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Crypto Daybook Americas: Altcoins Slide, Gold Shines as Trump Tariffs Spur Flight to Safety
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market is extending yesterday’s slide as investors anticipate the impact of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, set to come into effect on April 2, and key macroeconomic data due later Friday.
Bitcoin (BTC) has lost 2.5% in the past 24 hours, which seems pretty staid when compared with an almost 6% in slide in ether (ETH), 5.5% in XRP and 7% in dogecoin (DOGE). The broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) dropped 4.65%. Gold, in contrast, hit new highs.
The growing exposure to gold has benefited tokens backed by the precious metal, which CoinDesk Data’s latest stablecoin report shows climbed to a $1.4 billion market capitalization in March.
It seems clear traders are moving to reduce risk exposure with one eye on the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report set to be released later. That data could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and thus any appetite for risk going forward.
Bitcoin traders are also anticipating a record-breaking $12.2 billion in BTC options expiring on Deribit today, with a max pain point at $85,000. Implied volatility, however, remains near annual lows as the expiry isn’t likely to move the market, according to Wintermute OTC trader Jake O.
“These expirations are yet to consistently move markets, largely because BTC options open interest remains small relative to spot activity,» Jake O. said in an emailed statement. «That $12B is dwarfed by $28B in spot volume traded over the past 24 hours.”
While the derisking trend grows, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen consistent inflows since mid-March, adding in nearly $1 billion over the past two weeks. In contrast, spot ether ETF outflows have remained persistent, with around $115 million exiting these funds over the same period.
Looking ahead, money managers are likely to keep on reducing risk exposure. The trend spurred Goldman Sachs to raise its gold price target for the year to $3,300 per troy ounce, with the potential to rise to $4,500 in an “extreme tail scenario.” Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
April 1: Metaplanet (3350) 10-for-1 stock split becomes effective.
Macro
March 28, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February unemployment rate data.
Unemployment Rate Est. 6.8% vs. Prev. 6.5%
March 28, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases February unemployment rate data.
Unemployment Rate Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
March 28, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases January GDP data.
GDP MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
March 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases February consumer income and expenditure data.
Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.6%
PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5%
Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.9%
Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.2%
April 2, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs plan takes effect alongside a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain car parts.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Balancer DAO is discussing the establishment of a Balancer Alliance Program, which would see the protocol share a portion of the revenue it generates with key ecosystem partners in the form of USDC as veBAL.
CoW DAO is discussing updating the score definition for buy orders after a Base network incident revealed that the current version could lead to an excessive allocation of solver rewards.
Arbitrum DAO is voting on converting 15 million ARB into stablecoins to be managed via a “33/33/33 split among Karpatkey, Avantgarde & Myso, and Gauntlet.” It’s also voting on allocating 10 million ARB into “on-chain strategies designed to generate yield while safeguarding the principal.” Voting ends on April 3.
March 28, 3 a.m: Ontology to hold a Weekly Community Update via X Spaces.
Unlocks
March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $26.47 million.
April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $164.98 million.
April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $15.30 million.
April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $15.87 million.
April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $128.09 million.
April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $10.91 million.
April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $23.54 million.
Token Listings
March 28: Binance to delist Aergo (AERGO).
March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 3 of 3: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
Day 2 of 2: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)
March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town)
April 2-3: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference (Bangkok)
April 2-5: ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon (Bucharest, Romania)
April 3-6: BitBlockBoom (Dallas)
April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival
April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week
April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
A small set of tokens are gaining higher traction on social media platforms such as X, Reddit and Telegram, Santiment data shows, making it beneficial for traders to put on a watchlist as market conditions improve.
Solana (SOL) leads the pack due to its high liquidity and a growing interest in Solana-based projects, alongside Curve DAO token (CRV), which has seen a 30% price rebound and increased trading activity in the past three weeks.
COTI is generating excitement following a recent airdrop, with users exploring its supply and swapping challenges, while newly-issued Walrus (WAL), a Sui ecosystem project, is riding a wave of interest fueled by trading pair mentions and exchange listings.
Social chatter often precedes price movements because it is indicative of forthcoming demand or shifting sentiments.
