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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Owners HODL as Sunny Second Quarter Nears
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The sun shone on crypto markets early Wednesday, with bitcoin having another go at $88,000 amid growing chatter about bullish seasonality factors as March draws to a close and the second quarter looms.
The last 10 years of price data tracked by analyst Miles Deutscher show April as the turning point for the market, with a 75% chance of upside between now and year-end. The pattern was noted by QCP Capital as well, which pointed to the second quarter, and April in particular, as bullish for crypto.
«The S&P 500 has delivered an average annualized return of 19.6% in Q2, while Bitcoin has also recorded its second-best median performance during this stretch — again, trailing only Q4,» the Singapore-based firm said on Telegram.
Seasonality factors are not as reliable as standalone indicators, but when coupled with other signs, such as the recent halt in selling by long-term holders, they appear credible.
The so-called 1Y+HODL wave indicator, which tracks the proportion of Bitcoin addresses (or wallets) that have kept their BTC for at least one year, has turned upward, signaling a shift into a holding strategy, according to data source Bitbo Charts. See Chart of the Day, below, too.
Reports that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is drafting rules to remove reputational risk from its bank supervision were labeled “a big win for crypto» by White House crypto czar David Sacks. «In practice, this vague and subjective criteria was used to justify the debanking of lawful crypto businesses through Operation Chokepoint 2.0,» Sacks said on X.
Speaking of the wider market, social media talk about stablecoins has picked up, with observers pointing to $31.8 billion in stablecoins sitting on the sidelines on Binance as potential dry powder waiting for a catalyst. BlackRock’s decision to debut a physical bitcoin exchange-traded product in Europe with a reduced total expense ratio of 15 bps is seen as highly positive as well, considering fees are generally higher there than in the U.S., capping widespread adoption.
Still, macroeconomic uncertainty has the potential to play spoilsport and keep animal spirits at bay. While recent media reports suggest President Donald Trump’s expected reciprocal tariffs on April 2 may be softer than expected, there is still considerable confusion concerning the legality of the tariffs and the countries and sectors that will be targeted.
The deeper slide in U.S. consumer confidence in March and the death cross in the USD/JPY pair, indicating a strengthening of the yen, a haven currency, ahead, don’t help matters either. So stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
March 26, 10:37 a.m.: Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet will activate the Pectra hard fork network upgrade at epoch 2048.
March 27: Walrus (WAL) mainnet goes live.
April 1: Metaplanet (3350) 10-for-1 stock split becomes effective.
Macro
March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases (Final) Q4 GDP data.
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 3.1%
Core PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.2%
PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 1.5%
Real Consumer Spending QoQ Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 3.7%
March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended March 22.
Initial Jobless Claims Est. 225K vs. Prev. 223K
March 27, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the nomination of Paul Atkins to the chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Livesteam link.
March 27, 3:00 p.m.: Mexico’s central bank announces its interest rate decision.
Target Rate Est. 9% vs. Prev. 9.5%
March 28, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February unemployment rate data.
Unemployment Rate Est. 6.8% vs. Prev. 6.5%
March 28, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases February unemployment rate data.
Unemployment Rate Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
March 28, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases January GDP data.
GDP MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
March 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases February consumer income and expenditure data.
Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.6%
PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5%
Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.9%
Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.2%
April 2, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs plan goes live.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, $-0.02
March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Sky DAO is discussing redirecting the Boost program’s budget to promote USDS on non-Ethereum networks and stop Sky token buybacks to instead direct surplus toward Sky takers.
DYdX DAO is discussing the allocation of $10 million to fund the most profitable traders on the platform in a bid to attract talent. The DAO is also voting on creating a new liquidity tier designed for markets introduced through the Instant Market Listings feature.
Venus DAO is discussing the potential acquisition of a 33% stake in Thena.fi for $4.5 million to position Venus to “build a comprehensive DeFi SuperApp on the BNB Chain.”
Balancer DAO is discussing the establishment of a Balancer Alliance Program, which would see the protocol share a portion of the revenue it generates with key ecosystem partners in the form of USDC as veBAL.
