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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Bulls Lose Momentum Before Bessent Confirmation Hearing

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market has had a bullish 24 hours, thanks to Wednesday’s soft U.S. core inflation print that alleviated hawkish Fed concerns. The momentum, however, has slowed.

With the inflation data out of the way, crypto traders are refocusing on President-elect Donald Trump’s swearing-in on Jan. 20 and possible pro-crypto action on the first day. Some expect bitcoin to set new highs by then, while others are penciling in at least 10% price swings in XRP, SOL, ETH and BTC.

On Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. holding BTC as a part of a strategic reserve has increased to 50% for the first time.

Bitwise, a San Francisco-based crypto asset management company, said on X that it provided information about bitcoin ETFs to a nation-state, adding weight to the sovereign BTC adoption narrative.

Speculation is rife that SEC commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda could rekindle crypto policy as early as next week.

That said, don’t overlook the importance and market-moving ability of Treasury nominee Scott Bessent’s confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Finance Committee that kicks off at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. Bessent will likely face scrutiny on various topics, including dollar policy, tariffs and fiscal sustainability.

In released remarks, Bessent said he wants the 2017 tax cuts to become permanent and ensure the dollar remains a dominant global reserve currency. He also said tariffs are a valuable negotiating tool.

According to ING, the dollar could rally if Bessent highlights the supposedly inflationary tariffs as a key tool. A renewed uptick in the currency and Treasury yields may slow BTC’s gains, potentially injecting volatility in risk assets in general. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto

Jan. 17: Oral arguments at the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia in KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC, where the CFTC is appealing the district court’s Sep. 12, 2024 ruling favoring Kalshi’s Congressional Control Contracts.

Jan. 23: First deadline for a decision by the SEC on NYSE Arca’s Dec. 3 proposal to list and trade shares of Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL), a closed-end trust, as an ETF.

Jan. 25: First deadline for SEC decisions on proposals for four new spot solana ETFs: Bitwise Solana ETF, Canary Solana ETF, 21Shares Core Solana ETF and VanEck Solana Trust, which are all sponsored by Cboe BZX Exchange.

Macro

Jan. 16, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ended Jan. 11. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 210K vs. Prev. 201K.

Jan. 16, 10:30 a.m.: President-elect Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary nominee, Scott Bessent, will testify before aSenate Committee during his confirmation hearing. Livestream link.

Jan. 17, 5:00 a.m.: Eurostat releases December 2024’s Eurozone inflation data.

Inflation Rate MoM Final Est. 0.4% vs Prev. -0.3%.

Core Inflation Rate YoY Final Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.7%.

Inflation Rate YoY Final Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 2.2%.

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

The Aave community is discussing a strategy to scale its GHO stablecoin by deploying a new revenue stream via bitcoin mining. It would use capital from the GHO treasury to purchase hardware.

Balancer DAO will vote on whether to deploy Balancer v3 on the Arbitrum blockchain. Voting starts Jan. 16 and ends Jan. 20.

Unlocks

Jan. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply, worth $68 million.

Jan. 18: Ondo (ONDO) to unlock 134% of its circulating supply, worth $2.19 billion.

Jan. 21: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.6% of circulating supply worth $76 million.

Token Launches

Jan. 16: Solayer (LAYER) to host token sale followed by five months of points farming.

Jan. 17: Solv Protocol (SOLV) to be listed on Binance.

Conferences:

Day 11 of 14: Starknet, an Ethereum layer 2, is holding its Winter Hackathon (online).

Day 4 of 12: Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025 (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)

Jan. 17: Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025 (Los Angeles)

Jan. 18: BitcoinDay (Naples, Florida)

Jan. 20-24: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland)

Jan. 21: Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025

Jan. 25-26: Catstanbul 2025 (Istanbul). The first community conference for Jupiter, a decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator built on Solana.

Jan 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)

Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)

Feb. 18-20: Consensus Hong Kong

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken has experienced a spike in ether (ETH) inflows after a whale deposited $67 million worth of the token on Thursday.

