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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Price Returns to Positive for the Year

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4 часа ago

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) was little changed Monday, adding less than 1% amid renewed trade tensions and concerns of geopolitical instability that spread into the Indian subcontinent, where India and Pakistan are exchanging small-arms fire.

The cryptocurrency rose 0.75% in the past 24 hours, turning positive for the year and decoupling from traditional risk assets as investors questioned the durability of the U.S.’s role as the global financial anchor. The broader market, measured through the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, rose 2.2%.

Stock-index futures in the U.S. are pointing to a slight drop and gold fell over 1% with investors likely taking profit from the precious metal’s 25% year-to-date rally. Equities endured a sell-off after China denied talks with the U.S. to reach a tariff deal.

“Bitcoin has acted less like a liquid levered version of levered US equity beta and more like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is,” Greg Cipolaro, the global head of research at NYDIG, wrote in a note.

While the cryptocurrency’s longer-term correlation to U.S. equities remains high, the short-term price action points to a market starting to treat BTC less like a tech stock proxy and more like a non-sovereign safe haven, according to NYDIG’s report.

Options and futures data suggest bitcoin’s rally, which saw it rise 9% last week, is still in its early stages. Funding rates for offshore perpetual swaps only recently turned positive, and call overwriting remains more popular than aggressive bullish positioning.

Bitcoin’s appeal as a politically neutral asset appears to be growing. The note shows that since President Donald Trump’s April 2 «Liberation Day,» bitcoin has outperformed U.S. Treasuries, the Swiss franc and gold.

The broader backdrop remains volatile. Measures of equity (VIX), bond (MOVE), and currency (CVIX) volatility have jumped in recent weeks. While they are expected to recede slightly, the outlook is for them to remain elevated for the foreseeable future, the note said.

Despite bitcoin’s growing appeal, macro and geopolitical events remain “the primary drivers of flow,” according to Jake O., an OTC trader at Wintermute who flagged in an email that bitcoin call calendar spreads targeting $110,000 in June remain “the preferred structure for those reaching for topside.»

This week investors will see an inflow of major corporate earnings reports, as well as the latest consumer income and expenditure report and April’s nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The data could provide further insights into a potential earlier-than-expected interest-rate cut, which Trump has been calling for. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
    • April 28: Enjin Relaychain increases active validator slots to 25 from 15 to enhance decentralization.
    • April 29, 1:05 a.m.: The Lorentz hard fork network upgrade gets activated on BNB Chain’s BSC. The upgrade reduces block time to 1.5 seconds, cutting latency, speeding up confirmations and improving user experience.
    • April 30, 9:30 a.m.: ProShares will launch three ETFs that will provide leveraged and inverse exposure to XRP: ​​the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, the ProShares Short XRP ETF and the ProShares UltraShort XRP ETF.
    • April 30, 10:03 a.m.: Gnosis Chain (GNO), an Ethereum sister chain, will activate the Pectra hard fork on its mainnet at slot 21,405,696, epoch 1,337,856.
  • Macro
    • April 28, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases March unemployment data.
      • Unemployment Rate Prev. 2.5%
    • April 29, 4:00 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) releases eurozone March M3 money supply data.
      • M3 YoY Est. 4.1% vs. Prev. 4%
    • April 29, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases March JOLTs report (job openings, hires, and separations).
      • Job Openings Est. 7.5M vs. Prev. 7.568M
      • Job Quits Prev. 3.195M
    • April 30, 8:00 a.m.: Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases March unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Prev. 6.8%
    • April 30, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (Preliminary) Q1 GDP growth data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. -0.6%
      • GDP Growth Rate YoY Prev. 0.5%
    • April 30, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (Advance) Q1 GDP growth data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 2.4%
    • April 30, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases March consumer income and expenditure data.
      • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.4%
      • Core PCE Price Index YoY Prev. 2.8%
      • PCE Price Index MoM Prev. 0.3%
      • PCE Price Index YoY Prev. 2.5%
      • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.8%
      • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.4%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • April 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.16
    • April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.33
    • May 1: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.97
    • May 1: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.02
    • May 1: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, $-0.23

