Uncategorized
Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Bulls, Remember to Zoom Out When in Doubt
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market is looking to maintain the <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/11/bitcoin-crosses-above-101-k-as-xrp-ai-tokens-lead-crypto-rally» target=»_blank»>bullish momentum ignited by</a> Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report, which matched estimates and cleared the path for another <a href=»https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-cautious-fed-on-track-for-one-last-2024-cut-followed-by-a-slowing-down-in-2025-144848267.html» target=»_blank»>Federal Reserve rate cut next week</a>.
BTC has retaken $100,000 and ether is again eyeing $4,000. A number of tokens, including AAVE and LINK, are trading 10% higher on the back of accumulation by wallets tied to World Liberty Financial, the project supported by President-elect Donald Trump’s family.
The key question now is whether BTC’s rally will be long-lasting. It could be, thanks to bitcoin’s consistent price <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/06/bitcoins-coinbase-premium-jumps-to-two-month-high-as-prices-top-71k-amid-trumps-early-lead» target=»_blank»>premium on Coinbase</a> compared with global exchanges and healthier leverage levels in the broader market. The upside may be capped, however, if the producer price index shows hotter inflation in the pipeline.
«Any upside surprise — and what it means for next Friday’s release of the core PCE deflator — could prove a minor dollar positive,» ING said.
For cues on whether $100K is a major top, my advice is simple: when in doubt, zoom out.
At $100,000, the annualized three-month BTC futures basis on major exchanges hovers around 15%, way below the 30%-plus witnessed at the height of 2021’s bull market. That’s a sign the gain is driven by genuine buying in the spot market, which is longer-lasting than speculative leverage-led bull runs.
Zooming out also brings the second half of 2021 into the frame. That’s when college kids in their late teens worldwide traded tokens like DOT, SOL, ETH and other cryptocurrencies without any know-how of their use case.
It’s also when the bull market topped.
Fast forward to now, and main street is silent on crypto. Remember what Leonardo Di Caprio said in The Wolf of Wall Street: «By the time you read about it in The Wall Street Journal, it’s already too late.»
If that’s not enough, the $100,000 milestone is also marked by a rise in institutional participation and <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/12/09/crypto-groups-push-ads-letters-to-oppose-democrat-s-sec-commissioner-nomination» target=»_blank»>active lobbying</a> by crypto community for favorable regulatory environment.
Speaking of bull market continuation, ether looks primed to move above $5,000 as booming on-chain activity burns more of the token, reducing supply in the market, according to CryptoQuant.
«According to ETH’s realized price—the average price at which holders purchased their ETH—the current upper limit for ETH’s price stands around $5.2k,» the firm told CoinDesk.
The bullish outlook for ether is generally seen as good news for other altcoins too, although, according to Delphi Digital, the token supply is «too damn high,» thanks to projects like pump.fun. The resulting demand-supply imbalance makes finding the alpha that much more challenging in the altcoin sector. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Dec. 13: Nasdaq announces its annual changes to the Nasdaq-100 index. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, is widely expected to be added.
Dec. 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) Q4 FY 2024 earnings. EPS Est. $-0.18 vs Prev. $-1.02.
Macro
Dec. 12, 8:15 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) announces its <a href=»https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/activities/mopo/html/index.en.html» target=»_blank»>monetary policy decision</a> (three key interest rates), followed by a <a href=»https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/html/index.en.html» target=»_blank»>press conference</a> at 8:45 a.m.
Deposit facility interest rate Est. 3.0% vs Prev. 3.25%.
Main refinancing operations interest rate Est. 3.15% vs Prev. 3.4%.
Marginal lending facility interest rate Prev. 3.65%.
Dec. 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the <a href=»https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf» target=»_blank»>Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report </a>for the week ended Dec. 7. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 220K vs Prev. 224K.
Dec. 16, 9:45 a.m.: December’s <a href=»https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases» target=»_blank»>S&P Global Flash US PMI </a>data is released. Composite PMI Prev. 54.9.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
EigenLayer to deploy Rewards v2 upgrade on Holesky testnet following governance vote. Stakers and operators can collect multiple rewards at once, saving on transaction costs.