The wallet in question withdrew a total of 217,513 ETH ($350 million) from Kraken and Coinbase over a 10-day period in 2022 at an average price of $1,611. With ether currently trading at $3,330, the trader has made a total profit of $354 million, Lookonchain reports.

Coinbase’s (COIN) derivatives exchange has listed perpetual swap contracts for AERO, BEAM, DRIFT and S. All tokens are up between 4% and 7% respectively.

Artificial intelligence (AI) agent tokens shrugged off last week’s drop with a significant move to the upside. Virtuals protocol (VIRTUAL) is up 31% in the past 24 hours while AI16Z is up 13%, both outperforming the CoinDesk20 (CD20) index which has risen by 5.7% in 24-hours.

Litecoin is also one of the day’s top performers after exchange-traded fund (ETF) analyst Eric Balchunas said that the Litecoin S-1 ETF application had received comments back from the SEC, potentially paving the way for a spot LTC ETF.

Derivatives Positioning

LTC has emerged as the best-performing major coin in the past 24 hours, with prices rising by 16%. The surge is accompanied by a 21% increase in futures open interest and a positive Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator, suggesting strong net buying pressure.

HBAR and XRP have seen 10% jumps in open interest with positive CVDs.

Front-end BTC and ETH options no longer show a bias for puts, realigning with bullish long-term sentiment.

Key flows on Deribit and Paradigm featured a BTC bull call spread involving $102K and $110K strikes and a bear call spread in ETH, involving the March 28 expiry options at $3.5K and $4.5K strikes.

Market Movements:

BTC is down 0.47% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $99,217.43 (24hrs: +0.64%)

ETH is down 2.46% at $3,334.68 (24hrs: +3.22%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 0.2% at 3,752.68 (24hrs: +5.68%)

Ether staking yield is down 2 bps at 3.1%

BTC funding rate is at 0.006% (6.52% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at at 109.13

Gold is up 0.94% at $2,737.90/oz

Silver is up 1.85% at $31.90/oz

Nikkei 225 closed +0.33% to 38,572.60

Hang Seng closed +1.23% at 19,522.89

FTSE is up 0.82% at 8,369.48

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.24% at 5,094.68

DJIA closed on Wednesday +1.65% to 43,221.55

S&P 500 closed +1.84% at 5,949.91

Nasdaq closed +2.45% at 19,511.23

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.82% at 24,789.3

S&P 40 Latin America closed +2.49% at 2,262.81

U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 1 bp at 4.67%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% at 6,009.00

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.48% at 21,504.00

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 43,501.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 57.66

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.033

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 801 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $56.8

Total Fees: $739,760/ 7.5 BTC

CME Futures Open Interest: 178,810 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 36.5 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 10.40%

Technical Analysis

BTC is probing dual resistance at around $100K, marked by the descending trendline from record highs and the Ichimoku cloud.

A breakout may motivate momentum traders to join the market, accelerating price gains.

Crossovers above the cloud are said to represent a bullish shift in momentum.

Crypto Equities

MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $360.62 (+5.39%), down 1% at $357 in pre-market.

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $274.93 (+7.66%), down 0.53% at $273.48 in pre-market.

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.93 (+5%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.15 (+4.55%), down 0.55% at $18.05 in pre-market.

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.46 (+%), down 0.52% at $13.39 in pre-market.

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.53 (+4.46%), down 0.21% at $14.50 in pre-market.

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.2 (+8.21%), down 0.89% at $11.10 in pre-market.

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $24.57 (+6.5%), down 1.14% at $24.29 in pre-market.

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $56.11 (+2.15%), unchanged in pre-market.

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $35.36 (+6.92%), unchanged in pre-market.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $755.1 million

Cumulative net flows: $36.48 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.133 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: $59.7 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.477 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.550 million.

Source: Farside Investors as of Jan. 15.

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin funding rates on major exchanges, excluding Hyperliquid, remain well below early 2024 levels and the highs seen in December, when the BTC price broke above $100,000 for the first time.

In other words, it’s cheaper to be long right now than last month and a year ago.

While You Were Sleeping

XRP’s Bullish Momentum Strongest Since January 2018 as Futures Open Interest Hits Record High (CoinDesk): XRP has soared 50% this month to over $3, experiencing its strongest rally since 2018.

