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Crypto Daybook Americas: All Eyes on Jobs, Fed as Bitcoin Prepares for Breakout Rally

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23 часа ago

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Markets seem bullish ahead of the jobs report due later Friday, with bitcoin (BTC) rising toward $97,000 after stocks rose for an eighth straight day on Thursday. That gave the S&P 500 its longest rally since August as investors grew more confident that trade tensions between Washington and Beijing are cooling.

Still, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is little changed over the last 24 hours with the drop in first-quarter GDP pointing to economic strain from the trade war. While traders are now betting the Federal Reserve could cut interest-rates four times this year — one more than they’d priced in before the reciprocal tariffs were announced — personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation came in above forecasts, which limits the central bank’s room for easing, said James Butterfill, the head of research at CoinShares.

Today’s payrolls data remains a “critical piece of the puzzle,” he said.

“When the Fed eventually decides to cut rates, it is likely to do so in a knee-jerk and forceful manner — reacting to a significant deterioration in economic conditions rather than being proactive. Such a dramatic policy shift could act as a catalyst for a significant breakout rally in bitcoin, as investors seek alternative stores of value amid aggressive monetary easing,” Butterfill said.

That policy shift could align with bitcoin’s historical performance. Since 2013, the cryptocurrency has seen an average gain of 7.52% in May, according to CoinGlass data. And it’s not alone: ether (ETH), which has been significantly underperforming BTC, has posted an average gain of 27.3% in May since 2016, the best-performing month for the Ethereum blockchain’s token.

“Investor confidence is gradually returning to crypto markets following a volatile start to the year, with April seeing a rebound across majors as tariff-driven macro fears eased,” said Vijay Chetty, CEO of Eclipse. Growing regulatory clarity is an “underappreciated catalyst that will set the stage for broader institutional use cases,” Chetty added. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
    • May 5, 3 a.m.: IOTA’s Rebased network upgrade starts. Rebased moves IOTA to a new network, boosting capacity to as many as 50,000 transactions per second, offering staking rewards of 10%-15% a year and adding support for MoveVM smart contracts.
    • May 5, 11 a.m.: The Crescendo network upgrade goes live on the Kaspa (KAS) mainnet. This upgrade boosts the network’s performance by increasing the block production rate to 10 blocks per second from 1 block per second.
    • May 6: Casper Network (CSPR) launches its 2.0 mainnet upgrade, introducing faster transactions, enhanced smart contracts, and improved staking features to boost enterprise adoption.
    • May 7, 6:05 a.m.: The Pectra hard fork network upgrade will get activated on the Ethereum (ETH) mainnet at epoch 364032. Pectra combines two major components: the Prague execution layer hard fork and the Electra consensus layer upgrade.
  • Macro
    • May 2, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April employment data.
      • Nonfarm Payrolls Est. 130K vs. Prev. 228K
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.2%
    • May 2, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases Brazil April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 51.8
    • May 2, 11 a.m.: S&P Global releases Mexico April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.5
    • May 5, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Final) U.S. April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
      • Composite PMI Est. 51.2 vs. Prev. 53.5
      • Services PMI Est. 51.4 vs. Prev. 54.4
    • May 5, 10:00 a.m.: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases U.S. April economic activity data.
      • Services PMI Est. 50.6 vs. Prev. 50.8
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • May 6: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, $-0.07
    • May 8: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $2.08
    • May 8: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market
    • May 8: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Compound DAO is voting on moving 35,200 COMP (~$1.5 m) into a multisig safe to test selling covered calls on COMP for USDC, lend that USDC in Compound for extra yield, then use the returns to buy back COMP and repeat—targeting roughly 15 % annual gain. Voting ends May 2.
    • May 5, 4 p.m.: Livepeer (LPT) to host a Treasury Talk session on Discord.
  • Unlocks
    • May 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 3.10% of its circulating supply worth $53.44 million.
    • May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.56% of its circulating supply worth $13.84 million.
    • May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $9.85 million.
    • May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $79.71 million.
    • May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $62.09 million.
  • Token Launches
    • May 2: Binance to delist Alpaca Finance (ALPACA), PlayDapp (PDA), Viberate (VIB), and Wing Finance (WING).
    • May 5: Sonic (S) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • Memecoin discussions are rising, while interest in layer-1 and layer-2 tokens is declining, signaling a shift toward speculative trading behavior, according to a Santiment report on Thursday.
  • Retail investors are embracing hype-driven buying, favoring short-term gains over fundamentals.
  • Market timing may be off, as historically the best altcoin entry points occur when crowd sentiment is low — not when terms like «altseason» and «bull cycle» are trending, the report said.
  • Mentions of “buying crypto” have spiked, especially on dips, suggesting widespread eagerness and potentially premature confidence.
  • Overconfident markets often face sharp corrections, especially when traders expect nonstop gains.
  • As May begins, it remains to be seen if this altcoin surge is sustainable or simply another hype-driven blip.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC’s current ascent appears structurally fragile, with a -$30 million liquidity delta across the 1% order book despite a 2.7% price rise since the start of the month, CoinGlass data show.
  • This reduction in top-of-book liquidity as the price climbs leaves a thinner order book with an increasing the risk of slippage and volatility if momentum stalls.
  • Liquidation heatmaps reveal sizable clusters at $97.6K ($67 million) and $96.1K ($58 million), reinforcing these zones as potential inflection points for intraday, volatility-driven reversals or stop-driven extensions.
  • Binance funding rates show a sharp divergence in sentiment across major tokens, with APT, TON, UNI and XRP hitting +10.95% APR, while USDE (-29.73%), BNB (-19.06%), and SUI (-10.26%) reflect more intensive short-side pressure, Velo data shows.
  • The concentration of elevated funding among large caps indicates directional long bias, while deeply negative rates in select altcoins suggest either event-driven shorts or systematic derisking.
  • Open-interest (OI) rotation is flowing into low-cap, niche assets; with PUNDIX (+191%) and HAEDAL (+157%) leading 24-hour OI gains, according to Velo data. As open interest broadens out, market sensitivity to catalysts may increase across low to mid-cap tokens.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 2.27% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $96,817.27 (24hrs: +0.54%)
  • ETH is up 1.48% at $1,822.64 (24hrs: -0.82%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 1.39% at 2,781.37 (24hrs: -0.32%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 9 bps at 2.958%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.0093% (-10.2251% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is down 0.51% at 99.74
  • Gold is up 0.62% at $3,258.47/oz
  • Silver is unchanged at $32.38/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed +1.04% at 36,830.69
  • Hang Seng closed +1.74% at 22,504.68
  • FTSE is up 0.75% at 8,560.68
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.48% at 5,236.81
  • DJIA closed on Thursday +0.21% at 40,752.96
  • S&P 500 closed +0.63% at 5,604.14
  • Nasdaq closed +1.52% at 17,710.74
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.19% at 24,795.55
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.25% at 2,523.42
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 8 bps at 4.23%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.47% at 5,649.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.33% at 19,935.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.47% at 41,045.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 64.85 (+0.16%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.1886 (-1.0%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 847 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $49.98
  • Total Fees: 5.51 BTC / $533,450.65
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 141,430 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 29.8 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.46%

