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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Owners HODL as Sunny Second Quarter Nears

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The sun shone on crypto markets early Wednesday, with bitcoin having another go at $88,000 amid growing chatter about bullish seasonality factors as March draws to a close and the second quarter looms.

The last 10 years of price data tracked by analyst Miles Deutscher show April as the turning point for the market, with a 75% chance of upside between now and year-end. The pattern was noted by QCP Capital as well, which pointed to the second quarter, and April in particular, as bullish for crypto.

«The S&P 500 has delivered an average annualized return of 19.6% in Q2, while Bitcoin has also recorded its second-best median performance during this stretch — again, trailing only Q4,» the Singapore-based firm said on Telegram.

Seasonality factors are not as reliable as standalone indicators, but when coupled with other signs, such as the recent halt in selling by long-term holders, they appear credible.

The so-called 1Y+HODL wave indicator, which tracks the proportion of Bitcoin addresses (or wallets) that have kept their BTC for at least one year, has turned upward, signaling a shift into a holding strategy, according to data source Bitbo Charts. See Chart of the Day, below, too.

Reports that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is drafting rules to remove reputational risk from its bank supervision were labeled “a big win for crypto» by White House crypto czar David Sacks. «In practice, this vague and subjective criteria was used to justify the debanking of lawful crypto businesses through Operation Chokepoint 2.0,» Sacks said on X.

Speaking of the wider market, social media talk about stablecoins has picked up, with observers pointing to $31.8 billion in stablecoins sitting on the sidelines on Binance as potential dry powder waiting for a catalyst. BlackRock’s decision to debut a physical bitcoin exchange-traded product in Europe with a reduced total expense ratio of 15 bps is seen as highly positive as well, considering fees are generally higher there than in the U.S., capping widespread adoption.

Still, macroeconomic uncertainty has the potential to play spoilsport and keep animal spirits at bay. While recent media reports suggest President Donald Trump’s expected reciprocal tariffs on April 2 may be softer than expected, there is still considerable confusion concerning the legality of the tariffs and the countries and sectors that will be targeted.

The deeper slide in U.S. consumer confidence in March and the death cross in the USD/JPY pair, indicating a strengthening of the yen, a haven currency, ahead, don’t help matters either. So stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

March 26, 10:37 a.m.: Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet will activate the Pectra hard fork network upgrade at epoch 2048.

March 27: Walrus (WAL) mainnet goes live.

April 1: Metaplanet (3350) 10-for-1 stock split becomes effective.

Macro

March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases (Final) Q4 GDP data.

GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 3.1%

Core PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.2%

PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 1.5%

Real Consumer Spending QoQ Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 3.7%

March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended March 22.

Initial Jobless Claims Est. 225K vs. Prev. 223K

March 27, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the nomination of Paul Atkins to the chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Livesteam link.

March 27, 3:00 p.m.: Mexico’s central bank announces its interest rate decision.

Target Rate Est. 9% vs. Prev. 9.5%

March 28, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February unemployment rate data.

Unemployment Rate Est. 6.8% vs. Prev. 6.5%

March 28, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases February unemployment rate data.

Unemployment Rate Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%

March 28, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases January GDP data.

GDP MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%

March 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases February consumer income and expenditure data.

Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%

Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.6%

PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%

PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5%

Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.9%

Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.2%

April 2, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs plan goes live.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, $-0.02

March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Sky DAO is discussing redirecting the Boost program’s budget to promote USDS on non-Ethereum networks and stop Sky token buybacks to instead direct surplus toward Sky takers.

DYdX DAO is discussing the allocation of $10 million to fund the most profitable traders on the platform in a bid to attract talent. The DAO is also voting on creating a new liquidity tier designed for markets introduced through the Instant Market Listings feature.

Venus DAO is discussing the potential acquisition of a 33% stake in Thena.fi for $4.5 million to position Venus to “build a comprehensive DeFi SuperApp on the BNB Chain.”

Balancer DAO is discussing the establishment of a Balancer Alliance Program, which would see the protocol share a portion of the revenue it generates with key ecosystem partners in the form of USDC as veBAL.

March 26, 8 a.m.: Kaia Chain to hold a Community Town Hall to discuss its next moves and latest business and governance insights.

March 26, 10 a.m.: Conflux Network to host its quarterly Community Call with founders Fan Long and YanJie Zhang.

March 26, 12 p.m.: Helium Foundation to hold a Community Call to discuss the protocol and key ecosystem updates.

March 27, 9 a.m.: PancakeSwap and EOS Network Foundation to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.

