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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Buzzes With Anticipation Before Trump’s Inauguration

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto world is buzzing as President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration nears. Bitcoin is holding above $100,000 and altcoins like SOL, ADA, LINK, XRP and LTC are shining as it’s not just about a potential strategic bitcoin reserve anymore. Reports suggest Trump could announce crypto as a policy priority.

Things are heating up for ether too. A blockchain address associated with Trump’s World Liberty Finance (WLF) project snapped up nearly $10 million of ETH this week, according to Arkham Intelligence. And keep your eyes on layer-1 blockchain Near Protocol’s NEAR. The token’s supply dynamics look bullish, with the ratio of staked to unstaked NEAR rising, according to data source Flipside.

Overall, the outlook for the crypto market is bullish, as Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report has eased inflation concerns, allowing traders to focus on Trump’s swearing-in. On-chain analysis from 21Shares shows there’s still plenty of upside left for BTC.

That said, consider the possibility of a price drop if a major announcement doesn’t materialize on Trump’s first day.

«The macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive, with unemployment trending downward, inflation showing signs of easing, and the market riding a wave of enthusiasm tied to Trump’s inauguration,» Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, said. «We maintain a bullish outlook for Q1, though a correction could happen this week if the new administration doesn’t outline a solid action plan.»

Note that BTC is trading at a discount on Coinbase relative to Binance in a sign of weak demand from U.S. investors. Plus, Arkham Intelligence data shows a whale moved BTC worth over $1 billion to Coinbase on Thursday. Transfers to exchanges typically represent an investor intention to sell.

And watch out for inflation worries creeping back. The U.S. PPI, which shows price pressures building up in the pipeline, rose above the CPI in December for the first time since 2022. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto

Jan. 17: Oral arguments at the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia in KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC, where the CFTC is appealing the district court’s ruling favoring Kalshi’s Congressional Control Contracts.

Jan. 23: First deadline for a decision by the SEC on NYSE Arca’s Dec. 3 proposal to list and trade shares of Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL), a closed-end trust, as an ETF.

Jan. 25: First deadline for SEC decisions on proposals for four new spot solana ETFs: Bitwise Solana ETF, Canary Solana ETF, 21Shares Core Solana ETF and VanEck Solana Trust, which are all sponsored by Cboe BZX Exchange.

Feb. 4: MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) reports Q4 earnings before the market opens.

Macro

Jan. 17, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases December’s Monthly New Residential Construction report.

Building Permits (Preliminary) Est. 1.46M vs. Prev. 1.493M.

Building Permits MoM (Preliminary) Prev. 5.2%.

Housing Starts Est. 1.32M vs. Prev. 1.289M.

Housing Starts MoM Prev. -1.8%.

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

ApeChain is voting on a revamped governance process for 75% of the on-chain treasury to be directed to DAO treasury contract and the remaining 25% to the Ape Foundation for administrative and support purposes. Voting began Jan. 17 and will last for 13 days.

The Aave DAO is discussing a joint incentive program with Polygon that would require $3 million to enhance liquidity and adoption of Aave on the Polygon blockchain.

Unlocks

Jan. 17: ApeCoin (APE) to unlock 2.16% of its circulating supply, worth $18.1 million

Jan. 17: QuantixAI (QAI) to unlock 4.79% of its circulating supply, worth $21.28 million

Jan. 18: Ondo (ONDO) to unlock 134% of its circulating supply, worth $2.19 billion.

Jan. 21: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.6% of circulating supply worth $76 million.

Token Launches

Jan. 17: Solv Protocol (SOLV) to be listed on Binance.

Conferences:

Day 12 of 14: Starknet, an Ethereum layer 2, is holding its Winter Hackathon (online).

Day 5 of 12: Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025 (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)

Jan. 18: BitcoinDay (Naples, Florida)

Jan. 20-24: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland)

Jan. 21: Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025

Jan. 25-26: Catstanbul 2025 (Istanbul). The first community conference for Jupiter, a decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator built on Solana.