March 26, 8 a.m.: Kaia Chain to hold a Community Town Hall to discuss its next moves and latest business and governance insights.
March 26, 10 a.m.: Conflux Network to host its quarterly Community Call with founders Fan Long and YanJie Zhang.
March 26, 12 p.m.: Helium Foundation to hold a Community Call to discuss the protocol and key ecosystem updates.
March 27, 9 a.m.: PancakeSwap and EOS Network Foundation to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
March 27, 12 p.m.: Cardano Foundation to hold a livestream with its CTO breaking down the project’s roadmap.
Unlocks
March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $28.88 million.
April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $164.34 million.
April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $14.39 million.
April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $17.29 million.
April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $143.5 million.
April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $11.98 million.
April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $27.29 million.
Token Listings
March 27: Walrus (WAL) to be listed on Gate.io and Bybit.
March 28: Binance to delist Aergo (AERGO).
March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 3 of 3: Merge Buenos Aires
Day 2 of 2: PAY360 2025 (London)
Day 2 of 3: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
Day 2 of 4: Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2025 (Boao, China)
March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)
March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
Day 1 of 3: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)
March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)
March 27: Web3 Banking Symposium 2.0 (Lugano, Switzerland)
March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025
March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
PumpSwap has rapidly gained new users and over $1.2 billion in trading volumes just days after going live and now accounts for nearly 15% of on-chain trading activity on Solana.
Pump Fun introduced PumpSwap last week as its own decentralized exchange (DEX), aiming to streamline token migrations and trading.
Pump Fun, a prominent Solana-blockchain platform, gained traction for enabling rapid token creation and deployment, often associated with memecoins. It has facilitated over 1.5 million token launches since its early 2024 debut, finding an audience looking to trade microcap tokens on Solana’s low-cost, high-speed network.
Tokens migrated to Solana DEX Raydium after they hit a $69,000 market capitalization on Pump.Fun. With PumpSwap, the tokens (and trading fees) never leave the broader Pump ecosystem.
Abracadabra Money’s gmCauldrons suite suffered a hack on Tuesday. resulting in a $13 million MIM loss. The rest of the Abracadabra product ecosystem was not affected, with the DAO outlining a recovery plan in «Abracadabra Money: The Path Forward.»
The DAO treasury, holding $19 million in assets, has already acquired 6.5 million MIM to repay 50% of the loss, with plans to cover the remaining amount in the coming months, demonstrating a proactive response to mitigate the impact.
Derivatives Positioning
SHIB’s perpetual futures open interest has risen by 14%, outpacing other major cryptocurrencies, while BTC and ETH open interest has dropped by under 1% in the past 24 hours.
A meme token receiving more net inflows than other assets is often a precursor to a market correction.
Perpetual funding rates for most major tokens, excluding TRX, BNB and SUI, remain positive, but below an annualized 10%, signifying a moderately bullish positioning.
Deribit’s BTC and ETH options continue to cast doubts on the recent price recovery, sporting a bullish call bias only after May expiries.
Block flows featured a BTC bull call spread in the September expiry involving $90K and $125K strikes. In ETH’s case, flows leaned slightly bearish with outright longs in put options at $1.9K and $2K strikes.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 0.14% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $88,019.03 (24hrs: +1.02%)
ETH is down 0.25% at $2,060.34 (24hrs: -0.22%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 0.28% at 2,811.12 (24hrs: +0.96%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.95%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0101% (3.6869% annualized) on Binance
DXY is unchanged at 104.23
Gold is unchanged at $3,024.80/oz
Silver is up 0.5% at $34.17/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +0.65% at 38,027.29
Hang Seng closed +0.6% at 23,483.32
FTSE is unchanged at 8,668.40
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.65% at 5,439.52
DJIA closed on Tuesday unchanged at 42,587.50
S&P 500 closed +0.16 at 5,776.65
Nasdaq closed +0.46% at 18,271.86
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.14% at 25,339.50
S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.03% at 2,480.80
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 1 bps at 4.33%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.15% at 5,817.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.2% at 20,448.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.12% at 42,854.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.46 (-0.03%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02344 (-0.85%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 838 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $50.17
Total Fees: 13.1 BTC / $1,152,066
CME Futures Open Interest: 147,550 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 29.1 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 8.26%
Technical Analysis
The yen-dollar’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has crossed under its 200-day SMA, confirming a so-called death cross bearish momentum pattern.