Monthly Crypto Trading on CEXs Hits All-Time High in December: CCData (Cointelegraph): December set a new record for crypto trading, with $11.3 trillion in spot and derivatives volume on centralized exchanges.

Nomura-Backed Crypto Firm Komainu Raises $75 Million in Bitcoin (Bloomberg): Komainu, a crypto custodian backed by Nomura, secured $75 million in bitcoin from Blockstream to expand globally, adopt tokenization tools, and create a bitcoin treasury.

UK Economy Returns to Growth, Faces Uncertain Outlook (The Wall Street Journal): The U.K. economy inched up 0.1% in November, missing forecasts, as inflation and high borrowing costs strained growth.

Chinese Citizens’ Doubts Grow Over Official Growth Claims (Financial Times): China is set to report 5% growth for 2024, but skepticism abounds as weak consumer demand, layoffs and a real estate slump weigh heavily on investment, consumption and daily life.

Bank of Korea Leaves Rates Unchanged in a Surprise Move, Warns GDP Growth ‘Highly Likely’ to Miss Forecasts (CNBC): South Korea’s central bank held its benchmark rate at 3%, surprising analysts expecting a cut, citing economic uncertainty. It warned of weaker growth in 2024 and 2025. Stocks and the won rose following the decision.

In the Ether

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Trump’s Official Memecoin Surges Despite Massive $320 Million Unlock in Thin Holiday Trading

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TRUMP, the memecoin tied to U.S. President Donald Trump, gained more than 9% in the past 24 hours following a $320 million token unlock. The price now sits around $8.40, still down more than 88% from its peak above $71 on Jan. 18.

The recent unlock may spell further trouble for investors, who are estimated to have lost a total of $2 billion after purchasing the token earlier this year.

Token unlocks typically flood the market with new supply and tend to depress prices. But in this case, the market appears to have priced in the release beforehand, potentially explaining the price uptick. Still, the $320 million unlock raises the risk of a large sell-off, especially given TRUMP’s thin liquidity.

Data from CoinMarketCap shows that just $1.3 million could move the token’s price by 2% on major exchanges. The move also comes during the Easter holiday weekend, when trading volumes are subdued and price swings can be more pronounced.

On social media, rumors are swirling about a possible event for large token holders, supposedly being organized by Trump himself. These claims remain unverified and highly speculative.

Data from Dune analytics shows there are currently 636,000 TRUMP token holders on-chain, with just 12,285 wallets having more than $1,000 worth of the cryptocurrency.

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Slovenia Moves to Tax Crypto Profits at 25%

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Slovenia’s finance ministry has proposed a 25% tax on capital gains from cryptocurrency starting in 2026, under a draft law aimed at closing a gap in the country’s tax system.

The tax will apply to profit made when individuals sell crypto for fiat currency or spend it on goods and services. However, swapping one cryptocurrency for another will remain tax-free, and any gains made before January 1, 2026, will not be taxed, according to the finance ministry’s proposal.

The measure is meant to treat crypto gains more like other capital investments, such as stocks or bonds, which are already taxed.

Under the law, individuals would calculate their profit as the difference between the value at acquisition and at sale, adjusted for transaction fees. Losses can be carried forward to offset future gains. Taxpayers would need to file an annual return by March 31 and make payment within 15 days.

The tax could generate between €2.5 million and €25 million annually, according to preliminary government estimates. The country’s Ministry of Finance is soliciting public feedback on the proposal, which would come into effect next year.

The proposal comes as data from the European Central Bank’s ‘Survey on Consumer Payment Attitudes in the Euro Area’ shows Slovenia has the highest share of cryptocurrency owners in the euro area, with 15% of adults holding digital currencies last year, up from 8% in 2022.

Disclaimer: Information collected for this article was translated with the use of artificial intelligence.

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Unpacking the DOJ’s Crypto Enforcement Memo

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Earlier this month, the Department of Justice disbanded its National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team and said it would no longer pursue what Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche described as «regulation by prosecution.»