Derivatives Positioning
Global open interest across all instruments declined to $105 billion from $124 billion earlier today, coinciding with the broader drawdown in major digital assets, according to data from Laevitas.
Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations amounted to $362 million, with long positions accounting for a dominant 83% of the wipeout.
Among assets with more than $100 million in open interest, the steepest percentage declines were seen in Pepe (-14.0%), PNUT (-13.7%), Worldcoin (-12.6%), Avalanche (-11.9%), and BNB (-11.5%). Only three assets in this group saw an uptick in open interest over the last 24 hours: Toncoin (+15.5%), Berachain (+9.78%) and ACT (+2.15%).
On the liquidation heatmap for the largest futures pair, recent price action has swept through major downside liquidation clusters. The next significant zones for potential liquidations are located at $86,000 and $88,000, suggesting these levels could attract volatility if approached.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 2.34% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $85,266.30 (24hrs: -2.28%)
ETH is down 4.77% at $,1911.49 (24hrs: -5.51%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 4.37% at 2,618.54 (24hrs: -4.55%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.99%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0155% (5.6666% annualized) on Binance
DXY is unchanged at 104.43
Gold is up 1.65% at $3,110.60/oz
Silver is up 1.38% at $35.38/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -1.8% at 37,120.33
Hang Seng closed -0.65% at 23,426.60
FTSE is up 0.29% at 8,691.20
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.14% at 5,373.72
DJIA closed on Thursday -0.37% at 42,299.70
S&P 500 closed -0.33% at 5,693.31
Nasdaq closed -0.53% at 17,804.03
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 25,161.10
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.27% at 2,466.98
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 4 bps at 4.34%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% at 5,727.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.36% at 19,917.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.13% at 42,546.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 62.04 (0.44%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02241 (-2.44%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 847 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $47.45
Total Fees: 5.28 BTC / $449,016
CME Futures Open Interest: 140,460 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 27.7 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.86%
Technical Analysis
Ether continues to lag behind the broader market, with prices consolidating around levels last seen in November 2023.
With prices below all the key exponential moving averages (EMAs), ETH has struggled to reclaim the former support near $2,110 — a level aligned with the wick lows from the Aug. 5 and Feb. 3 sell-offs.
This level is set to act as resistance unless the price can find acceptance above in the coming days.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $324.59 (-1.43%), down 2.87% at $315.29 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $188.58 (-2.77%), down 1.35% at $186.04
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.44 (-3.54%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.64 (-1.09%), down 1.76% at $13.40
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.77 (-1.65%), down 1.8% at $7.63
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.88 (+3.28%), down 1.52% at $7.76
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.84 (-3.45%), down 1.47% at $7.73
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.04 (-1.96%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.92 (-6.7%), up 0.22% at $37
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $52.28 (+4.56%), down 4.17% at $50.10
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: $89 million
Cumulative net flows: $36.42 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,122 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$4.2 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.423 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
Bitcoin dominance continues to increase and is now approaching a key resistance level at 62.3%.
Currently 62.05% and holding above all major exponential moving averages (EMAs), the strength in BTC dominance suggests continued pressure on altcoins in the near term, with further downside risk likely if this trend persists.
While You Were Sleeping
Dogecoin, XRP Sink 7% as Trump Tariffs Threats Dent Markets; Bitcoin Options Expiry Looms (CoinDesk): DOGE, ETH and XRP sank more than 5% in early Asian hours as traders took profits on a relief rally that started earlier in the week.
GameStop Prices Bitcoin Notes at $29.85 (CoinDesk): GameStop priced $1.3 billion in convertible zero-coupon notes due 2030, with an initial conversion price of about $29.85 per share, a 35% premium over the closing stock price.
UK Regulator Intends to Start Authorizing Crypto Firms in 2026 (CoinDesk): The U.K. plans to replace its anti-money laundering-based crypto oversight with a full authorization regime by 2026, potentially requiring all firms offering regulated services to reapply under stricter rules.
China’s Xi Jinping Meets Foreign CEOs to Urge Trade Stability (Financial Times): The Chinese leader told executives that efforts to disrupt trade ties and fragment supply chains should be resisted, urging multinationals to reject protectionism and support economic openness.
