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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Rebounds as DeepSeek Concerns Wane, AI Tokens Regroup
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market is showing signs of stabilizing, with bitcoin recovering to $102,000 and positive signals from futures tied to the Nasdaq. Leading the recovery among major cryptocurrencies is XRP, up 11%, followed by SOL with a 7% increase. AI coins, hit hard on Monday, are posting gains of as much as 4%.
Risk sentiment is likely being supported by skepticism surrounding the claims of Chinese tech startup DeepSeek, which asserts it spent only $6 million to develop its competitor to ChatGPT. Critics speculate the figure omits costs associated with earlier research and experimentation on architectures, algorithms and data. Additionally, a concept rooted in the Jevons Paradox suggests that advancements in efficiency often lead to increased usage rather than reduced consumption, leading to net positive growth in the industry.
That’s good news for bitcoin and the broader crypto industry because they align with the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism, particularly given President Trump’s crypto-friendly stance and plans to establish a strategic digital asset reserve.
Speaking of the strategic reserve, Arizona lawmakers have advanced a bill that would permit government entities or public funds to invest up to 10% of their capital in bitcoin and other digital assets.
The broader outlook remains bullish, with on-chain data pointing to capitulation of weak hands and continued accumulation by large investors.
«According to CryptoQuant data, the share of investors with a balance of at least 1,000 BTC who purchased coins in the last 155 days increased from 43% to 60%, reflecting the emergence of large players amid optimistic sentiment,» said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at the FxPro.
QCP Capital expects this week to test BTC’s correlation with equities, particularly as a favorable regulatory environment offers potential support. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Jan. 28, 1:00 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) network upgrade (v0.57.5).
Jan. 29: Cardano’s Plomin hard fork network upgrade.
Jan. 29: Ice Open Network (ION) mainnet launch.
Feb. 2, 8:00 p.m.: Core blockchain Athena hard fork network upgrade (v1.0.14)
Feb. 4: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Q4, FY 2024 earnings.
Feb. 4: Pepecoin (PEPE) halving. At block 400,000, the reward will drop to 31,250 PEPE.
Feb. 5, 3:00 p.m.: Boba Network’s Holocene hard fork network upgrade for its Ethereum-based L2 mainnet.
Feb. 6, 8:00 a.m.: Shentu Chain network upgrade (v2.14.0).
Feb. 12: Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) Q4 2024 earnings.
Feb. 15: Qtum (QTUM) hard fork network upgrade at block 4,590,000.
Feb. 18 (after market close): Semler Scientific (SMLR) Q4 2024 earnings.
Feb. 20: Coinbase Global (COIN) Q4 2024 earnings.
Macro
Jan. 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases December Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments Inventories and Orders.
MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. -1.1%.
Jan. 28, 1:00 p.m.: The Fed releases December’s H.6 (Money Stock Measures) report.
Money Supply Prev. $21.45T.
Jan. 29, 12:00 a.m.: Japan’s Cabinet Office releases January’s Consumer Confidence Survey.
Est. 36.5 vs. Prev. 36.2.
Jan. 29, 4:00 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) releases Monetary Developments in the Euro Area for December.
M3 Money Supply YoY Est. 3.8% vs. Prev. 3.8%.
Jan. 29, 8:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada (BoC) releases the (quarterly) Monetary Policy Report.
Jan. 29, 9:45 a.m.: The BoC announces its interest-rate decision.
Est. 3% vs. Prev. 3.25% followed by a press conference at 10:30 a.m.
Jan. 29, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces the U.S. central bank’s interest-rate decision.
Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate Est. 4.25% to 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.25% to 4.5% followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Livestream link.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Morpho DAO is voting whether to reduce MORPHO rewards by 30% across all assets and networks and set all assets other than those with ETH or USD denominations to have the same reward rate as BTC-denominated assets.
Sky DAO is voting whether to reduce the WBTC liquidation threshold from 55% to 50% on SparkLend Ethereum.
Yearn DAO is voting whether to fund and endorse Bearn, a new subDAO aiming to build and launch products on Berachain.