Jan 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)

Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)

Feb. 18-20: Consensus Hong Kong

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

Litecoin (LTC) led the pack over the past 24 hours after a Nasdaq 19B-4 filing paved the way to roll out an LTC exchange traded-fund (ETF). The token rose 17% to overtake bitcoin cash (BCH) in terms of market cap.

Ethereum developers confirmed that the mainnet Pectra upgrade will take place in March, with a series of hard forks planned on Ethereum testnets in February. The upgrade will improve wallet functionality and increase the native staking limit to 2,048 ETH from 32 ETH. This increase means larger stakers like Coinbase and restaking protocols will be able to control fewer validators, reducing complexity. Coinbase currently has tens of thousands of validators.

Altcoin whales are aggressively buying solana (SOL) in the lead-up to Donald Trump’s inauguration. One particular wallet, reported by Lookonchain, bought $2.49 million worth of SOL and withdrew an additional $3.94 million worth out of Binance. It then deposited a total of 144,817 SOL ($30.4 million) into lending platform Kamino before borrowing $20 million of stablecoins. This is effectively taking a long position on SOL as when the value of the underlying asset rises, the user will have to pay less stablecoin.

Derivatives Positioning

Litecoin is the best-performing coin in terms of futures open interest growth and positive CVD readings that imply net buying pressure.

HYPE stands out as overheated, with annualized funding rates in excess of 100%, according to Velo Data. The elevated funding rate indicates overcrowding in bullish bets.

BTC’s annualized one-month futures basis on the CME has climbed above 12%, surpassing ETH’s 11%. BTC, ETH CME futures open interest, however, remains little changed and well below December highs.

BTC, ETH options on Deribit show bias for calls.

Market Movements:

BTC is down 2.17% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $102,319.71 (24hrs: +3.15%)

ETH is up 3.13% at $3,424.04 (24hrs: +3.22%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 1.36% at 3,960.57 (24hrs: +4.36%)

Ether staking yield is unchanged at 3.1%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0092% (10.12% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at 109.02

Gold is up 0.67% at $2,730.60/oz

Silver is down 1.3% at $31.28/oz

Nikkei 225 closed -0.31% to 38,451.46

Hang Seng closed +0.31% to 19584.06,

FTSE is up 1.06% at 8,481.19

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.66% at 5,140.87

DJIA closed on Thursday -0.16% to 43,153.13

S&P 500 closed -0.21% to 5,937.34

Nasdaq closed -0.89% to 19,338.29

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.23% to 24846.2

S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.41% to 2,230.95

U.S. 10-year Treasury is down 2 bp at 4.6%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 5,993.50

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.32% at 21,332.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 43,496.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 57.49

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.0334

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 784 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $57.0

Total Fees: 7.34 BTC/ $731,223

CME Futures Open Interest: 178,755 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 37.8 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 10.75%

Technical Analysis

The dollar index’s (DXY) rally has stalled, but the bullish trendline characterizing the uptrend from 100 is still intact.

A renewed bounce from the trendline support could create a headwind to risk assets.

Crypto Equities

MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $367 (+1.77%), up 3.26% at $378.98 in pre-market.

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $281.63 (+2.44%), up 2.68% at $289.28 in pre-market.

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$28.77(+3.01%).

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.3 (+0.83%), up 3.17% at $18.88 in pre-market.

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.29 (-1.29%), up 3.24% at $13.72 in pre-market.

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.63 (+0.69%), up 1.71% at $14.88 in pre-market.

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.18 (-0.18%), up 3.58% at $11.58 in pre-market.

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $24.60 (+0.12%), up 2.93% at $25.32 in pre-market.

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $58.24 (+3.8%), up 2.76% at $59.85 in pre-market.

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $37.87 (+7.1%), up 5.62% at $40 in pre-market.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $527.9 million

Cumulative net flows: $38.04 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.14 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: $166.59 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.64 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.57 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

The chart shows trends in NEAR’s circulating supply staked or locked in the blockchain in return for rewards, versus supply unstaked.

The rate at which NEAR holders are staking their coins is increasing, creating a bullish demand-supply dynamic for the token.

