Connect with us

Uncategorized

Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Faces Bearish June Seasonality as ETF Flows Slow

Published

on

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) and other major cryptocurrencies continue to offer little directional clarity to traders, with inflows into spot ETFs slowing during the seasonally bearish period.

According to 10x Research, June tends to be a mixed-to-negative month for the largest tokens. Bitcoin has averaged a 1.9% return in June over the past 10 years, evenly split between five positive and five negative occurrences. Ethereum’s ether (ETH) averaged an 11.7% decline, with only two out of the last seven Junes in the green. XRP has fared even worse, though SOL has been stronger.

The apathy is reflected in the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, which recorded net inflows in only two of the past five trading days. Inflows on Wednesday were just $87 million, a sharp decline from Tuesday’s $387 million, SoSoValue data show. Ether ETFs recorded a net inflow of $57 million, the least since May 21.

«The weakening pace of institutional flows confirms a loss of momentum — and makes us more cautious on the short-term outlook,» Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN, said in an email.

Other analysts, however, remain optimistic, citing the rapid pace of institutional adoption.

«Despite the seasonal summer lull, the structural backdrop remains intact,» QCP Capital said. «With both BTC and ETH emission rates now trailing global money supply growth, a long-term positive price drift appears increasingly probable. Fresh treasury buyers are absorbing supply.»

The firm also noted the relative strength in ether as the ETH-BTC ratio trades close to the recent range highs.

The crypto news flow over the past 24 hours has been positive. Circle, the issuer of the regulated USDC stablecoin, priced its initial public offering at $31 per share, above the expected range of $24 to $26. The company sold around 34 million shares in the offering for a valuation of $1.1 billion.

The California Assembly approved the AB-1052 bill, classifying long-inactive crypto assets as “unclaimed property” and allowing the state to hold them in custody.

Blockchain intelligence firm Arkham said that a whale address supposedly linked to Consensys purchased $320 million in ETH from Galaxy Digital and transferred it to a new address.

Economic developments, however, have been dismal. Three soft U.S. economic reports, including the Fed’s Beige book, sent the Treasury yields tumbling, reviving hopes for the Fed rate cut. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • June 5, 9:30 a.m.: Shares of Circle (CRCL), issuer of stablecoin USDC, begin trading on the NYSE. The IPO priced that stock at $31 apiece, valuing the company at $6.9 billion.
    • June 6: Sia (SC) is set to activate Phase 1 of its V2 hard fork, the largest upgrade in the project’s history. Phase 2 will get activated on July 6.
    • June 9, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable on «DeFi and the American Spirit»
    • June 10, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Final Services Committee hearing for Markup of Various Measures, including the crypto market structure bill, i.e. the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.
    • June 11, 7 a.m.: Stratis (STRAX) activates mainnet hard fork at block 2,587,200 to enable the Masternode Staking protocol.
    • June 16 (market open): 21Shares executes a 3-for-1 share split for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); ticker and NAV remain unchanged.
  • Macro
    • June 5, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 31.
      • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 235K vs. Prev. 240K
      • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1910K vs. Prev. 1919K
    • June 5: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets President Donald Trump in the Oval Office to discuss tariffs, defense, Ukraine.
    • June 6, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases April producer price inflation data.
      • PPI MoM Prev. -0.62%
      • PPI YoY Prev. 8.37%
    • June 6, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases May employment data .
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 7% vs. Prev. 6.9%
      • Employment Change Est. -15K vs. Prev. 7.4K
    • June 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May employment data.
      • Non Farm Payrolls Est. 130K vs. Prev. 177K
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.2%
      • Government Payrolls Prev. 10K
      • Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -1K vs. Prev. -1K
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • None in the near future.

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $54.40 million.
    • June 13: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.33% of its circulating supply worth $13.36 million.
    • June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $17.08 million.
    • June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $10.71 million.
    • June 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.91% of its circulating supply worth $32.91 million.
    • June 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 20.91% of its circulating supply worth $42.47 million.
    • June 17: ApeCoin (APE) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $11.02 million.
  • Token Launches
    • June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends
    • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN).