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Uniswap DAO will vote on establishing a licensing and deployment framework for Uniswap v4 to accelerate its adoption across multiple chains. The proposal grants the Uniswap Foundation a blanket exemption to deploy v4 on any DAO-approved chain and gives the Uniswap Accountability Committee authority to update deployment records.Voting starts April 24 and ends on April 30.
    • Uniswap DAO is voting on a proposal to renew the Uniswap Accountability Committee (UAC) for Season 4, extending its mandate until the end of 2025. Voting ends April 29.
    • Balancer DAO is voting on allocating $250,000 worth of ARB to a multisig controlled by contributors to fund testing of new automated market maker (AMM) pool models.
    • April 30, 12 p.m.: Helium to host a community call meeting.
    • May 5, 4 p.m.: Livepeer (LPT) to host a Treasury Talk session on Discord.
  • Unlocks
    • April 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $24.77 million.
    • May 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.28% of its circulating supply worth $277.48 million.
    • May 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.67% of its circulating supply worth $11.63 million.
    • May 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.73% of its circulating supply worth $14.41 million.
    • May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.56% of its circulating supply worth $13.95 million.
    • May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $11.94 million.
  • Token Launches
    • April 28: Sign (SIGN) to be listed on Binance, BingX, BitMart, Bitget, KuCoin, Gate.io and others.
    • April 28: Snek (SNEK) to be listed on Kraken.
    • May 2: Binance to delist Alpaca Finance (ALPACA), PlayDapp (PDA), Viberate (VIB), and Wing Finance (WING).
    • May 5: Sonic (S) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • The attackers behind a $6 million hack of Solana-based Loopscale offered to return most of the stolen funds while demanding a 20% bounty.
  • «We are agreeable to collaborating with you to reach a white hat agreement,» the attackers said in an on-chain message sent to Loopscale. «However, we would like to negotiate the bounty percentage; our expectation is 20%. To demonstrate our commitment to a cooperative approach, we will immediately return the 5000 wSOL funds following the transmission of this message.»
  • «However, a successful collaboration is contingent on two conditions: first, a full release of liability for our actions, and second, an official reconciliation announcement from your team, along with notification to all on-chain partners to cease fund tracking and freezing,» the message added.
  • The attackers stole over 5.7 million USDC and 1,200 SOL (worth around $180,000 at the time) from Loopscale’s storage pools on April 26.
  • They manipulated the system Loopscale uses to set prices for its RateX PT token, which helps decide how much digital assets are worth when used as collateral (like a deposit for a loan).
  • The hackers tricked the system into thinking the token’s price was different, allowing them take more money than they should have. This affected 12% of all the money Loopscale was holding, specifically hurting people who had put their money into the USDC and SOL vaults.
  • Loopscale stopped all activity on the platform to prevent more theft. It initially let some users repay loans while keeping withdrawals from the vaults locked to stay safe.
  • The protocol figured out the problem was in the price-checking system, not the RateX token itself. On Sunday, it offered the hacker a deal: Return 90% of the stolen money (worth $5.3 million) and keep 10% (about $592,000) with no legal trouble.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Global open interest across all futures instruments on centralized exchanges currently totals $119 billion.
  • According to data from Laevitas, among assets with over $100 million in open interest, the largest week-over-week increases have been recorded in MemeFi, Virtuals Protocol, Bonk, TRUMP and Worldcoin.
  • Looking at the liquidations heat map of BTC/USDT pair on Binance, the next major price levels are positioned at $95,124 and $95,691, with liquidation clusters totaling $38.7 million and $31.2 million, respectively.
  • Analyzing the orderbook for the same pair, the largest sell limit orders are stacked at $97,000 and $100,000, with ask sizes of 178 BTC and 242 BTC.

Market Movements:

  • BTC is up 0.5% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $95,077 (24hrs: +1.19%)
  • ETH is up 0.51% at $1,812.79 (24hrs: +0.35%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 1.2% at 2,800.46 (24hrs: +2.08%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 2.95%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0027% (2.9499% annualized) on Binance

  • DXY is up 0.14% at 99.61
  • Gold is up 0.31% at $3292.7/oz
  • Silver is down 0.15% at $32.94/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed +0.38%% at 35839.99
  • Hang Seng closed -0.04% at 21971.96
  • FTSE is up 0.36% at 8445.32
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.6% at 5185.19
  • DJIA closed on Friday +0.05% at 40,113.50
  • S&P 500 closed +0.74% at 5525.21
  • Nasdaq closed +1.26% at 17,382.94
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.07% at 24,710.5
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.37% at 2,530.65
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 39 bps at 4.28%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.16% at 5541
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.16% at 19,503
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.05% at 40,232

Bitcoin Stats:

  • BTC Dominance: 64.20% (-0.11%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01907 (-0.21%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 829 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): 49.3 PH/s
  • Total Fees: 5.18 BTC / $486,920
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 143,115 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 28.6 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.10%

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis for April 28, 2025

  • Bitcoin posted its strongest weekly performance since the U.S. presidential election, rallying 10.1% to reach $93,778.
  • After reclaiming the yearly open at $93,403, price action remains in a pivotal zone — trading within the weekly order block that triggered the previous breakdown from range highs.
  • For further confirmation of strength, BTC will need to secure a daily close above $94,970 to avoid forming a swing failure pattern.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $368.71 (+5.24%), up 0.62% at $371.00 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $209.64 (+2.83%), down 0.20% at $209.22
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$20.63 (-0.24%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.30 (+2.07%), down 0.14% at $14.28
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.77 (-0.26%)
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.31 (+10.36%), down 0.36% at $8.28
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.01 (+1.69%), up 0.447% at $9.04
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.56 (+3.56%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.84 (+6.97%), up 0.43% at $37.00
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.50 (+0.64%), down 1.65% at $44.75

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

  • Daily net flow: $380 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $ 38.40 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $104.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.41 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.38 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Chart of the Day for April 28, 2025

  • Despite dipping to new range lows of $74,458 earlier this month, bitcoin is now on track to post its largest monthly gain since November 2024.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Ethereum macro indexThe Cantor Equity Partners SPAC for Twenty One has surged almost 200%. Germany's economy has contracted for 6 consecutive quarters, the country's longest recession in post-unification German history Proshares Short #XRP and UltraShort #XRP ETFs are launching and betting against XRP’s rising price using futures.S&P 500 visualized:

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Filecoin’s Clara Tsao: Building an Open and Trusted Internet

Published

1 час ago

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28 апреля, 2025

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Did AI write the sentence that you’re reading right now? Did AI create the photograph you just saw online? Was the shocking, controversial story that tipped an election actually real, or AI-fueled misinformation?

These are questions Clara Tsao has wrestled with for years, ranging from protecting national security (where she was the CTO of a team focused on countering homegrown extremism) to creating a better internet, where she’s co-founder of the Trust & Safety Professional Association. (She also somehow finds time to be the President of the White House Presidential Innovation Fellows and serve as Senior Advisor at Tech Against Terrorism.)

“For me, it’s always been about, how do we bring more democracy to the web, because it’s an open network that everyone should have the fundamental human right to access,” says Tsao, a Founding Officer at the Filecoin Foundation, and who will appear onstage at the AI Summit at Consensus 2025.

Tsao knows that AI, in a sense, is making all of these jobs harder. So Filecoin is focused on using blockchain to ensure digital authenticity and sniff out fakes. “AI is going to turbocharge everything that we see today, for good and for bad,” says Tsao. “And at the end of the day, I think everybody wants to know if they’re talking to an AI or to a human.”

Interview has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.

How has AI complicated the mission for an open and trusted internet?

Clara Tsao: So one of the biggest risks with AI is, how can we tell if something is AI or bot-generated, versus something that we know might be a human in the loop. And when I was working on topics like countering foreign influence operations, how do you prove that a bad actor actually came from a country that we know might be trying to intervene with us?

Can you give an example?

There was a period, I think in 2016, when Facebook actually took down a bunch of media channels that came from Russia, because it was linked to the Internet Research Agency, which is a group that was definitely trying to push propaganda during the election. So it’s about being able to prove the source of information, and making sure that people are not falling victim to misinformation.

And fakes are getting easier and easier to create, thanks to AI…

Right. And with AI-generated images and AI-generated news, it could be easy for the very bad actors to use that technology for evil.

Can you connect the dots of how blockchain helps crack this problem?

One thing that’s great about decentralized technologies — and decentralized storage specifically — is you can actually prove how data is changed over the course of time, because we store every piece of data by hash, not by location.

So let’s say we have a data set, and we’re worried that maybe the data is being manipulated. Maybe a government is coming in and changing something so that it can fit their political agenda. There are many reasons why preserving information is more important than ever, and that’s something that we can absolutely do with Filecoin.

Who are you working with specifically?

We’ve worked with tons of amazing nonprofits over the years, like MuckRock, to make sure we can not only archive and preserve critical information, but also make sure it’s tamper-proof, make sure it’s resilient. For example, if it’s information that journalists pull from, that we can have resilient copies of it all around the world. We can also use that same technology to really prove that this journalist took a certain photo.