Trump’s Erratic Tariff Policy Shakes Confidence in Europe’s Market Bull Run (Reuters): Amid growing trade war concerns, top European asset managers such as Amundi are reducing exposure to the euro and regional stocks after a strong first-quarter rally.
Chinese Exporters Hunt for Alternatives to ‘Irreplaceable’ U.S. Buyers (The Wall Street Journal): Chinese manufacturers are exploring new ways to stay profitable, including targeting markets like Russia, relocating production to Cambodia and selling directly to consumers.
In the Ether
A key crypto bill has opened a rift among Senate Democrats as another big test approaches for the viability of legislation to regulate stablecoin issuers. Most expect the bill to clear a significant procedural vote on Monday night, but Democrats are split.
The Senate’s most prominent crypto critic, Massachusetts Democrat Elizabeth Warren, is leading a faction trying to dig in their heels on the bill, raising objections that include national security threats, consumer hazards and the corruption of a White House that’s conflicted because of President Donald Trump’s own digital assets business interests.
The other group, including Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, one of the bill’s primary backers, has argued that presidential conflicts are already illegal under the U.S. Constitution, and the bill doesn’t need to have specific constraints added to clarify that point. That side also praises a number of changes to the legislation to improve consumer protections and to partially address worries that large corporations will issue stablecoins — the steady, typically dollar-based tokens that underpin so much of the crypto markets’ transaction activity.
The bill is set for what’s known as a cloture vote on Monday night, which will decide whether it advances into a formal and time-limited period of debate before final consideration. Cloture tends to be the most difficult test for Senate legislation, because it requires 60 votes — much more than a simple majority. A previous version of the bill failed such a vote once before, when Democrats demanded more time to make changes.
The stablecoin bill is one of two highly significant U.S. legislative efforts that will finally establish a set of rules and system of oversight for crypto in the U.S., and many in the industry believe it’ll usher in a flood of interest from investors who’ve waited on the sidelines until the sector is completely regulated. The supporters of the stablecoin legislation have set it up for this vote, suggesting they were able to wrangle enough backers to triumph.
The current Senate bill — known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act — is worse than doing nothing, according to the arguments from the camp led by Warren, who is the ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee. «A strong bill would ensure that consumers enjoy the same consumer protections when using stablecoins as they do when using other payment systems, close loopholes that enable the illicit use of stablecoins by cartels, terrorists, and criminals, and reduce the risk that stablecoins take down our financial system,» according to a sheet issued on Monday by the committee’s Democratic staff. «The GENIUS Act does not meet those minimum standards.»
Gillibrand, however, said the bill has been written in a «truly bipartisan effort.»
«Stablecoins are already playing an important role in the global economy, and it is essential that the U.S. enact legislation that protects consumers, while also enabling responsible innovations,” the New York Democrat said in a statement last week.
Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, also explained his view in choosing to support the bill. “It sets high standards for issuers, limits big tech overreach and creates a safer, more transparent framework for digital assets,» he said in a statement. «It’s not perfect, but it’s far better than the status quo.”
Read More: U.S. Stablecoin Bill Could Clear Senate Next Week, Proponents Say
In the hours before the planned Monday vote, a coalition of 46 consumer, labor and advocacy groups continued objecting to the legislation, which has been overhauled repeatedly.
«A vote for this legislation would enable and condone cryptobusiness activities by the Trump administration, organization, and family that raise unprecedented concerns about presidential conflicts of interest, corruption, and the abuse of public office for private gain,» they wrote in a letter to the Senate leadership.
The crypto industry itself has come together to support the legislation, with various lobbyist groups publishing statements arguing lawmakers should advance the legislation. Stand With Crypto, a Coinbase-backed group focused on getting voters to support crypto issues, warned lawmakers in a statement Monday that their votes would go into its sometimes arbitrary assignment of grades for politicians’ crypto sentiment.
While the stablecoin bill has drawn some political heat, it’s widely expected to be the easier of the two crypto efforts on Capitol Hill. The legislation to establish U.S. market rules for crypto is much more complex. For both bills, the House of Representatives is also working on parallel efforts.