While You Were Sleeping

Bitcoin’s ‘Coinbase Premium’ Muted Amid Reports Trump Plans to Designate Crypto a National Policy (CoinDesk): President-elect Trump is reportedly planning to prioritize cryptocurrency with an executive order, but the BTC price differential between Coinbase and Binance signals a lack of enthusiasm among U.S. investors ahead of his Jan. 20 inauguration.

XRP Volume Overtakes Bitcoin on Coinbase as U.S. Investor Interest Grows (CoinDesk): XRP accounted for 25% of Coinbase’s trading volume in the past 24 hours, driven by rising U.S. interest and speculation about an XRP ETF.

Bitcoin Miners Have Started 2025 on a Strong Footing, JPMorgan Says (CoinDesk): JPMorgan notes that 12 of 14 monitored mining stocks delivered stronger returns than bitcoin early this year, supported by a 51% annual hashrate surge.

BOJ Likely to Keep Hawkish Policy Pledge, Raise Rates Next Week, Sources Say (Reuters): Markets predict an 80% likelihood the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate to 0.5% next week, the highest since 2008.

China Hits 5% GDP Target but Trump Tariffs Threaten Further Growth (Bloomberg): China achieved 5% GDP growth in 2024, driven by stimulus and strong exports. Upcoming U.S. tariffs and weak domestic demand may hinder future progress.

European Markets Near an All-Time High Ahead of Earnings Season (Euronews): European stocks rose this week, with Germany’s DAX hitting record highs over the past two sessions. The Euro Stoxx 600 gained 0.81%, driven by strong luxury and technology earnings and expectations of looser ECB policy.

In the Ether

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AI, Mining News: GPU Gold Rush: Why Bitcoin Miners Are Powering AI’s Expansion

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When Core Scientific signed a $3.5 billion deal to host artificial intelligence (AI) data centers earlier this year, it wasn’t chasing the next crypto token — it was chasing a steadier paycheck. Once known for its vast fleets of bitcoin mining rigs, the company is now part of a growing trend: converting energy-intensive mining operations into high-performance AI facilities.

Bitcoin miners like Core, Hut 8 (HUT) and TeraWulf (WULF) are swapping ASIC machines — the dedicated bitcoin mining computer — for GPU clusters, driven by the lure of AI’s explosive growth and the harsh economics of crypto mining.

Power play

It’s no secret that bitcoin mining requires an extensive amount of energy, which is the biggest cost of minting a new digital asset.

Back in the 2021 bull run, when the Bitcoin network’s hashrate and difficulty were low, miners were making out like bandits with margins as much as 90%. Then came the brutal crypto winter and the halving event, which slashed the mining reward in half. In 2025, with surging hashrate and energy prices, miners are now struggling to survive with razor-thin margins.

However, the need for power—the biggest input cost—became a blessing in disguise for these miners, who needed a different strategy to diversify their revenue sources.

Due to rising competition for mining, the miners continued to procure more machines to stay afloat, and with it came the need for more megawatts of electricity at a cheaper price. Miners invested heavily in securing these low-cost energy sources, such as hydroelectric or stranded natural gas sites, and developed expertise in managing high-density cooling and electrical systems—skills honed during the crypto boom of the early 2020s.

This is what captured the attention of AI and cloud computing firms. While bitcoin relies on specialized ASICs, AI thrives on versatile GPUs like Nvidia’s H100 series, which require similar high-power environments but for parallel processing tasks in machine learning. Instead of building out data centers from scratch, taking over mining infrastructure, which already has power ready, became a faster way to grow an increasing appetite for AI-related infrastructure.

Essentially, these miners aren’t just pivoting—they’re retrofitting.

The cooling systems, low-cost energy contracts, and power-dense infrastructure they built during the crypto boom now serve a new purpose: feeding the AI models of companies like OpenAI and Google.

Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.

Terraforming AI

Bitcoin mining has effectively «terraformed» the terrain for AI compute by building out scalable, power-efficient infrastructure that AI desperately needs.

As Nicholas Gregory, Board Director at Fragrant Prosperity, noted, «It can be argued bitcoin paved the way for digital dollar payments as can be seen with USDT/Tether. It also looks like bitcoin terraformed data centres for AI/GPU compute.»