In certain elections, there might be disinformation about whether something actually happened or not, and you can have photographers use decentralized technologies. And we have a ton of applications of companies building on top of Filecoin today, that help verify this image was taken from this device at this point of time.

That’s really powerful in terms of not just day-to-day journalism, but also in being able to be admissible in courts. In Ukraine, there might be war photos that might be taken out of context. And we’re able to preserve a number of key photographs that can one day be admissible in international criminal courts for human rights situations.

How are you now thinking about Filecoin’s mission?

We can help verify if you’re talking to AI or a human. We can help store data at a fraction of the cost. We can make sure that data is more accurate, because most AI data-sets are built off training tons of data. And storing data is very expensive. So our goal is to make storing data affordable for everyone, and making sure that people are also pulling from as much data as possible, so AI agents aren’t only trained from a subset.

And finally, we can have a place where it’s not just monopolies being able to access tons of data. People can have a choice on where to store it, how to store it. So they’re not locked into a walled garden where they can never get out.

Love it. Thanks Clara. See you in Toronto at Consensus!

Jeff Wilser will host the AI Summit at Consensus 2025, and is host of The People’s AI: The Decentralized AI Podcast.

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Prediction Markets Traders Bet Big on Easy Liberal Win as Canadians Head to the Polls

Published

2 часа ago

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28 апреля, 2025

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Political bettors on Polymarket and other platforms are paying attention to Canada as the nation heads to the polls.

As the country’s 45th election comes to a close, a contract asking bettors to predict who will be Canada’s next Prime Minister gives the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney a 78% chance, and the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre a 22% shot.

(Polymarket)

Political bettors are slightly more skeptical of Carney’s chances of winning than the polls, but both are pointing in the same direction. A poll aggregator from public broadcaster CBC puts Carney’s chances at 89%.

(CBC)

Myriad Markets, another prediction market, is giving Carney similar odds to Polymarket.

(Myriad.Markets)

FanDuel, a licensed betting platform open only to residents of Ontario, Canada, initially gave the Conservatives a sharp, contrarian lead of 70%, according to a report from the National Post. Still, odds have fallen in line with prediction markets, and it now gives the Liberals a roughly 80% chance of winning.

Unlike the U.S. election, there isn’t a crypto angle up north with leaders’ campaigns focused on the trade war and inflation.

Too Big to Rig?

A growing narrative in certain corners of the internet is that Polymarket is prone to manipulation and its numbers aren’t reliable, criticisms that echo what was said in the last weeks of the U.S. election when the site gave Donald Trump a commanding lead as polls showed a tight race.

Critics say Poilievre’s chances are being suppressed and do not reflect the political sentiment of the populace.

However, manipulating prediction markets would be expensive, and there’s no credible evidence that this is happening even as Polymarket is banned in Canada’s largest province after a settlement with its securities regulator.

Data portal Polymarket Analytics shows that the Canadian election contract leads the platform in open interest, which is the total value of active, unsettled bets and a good measure of market engagement.

(Polymarket Analytics)

Market data also shows that position holding is quite distributed, with the largest holder of the Poilivere—No side of the contracting holding 6% of all shares and the largest holder of the Carney—Yes side holding 5%.

(Polymarket Analytics)

One bettor, who is betting big on Carney with a six-figure position, who spoke to CoinDesk, said their motives are non-partisan, and said that the quality of Canadian polling makes him confident that the Liberals will win.

«Poilievre needs a 7-point polling error to win and I think the probability of that is closer to 7% than his current market price of 23c,» trader Tenadome told CoinDesk via an X DM. «The pool of Poilievre bettors seems to largely be very dumb money that believes in things like China is rigging the polls.»

Currently, the trader with the largest winnings on the contract is «ball-sack» with a profit of $124,890, thanks to bets on Carney. On the other side of the trade is «biden4prez,» who lost just over $98,000 – the most out of any trader – betting on Poilievre and against Carney.

Read more: Previewing the Canadian Election’s Crypto Angle

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CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: Ripple (XRP) Gains 5.8%, Leading Index Higher

Published

3 часа ago

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28 апреля, 2025

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CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 2800.9, up 1.3% (+34.92) since 4 p.m. ET on Friday.

Nine of 20 assets are trading higher.

9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2025-04-28: chart

Leaders: XRP (+5.8%) and SUI (+5.2%).

Laggards: BCH (-6.2%) and UNI (-4.8%).

The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

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