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Correlation Between Bitcoin and U.S. Stocks Reemerges: Van Straten
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Since the November 5 election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, bitcoin (BTC) is up around 47%, sharply outperforming the S&P 500’s 4% advance.
The incoming president, of course, has made clear his friendliness towards bitcoin and crypto. Also worth consideration is the Republican sweep of the Senate and House of Representatives, where laws that might affect crypto will ultimately be passed.
Andre Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise in Europe, spoke exclusively with CoinDesk about other factors affecting the divergence between bitcoin and stocks.
«My view on bitcoin versus S&P 500 is that the stock market has been negatively affected by the Fed’s hawkish rate cut in December,» said Dragosch. «The Fed revised its planned rate cuts for 2025 to 2 rate cuts only, less than previously telegraphed and also less than previously anticipated by traditional financial markets».
At the same time, the DXY index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of the major currencies, is up 5%, putting further pressure on risk assets. That might typically include a hurt on bitcoin, but Dragosch explains that it held up relatively well thanks to other factors, the ongoing bitcoin supply deficit on exchanges being among them. «Bitcoin exchange balances have continued to drift lower despite profit-taking,» he continued.
Of late though, bitcoin and the S&P 500 have again begun moving closely together, their correlation hitting 0.88 (with 0 being no correlation and 1 begin absolute correlation) over the most recent 20-day moving average.
«While on-chain factors will likely provide a significant tailwind at least until mid-2025, the deterioration in the macro picture could pose short-term risks for bitcoin as well, especially on account of the still relatively high correlation with the S&P 500,» Dragosch concluded.
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Bitcoin Slips Under $94K as Stocks Try to Shake Last Week’s Jitters
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Bitcoin (BTC) continued to slide on Monday, hurt by not just by massive bearish price action in most of the rest of crypto, but also as U.S. stocks struggle to pull out of their recent downturn.
Falling to about $93,900 as stocks closed, bitcoin is down 1.9% in the last 24 hours. Ether (ETH) is lower by 5.9% over the same time frame. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 5.1%.
Following last week’s major declines, an attempted rally by the major U.S. stock averages failed Monday afternoon, with the Nasdaq closing down another 1.2% and the S&P 500 0.5%.
The worst performer among the major cryptos was solana’s (SOL), down nearly 10% over the past 24 hours and a whopping 41% over the past month. In addition to its role in what appears to be a fading memecoin craze, SOL is also facing token unlocks in March and a 30% increase in SOL inflation due to the recent implementation of SIMD-96, which adjusted the network’s fee structure. At $151 at press time, SOL has now more than given up its post-election gains.
“Trying to communicate to folks who may be feeling complacency/denial that $95,000 is still not a bad exit price relative to where I think we could trade in 6-12 months,” Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital, a crypto hedge fund that specializes in using macroeconomic data for its trades, posted on social media.
Thompson estimated that there was an 80% chance that bitcoin won’t make new highs over the next three months and a 51% chance we won’t see new highs for even the next 12 months.
Turning to the U.S. economy, Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, said risks to the labor market are growing. Real incomes are slowing down, the housing market is getting worse, state and local governments are pulling back on spending. Worryingly, market consensus sees no economic slowdown in sight, with GDP median forecast at roughly 2.5%.
“If 2023 was about being surprised to the upside, there is more risk in 2025 of being surprised to the downside,” Dutta wrote.
“A passive tightening of monetary policy is the dominant risk and that has important implications for financial market investors,» Dutta continued. «I would anticipate a decline in longer-term interest rates and a selloff in equity prices as risk appetite wanes. For the economy, expect conditions to deteriorate in the jobs market.”
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OKX Settles U.S. DOJ Charges, Pays Over $500M Penalty and Forfeiture
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OKX, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, settled with U.S. authorities over failing to obtain a license to operate as a money transmitter, the exchange announced Monday.
Aux Cayes FinTech Co. Ltd., an OKX affiliate, is the specific party that settled with the U.S. Department of Justice, paying over $500 million in penalties and forfeited fees, a press release said.
OKX failed to secure a money transmitter license, the exchange said, without detailing which state the license might have been issued from. A DOJ press release said «OKX sought out customers in the United States, including in the Southern District of New York.»
A person familiar with the situation told CoinDesk that the settlement resolved allegations of fraudulent and non-compliant activities at the exchange that took place in past years.
The DOJ’s press release said OKX facilitated more than $5 billion in «suspicious transactions and criminal proceeds,» citing Acting U.S. Attorney Matthew Podolsky.
OKcoin, the American division of OKX, also received a subpoena issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Feb. 24 last year. CoinDesk saw the cover page of the subpoena, which refers to “Certain persons engaged in fraud and other unlawful conduct with respect to digital asset transactions.”
A second person said the CFTC probe into OKcoin relates to last year’s flash crash of the exchange’s native token following the sudden drop in the price of the OKB token on Jan. 23, 2024. OKX told users they would be compensated for losses resulting from the crash.
An internal document circulated to OKX staff in January 2024 highlighted “a new ethics and compliance helpline to provide a confidential and secure space for you to bring up concerns or issues about ethical conduct, policy violations or suspected illegal behavior.”
OKX representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment. A CFTC spokesperson declined to comment.
UPDATE (Feb. 24, 2025, 21:35 UTC): Adds additional information.
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Payments Card Issuer Infini Offers Reward for Return of Funds After $49 Million Exploit
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Infini, a prepaid payments card issuer that offers interest on deposited dollar stablecoins, warned a hacker it had “gathered critical IP and device information” after losing almost all the value locked in its wallets.
The attacker drained $49.5 million from the Hong Kong-based neobank’s wallets, according to Peckshield. The company said only on Sunday it had hit $50 million in total value locked.
The exploit came just days after Bybit, the second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, saw a hacker drain its ether cold wallet and make off with nearly $1.5 billion in crypto’s largest exploit.
“We are closely monitoring the address involved and are prepared to take immediate action to freeze any stolen funds if necessary,» Infini told the hacker in a blockchain transaction. «In an effort to resolve this matter amicably, we are willing to offer you 20% of the stolen assets should you choose to return the funds.”
Infini gave the perpetrator 48 hours to “facilitate a swift resolution,” and that failure to respond means it will “have no choice” but to continue its investigation in collaboration with law enforcement.
According to Cyvers, the exploit occurred after a developer who helped set up its smart contract kept admin rights over it. More than three months later, they leveraged these rights and drained the funds to a wallet funded over cryptocurrency mixer Tornado Cash.
The neobank’s founder, Christian Li, has pledged to cover the full loss from his personal funds and took responsibility for the incident.
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