Moonriver’s MR64 proposal meets quorum and would upgrade tokenomics by redirecting 80% of token inflation to the treasury to fund ecosystem growth and operations.
Synapse puts up SIP-41 for voting, and proposes a $3.5 million buyback of SYN tokens over three months. Voting is currently live.
Unlocks
Axie Infinity to unlock 815,000 AXS, worth $6 million at current prices, at 8:10 a.m.
Conferences:
Day 4 of 4: <a href=»https://adfw.com/» target=»_blank»>Abu Dhabi Finance Week 2024</a> (Abu Dhabi, UAE)
Day 4 of 5: <a href=»https://www.blockchainweek.lu/» target=»_blank»>Luxembourg Blockchain Week 2024</a>
Day 1 of 2: <a href=»https://www.globalblockchainshow.com/» target=»_blank»>Global Blockchain Show</a> (Dubai, UAE)
Day 1 of 3: <a href=»https://www.taipeiblockchainweek.com/» target=»_blank»>Taipei Blockchain Week 2024</a> (Taipei, Taiwan)
Dec. 13: <a href=»https://www.limitlesscrypto.com/» target=»_blank»>Limitless Crypto 2024</a> (San Juan, Puerto Rico)
Jan. 13 — 24: <a href=»https://web3fest.ch/swiss-web3fest/» target=»_blank»>Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025</a> (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)
Dec. 16 — 17: <a href=»https://theblockchainassociation.org/policy-summit-2024/» target=»_blank»>Blockchain Association’s Policy Summit</a> (Washington D.C.)
Jan. 17: <a href=»https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/about/clubs-and-associations/institutions/entrepreneur-association-ea/unchained» target=»_blank»>Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025</a> (Los Angeles)
Jan. 18: <a href=»https://bitcoinday.io/» target=»_blank»>BitcoinDay</a> (Napes, Florida)
Jan. 20 — 24: <a href=»https://www.weforum.org/meetings/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2025/» target=»_blank»>The 2025 Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum</a> (Davos, Switzerland)
Jan. 21: <a href=»https://www.tokenizationsummit.de/eng» target=»_blank»>Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025</a>
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
An AI agent token fashioned after venture fund a16z has flipped sector leader goat (GOAT) to become the most valued in its category.
Ai16z, a fund based on AI-based trading signals, has crossed an $850 million market capitalization to flip GOAT, which kickstarted the AI agents sector in October. Holders of AI16Z tokens pitch ideas to «AI Marc,» an AI agent modeled after Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) partner Marc Andreessen, to influence and suggest investment decisions.
The fund holds upward of $10 million from 30,000 unique “partners,” a feat it has achieved in a little over a month since going live.
The AI16Z price has surged 77% in the past seven days and more than tripled in the past 14 days, <a href=»https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ai16z» target=»_blank»>CoinGecko data shows</a>. That’s more than GOAT and other AI agent tokens that function solely as memes or online chatbots.
The action shows the market’s evolving preferences for projects offering entertainment value and tangible utility — where technical projects masquerading as memes may continue to attract more demand in the coming months.
“$ai16z flipping $goat is a huge signal for the AI agent sector,” crypto trader @Defi0xJeff wrote in <a href=»https://x.com/Defi0xJeff/status/1866537754798284916″ target=»_blank»>an X post</a>. “It shows how the new generation of agents is progressing at a much faster pace than the old guard. This is bullish not just for $ai16z but for the entire ecosystem.”
Derivatives Positioning
BTC and ETH implied volatility term structures have steepened alongside price rises.
Calls have become pricier than puts as BTC’s move back above $100,000 has reduced fears of a protracted pullback.
A market participant bought a large calendar spread by buying the $110K strike call expiring Jan. 3 while selling the $100K call expiring Dec. 27. The strategy aims to profit from the price decay in the Jan. 27 expiry while being protected from an upside volatility explosion.