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • DEGO nosedived roughly 60% to $1.26 on June 4–5 after the BNB Chain-based Dego protocol said it would buy World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1, as a treasury reserve and seed a DEGO/USD1 pool on BNB Chain.
  • Chain sleuths found 93% of USD1’s circulating supply parked in just three wallets.
  • Traders are concerned the pair’s depth, and therefore DEGO’s new price floor, could be yanked at any moment, sparking “exit-liquidity” accusations.
  • Dego Finance said in a Thursday tweet that “fundamentals, tokenomics, long-term vision» were unchanged and pinned the price collapse on “short-term market psychology.»
  • The team claimed it is auditing on-chain flows and liaising with exchanges/market makers to dampen volatility.
  • Skeptics warned of “ghost liquidity” and urge the team to court more reputable stablecoins such as USDT, FDUSD and USDC before deploying treasury funds.
  • Dego will publish a post-mortem and treasury-transparency dashboard “within days,” host an AMA with core devs, and outline additional safeguards (e.g., time-locked treasury moves, multi-sig sign-offs) to rebuild confidence.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Growth in CME-listed BTC and ETH futures open interest has stagnated this month, leaving the annualized one-month basis between 5% and 10%.
  • The figures show that institutions have scaled back demand.
  • Binance’s 1000SHIB perpetual futures and BCH perpetual futures show negative funding rates in a sign of bearish bias. Other major tokens, including BTC and ETH, continue to trade with mildly bullish or positive funding rates.
  • On Deribit, the BTC call bias has weakened across multiple time frames. Still, higher strike BTC calls continue to dominate the 24-hour volume rankings.
  • Institutional flows on OTC network Paradigm featured outright put buying in June and July expiries and calendar spreads.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.25% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $104,909.52 (24hrs: -0.79%)
  • ETH is unchanged at $2,607.45 (24hrs: -1.02%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is unchanged at 3,086.55 (24hrs: +0.81%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 3.05%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0041% (4.4435% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is unchanged at 99.82
  • Gold futures are up 1.15% at $3,412.40/oz
  • Silver futures are up 3.61% at $35.76/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed -0.51% at 37,554.49
  • Hang Seng closed +1.07% at 23,906.97
  • FTSE is up 0.19% at 8,817.89
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.44% at 5,429.08
  • DJIA closed on Wednesday -0.22% at 42,427.74
  • S&P 500 closed unchanged at 5,970.81
  • Nasdaq Composite closed +0.32% at 19,460.49
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.37% at 26,329.00
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.71% at 2,560.51
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.35%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.07% at 5,985.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.08% at 21,784.5
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.12% at 42,550.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 64.16 (0.00%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02487 (-0.12%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 900 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $52.7
  • Total Fees: 4.7 BTC / $496,562
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 145,655 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 30.9 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.76%

Technical Analysis

10-year Treasury note yield

  • The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has dived out of an ascending trendline from early April lows.
  • The breakdown suggests more losses ahead, which could ease financial conditions, powering BTC higher.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $378.10 (-2.41%), +0.28% at $379.15 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $256 (-1.12%), +0.48% at $257.23
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.49 (+4.76%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.67 (+2.22%), -0.26% at $15.63
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.5 (+5.2%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.56 (+6.44%), +0.64% at $12.64
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.53 (+3.47%), -0.21% at $9.51
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $19.19 (+7.09%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.76 (+0.51%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.93 (-9.78%), +7.43% at $28.93

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $87 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $44.55 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.20 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $57 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $3.30 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.73 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

BTC leads gold and other traditional assets in terms of bullish expectations. (Bitwise)

  • Bitcoin is expected to create several times more wealth for holders than any other asset, including gold, over the next 10 years, according to Bitwise.
  • Prices are reflexive, meaning expectations of higher valuations can actually draw buyers, leading to a self-fulfilling cycle.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

While the US Fed is ignoring demands for rate cuts, Europe is doing the opposite.“We are going to change history by embracing the next phase of the internet.”President Trump proposes ELIMINATING the debt ceiling:Square CEO Jack Dorsey pays for food with Bitcoin at Steak ’n Shake.Global Central Banks are loading up on Gold and the majority of purchases are going undeclared

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Ваш адрес email не будет опубликован. Обязательные поля помечены *

Uncategorized

Litecoin Slips Below $86 as Resistance Holds; Traders Watch Bitcoin Dominance

Published

on

By

Litecoin (LTC) tried to punch above $88 during Monday’s trading session, but met a wall of sell orders near that level.

The token has since retreated to $85.21, down 3.17% since the session’s peak and 1.5% in the last 24-hour period. That stumble erased the week’s slim gains and set a new line in the sand for bulls.

The drop came at a time in which bitcoin (BTC) has been its dominance increase, while its volatility dropped below the 40 mark in a potential sign of incoming action.

Technical Analysis Overview

Litecoin’s price swung significantly in the last 24-hour period, covering a $3.05 range, or roughly 3.5%. The token encountered stiff resistance between $88.00 and $88.42, where sellers stepped in heavily, particularly during late evening trading hours, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model.

After peaking, LTC reversed lower and found new support at $85.37. The steepest drop was accompanied by the session’s highest trading volume of over 180,000 tokens, signaling strong bearish sentiment.