March 27, 12 p.m.: Cardano Foundation to hold a livestream with its CTO breaking down the project’s roadmap.

Unlocks

March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $28.88 million.

April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $164.34 million.

April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $14.39 million.

April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $17.29 million.

April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $143.5 million.

April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $11.98 million.

April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $27.29 million.

Token Listings

March 27: Walrus (WAL) to be listed on Gate.io and Bybit.

March 28: Binance to delist Aergo (AERGO).

March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Day 3 of 3: Merge Buenos Aires

Day 2 of 2: PAY360 2025 (London)

Day 2 of 3: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)

Day 2 of 4: Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2025 (Boao, China)

March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)

March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)

Day 1 of 3: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)

March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)

March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)

March 27: Web3 Banking Symposium 2.0 (Lugano, Switzerland)

March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025

March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

PumpSwap has rapidly gained new users and over $1.2 billion in trading volumes just days after going live and now accounts for nearly 15% of on-chain trading activity on Solana.

Pump Fun introduced PumpSwap last week as its own decentralized exchange (DEX), aiming to streamline token migrations and trading.

Pump Fun, a prominent Solana-blockchain platform, gained traction for enabling rapid token creation and deployment, often associated with memecoins. It has facilitated over 1.5 million token launches since its early 2024 debut, finding an audience looking to trade microcap tokens on Solana’s low-cost, high-speed network.

Tokens migrated to Solana DEX Raydium after they hit a $69,000 market capitalization on Pump.Fun. With PumpSwap, the tokens (and trading fees) never leave the broader Pump ecosystem.

Abracadabra Money’s gmCauldrons suite suffered a hack on Tuesday. resulting in a $13 million MIM loss. The rest of the Abracadabra product ecosystem was not affected, with the DAO outlining a recovery plan in «Abracadabra Money: The Path Forward.»

The DAO treasury, holding $19 million in assets, has already acquired 6.5 million MIM to repay 50% of the loss, with plans to cover the remaining amount in the coming months, demonstrating a proactive response to mitigate the impact.

Derivatives Positioning

SHIB’s perpetual futures open interest has risen by 14%, outpacing other major cryptocurrencies, while BTC and ETH open interest has dropped by under 1% in the past 24 hours.

A meme token receiving more net inflows than other assets is often a precursor to a market correction.

Perpetual funding rates for most major tokens, excluding TRX, BNB and SUI, remain positive, but below an annualized 10%, signifying a moderately bullish positioning.

Deribit’s BTC and ETH options continue to cast doubts on the recent price recovery, sporting a bullish call bias only after May expiries.

Block flows featured a BTC bull call spread in the September expiry involving $90K and $125K strikes. In ETH’s case, flows leaned slightly bearish with outright longs in put options at $1.9K and $2K strikes.

Market Movements:

BTC is up 0.14% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $88,019.03 (24hrs: +1.02%)

ETH is down 0.25% at $2,060.34 (24hrs: -0.22%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 0.28% at 2,811.12 (24hrs: +0.96%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.95%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0101% (3.6869% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at 104.23

Gold is unchanged at $3,024.80/oz

Silver is up 0.5% at $34.17/oz

Nikkei 225 closed +0.65% at 38,027.29

Hang Seng closed +0.6% at 23,483.32

FTSE is unchanged at 8,668.40

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.65% at 5,439.52

DJIA closed on Tuesday unchanged at 42,587.50

S&P 500 closed +0.16 at 5,776.65

Nasdaq closed +0.46% at 18,271.86

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.14% at 25,339.50

S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.03% at 2,480.80

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 1 bps at 4.33%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.15% at 5,817.50

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.2% at 20,448.50

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.12% at 42,854.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 61.46 (-0.03%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02344 (-0.85%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 838 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $50.17

Total Fees: 13.1 BTC / $1,152,066

CME Futures Open Interest: 147,550 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 29.1 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 8.26%

Technical Analysis

The yen-dollar’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has crossed under its 200-day SMA, confirming a so-called death cross bearish momentum pattern.

It’s a sign of an impending rally in the yen, seen as a haven currency, which could destabilize risk assets, including cryptocurrency.

The yen-bullish pattern comes as talk of Bank of Japan rate increases gathers pace.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $341.81 (+1.81%), up 0.47% at $343.40 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $204.23 (+0.59%), down 0.11% at $204

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$18.65

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.25 (-2.46%), down 0.35% at $14.30

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.51 (-2.41%), down 0.12% at $8.50

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.66 (-6.98%), down 0.12% at $8.65

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.73 (-0.68%), down 0.11% at $8.72

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.65 (-4.05%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $42.38 (-1.17%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $56.04 (+6.46%), up 0.82% at $56.50

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $26.8 million

Cumulative net flows: $36.24 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1,115 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$3.3 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.43 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.415 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

The chart shows represents the proportion of crypto addresses — or wallets — that have held their bitcoin for at least one year without any outgoing transactions.