It’s a sign of an impending rally in the yen, seen as a haven currency, which could destabilize risk assets, including cryptocurrency.
The yen-bullish pattern comes as talk of Bank of Japan rate increases gathers pace.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $341.81 (+1.81%), up 0.47% at $343.40 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $204.23 (+0.59%), down 0.11% at $204
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$18.65
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.25 (-2.46%), down 0.35% at $14.30
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.51 (-2.41%), down 0.12% at $8.50
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.66 (-6.98%), down 0.12% at $8.65
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.73 (-0.68%), down 0.11% at $8.72
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.65 (-4.05%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $42.38 (-1.17%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $56.04 (+6.46%), up 0.82% at $56.50
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: $26.8 million
Cumulative net flows: $36.24 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,115 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$3.3 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.43 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.415 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The chart shows represents the proportion of crypto addresses — or wallets — that have held their bitcoin for at least one year without any outgoing transactions.
The metric has turned up in recent weeks, rising from 61.8% to 63.4% in a sign of renewed holding sentiment.
While You Were Sleeping
Russia, Ukraine Agree to Sea, Energy Truce; Washington Seeks Easing of Sanctions (Reuters): Shortly after the Washington-brokered truce was announced, Moscow said the pause in maritime and energy attacks wouldn’t begin unless sanctions on certain Russian banks were removed.
Top Federal Reserve Official Says Market Angst Over Inflation Would Be ‘Red Flag’ (Financial Times): The Chicago Fed president said the central bank might delay rate cuts if investors start expecting inflation to stay high.
Movement’s MOVE Token Soars 25% as Strategic Reserve Is Unveiled After Malicious Market Maker Activity (CoinDesk): Movement is establishing a $38 million strategic reserve to buy its MOVE token using funds recovered from a market maker accused of breaching contract terms.
Peter Thiel-Backed Plasma Unveils ‘HotStuff-Inspired Consensus’ for High-Frequency Global Stablecoin Transfers (CoinDesk): Features include custom gas tokens, zero-charge USDT transfers and confidential transactions.
Celo Migration to Layer-2 Network Is Done, Bringing in New Era for the Blockchain (CoinDesk): Celo completed its transition from a layer-1 blockchain to an Ethereum layer-2 chain after a nearly two-year process.
Canada and India Look to Reset Ties in Counter to Trump’s Duties (Bloomberg): The two countries are reportedly considering mending their diplomatic rift, which began in September 2023, as they brace for the impact of potential new U.S. tariffs.
In the Ether
Crypto infrastructure provider StraitsX debuted its Singapore dollar-pegged stablecoin, XSGD, on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) to cater to growing demand for regulated multi-chain stablecoins supporting real-time cross-border payments.
Digital asset developers, fintechs firms and financial institutions can use XSGD to conduct cross-border transactions, settle transactions on-chain and create programmable financial flows. XGSD is being powered by XRPL, a decentralized public blockchain from Ripple.
StraitsX, a major payment institution licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, began issuing XSGD in 2020. The stablecoin pegged to the Singapore dollar is fully backed 1:1 by reserves held with DBS Bank and Standard Chartered.
As of writing, XSGD had a total supply of 14.12 million, with an onchain transaction count exceeding 8 billion. The stablecoin is available on Arbitrum, Avalanche, Ethereum, Polygon, Hedera and Zilliqa.
«At StraitsX, we’ve always approached stablecoins not just as digital representations of fiat, but as critical infrastructure for the future of financial markets. Launching XSGD on the XRP Ledger is a meaningful step toward that vision – an expansion of interoperability, programmability, and access across networks that were purpose-built for real-world value exchange,» Co-Founder and deputy of StaitsX, Liu Tianwei, told CoinDesk.