If the bill clears cloture, it could speed toward Senate passage in a matter of days. Jaret Seiberg, a policy analyst with TD Cowen, expects it to clear the Senate this week
“That means it could become law by summer as we see the House moving quickly on the bill,” he wrote in a note to clients.
Warren wrote her own letter on Monday to the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Department of Justice, pressing for answers about what’s being done about North Korean hackers who stole more than a billion dollars in assets from exchange Bybit earlier this year.
«These stolen assets have helped keep the regime afloat and supported continued investments in its nuclear and conventional weapons programs,» Warren and Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat, wrote to the Treasury secretary and attorney general. «Reports suggest there are potentially thousands of North Korean-affiliated crypto hackers around the globe.”
Cryptocurrencies regained footing on Monday after a rocky start to the trading session, mirroring a broader recovery in risk assets as traders digested Moody’s downgrade of U.S. government bonds.
Bitcoin BTC notched a strong rebound after slipping to as low as $102,000 early in the U.S. session, following its record weekly close at $106,600 overnight. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap climbed back to $105,000 in afternoon trading, up 0.4% over 24 hours. Ether ETH rose 1.2%, reclaiming the $2,500 level.
DeFi lending platform Aave AAVE outperformed most large-cap altcoins, while the majority of the broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index members still remained in the red despite advancing from their daily lows. Solana SOL, Avalanche AVAX and Polkadot DOT were down 2%-3%.
The bounce extended to U.S. stocks, too, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq erasing their morning decline.
The early pullback in crypto and stocks came after Moody’s late Friday downgraded the U.S. credit rating from its AAA status. The move rattled bond markets, pushing 30-year Treasury yields above 5% and the 10-year note to over 4.5%.
Still, some analysts downplayed the downgrade’s long-term impact on asset prices.
«What does [the downgrade] mean for markets? Longer-term – really nothing,» said Ram Ahluwalia, CEO of wealth management firm Lumida Wealth. He added that in the short term there might be some selling pressure centered on U.S. Treasuries due to large institutional investors rebalancing, as some of them are mandated to hold assets only in AAA-rated securities.
«Moody’s is the last of the three major rating agencies to downgrade U.S. debt. This was the opposite of a surprise – it was a long time coming,» Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, said in an X post. «That’s why stock investors don’t seem to care.»
Bitcoin targets $138K this year
While BTC hovers just below its January record prices, digital asset ETF issuer 21Shares sees more upside for this year.
«Bitcoin is on the verge of a breakout,» research strategist Matt Mena wrote in a Monday report. He argued that BTC’s current rally is driven not by retail mania, but by a confluence of structural forces, including institutional inflows, a historic supply crunch and improving macro conditions that suggests a more durable and mature path to fresh all-time highs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have consistently absorbed more BTC than is mined daily, tightening supply while major institutions, corporations such as Strategy and newcomer Twenty One Capital accumulate and even states explore creating strategic reserves.
These factors combined could lift BTC to $138,500 this year, Mena forecasted, translating to a roughly 35% rally for the largest crypto.
Clients of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) will soon have the option to buy bitcoin BTC, according to CEO Jamie Dimon, who spoke at the bank’s annual Investor Day on Monday, signaling a shift in how the firm approaches the asset.
“We are going to allow you to buy it,” Dimon told shareholders, though he added the bank has no plans to hold the asset in custody.
Dimon, long known for his skepticism of cryptocurrency, doubled down in his closing remarks, saying he’s still “not a fan” of bitcoin, mainly because of its use for illegal activities, including sex trafficking and money laundering
He also pushed back on the industry’s hype around blockchain technology, arguing it’s less important than it’s made out to be — even as JPMorgan continues building in the space.
“We have been talking about blockchain for 12 to 15 years,» he said. «We spend too much on it. It doesn’t matter as much as you all think.»
The bank’s own blockchain platform, Kinexys, recently ran a test transaction on a public blockchain for the first time, settling tokenized U.S. Treasuries on Ondo Chain’s testnet.
Senate Dems Gear Up Resistance as Stablecoin Bill Meets Test Most Think Will Succeed
Bitcoin Climbs to $105K; Crypto ETF Issuer Sees 35% Upside
JPMorgan To Allow Clients To Buy Bitcoin, Says Jamie Dimon
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