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

‘Regulation by prosecution’

The narrative

The U.S. Department of Justice «will no longer pursue litigation or enforcement actions that have the effect of superimposing regulatory frameworks on digital assets» in lieu of regulatory agencies putting together their own frameworks for overseeing the sector, a 4-page memo signed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche on April 7 said. In other words, the DOJ will no longer pursue «regulation by prosecution,» the memo said.

Why it matters

The DOJ’s memo raised concerns that it may mean criminal activities in the crypto sector would not be prosecuted, or at least prosecuted as heavily as it was under the past several years — both by disbanding the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET) and by shifting the entity’s priorities.

Breaking it down

At a practical level, the memo itself is internal guidance but may not be a binding document. Multiple attorneys told CoinDesk they interpreted the guidance to indicate that the DOJ would still bring fraud or other criminal cases involving crypto, but would try to avoid any cases where the DOJ itself had to determine if a digital asset was a security or a commodity.

«Fraud is still fraud,» said Josh Naftalis, a partner at Pallas Partners LLP and a former prosecutor with the U.S. Attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York. «This memo does not seem to say the DOJ is not going to prosecute fraud in the crypto space.»

Still, the memo raised alarms for prominent Democrats who questioned whether the DOJ was suggesting it would let criminal conduct occur. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Mazie Hirono, Richard Durbin, Sheldon Whitehouse, Christopher Coons and Richard Blumenthal wrote a letter to Blanche, saying his «decision to give a free pass to cryptocurrency money launderers» and shut down the NCET were «grave mistakes that will support sanctions evasion, drug trafficking, scams and child sexual exploitation.»

«Specifically, the Department will no longer target virtual currency exchanges, mixing and tumbling services and offline wallets for the acts of their end users or unwitting violations of regulations — except to the extent the investigation is consistent with the priorities articulated in the following paragraphs,» the DOJ memo said, a passage the Senators’ letter referenced.

New York Attorney General Letitia James wrote an open letter to Senate leaders in the same week asking them to advance legislation to address cryptocurrency risks. She did not specifically reference Blanche’s memo but detailed possible ways to better police the sector through legislation.

Katherine Reilly, a partner at Pryor Cashman and a former prosecutor with the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, told CoinDesk that most of the major crypto cases brought by the DOJ in recent years would not have been affected had this guidance been in effect.

The BitMEX case in 2020, when the DOJ and Commodity Futures Trading Commission brought unregistered trading and other charges against the platform, is «probably closest to the line» of being a case that may not have been brought under this guidance, she said.

Trump pardoned BitMEX, its founders and a senior employee in late March, barely two weeks before the DOJ memo was shared.

«I think that it’s clear that the Justice Department wants to limit the DOJ’s role in regulating the crypto industry … looking beyond its role in other crimes, fraud, laundering proceeds from narcotics trafficking, things like that, and sort of take a step back from the role of trying to bring order and fairness to the crypto industry as a whole,» Reilly said.

That’s «probably the intent behind the BitMEX pardons too,» she said.

Naftalis said the DOJ will continue to pursue drug, terrorism or other illicit financing charges even under the memo.

«I think that the headline for the industry is to the extent that there are legal uses of crypto, they’re not going to set the guard rail by criminal enforcement,» he said. «That’s for Congress.»

One section of the memo tells prosecutors not to charge Bank Secrecy Act violations, unregistered securities offering violations, unregistered broker-dealer violations or other Commodity Exchange Act registration violations «unless there is evidence that the defendant knew of the licensing or registration requirement at issue and violated such a requirement willfully.»

Carla Reyes, an Associate Professor of Law at SMU Dedman School of Law, told CoinDesk that this may be referencing recent cases where developers build tools under the impression that they were not committing unlicensed money transmitting activities under existing guidance but may get charged anyway.

«Most criminal statutes require some level of knowledge to define your intention, and knowledge that you’re committing a crime when you do it,» she said. «The further away you get from that, the lesser the charge, but the more willful [and] intentional it is, the higher the charge.»

What the memo seems to want to explicitly move away from is any suggestion that federal prosecutors would interpret how securities or commodities laws might apply to digital assets.