Unlocks
Jan. 28: Tribal Token (TRIBL) to unlock 14% of its circulating supply worth $60 million.
Jan. 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $52.9 million.
Jan. 31: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 41.5% of circulating supply worth $626 million.
Feb. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlocked about 2.13% of its circulating supply worth $226 million.
Token Listings
Jan. 28: Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) and Magic Eden (ME) to be listed on Kraken.
Jan. 29: Cronos (CRO), Movement (MOVE) and Usual (USUAL) to be listed on Kraken.
Conferences:
Jan. 29-31: Crypto Peaks 2025 (Palisades, California)
Jan. 30, 12:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.: International DeFi Day 2025 (online)
Jan. 30-31: Ethereum Zurich 2025
Jan. 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)
Jan. 30 to Feb. 1: Crypto Gathering 2025 (Miami Beach, Florida)
Jan. 30-Feb. 1: CryptoXR 2025 (Auxerre, France)
Jan. 30-Feb. 2: Oasis Onchain 2025 (Nassau, Bahamas)
Jan. 30-Feb. 4: The Satoshi Roundtable (Dubai)
Feb. 1-28: Mammathon global hackathon for Celestia (online).
Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)
Feb. 5-6: The 14th Global Blockchain Congress (Dubai)
Feb. 6: Ondo Summit 2025 (New York).
Feb. 7: Solana APEX (Mexico City)
Feb. 13-14: The 4th Edition of NFT Paris.
Feb. 18-20: CoinDesk’s Consensus Hong Kong
Feb. 19: Sui Connect: Hong Kong
Feb. 23-March 2: ETHDenver 2025 (Denver, Colorado)
Feb. 25: HederaCon 2025 (Denver)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
AI-focused Venice AI (VVV) zoomed to a $1 billion market capitalization on Monday on its appeal of offering private, uncensored AI inference access without per-request fees.
The Base-based token was listed on Coinbase — one of the rare assets listed on the exchange on the day of launch — which may have helped propel the move.
Users stake VVV tokens to gain API access to AI stalwart DeepSeek, with ongoing rewards from token emissions.
Derivatives Positioning
CME’s bitcoin and ether futures saw a notable drop in open interest on Monday, as traders de-risked during a sharp slide in Nvidia and other Nasdaq stocks.
Perpetual funding rates for major coins have stabilized in the range of an annualized 5%-10%. Funding rates for BTC had briefly flipped bearish below zero early Monday.
BTC calls are pricier than puts across all timeframes, while ETH’s front-end puts trade pricier, reflecting concerns of extended price drops in the next couple of days.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 1.32% from 4 p.m. ET Monday to $98,784.45 (24hrs: +4.07%)
ETH is up 1.62% at $3,050.20 (24hrs: +4.52%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 3.2% to 3,536.28 (24hrs: +6.73%)
CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 18 bps to 3.19%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0084% (9.2221% annualized) on Binance
DXY is up 0.57% at 107.95
Gold is up 0.34% at $2,743.59/oz
Silver is up 0.35% to $30.16/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -1.39% at 39,016.87
Hang Seng closed +0.14% to 20,225.11
FTSE is up 0.58% at 8,553.75
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.47% at 5,212.71
DJIA closed on Monday +0.65% to 44,713.58
S&P 500 closed -1.46% at 6,012.28
Nasdaq closed -3.07% at 19,341.83
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.7% at 25,289.15
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.34% at 2,330.61
U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 3 bps at 4.57%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.39% at 6070.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.67% at 21,400.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 44,935.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 59.16 (0.15%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.031 (-0.32%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 767 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $58.7
Total Fees: 6.13 BTC/ $616,619
CME Futures Open Interest: 170,240 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 37.6 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 10.68%
Technical Analysis
ETH carved out a candle with a long tail Monday, signaling bear fatigue at intraday lows. That’s often seen as a sign of an impending trend change higher.
Prices, however, remain trapped in a descending channel, suggesting a bearish outlook.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $347.92 (-1.63%), down 0.36% at $346.66 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $277.99 (-6.71%), up 0.76% at $280.11 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.36 (-15.87%).