Short-term trading saw additional volatility. In the last few hours of trading, LTC spiked from $85.65 to $86.05, a 0.47% jump, on a burst of buying. But momentum quickly reversed, sending prices back down to $85.53 on another volume spike.

This cemented resistance near $86.05 and reinforced the new support level at $85.37, leaving Litecoin at $85.42 as the session ended. Traders are watching these levels closely for clues on whether the asset will stage a recovery or slip lower in the days ahead.

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Industry’s PAC Keeps Seeking to Add Allies as Congress Hashes Out Crypto Legislation

Published

on

By

The crypto industry’s political-finance arm, the towering campaign-funding entity known as Fairshake, dropped another $1 million into the coffers of a special-election candidate hoping to replace a Virginia Democrat who died in office, Representative Gerald Connolly.

The candidate favored by the industry’s chief political action committee, James Walkinshaw, won the Democrats’ so-called firehouse primary over the weekend, in which the party conducted its own polling to determine its chosen candidate among a field of nine. The general election to formally select the Fairfax County region’s next member of Congress is set for Sept. 9, though the Democrat incumbent took about two thirds of the vote in the regular election last year, giving Walkinshaw a heavy advantage.

«We look forward to James joining the growing, bipartisan coalition in Congress that understands the importance of securing America’s leadership in the next generation of technology,» said Josh Vlasto, a Fairshake spokesman, in a statement. He argued that the race again demonstrated that the electorate isn’t moved by critics who attempt to tarnish candidates who show support for the sector and are backed by its campaign resources, as at least one of Walkinshaw’s opponents sought to do.

Fairshake (and its affiliate super PACs, Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress) rose into prominence in the 2024 congressional elections as it amassed a huge war chest from major digital assets businesses, including Coinbase, Ripple and a16z. It devoted its campaign spending in outsized chunks that in some cases dwarfed what was spent by the opponents of the group’s chosen candidates. As a result, Fairshake added a long list of winners to the ranks of Congress’ crypto supporters in those elections, but it has continued its strategy in special elections as one-off contests seek to fill vacated seats such as Connolly’s.

In the case of Walkinshaw, Connolly’s former chief of staff, the spending came from Protect Progress, which focuses on Democrat candidates. While his former boss had voted routinely against crypto issues, Walkinshaw’s campaign site says the candidate favors an «embrace of the next generation of technology,» including blockchain, which the campaign said «can reduce administrative costs for businesses and lower fees for consumers.»

«Congress should establish modern, risk-based regulatory frameworks that support responsible innovation and prevent abuse,» according to Walkinshaw’s website.

The super PAC still has about $116 million on hand as the 2026 congressional election cycle approaches next year, Vlasto said. Current members of Congress it supported in the past round are already at work on major crypto bills that have been advancing this year.

Fairshake makes massive «independent expenditures» in political races, meaning their outside money buys advertising without approval or communication from the candidate. Though it represents crypto interests, the advertising purchased by the group almost never mentions the topic of digital assets, instead focusing on whatever political points are most likely to garner a win.

Read More: Crypto’s Fairshake Notches Latest Wins in Florida Congressional Races

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

XRPL EVM Sidechain Goes Live, Unlocking Ethereum Dapps in XRP Ecosystem

Published

on

By

Ripple officially introduced the XRP Ledger’s Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) sidechain to the mainnet in an bid to improve the ecosystem’s interoperability and allow developers to deploy their Ethereum-based decentralized applications (dapps) with the XRPL.

The development adds EVM-compatible smart contracts while maintaining a connection to the XRPL, giving developers access to the ecosystem at a low cost, Ripple said in a blog post. It is designed to eliminate the trade-off between EVM compatibility and XRPL’s own advantages, opening the door for dapps to lean into XRP’s payments infrastructure.

“The XRPL EVM Sidechain introduces a flexible environment for developers to deploy EVM-based applications, while maintaining a connection to the XRPL’s efficiency,” David Schwartz, Ripple’s chief technology officer and a co-creater of XRPL, said in the post. “It extends the capabilities of the ecosystem without changing the fundamentals that make the XRPL reliable.”

The sidechain operates as a separate blockchain that is parallel and connected to the XRP Ledger over the Axelar bridge, an interoperability protocol. XRPL’s native token, XRP (XRP), will serve as the native gas token for the sidechain.

The chain is designed specifically for developers, as they can now build and deploy their EVM-based applications, while accessing XRPL’s network of over 6 million wallet holders, Ripple said. The sidechain is planned to eventually also integrate with Wormhole, another interoperability protocol, allowing even more developers to access the XRP ecosystem.

Read more: Ripple Integrates Wormhole With XRP Ledger to Power Institutional Multichain Moves

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.