Regulated stablecoins like XSGD are better positioned to see increased adoption in the expected boom in cross-border economic activity in the coming years. For instance, per some estimates, cross-border e-commerce in Asia is expected to surpass $4 trillion by 2030. Meanwhile, global cross-border payments are projected to hit $250 trillion by 2027, according to a report published by Infosys Finacle last year.
The report mentioned Ripple while discussing various methods fintechs employ for money transfer. The report said that Ripple’s real-time settlement of funds «eliminates the need for pre-funding destination accounts and supports low-cost payments within seconds.»
Opening move
The debut of XSGD on the XRP Ledger marks the beginning of a series of upcoming rollouts outlined under the strategic partnership, the press release said.
In June, StraitsX plans to introduce a second phase focused on institutional applications, including programmable payouts, merchant settlements, and seamless compliance integrations for various financial workflows.
«StraitsX’s launch of XSGD on the XRP Ledger underscores that digital assets, including stablecoins, could play a pivotal role in payments» said Fiona Murray, managing director of APAC at Ripple.
«We are seeing a growing appetite for stablecoins like XSGD to support enterprise-grade use cases across payments, liquidity, and compliance-first infrastructure. Our collaboration with StraitsX to bring XSGD to the XRP Ledger supports our commitment to delivering regulated assets that can reshape cross-border payments and unlock value for financial institutions,» Murray added.
A key crypto bill has opened a rift among Senate Democrats as another big test approaches for the viability of legislation to regulate stablecoin issuers. Most expect the bill to clear a significant procedural vote on Monday night, but Democrats are split.
The Senate’s most prominent crypto critic, Massachusetts Democrat Elizabeth Warren, is leading a faction trying to dig in their heels on the bill, raising objections that include national security threats, consumer hazards and the corruption of a White House that’s conflicted because of President Donald Trump’s own digital assets business interests.
The other group, including Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, one of the bill’s primary backers, has argued that presidential conflicts are already illegal under the U.S. Constitution, and the bill doesn’t need to have specific constraints added to clarify that point. That side also praises a number of changes to the legislation to improve consumer protections and to partially address worries that large corporations will issue stablecoins — the steady, typically dollar-based tokens that underpin so much of the crypto markets’ transaction activity.
The bill is set for what’s known as a cloture vote on Monday night, which will decide whether it advances into a formal and time-limited period of debate before final consideration. Cloture tends to be the most difficult test for Senate legislation, because it requires 60 votes — much more than a simple majority. A previous version of the bill failed such a vote once before, when Democrats demanded more time to make changes.
The stablecoin bill is one of two highly significant U.S. legislative efforts that will finally establish a set of rules and system of oversight for crypto in the U.S., and many in the industry believe it’ll usher in a flood of interest from investors who’ve waited on the sidelines until the sector is completely regulated. The supporters of the stablecoin legislation have set it up for this vote, suggesting they were able to wrangle enough backers to triumph.
The current Senate bill — known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act — is worse than doing nothing, according to the arguments from the camp led by Warren, who is the ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee. «A strong bill would ensure that consumers enjoy the same consumer protections when using stablecoins as they do when using other payment systems, close loopholes that enable the illicit use of stablecoins by cartels, terrorists, and criminals, and reduce the risk that stablecoins take down our financial system,» according to a sheet issued on Monday by the committee’s Democratic staff. «The GENIUS Act does not meet those minimum standards.»
Gillibrand, however, said the bill has been written in a «truly bipartisan effort.»
«Stablecoins are already playing an important role in the global economy, and it is essential that the U.S. enact legislation that protects consumers, while also enabling responsible innovations,” the New York Democrat said in a statement last week.
Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, also explained his view in choosing to support the bill. “It sets high standards for issuers, limits big tech overreach and creates a safer, more transparent framework for digital assets,» he said in a statement. «It’s not perfect, but it’s far better than the status quo.”
Read More: U.S. Stablecoin Bill Could Clear Senate Next Week, Proponents Say
In the hours before the planned Monday vote, a coalition of 46 consumer, labor and advocacy groups continued objecting to the legislation, which has been overhauled repeatedly.