In ETH, the notable trade was a bull call spread at $4,300 and $4,500 strikes.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 3.64% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday to $100,599 (24hrs: +2.05%)
ETH is up 6.9% at $3,921.91 (24hrs: +5.41%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 2.14% to 3,905.81 (24hrs: +5.52%)
Ether staking yield is down 30 bps to 3.17%
BTC funding rate is at 0.01% (10.95% annualized) on Binance
DXY is unchanged at 106.63
Gold is up 0.49% at $2,747.10/oz
Silver is up 1.47% to $33.04/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +1.21% at 39,849.14
Hang Seng closed +1.2% at 20,397.05
FTSE is up 0.25% at 8,322.22
Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 4,962.71
DJIA closed on Wednesday -0.22% at 44,148.56
S&P 500 closed +0.82% at 6,084.19
Nasdaq closed +1.77% at 20,034.89
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.6% at 25,657.70
S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.55% at 2,398.16
U.S. 10-year Treasury is unchanged at 4.3%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.16% to 6,082.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.24% to 21,741.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.19% at 44,139.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 56.18% (24hrs: -1.20%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03878 (24hrs: -0.83%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 770 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $61.8
Total Fees: 18.9 BTC/ $1.9M
CME Futures Open Interest: 194,740 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 37.2 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 10.60%
Bitcoin sitting in over-the-counter desk balances: 431,000 BTC
Basket Performance
Technical Analysis
The ETH/BTC ratio has already scaled the 50-day SMA and is now looking to establish a foothold above the 100-day average.
That would give traders more confidence that the pair has bottomed out and open the door for a test of the 200-day average at 0.044.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $411.4 (+9.03%), down 0.75% at $408.11 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $313.81 (+3.77%), up 0.63% at $315.80 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.29 (+5.04%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $23.27 (+2.02%), up 0.13% at $23.30 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.77 (+6.04%), down 0.59% at $11.70 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.86 (+0.51%), up 0.19% at $15.89 in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.83 (-0.85%), up 0.39% at $12.88 in pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $27.89 (+2.8%), up 3.08% at $28.75 in pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $64.53 (+7.86%), down 0.22% at $64.39 in pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net inflow: $223.1 million
Cumulative net inflows: $34.55 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.119 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net inflow: $102 million
Cumulative net inflows: $1.97 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.417 million.
Source: <a href=»https://farside.co.uk/btc/» target=»_blank»>Farside Investors</a>
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The number of daily transactions on Aptos, a layer-1 blockchain focused on safety and scalability, has almost tripled to 3.1 million in three months.
The increased network usage supports the bull case in the APT token, which has increased 46% this year.
While You Were Sleeping
<a href=»https://www.ft.com/content/2cf6e79c-8512-47cc-ab0b-beddc36fa109″ target=»_blank»>Dollar’s Surge Sparks Biggest Fall in Emerging Market Currencies in 2 Years</a> (Financial Times): The U.S. dollar’s surge, driven by expectations of President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, and economic struggles in emerging markets, has sparked the largest sell-off in their currencies since Sept. 2022.
<a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/12/less-than-1-of-microsoft-shareholders-voted-for-btc-proposal» target=»_blank»>Less than 1% of Microsoft Shareholders Voted for BTC Proposal</a> (CoinDesk): Only 0.55% of Microsoft shareholders backed a proposal, advocated by the National Center for Public Policy Research, to include bitcoin in the company’s balance sheet.
<a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/12/12/vancouver-city-council-passes-pro-bitcoin-motion-citing-fiat-challenges» target=»_blank»>Vancouver City Council Passes Pro-Bitcoin Motion Citing Fiat Challenges</a> (CoinDesk): Vancouver’s city council approved a mayoral motion to explore using bitcoin as a treasury asset and for paying fees and taxes.
<a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/12/link-aave-rocket-30-as-trump-s-world-liberty-financial-buys-2-m-tokens» target=»_blank»>LINK, AAVE Rocket 30% as Trump’s World Liberty Financial Buys $2M Tokens</a> (CoinDesk): Crypto wallets associated with the Trump-supported World Liberty Financial project reportedly purchased millions in ETH, AAVE, and LINK tokens on Thursday, driving up their prices significantly.