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis for May 2, 2025

  • Ether has reclaimed its previous swing low, with the $1,750 level now acting as a key support zone.
  • On the daily timeframe, price action is compressing between the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages — a setup that often precedes a directional breakout.
  • Assuming bitcoin remains in consolidation near its current resistance, ether has room to push higher, potentially retesting the prior range low around $2,100, which aligns with the 100-day EMA, adding further evidence for this as a target.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $381.6 (+0.39%), up 1.37% at $386.82 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $201.3 (-0.78%), up 0.56% at $202.42
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at $24.05 (+9.72%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.05 (+5.09%), down 0.14% at $14.03
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.77 (+7.32%), down 1.93% at $7.62
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.55 (+5.56%), up 0.58% at $8.60
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.67 (+6.12%), up 0.69% at $8.73
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.59 (+6.65%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.33 (+3.09%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $40.38 (+3.43%), up 4.95% at $42.38

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

  • Daily net flow: $422.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $39.53 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.15 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $6.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.51 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.45 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

Chart of the Day for May 2, 2025

  • Data from BitcoinCounterFlow comparing BTC’s performance from the bottom of each of the last three cycles suggests the top isn’t in yet.
  • If history is any guide, the current trajectory around day 700–800 implies we’re entering a phase that could develop into the steep rally seen in prior cycles.
  • The smoother rise this time may be a reflection of the increased institutional participation in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Retail Traders bought Stocks and ETFs last month at the fastest pace in history, to the tune of $40 Billion Sell in May? Trump appears to have just cut off ALL Trade and business with China.Milestone: TRON just crossed 10.0 B Total transactions!In the coming weeks, Circle will seamlessly upgrade World Chain’s Bridged USDC Standard implementation to natively issued USDC.