«A vote for this legislation would enable and condone cryptobusiness activities by the Trump administration, organization, and family that raise unprecedented concerns about presidential conflicts of interest, corruption, and the abuse of public office for private gain,» they wrote in a letter to the Senate leadership.
The crypto industry itself has come together to support the legislation, with various lobbyist groups publishing statements arguing lawmakers should advance the legislation. Stand With Crypto, a Coinbase-backed group focused on getting voters to support crypto issues, warned lawmakers in a statement Monday that their votes would go into its sometimes arbitrary assignment of grades for politicians’ crypto sentiment.
While the stablecoin bill has drawn some political heat, it’s widely expected to be the easier of the two crypto efforts on Capitol Hill. The legislation to establish U.S. market rules for crypto is much more complex. For both bills, the House of Representatives is also working on parallel efforts.
If the bill clears cloture, it could speed toward Senate passage in a matter of days. Jaret Seiberg, a policy analyst with TD Cowen, expects it to clear the Senate this week
“That means it could become law by summer as we see the House moving quickly on the bill,” he wrote in a note to clients.
Warren wrote her own letter on Monday to the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Department of Justice, pressing for answers about what’s being done about North Korean hackers who stole more than a billion dollars in assets from exchange Bybit earlier this year.
«These stolen assets have helped keep the regime afloat and supported continued investments in its nuclear and conventional weapons programs,» Warren and Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat, wrote to the Treasury secretary and attorney general. «Reports suggest there are potentially thousands of North Korean-affiliated crypto hackers around the globe.”
Cryptocurrencies regained footing on Monday after a rocky start to the trading session, mirroring a broader recovery in risk assets as traders digested Moody’s downgrade of U.S. government bonds.
Bitcoin BTC notched a strong rebound after slipping to as low as $102,000 early in the U.S. session, following its record weekly close at $106,600 overnight. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap climbed back to $105,000 in afternoon trading, up 0.4% over 24 hours. Ether ETH rose 1.2%, reclaiming the $2,500 level.
DeFi lending platform Aave AAVE outperformed most large-cap altcoins, while the majority of the broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index members still remained in the red despite advancing from their daily lows. Solana SOL, Avalanche AVAX and Polkadot DOT were down 2%-3%.
The bounce extended to U.S. stocks, too, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq erasing their morning decline.
The early pullback in crypto and stocks came after Moody’s late Friday downgraded the U.S. credit rating from its AAA status. The move rattled bond markets, pushing 30-year Treasury yields above 5% and the 10-year note to over 4.5%.
Still, some analysts downplayed the downgrade’s long-term impact on asset prices.
«What does [the downgrade] mean for markets? Longer-term – really nothing,» said Ram Ahluwalia, CEO of wealth management firm Lumida Wealth. He added that in the short term there might be some selling pressure centered on U.S. Treasuries due to large institutional investors rebalancing, as some of them are mandated to hold assets only in AAA-rated securities.
«Moody’s is the last of the three major rating agencies to downgrade U.S. debt. This was the opposite of a surprise – it was a long time coming,» Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, said in an X post. «That’s why stock investors don’t seem to care.»
Bitcoin targets $138K this year
While BTC hovers just below its January record prices, digital asset ETF issuer 21Shares sees more upside for this year.
«Bitcoin is on the verge of a breakout,» research strategist Matt Mena wrote in a Monday report. He argued that BTC’s current rally is driven not by retail mania, but by a confluence of structural forces, including institutional inflows, a historic supply crunch and improving macro conditions that suggests a more durable and mature path to fresh all-time highs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have consistently absorbed more BTC than is mined daily, tightening supply while major institutions, corporations such as Strategy and newcomer Twenty One Capital accumulate and even states explore creating strategic reserves.
These factors combined could lift BTC to $138,500 this year, Mena forecasted, translating to a roughly 35% rally for the largest crypto.
StraitsX Launches Its Singapore-Dollar Pegged Stablecoin, XSGD, on XRP Ledger
Senate Dems Gear Up Resistance as Stablecoin Bill Meets Test Most Think Will Succeed
Bitcoin Climbs to $105K; Crypto ETF Issuer Sees 35% Upside
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