This pre-existing «terraforming» allows miners to retrofit facilities quickly, often in under a year, compared to the multi-year timelines for traditional data center builds. Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.

Higher returns

In practice, it means miners can flip a facility in less than a year—far faster than the multi-year timeline of a new data center.

But AI isn’t a cheap upgrade.

Bitcoin mining setups are relatively modest, with costs ranging from $300,000 to $800,000 per megawatt (MW) excluding ASICs, allowing for quick scalability in response to market cycles. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure demands significantly higher capex due to the need for advanced liquid cooling, redundant power systems, and the GPUs themselves, which can cost tens of thousands per unit and face global supply shortages. Despite the steeper upfront costs, AI offers miners up to 25 times more revenue per kilowatt-hour than bitcoin mining, making the pivot economically compelling amid rising energy prices and declining crypto profitability.

A niche industry worth billions

As AI continues to surge and crypto profits tighten, bitcoin mining could become a niche game—one reserved for energy-rich regions or highly efficient players, especially as the next in 2028 could render many operations unprofitable without breakthroughs in efficiency or energy costs.

While projections show the global crypto mining market growing to $3.3 billion by 2030, at a modest 6.9% CAGR, the billions would be overshadowed by AI’s exponential expansion. According to KBV Research, the global AI in mining market is projected to reach $435.94 billion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.6%.

With investors already seeing dollar signs in this shift, the broader trend suggests the future is either a hybrid or a full conversion to AI, where stable contracts with hyperscalers promise longevity over crypto’s boom-bust cycles.

This evolution not only repurposes idle assets but also underscores how yesterday’s crypto frontiers are forging tomorrow’s AI empires.

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Bitcoin Climbs as Economy Cracks — Is it Bullish or Bearish?

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Bitcoin (BTC) is about 4% higher than it was a week ago—good news for the digital asset but bad news for the economy.

The recent negative tone of the economic data points from last week raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday, making riskier assets such as stocks and bitcoin more attractive.

Let’s recap the data that backs up that thesis.

The most important one, the U.S. CPI figures, came out on Thursday. The headline rate was slightly higher than expected, a sign inflation might be stickier than anticipated.

Before that, we had Tuesday’s revisions to job data. The world’s largest economy created almost 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ended March, the largest downward revision in the country’s history.

The figures followed the much-watched monthly jobs report, which was released the previous Friday. The U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to 263,000 — the highest since October 2021.

US Initial Jobless Claims (TradingEconomics)

Higher inflation and fewer jobs are not great for the U.S. economy, so it’s no surprise that the word «stagflation» is starting to creep back into macroeconomic commentary.

Against this backdrop, bitcoin—considered a risk asset by Wall Street—continued grinding higher, topping $116,000 on Friday and almost closing the CME futures gap at 117,300 from August.

Not a surprise, as traders are also bidding up the biggest risk assets: equities. Just take a look at the S&P 500 index, which closed at a record for the second day on the hope of a rate cut.

So how should traders think about BTC’s price chart?

To this chart enthusiast, price action remains constructive, with higher lows forming from the September bottom of $107,500. The 200-day moving average has climbed to $102,083, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — often used as support in bull markets — rose to a record $109,668.

Short Term Realized Price (Glassnode)

Bitcoin-linked stocks: A mixed bag

However, bitcoin’s weekly positive price action didn’t help Strategy (MSTR), the largest of the bitcoin treasury companies, whose shares were about flat for the week. Its rivals performed better: MARA Holdings (MARA) 7% and XXI (CEP) 4%.

Strategy (MSTR) has underperformed bitcoin year-to-date and continues to hover below its 200-day moving average, currently $355. At Thursday’s close of $326, it’s testing a key long-term support level seen back in September 2024 and April 2025.

The company’s mNAV premium has compressed to below 1.5x when accounting for outstanding convertible debt and preferred stock, or roughly 1.3x based solely on equity value.