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IRS’ Crypto Leads Are Leaving the Agency After Accepting DOGE Deals

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14 часов ago

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2 мая, 2025

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The IRS lost two key directors working on crypto initiatives, Seth Wilks and Raj Mukherjee, on Friday after they accepted deferred resignation offers directed by the Department of Government Efficiency.

Wilks and Mukherjee, who both went to the IRS from the crypto industry, are technically still employees with the IRS for the next few months but they are on paid administrative leave as of Friday afternoon, two people familiar with the situation told CoinDesk. President Donald Trump’s administration, through DOGE, offered deferred resignations to a wide array of federal employees earlier this year.

Wilks, who was previously a vice president at TaxBit, and Mukherjee, who was previously ConsenSys and Binance.US’ head of tax, both joined the IRS Digital Asset Initiative in February 2024, and were tasked with helping the IRS build a better approach to crypto taxation, including leading the agency’s efforts to build reporting, compliance and enforcement programs for crypto and coordinating with the industry. They worked on an updated 1099-DA tax form shared last summer to aid U.S. persons with filing taxes tied to digital asset transactions.

The pair also oversaw parts of the agency’s efforts to draft tax rules for the crypto industry.

The IRS finalized one such rule, imposing certain data collection requirements on decentralized finance (DeFi) brokers, in the waning days of the former Joe Biden administration. This rule was overturned by Congress earlier this year under the Congressional Review Act in a joint resolution signed by Trump.

Wilks was the IRS’ executive director of digital asset strategy and development, while Mukherjee was the executive director of the digital assets office.

Both people who spoke to CoinDesk noted that the two officials had accepted voluntary buyouts but that these deferred resignations came ahead of expected cuts to IRS staff.

More than 20,000 IRS employees signed up for the deferred resignation program, the New York Times reported last month, with these employees being put on administrative leave through September.

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The SEC Can Learn From the IRS in Making Regulation Simpler for Crypto

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17 часов ago

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2 мая, 2025

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In February, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) began soliciting public input pertaining to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) — a move suggesting reform at the agency is imminent.

Since then, the SEC, in line with President Trump, has taken a far less adversarial stance towards the cryptocurrency industry, as evidenced by the appointment of crypto-friendly personnel and the abandonment of numerous lawsuits and investigations into crypto companies. But DOGE has the potential to implement further change, and interest in the SEC signals growing pressure towards regulators to reassess their approach to digital assets.

In response to the request for public input, Paul Grewal, Chief Legal Officer at Coinbase — one of the companies no longer facing a lawsuit from the SEC — proposed a policy requiring the SEC to reimburse legal costs for companies that successfully challenge enforcement efforts. The motivation for his suggestion is obvious, but the impact of DOGE on crypto will likely be a bit broader.

As Joel Khalili summarized in Wired, the SEC’s recent retreat from lawsuits represents “an early signal of the agency’s intent to work arm in arm with the industry to come up with a set of rules to govern crypto transactions and products.”

As things currently stand, the SEC’s lack of proactive guidance makes it difficult for businesses to plan long-term compliance strategies, and their enforcement actions often come after years of operation, leaving companies and their investors exposed to unforeseen legal risks. Going forward, this will likely change.

Clear Compliance Over Reactive Enforcement

Relying on enforcement instead of proactive guidance has forced companies like Coinbase, Ripple, and Celsius to spend millions in litigation to clarify their regulatory standing. But in one case against Debt Box, the SEC admitted to inaccuracies in its statements, leading a court to order the SEC to cover the company’s legal expenses — a preview of Coinbase’s suggestion. The ruling cast doubt on the agency’s credibility and highlighted concerns over its enforcement practices.

In the future, expect to see regulatory agencies – including the SEC – under increased pressure to align with the U.S. Treasury’s approach, which prioritizes clear compliance pathways over reactive enforcement. The Treasury’s digital asset guidelines are far more structured and address key areas like tax reporting, compliance and AML measures. Standardized definitions of what constitutes a security in the crypto space are essential for helping companies structure their products appropriately from the outset.

A Balancing Act

In addition to taking notes from the Treasury, the SEC can also look to the IRS for inspiration. A “safe harbor” provision for early-stage projects could encourage innovation while ensuring compliance over time, similar to proposals previously discussed by SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce. The IRS already embraced this approach, issuing temporary transitional relief for crypto taxpayers in January 2025.