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.28 (-8.53%), up 0.63% at $18.40 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.45 (-15.44%), down 6.87% at $12.61 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $11.28 (-29.41%), up 2.22% at $11.53 in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.31 (-10.62%), up 1.21% at $10.43 in pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $20.78 (-20.75%), down 3.99% at $21.61 in pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $50.43 (-9.07%).
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $74 (+20.82%), unchanged in pre-market.
ETF Flows
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$457.6 million
Cumulative net flows: $39.49 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.157 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$136.2 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.67 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.59 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
Daily trading volume on Solana-based decentralized exchanges has dropped sharply to less than $10 billon from the high of $35 billion registered on Jan. 18, when the TRUMP token debuted and triggered a memecoin frenzy.
Volumes, however, remain elevated at the average activity levels seen in November and December.
While You Were Sleeping
KuCoin to Pay Nearly $300M Fine After Pleading Guilty to DOJ Charges (CoinDesk): Crypto exchange KuCoin pleaded guilty to operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business, agreeing to pay $297 million in penalties and to exit the U.S. for two years.
Tuttle Capital Proposes First-Ever Leveraged ETFs of TRUMP, MELANIA, Cardano, Others (CoinDesk): Tuttle Capital Management filed 10 2x leveraged crypto ETF proposals with the SEC, including those tracking TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins.
Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Says ‘Own Bitcoin, Not MicroStrategy’ (CoinDesk): On Monday’s Mad Money, Jim Cramer endorsed owning bitcoin while cautioning against MicroStrategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder. Critics frequently interpret his advice as a contrarian indicator.
Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse Bats for Diversified U.S. Crypto Reserve (CoinDesk): Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse supports a U.S. digital asset reserve representing multiple tokens, not just bitcoin, calling BTC maximalism «the enemy of crypto progress.»
BOJ to Raise Rates Again by July, Eventually Eye Hike to 1.5%, Says Ex-Policymaker (Reuters): Former Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai predicts the bank will raise interest rates again by mid-2025, targeting 1.5% within two years.
Dollar Climbs as Trump Puts Tariff Threats Back on the Agenda (Bloomberg): The dollar strengthened against major currencies, with the yen leading losses after falling over 0.9%, as President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reignited tariff concerns.
OpenAI’s Altman Vows ‘Better Models’ as China’s DeepSeek Disrupts Global Race (Financial Times): On Monday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman responded to DeepSeek’s generative AI rival to ChatGPT by pledging to accelerate product launches and deliver superior models.
In the Ether
As bitcoin (BTC) and ether’s (ETH) recovery rally gathered momentum Tuesday, the perpetual futures market saw an even more pronounced increase in open interest, pointing to growing investor confidence as the Trump administration dialed back on its trade-tariff, anti-Fed rhetoric.
BTC, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, rose 6.79% nearly topping $94,000 for the first time since March, CoinDesk data show. That’s the most significant single-day percentage gain since April 9. The Ethereum blockchain’s ether token jumped 11% to $1,1175, it’s best performance since April 2.
The rally came as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, followed by President Donald Trump saying tariffs on Chinese goods will drop substantially from the present 245%. Trump further said he does not intend to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The price surge was characterized by traders deploying money for perpetual futures trading on major offshore exchanges as evidenced by bigger increases in open interest at Binance, Bybit, OKX and Deribit and leading on-chain perpetual-focused decentralized exchange Hyperliquid.
The cumulative notional open interest, or the dollar value of the number of active bets in BTC perpetual futures, rose by 10% to $17.83 billion, according to data source Velo. That’s the biggest single-day increase since March 2, when Trump mentioned XRP, ADA and SOL as potential candidates for a strategic digital assets reserve that would hold bitcoin and ether as the core. The administration later said it would keep bitcoin seized in enforcement actions as a reserve.
«Bitcoin’s Open Interest surged faster than its Price, with most positions originating from Binance,» Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal Research, said on X. «The issue is that a large portion consists of Longs, so increased volatility is expected in the coming hours.»