«Prosecutors should not charge violations of the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Commodity Exchange Act, or the regulations promulgated pursuant to these Acts, in cases where (a) the charge would require the Justice Department to litigate whether a digital asset is a ‘security’ or ‘commodity,’ and (b) there is an adequate alternative criminal charge available, such as mail or wire fraud,» the memo said.

A popular critique leveled against former SEC Chair Gary Gensler by the crypto industry was that he was «regulating by enforcement,» rather than focusing on developing guidance for the industry to know what was or wasn’t acceptable. Blanche seems to be referring to a similar critique in the memo, Naftalis said, in that one-off enforcement decisions by the SEC or DOJ should not define the guardrails for the industry.

Steve Segal, a shareholder at Buchalter, said that some of the DOJ’s past cases would charge trading venues for failing to police their own customers. The memo now seems to suggest that if a crypto exchange’s executives were running a clean platform, and customers were laundering funds derived from criminal activities, the executives would not be charged. This is in contrast with, for example, FTX, where the executives were charged and convicted of (or pled guilty to) fraud charges.

«Of course, a lot of the big crypto cases we’ve seen over the last few years are sort of pure investor fraud, things like FTX. And one of the more interesting things about this memo is it talks about crypto investors and really prioritizing cases where crypto investors are being victimized,» Reilly said. «And so I don’t think we should conclude that this memo means we’re going to see a lot fewer cases in the crypto space, or that crypto companies can sort of breathe a sigh of relief that the DOJ is out of the picture for a few years.»

The DOJ’s future cases may appear a bit different in terms of the specific allegations made, but «it’s much too soon to say that everybody can assume the DOJ is out of the crypto business,» she said.

Many of the attorneys speaking to CoinDesk agreed that the memo itself did not clarify all of the different issues that may come up with a criminal case, nor was it an end-all/be-all document.

The memo announced prosecutorial discretion but it isn’t itself a law, Reyes said, adding that it may guide internal decision-making about which cases to pursue the most heavily, as well as the strategies that guide those prosecutions.

A lot of details about how this memo ties together with Trump’s executive order on the strategic bitcoin reserve still need to be spelled out, Segal said. Sections on victim compensation and how seized funds should be handled in the memo do not explain how the DOJ might handle situations where seized funds are turned over to bankruptcy estates, such as what happened with FTX or other similar scenarios.

«I think we’ll really have to see how it plays out, because this guidance, I do think, leaves prosecutors a lot of room to bring cases even of these kinds of violations that are being cast as more regulatory,» Reilly said. «So even if that’s the intent, I think the devil is in the details on what cases we see going forward.»

Stories you may have missed

This week

soc 041525

Monday

  • The Securities and Exchange Commission and Binance were set to file a joint status report on their discussions after a judge paused the regulator’s case against the exchange and its affiliated entities and executives in February. Last Friday, the parties asked for an extension of this deadline, and the judge overseeing the case signed off on Monday, giving the parties until mid-June to file a follow-up.

Elsewhere:

  • (The Wall Street Journal) Binance executives met with U.S. Treasury Department officials in March about potentially «loosening U.S. government oversight» of the exchange following Binance’s November 2023 guilty plea, the Journal reported. Binance agreed to a court-appointed monitor as part of the plea. At the same time as last month’s discussions, Binance was in talks with the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial to develop a dollar-pegged stablecoin.
  • (Fortune) Fortune spoke to and profiled Bo Hines, the executive director of U.S. President Donald Trump’s digital assets advisory council.
  • (CNBC) U.S. importers are seeing more «canceled sailings» due to a drop in demand as a result of tariffs, CNBC reports.
  • (The Verge) ICERAID claims to be a protocol on Solana where people can crowdsource images of «criminal illegal alien activity» in exchange for tokens, but it does not appear to have any connection to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), The Verge reports.
  • (NPR) The Department of Homeland Security is revoking parole for a number of migrants, telling them to self-deport from the U.S. U.S. citizens, born within the U.S., are also receiving these emails.
  • (The New York Times) Acting IRS Commissioner Gary Shapley has been replaced after just three days on the job, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly complained to President Donald Trump that he was not consulted on Shapley’s promotion, which was pushed by Elon Musk.

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!

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