<a href=»https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korean-president-yoon-vows-fight-end-2024-12-12/» target=»_blank»>South Korean President Yoon Vows to ‘Fight to the End’</a> (Reuters): South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, facing a second impeachment vote on Saturday, defended his Dec. 3 martial law declaration as an attempt to save democracy.
<a href=»https://www.wsj.com/economy/inflation-prices-trump-president-186fb5cc» target=»_blank»>Inflation Is Stuck. Can Trump Unstick It?</a> (The Wall Street Journal): Despite some easing, the U.S. year-over-year inflation rate stands at 2.7%, with economists warning that President-elect Donald Trump’s planned tariffs and immigration restrictions could further drive up prices.
In the Ether
Bitcoin is the crypto sector’s top asset and is also universally defined by U.S. regulators and courts as a commodity, putting it under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That agency is now seeking public comments on whether it should open the wider world of derivatives to around-the-clock trading, as already executed for bitcoin and other digital assets.
Though the CFTC is expected to be established as a crypto market regulator in Congress’ ongoing effort to establish industry rules, the agency’s invitation for comments issued on Monday doesn’t explicitly discuss digital assets oversight. The request notes that «technological advancements and market demand» are pushing CFTC-regulated firms toward being able to handle transactions at all times.
“As I have long said, the CFTC must take a forward-looking approach to shifts in market structure to ensure our markets remain vibrant and resilient while protecting all participants,” said Acting Chairman Caroline Pham, in a statement. She was tapped by President Donald Trump to run the agency while it awaits the Senate confirmation of its chairman nominee, Brian Quintenz.
Trading without downtime presents a host of challenges for U.S. markets unaccustomed to it, according to the request, including «what governance frameworks, exchange staffing models and technologies would be necessary to ensure market integrity and operational resilience, as well as compliance with all core principles, under a continuous trading model.» Such an expansion would require firms to handle live maintenance and technology patches and human monitoring of the systems and markets during the extended hours, which are issues already long wrestled with by digital assets operations.
The CFTC would still need a change in law before it could have direct authority over actual spot-market trading of bitcoin and other tokens that aren’t eventually categorized as securities, which would get Securities and Exchange Commission oversight. If the agency is ultimately a major regulator of trading and of the platforms and firms that handle customers’ transactions, that’s a space in which 24-hour, seven-days-a-week activity is already the model.
The week has begun on an interesting note, with the U.S. dollar crashing to three-year lows alongside losses on Wall Street, yet bitcoin, which usually follows the sentiment on Wall Street, stands tall.
This could just be the beginning.
The shift away from the USD and toward seizure and censorship-resistant assets like BTC and stablecoins could accelerate if President Donald Trump follows through with his reported plans to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have pushed the DXY and U.S. stock markets lower today.
That’s the lesson from Turkey, which has seen its currency, the lira (TRY), collapse over the years mainly due to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s repeated interference in the central bank’s operations. The sliding lira has triggered a capital flight into BTC and stablecoins since at least 2020-21.
Trump’s issues with the Fed
Trump has feuded publicly with the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, for years, criticizing Powell for being too late on rate cuts even during his first term when interest rates were way lower than today.
However, Trump’s criticism has recently reached a fever pitch with reports suggesting he is looking for ways to get rid of Powell, who recently warned of stagflation even as the President reiterated calls for lower borrowing costs while suggesting there is no inflation.
Powell’s patient approach follows a trade war-led spike in survey-based measures of inflation expectations, which could always become self-fulfilling.
Still, on Monday, Trump went further, calling Powell a «major loser» and warning that the economy could slow down unless interest rates are immediately lowered.
Lesson From Turkey
Erdogan began interfering in the central bank’s operations in 2019, and since then, the lira has collapsed sevenfold from 5.3 per dollar to 38 per dollar.
It all started with Turkey’s inflation rate reaching double digits in 2017. It remained elevated in the subsequent year, which prompted the country’s central bank to increase the one-week repo rate from 17.5% to 24% in September 2018.
