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Crypto Bulls Brace for Bank of Japan’s Rate Hike That Could Derail Momentum

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Most investors have their eyes set on President Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, which has the potential to be a key catalyst for bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency prices.

However, a few days later, there is a potential rate hike on the cards from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). According to a Bloomberg chart shared by analyst Michael Kramer on X, the market is currently factoring in a 90% chance of a rate hike on Jan. 24.

Previously, the BoJ rate hike caused havoc on both the traditional and digital assets market . This was a key catalyst for the Yen carry trade unwind at the start of August, which sent bitcoin tumbling to $49,000. Traders are likely bracing for another selloff this time around.

Since 2016, the BoJ has maintained negative interest rates; however, in 2024, they increased interest rates twice, from -0.1% to 0.25%. The implied rate going into the meeting is 0.45%; however, this could drastically change as Japan has an inflation report just the day before, on Jan. 23.

Headline inflation year-over-year is at 2.9%, the highest since August. A hotter-than-expected inflation print could create fears within the market, and another iteration of the Yen carry trade unwind could be on course.

Even with the remarkable strength of the DXY index, which is currently above 109, the highest level since November 2022, it has jumped from 100 from the September low.

The DXY index is following a similar trajectory to Donald Trump’s first presidential term, which saw a rally in the DXY leading into his inauguration and then fell considerably, giving risk assets a much-needed boost. The DXY index measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major foreign currencies.

The Japanese Yen is at its strongest level against the dollar since Dec. 16, at 156.

Read more: Bank of Japan Governor Hints at More Rate Hikes; BTC Drops 0.4%

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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

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Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.

June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.

COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.

The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.

Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.

The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.

Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.

Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.

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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

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Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.

Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.

The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.

Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.

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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

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XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.

One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.

On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.

XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.

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