The price surge was likely aided by short squeeze, or unwinding of short perpetual futures bets. Funding rates were negative roughly 24 hours ago, implying a bias for shorts.
Ether’s notional open interest jumped nearly 16% to $6.60 billion, the largest single-day increase since Nov. 27.
An increase in open interest alongside a price rise is said to confirm the bullish momentum. In other words, BTC and ETH could continue to rise.
Funding Rates Bullish
The bias for bullish long positions is also evident from the moderately positive annualized perpetual funding rates, ranging between annualized 5% to 10% for BTC and ETH.
Funding rates, charged every eight hours, are payments exchanged between traders holding long and short positions in perpetual futures. They are designed to ensure the contract price stays close to the underlying asset’s spot price.
A positive funding rate implies that traders are more inclined and willing to pay fees to hold long positions. As such, it’s considered a sign of bullish sentiment. However, excessively high funding rates can indicate overcrowding or bullish speculative fervor, but that’s not the case right now.
Bitcoin (BTC) has become the fifth-largest asset by market capitalization, reaching $1.86 trillion and surpassing Google (GOOG) as it breaks through $94,000.
This marks the highest position bitcoin has ever attained in the rankings, even though its market cap previously exceeded $2 trillion when its price was over $109,000. At that time, however, tech stocks were significantly more elevated than they are at the moment.
Bitcoin has just broken above $94,000, turning positive for the year. Renewed optimism is emerging amid easing tensions in the U.S.–China tariff trade war, which has fueled gains for both bitcoin and tech stocks, with Nasdaq futures rising 2%.
Technically, bitcoin has now moved above key resistance levels that were noted on Tuesday. Additionally, it has set a new record relative to the Nasdaq, indicating a breakout not only against major tech indices but also across a range of key asset classes.
A threat actor seemingly exploited an XRP Ledger’s developer access token to publish illicit code to the burgeoning network in a move that could have been “catastrophic” for the network, the security team that spotted the issue said in an update.
Charlie Eriksen, a researcher at Aikido Security who first spotted the problem, said a hidden issue was added to recent versions of a new toolkit used to build apps that work with the XRP Ledger.
“A developer’s NPM access token was stolen by the threat actors,” Aikido said on X. “It is unclear how right now. It is also unclear who the threat actors are right now (although we have a hunch we are trying to confirm).”
The issue only affects versions of Node Package Manager (NPM), a site where developers share reusable code for projects. Major XRP-related services, like Xaman Wallet and XRPScan, said they were unaffected in separate X posts.
This flaw could let attackers steal users’ private keys, possibly accessing their crypto wallets in theory.
«At 21 Apr, 20:53 GMT+0, our system, Aikido Intel started to alert us to five new package version of the xrpl package. It is the official SDK for the XRP Ledger, with more than 140.000 weekly downloads,» Eriksen said in a security update.
«This package is used by hundreds of thousands of applications and websites making it a potentially catastrophic supply chain attack on the cryptocurrency ecosystem,» Eriksen noted.
He added that only third-party apps or services that installed the flawed versions during a brief period could be at risk.
As such, the XRP Ledger Foundation team quickly fixed the issue by releasing updated versions of the tool to replace the faulty ones. The affected versions (v4.2.1-4.2.4 and v2.14.2) were deprecated.
«To clarify: This vulnerability is in xrpl.js, a JavaScript library for interacting with the XRP Ledger. It does NOT affect the XRP Ledger codebase or Github repository itself. Projects using xrpl.js should upgrade to v4.2.5 immediately,» the foundation posted separately.
A JavaScript library is a collection of pre-written code to simplify tasks in web development. A GitHub repo is an online storage space for a project’s code, files, and history, hosted on GitHub.
XRP prices are up 8.5% in the past 24 hours alongside a broader market jump.
Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Surge Shows Investor Confidence on Trade Deals, Powell
Bitcoin Becomes Fifth Largest Global Asset, Surpasses Google’s Market Cap
XRP Ledger Bug Patched After ‘Serious’ Flaw Spotted in XRPL Library
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