Coinbase analysts remain optimistic for the fourth quarter, arguing that a mix of resilient liquidity, a favorable macro backdrop and supportive regulatory signals could keep the crypto market rally alive.

Bitcoin (BTC), they argue, continues to benefit from macro tailwinds and could outperform market expectations, analysts David Duong and Colin Basco said in a Wednesday report.

“Barring a shock to energy prices we think the immediate risk to disrupting the current U.S. monetary policy path is actually quite low,” the analysts wrote. On-chain demand from digital asset treasuries (DATs) is also expected to provide a floor for prices.

One lingering concern for investors is seasonality, the report said, noting six straight September declines for BTC against the dollar between 2017 and 2022.

But this pattern failed to play out in both 2023 and 2024, the analysts noted. Not only that, but the small sample size and wide dispersion of outcomes limit the usefulness of seasonal indicators.

A more meaningful factor, Coinbase said, is where we are in the DAT cycle. Publicly disclosed DATs hold over 1 million BTC ($110 billion), 4.9 million ETH ($21.3 billion) and 8.9 million SOL ($1.8 billion) as of Sept. 10.

Late entrants are now chasing altcoins further down the risk curve, which Coinbase believes puts markets in a “player-versus-player” phase, a dynamic that favors large-cap tokens but may soon lead to consolidation among smaller DAT players.

Heading into the final quarter, the exchange’s analysts maintained a constructive outlook, expecting strong liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic backdrop and regulatory momentum to keep crypto markets well supported.

Read more: Crypto Institutional Adoption Appears to Be in the Early Phases: JPMorgan