The metric has turned up in recent weeks, rising from 61.8% to 63.4% in a sign of renewed holding sentiment.

While You Were Sleeping

Russia, Ukraine Agree to Sea, Energy Truce; Washington Seeks Easing of Sanctions (Reuters): Shortly after the Washington-brokered truce was announced, Moscow said the pause in maritime and energy attacks wouldn’t begin unless sanctions on certain Russian banks were removed.

Top Federal Reserve Official Says Market Angst Over Inflation Would Be ‘Red Flag’ (Financial Times): The Chicago Fed president said the central bank might delay rate cuts if investors start expecting inflation to stay high.

Movement’s MOVE Token Soars 25% as Strategic Reserve Is Unveiled After Malicious Market Maker Activity (CoinDesk): Movement is establishing a $38 million strategic reserve to buy its MOVE token using funds recovered from a market maker accused of breaching contract terms.

Peter Thiel-Backed Plasma Unveils ‘HotStuff-Inspired Consensus’ for High-Frequency Global Stablecoin Transfers (CoinDesk): Features include custom gas tokens, zero-charge USDT transfers and confidential transactions.

Celo Migration to Layer-2 Network Is Done, Bringing in New Era for the Blockchain (CoinDesk): Celo completed its transition from a layer-1 blockchain to an Ethereum layer-2 chain after a nearly two-year process.

Canada and India Look to Reset Ties in Counter to Trump’s Duties (Bloomberg): The two countries are reportedly considering mending their diplomatic rift, which began in September 2023, as they brace for the impact of potential new U.S. tariffs.

In the Ether

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Bitcoin Plunges Below $84K after $115B Sell-Off Wipes Out Weekly Gains

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Hopes for the crypto recovery to continue vanished on Friday, as a market-wide rout erased virtually all gains from earlier this week.

Bitcoin (BTC), hovering just below $88,000 a day ago, tumbled to $83,800 recently and is down 3.8% over the past 24 hours. The broad-market benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index declined 5.7%, with native cryptos Avalanche (AVAX), Polygon (POL), Near (NEAR), and Uniswap (UNI) all nursing almost 10% losses during the same period. Today’s sell-off wiped out $115 billion of the total market value of cryptocurrencies, TradingView data shows.

Ethereum’s ether (ETH) declined over 6% to extend its downtrend against BTC, falling to its weakest relative price to the largest cryptocurrency since May 2020. Underscoring the bearish trend, spot ETH exchange-traded funds failed to attract any net inflows since early March, while their BTC counterparts saw over $1 billion of inflows in the past two weeks, according to Farside Investors data.

The ugly crypto price action coincided with U.S. stocks selling off during the day on poor economic data, with the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index down 2% and 2.8%, respectively. Crypto-focused stocks also suffered heavy losses: Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate BTC holder, closed the day 10% lower, while crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) dropped 7.7%.

The February PCE inflation report, released this morning, showed a 2.5% year-over-year increase in the price index, with core inflation at 2.8%, slightly above expectations. Consumer spending showed a modest 0.4% rise, though inflation-adjusted figures indicate minimal growth, suggesting potential headwinds for economic growth. The Federal Reserve of Atlanta’s GDPNow model now projects the U.S. economy to contract 2.8% in the first quarter, 0.5% adjusted for gold imports and exports, spurring stagflationary fears.

The implementation of broad-scale U.S. tariffs next week—the so-called «Liberation Day’ on April 2, as the Trump administration refers to—also compounded investor concerns across markets.

CME gapfill or another leg lower?

Bitcoin has closely correlated with the Nasdaq lately, so U.S. equities rolling over for another leg down could weigh on the broader crypto market. However, on a more optimistic note, today’s decline could be BTC filling the price gap at around $84,000-$85,000 between Monday’s open and the previous week’s close on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures market. Historically, BTC usually revisited similar CME gaps and a drop to $84,000 was in the cards, CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten noted earlier this week.

Read more: Bitcoin’s Weekend Surge Forms Another CME Gap, Signaling Possible Drop Back

«At this stage it’s difficult to determine if we have already seen a bottom in 2025,» Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said in a market note. Despite the on-going correction, he noted several positive trends such as crypto-friendly policies in the U.S. and more traditional financial firms entering the industry or expanding crypto offerings, which could bode well for digital assets later in the year.