MSTR (TradingView)

Preferred stock issuance remains muted, with only $17 million tapped across STRK and STRF this week, meaning that the bulk of at-the-money issuance is still flowing through common shares. According to the company, options are now listed and trading for all four perpetual preferred stocks, a development that could provide additional yield on the dividend.

Bullish catalysts for crypto stocks?

The CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders expect a 25 basis-point U.S. interest-rate cut in September and have priced in a total of three rate cuts by year-end.

That’s a sign risk sentiment could tilt back toward growth and crypto-linked equities, underlined by the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly breaking below 4% this week.

US 10-year (TradingView)

Still, the dollar index (DXY) continues to hold multiyear support, a potential inflection point worth watching.

A chart of the DXY index

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Fed’s Sept. 17 Rate Cut Could Spark Short-Term Jitters but Supercharge Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks Long Term

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Investors are counting down to the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 meeting, where markets expect a quarter-point rate cut that could trigger short-term volatility but potentially fuel longer-term gains across risk assets.

The economic backdrop highlights the Fed’s delicate balancing act.

According to the latest CPI report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, lifting the annual CPI rate to 2.9% from 2.7% in July, as shelter, food, and gasoline pushed costs higher. Core CPI also climbed 0.3%, extending its steady pace of recent months.

Producer prices told a similar story: per the latest PPI report released on Wednesday, the headline PPI index slipped 0.1% in August but remained 2.6% higher than a year earlier, while core PPI advanced 2.8%, the largest yearly increase since March. Together, the reports underscore stubborn inflationary pressure even as growth slows.

The labor market has softened further.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August, with federal government and energy sector job losses offsetting modest gains in health care. Unemployment held at 4.3%, while labor force participation remained stuck at 62.3%.

Revisions showed June and July job growth was weaker than initially reported, reinforcing signs of cooling momentum. Average hourly earnings still rose 3.7% year over year, keeping wage pressures alive.

Bond markets have adjusted accordingly. The 2-year Treasury yield sits at 3.56%, while the 10-year is at 4.07%, leaving the curve modestly inverted. Futures traders see a 93% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch.

If the Fed limits its move to just 25 bps, investors may react with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” response, since markets have already priced in relief.

Equities are testing record levels.

Equities are testing record levels. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,584 after rising 1.6% for the week, its best since early August. The index’s one-month chart shows a strong rebound from its late-August pullback, underscoring bullish sentiment heading into Fed week.

S&P 500 One-Month Chart From Google Finance

The Nasdaq Composite also notched five straight record highs, ending at 22,141, powered by gains in megacap tech stocks, while the Dow slipped below 46,000 but still booked a weekly advance.

Crypto and commodities have rallied alongside.

Bitcoin is trading at $115,234, below its Aug. 14 all-time high near $124,000 but still firmly higher in 2025, with the global crypto market cap now $4.14 trillion.

Bitcoin One-Month Price Chart From CoinDesk Data

Gold has surged to $3,643 per ounce, near record highs, with its one-month chart showing a steady upward trajectory as investors price in lower real yields and seek inflation hedges.

One-Month Gold Price Chart From TradingView

Gold has climbed steadily toward record highs, while bitcoin has consolidated below its August peak, reflecting ongoing demand for alternative stores of value.

Historical precedent supports the cautious optimism.

Analysis from the Kobeissi Letter — reported in an X thread posted Saturday — citing Carson Research, shows that in 20 of 20 prior cases since 1980 where the Fed cut rates within 2% of S&P 500 all-time highs, the index was higher one year later, averaging gains of nearly 14%.

The shorter term is less predictable: in 11 of those 22 instances, stocks fell in the month following the cut. Kobeissi argues this time could follow a similar pattern — initial turbulence followed by longer-term gains as rate relief amplifies the momentum behind assets like equities, bitcoin, and gold.

The broader setup explains why traders are watching the Sept. 17 announcement closely.

Cutting rates while inflation edges higher and stocks hover at records risks denting credibility, yet staying on hold could spook markets that have already priced in easing. Either way, the Fed’s message on growth, inflation, and its policy outlook will likely shape the trajectory of markets for months to come.

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