The move likely didn’t go well with Erodgan, who issued the first decree dismissing Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) governor Murat Cetinkaya in July 2019. From then on until the end of 2021, Erdogan issued multiple decrees dismissing and hiring several CBT officials. Amid all this, inflation remained elevated, and the lira continued to depreciate at an alarming rate.
«We certainly don’t believe in high interest rates. We will pull down inflation and exchange rates with low-rate policy … High rates make the rich richer, the poor poorer. We won’t let that happen,» Erdogan said in 2021.
As of 2025, Turkey faces an inflation rate of nearly 40%, according to data source TradingEconomics.
This episode serves as a cautionary tale for Trump, highlighting that tampering with central bank independence — especially in the face of looming inflation — can erode investor confidence and send the domestic currency into a tailspin.
This does not necessarily mean that the USD will crash exactly like lira but may see significant devaluation.
Perhaps it could prove even more destabilizing for global markets, considering the dollar is a global reserve currency, and the U.S. Treasury market is the bedrock for international finance.
If better sense fails to prevail, U.S. investors may feel incentivized to move away from U.S. assets and into BTC and other alternative investments, just as Turks did.
Uncategorized
Bitcoin Holding Near $87k While Stocks Slump a ‘Strong Sign’ of Maturing BTC Sentiment
Bitcoin (BTC) is taking a stand even as the broader stock market keeps sliding down to its tariff-related lows on Easter Monday.
The top cryptocurrency is up 2.3% in the last 24 hours and now trading for $86,800 for the first time since April 3—the day after the Trump administration unveiled its new tariff policy. Mainly buoyed by bitcoin, the broader market gauge CoinDesk 20 Index has risen 1.17% in the same period of time, with most tokens relatively unchanged.
Crypto-linked stocks have also remained stable, with Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) down 1.2% and 1.3% respectively, and major bitcoin miners such as MARA Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Core Scientific (CORZ) slumping between 2% and 3%.
The crypto market’s resilience is noteworthy considering that the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones have gone lower by 3.35%, 3.5% and 3.27% respectively, making their way back down to the tariff-related lows of two weeks ago.
Gold, meanwhile, is up 2.9% and is now trading for $3,400, while the DXY (an index that measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of other currencies) reached its lowest level in three years.
“Was today’s tandem rally in bitcoin and gold merely holiday-driven noise, or a meaningful shift towards bitcoin as a safe-haven asset? The latter would mark a material change in how traditional finance views bitcoin,» analysts at crypto trading firm QCP Capital wrote.
«With Europe still on holiday, market confirmation may take a few more sessions. The correlation between bitcoin, gold and equities is one to watch closely.»
Meanwhile, Lawrence McDonald, former head of U.S. Macro Strategy at French investment bank Société Générale, said that it may be time to sell gold in favor of bitcoin.
“Bitcoin has NEVER held up this well with a VIX near 30,” he posted on X, calling bitcoin’s resilience a game-changer. “This is a strong sign of a maturing bitcoin market (good news) and colossal encroaching fiat currency stress, USD.”
The weakness of stocks and the U.S. dollar, put into perspective with bitcoin and gold’s strength, may be due to investors’ concerns about Trump potentially looking to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Earlier on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump continued putting pressure on Powell, whom he called a “major loser” in a Truth Social post, sending an already shaky stock market even lower.
Trump demanded that Powell and his team lower interest rates “NOW,” arguing that there is currently “virtually no inflation” and that costs for many things are declining. Nevertheless, Trump said there’s a threat that the economy will slow down unless the Fed cuts rates.
Powell’s term, which started when he was appointed by Trump himself during his first four years in the Oval Office, is set to end in May 2026, but Trump has been trying to find a legal way to fire Powell beforehand.
The Fed Chair has previously argued that there is no possible way for the U.S. President to remove him under the law.
U.S. Derivatives Watchdog Weighs 24/7 Action With Crypto Oversight on Horizon
Can Bitcoin Benefit From Trump Firing Powell? Turkey’s Lira Crisis May Provide Clues
Bitcoin Holding Near $87k While Stocks Slump a ‘Strong Sign’ of Maturing BTC Sentiment
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