The IRS historically relied on voluntary disclosure programs to bring taxpayers into compliance rather than imposing punitive actions upfront. A similar model should be applied to crypto regulation as well.

While some people assume regulation inherently hinders innovation, the opposite can be true. This is because clearly defined guardrails will entice more risk-averse entities to enter the ecosystem and help it grow. A light regulatory touch requires robust backend enforcement and can lead to unnecessary friction between regulators and businesses.

Altogether, better coordination between the SEC, Treasury, and IRS would help prevent regulatory conflicts and streamline compliance obligations for digital asset companies and stakeholders. The Treasury’s digital asset guidelines already offer a strong foundation for this type of cross-agency alignment. The current regulatory uncertainty and the SEC’s reactive enforcement approach stifles growth, while a clearer, more coordinated framework would benefit the entire ecosystem.

The Bottom Line

Between the DOGE’s request for input, the new administration’s broader commitment to digital asset reform, and Coinbase’s proposal, the stage is set for reforms aiming to make regulatory oversight more predictable. While we are in the early stages of the new administration, changes are already occurring at a staggering pace. It’s clear that DOGE’s influence on SEC policies will make an impact – especially with public discourse on these issues further strengthening the case for clearer guidelines rather than regulation by enforcement.

Of course, it’s worth noting that DOGE’s plans for the SEC will likely extend beyond crypto, just as efforts to regulate the industry extend beyond the SEC. Ultimately, it would be beneficial for the new administration, in conjunction with Congress, to create a legislative framework for the industry, so enterprises and individual taxpayers alike understand what constitutes a commodity, security, and digital asset. In other words, we must learn to walk before we run. In the meantime, the SEC should adopt a strategy that can foster growth while maintaining investor protections.

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CoinDesk Recap: Movement’s Very Bad Week

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17 часов ago

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2 мая, 2025

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This week, bitcoin climbed steadily to reach nearly $100K, amid hopes for a China-U.S. trade and better macroeconomic conditions ahead.

Institutions like Mastercard and BlackRock made important digital asset announcements.

An historic stablecoin bill neared completion in the U.S. Congress. (A former prime-mover in the House said to expect a “wicked hot summer” of legislation.)

And the Trump Family continued to dominate the crypto news cycle, raising serious conflict-of-interest questions.

At CoinDesk, however, the biggest story concerned Movement, a once-hot startup that now seems deeply troubled.

Deputy managing editor Sam Kessler published an eye-opening scoop showing that Movement Labs may have been misled into signing a market-making agreement that granted a middleman control over 66 million MOVE tokens. That deal was said to have triggered a $38 million selloff, which dumped on retail investors who had faithfully bought in. The story was especially resonant as Movement is backed by World Liberty Financial, a company tied closely to the Trump Family.

Following the story Wednesday, Coinbase suspended listing MOVE, Nik De reported, and Binance banned the market-marker Web3Port. By Thursday evening Movement Labs had suspended flamboyant co-founder Rushi Manche (Sam Reynolds reported) amid ongoing investigations into the project’s “organizational governance.”

It was quite a fall from grace for a startup that had been hotter-than-Miami Beach a few weeks ago.

In other significant news, Sam Altman’s blockchain project, World announced plans to deploy 7,500 eye-scanning orbs in U.S. cities by the end of the year and add crypto-backed loans, prediction markets, and a Visa debit card for spending WLD tokens to its product offerings. Cheyenne Ligon and Margaux Nijkerk had that news.

Meanwhile, Ligon also reported on the trial of Avraham Eisenberg, who was convicted last year on charges of wire fraud, commodities fraud and commodities manipulation charges related to the $110 million hack of Mango Markets. The new conviction relates to Eisenberg possessing child sexual abuse material in 2024.

Earnings season brought mixed results for major exchanges and facilitators. Robinhood said it expected a Q1 pullback in crypto-related revenue (Helene Braun reported). Kraken said its revenue was up 29% in the same period (Francisco Rodrigues). Strategy reported a first-quarter loss of $4.2 billion on declining bitcoin prices. But it’s still planning to raise more than $50 billion for bitcoin-buying over the next 32 months (James Van Straten).

Where do we go from here? Market signals look promising, especially if tariff fears wane. But Movement may have some crisis management to look into.

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