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Copper, Once Positively Correlated to Bitcoin, Nears Record High. Will BTC Follow Suit?

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Copper, recognized as a reliable economic indicator for decades, is nearing record highs.

Seasoned crypto traders may recall periods when bitcoin (BTC) and copper exhibited a strong positive correlation and may quickly draw bullish conclusions from the recent rally in the red metal. If that’s not enough, BTC’s best years have been characterized by a rally in the copper-gold ratio, which is beginning to rise.

However, the latest copper rally is driven by factors other than positive cues from global economy, warranting caution while seeing it as a bullish indicator for risk assets, including BTC.

According to ING, copper’s year-to-date increase of 12% to $5.10 per pound on COMEX has been primarily driven by President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, which pose risks to both the U.S. and global economies. These aggressive policy moves likely led the Federal Reserve to lower growth forecasts while raising inflation projections this week.

That’s because the rally in copper is mainly led by President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade tariffs, which pose a risk to the U.S. and the global economy.

«Copper is up around 12% so far this year, driven mostly by uncertainty over Trump’s trade policies. Tariff news is likely to continue to dictate price direction in the months ahead,» analysts at ING said in a note to clients on March 18.

The not-so-bullish nature of the ongoing copper rally is also explained by losses sideways trading in the Aussie dollar-U.S. dollar exchange rate.

Australia is the world’s 7th largest producer of copper and the 3rd largest exporter of copper. As such, the AUD and copper prices have historically boasted a correlation coefficient of over 0.80. But it’s not working this time, probably due to the tariffs-led surge in copper.

Don’t forget the recent China stimulus

The other factors powering the copper rally, such as the recent China stimulus, could be positive for bitcoin and risk-taking in general. China, the world’s factory, is the largest importer of commodities.

Early this week, Beijing announced its most potent plan in decades to boost domestic consumption as it battles external uncertainties posed by Trump’s tariffs. The plan noted a direct link between consumption, affordable childcare and the country’s long-running property crisis.

«The policy package includes efforts to increase household income, spur spending, and support population growth. Fresh data was also released for the first two months of the year showing Chinese consumption, investment and industrial production exceeding estimates,» ING analysts noted, explaining this week’s copper price rise.

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Solana (SOL) Surges 6% on Bullish Reversal and DeFi Activity Toward $180

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The cryptocurrency market continues to respond to broader economic factors as Solana demonstrates resilience amid global trade uncertainties. SOL’s price action formed a clear uptrend with higher lows and higher highs, breaking through key resistance levels with institutional-grade volume suggesting accumulation despite a brief 1.35% correction in recent hours. Meanwhile, analysts point to the $166.82 level as a crucial short-term pivot, with potential for significant upward movement if SOL can maintain momentum above $177 resistance.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • SOL climbed from a low of $159.69 to a high of $173.03, representing a significant range of $13.34 (8.35%).
  • Price action formed a clear uptrend with higher lows and higher highs, breaking through key resistance at $166.87.
  • Above-average volume was observed around the $167-$170 zone, indicating strong buyer interest.
  • Notable support established at $160.34, where buyers stepped in with conviction during early hours.
  • Final four hours showed accelerated momentum with volume spikes exceeding the 24-hour average, suggesting institutional accumulation.
  • A brief downward correction occurred in the last 60 minutes, falling from $172.19 to $169.87 (1.35% decline).
  • The $170.00 psychological level briefly acted as support before failing.
  • Final 30 minutes showed decreasing volatility and volume, potentially indicating exhaustion of selling pressure.

External References

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Circle Has Explored Potential $5B Sale to Coinbase or Ripple Instead of IPO: Report

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Stablecoin issuer Circle, which filed for an initial public offering (IPO) last month, has explored the alternative of a sale to crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) or payments company Ripple, according to a Monday report by Fortune.

The New York-based issuer of USDC, the second-largest stablecoin, took part in informal talks over a potential sale from which it was seeking at least $5 billion, Fortune reported, citing people who asked not to be identified.

This figure would be line with the company’s valuation by investment banks JPMorgan and Citi, which Circle had hired to help with the IPO.

Coinbase holds a minority share in Circle, and the two companies share revenue from USDC’s reserve interest income. Ripple recently debuted its own stablecoin, RLUSD. An offer by Ripple to buy Circle was rejected, Bloomberg reported last month.

Circle said in an emailed statement that it «is not for sale,» and remains committed to going public, Fortune said. The company aborted a previous attempt at going public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger in 2021.

Read More: Coinbase Shares Could See $16B of Buying Pressure From S&P 500 Index Inclusion: Bernstein

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RWA Platform TokenFi Is Tokenizing the Floki Minibot

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TokenFi, a sister project to Floki that focuses on real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, is set to tokenize the Floki Minibot M1 — an AI-powered robot built by Rice Robotics — marking what the team says is the first tokenization of a consumer AI robot.

The move coincides with the launch of TokenFi’s RWA tokenization module on May 23. A presale for the Minibot M1’s token will go live the same day, initially for users on a whitelist compiled by Rice AI and select Floki ecosystem participants.

The presale ties into broader plans to launch Rice AI’s RICE token and conduct an airdrop for Floki (FLOKI) and TokenFi (TOKEN) holders, according to the announcement. Further details are expected post-sale, the team told CoinDesk.

The Floki Minibot is a branded version of Rice Robotics’ compact delivery and companion robot, which operates autonomously and is built on the RICE AI system. Rice Robotics counts Nvidia, Softbank, Mitsui Fudosan and 7-Eleven Japan among its partners and clients.

«This is the first time in history that an AI robot will be tokenized,” TokenFi said in a statement to CoinDesk. “It’s a phenomenal moment for TokenFi, the RWA industry, and the AI robotics space.”

TokenFi aims to be a leading RWA infrastructure provider, allowing companies to tokenize real-world items — from assets to equity and now robotics — using blockchain rails.

Floki developers said earlier this year that they believe Rice Robotics is “well-positioned for growth” in the AI robotics sector, citing industry projections that peg the market at over $100 billion by 2030.

TOKEN has gained 19% in the past 24 hours, data from CoinGecko show, alongside a jump in major tokens. The CoinDesk 20 Index, a measure of the broader crypto market, has added 3%.

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