecoin Slips Below $86 as Resistance Holds; Traders Watch Bitcoin Dominance
Industry’s PAC Keeps Seeking to Add Allies as Congress Hashes Out Crypto Legislation
XRPL EVM Sidechain Goes Live, Unlocking Ethereum Dapps in XRP Ecosystem
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