«Any additional setbacks that we might see should be exceptionally well supported into the $70-75k area,» he added.

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President Trump Pardons Arthur Hayes, 2 Other BitMEX Co-Founders

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Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, has been granted a pardon by U.S. President Donald Trump, a White House official confirmed Friday.

Trump also pardoned Hayes’ co-founders at BitMEX, Samuel Reed and Benjamin Delo. CNBC first reported the pardons.

In 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) brought charges against BitMEX, its three co-founders, and its first employee, Gregory Dwyer, accusing them of violating the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA). Prosecutors alleged BitMEX advertised itself as a place where customers could use its platform virtually anonymously, without providing basic know-your-customer (KYC) information. All four individuals eventually pleaded guilty and were sentenced to fines and probationary sentences. The exchange itself pleaded guilty to violating the BSA last year.

Hayes faced two years of probation; Delo spent 30 months and Reed 18 months. Dwyer got 12 months of probation.

In a statement, Delo said he and his colleagues had been «wrongfully targeted.»

«This full and unconditional pardon by President Trump is a vindication of the position we have always held — that BitMEX, my co-founders and I should never have been charged with a criminal offense through an obscure, antiquated law,» he said. «As the most successful crypto exchange of its kind, we were wrongfully made to serve as an example, sacrificed for political reasons and used to send inconsistent regulatory signals. I’m sincerely grateful to the President for granting this pardon to me and my co-founders.»

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ordered BitMEX to pay $100 million for violating the Commodity Exchange Act and other CFTC regulations in 2021, separately from its DOJ settlements.

Attorneys representing Hayes, Delo and Reed did not immediately return requests for comment.

The reported pardons come just a day after Trump granted a pardon to Trevor Milton, the former CEO of Nikola Motors who was previously convicted of fraud in 2022. In January, Trump made good on long-standing promises to pardon Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, who was 11 years into a draconian sentence of double life in prison plus 40 years, with no possibility of parole. Since Ulbricht’s pardon, former FTX CEO and convicted fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried has been angling for his own pardon, attempting to curry favor with the Trump administration and appearing on Tucker Carlson in an unauthorized jailhouse interview that landed him in solitary confinement.

Former Binance CEO Changpeng «CZ» Zhao, who pleaded guilty to the same charge as Hayes and served four months in prison last year — making him not only the richest person to ever go to prison in the U.S., but also the only person to ever serve jail time for violating the BSA — has denied reports that he, too, is seeking a pardon from President Trump.

But, Zhao admitted in a recent X post that “no felon would mind a pardon, especially being the only one in US history who was ever sentenced to prison for a single BSA charge.”

UPDATE (March 28, 2025, 20:30 UTC): Adds Delo statement and White House official.

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FDIC Reverses U.S. Crypto Banking Policy That Demanded Prior Approvals

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The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will no longer instruct banks to get prior sign-off before they engage in crypto activities — a standard that was set in 2022 and that effectively severed institutions from the digital assets sector as they waited for approvals that never came.

The FDIC, which is the chief federal supervisor of thousands of typically smaller banks and runs the banking industry’s government backstop, had occupied a significant role in the crypto debanking saga. A courtroom fight with crypto exchange Coinbase had recently unveiled dozens of letters between the regulator and banks it supervised. In that 2022 correspondence, the FDIC had instructed them to steer clear of new crypto matters while it hashed out policies, though the agency never developed any and left bankers hanging.

The new industry guidance issued on Friday comes after President Donald Trump elevated a crypto-friendly leadership at the FDIC and other financial regulators and has directed his administration to open doors for the industry.

“With today’s action, the FDIC is turning the page on the flawed approach of the past three years,” said FDIC Acting Chairman Travis Hill, in a statement. “I expect this to be one of several steps the FDIC will take to lay out a new approach for how banks can engage in crypto- and blockchain-related activities in accordance with safety and soundness standards.”

Read More: Trump’s FDIC Chief Rethinks Crypto Guidance as U.S. Senators Probe Debanking

Banks that were once expected to get pre-approvals on crypto matters can now forge ahead, as long as they’re appropriately considering the risks.

The guidance to seek pre-approvals was a common stance across all three U.S. banking agencies, including the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC also acted recently to rescind its similar 2022 guidance, which had emerged as the digital assets sector was beset by failure and high-profile fraud, and global exchange FTX was steering toward disaster.

Read More: OCC Says Banks Can Engage in Crypto Custody and Certain Stablecoin Activities

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