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Coinbase Shares Could See $16B of Buying Pressure From S&P 500 Index Inclusion: Bernstein

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Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) is soaring 16% early Tuesday after the Monday evening announcement of its inclusion into the S&P 500.

COIN will be added to the S&P 500 index after the close on Friday, replacing Discover Financial Services (DFS) which is being acquired by Capital One (COF).

Wall Street brokerage Bernstein estimates the move could lead to roughly $16 billion of buying pressure for Coinbase — around $9 billion from passive funds linked to the S&P 500 and $7 billion from active allocations.

Coinbase is the «first and only crypto company to join the S&P 500,» analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote.

Chhugani has an outperform rating on Coinbase shares with a $310 price target, or about another 30% upside from the current $240.

Investment bank KBW estimates that S&P 500 passive funds will need to buy 36 million Coinbase shares for index inclusion, which is about 4 days of average buying volume.

KBW further noted that as of April 30, 9.9 million Coinbase shares were held short, which is 1.4 days to cover.

«Since 2017, financial 500 adds have outperformed by 5.2% on the day after announcement,» KBW said, and Coinbase’s addition could pave the way for other crypto firms to join the index.

Read more: Coinbase Shares Jump 8% on S&P 500 Inclusion

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Cantor Equity Partners Discloses $458M Bitcoin Acquisition

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Cantor Equity Partners (CEP) disclosed a $458.7 million bitcoin BTC acquisition as part of a pending merger with Twenty One Capital, the BTC-focused investment vehicle backed by Tether, Bitfinex, and SoftBank, according to a regulatory filing on Tuesday.

The transaction is structured through a complex business combination involving Tether Investments, the El Salvador affiliate of stablecoin issuer Tether, and iFinex, the parent company of Bitfinex, the filing shows. As part of the deal, Tether purchased some 4,812 BTC at an average price of $95,319, with the tokens held in escrow and later to be sold to the merged company.

Blockchain data shows that the escrow wallet, disclosed in the filing, received the tokens from a Bitfinex hot wallet on May 9. The wallet’s bitcoin holdings are worth $500 million at current prices, according to Arkham data.

(Arkham)

Twenty One Capital is being launched by Brandon Lutnick—the son of U.S. Commerce Secretary and Cantor Fitzgerald chairman Howard Lutnick—via a SPAC structure using Cantor Equity Partners. The company will be led by Strike CEO Jack Mallers and majority-owned by Tether and Bitfinex’s parent company, iFinex. SoftBank will take a significant minority stake, the companies said

The company said it plans to have more than 42,000 BTC at launch.

CEP shares are higher by 3.7% in after hours trading.

Read more: Strike CEO Mallers to Lead Bitcoin Investment Company Backed by Tether, Softbank, Brandon Lutnick

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Bitcoin Eyes $105K as Coinbase Surges 24%; Rally Has More Room, Says Analyst

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Bitcoin BTC climbed back above $104,000 on Tuesday with welcome fresh inflation data, President Trump’s bullish outlook on financial markets, and Coinbase’s inclusion into the S&P 500 among catalysts for the advance.

April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in cooler than anticipated, which may allay pressure on the Federal Reserve anxious about inflation due to tariffs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled speech on Thursday could provide further policy guidance.

The upbeat mood was further lifted by Donald Trump, who told attendees at the Saudi–U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh that markets «could go a lot higher,.».

Bitcoin (BTC) nearly touched $105,000 before pulling back, at press time trading 2.4% higher over the past 24 hours at around $104,400. Most altcoins in the CoinDesk 20 Index outperformed. Ethereum’s ether ETH continued its resurgence advancing over 9% to $2,700. Restaking protocol Eigenlayer’s governance token EIGEN and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol EtherFi’s native token ETHFI booked more than 20-30% daily gains.

CoinDesk 20 Index (CoinDesk Indices)

Stocks added to their recent gains, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up 1.6% and 0.75%, respectively, at the session close. Nasdaq-listed crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) surged 24% during the day as the stock is set to benefit from being included in the S&P 500 index. The change could unleash $16 billion in buying pressure for shares, Jefferies forecasted.

Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said that the crypto market is still digesting last week’s gains, but the rally has further momentum. “Currently, the market appears to be pausing for breath, yet the prevailing sentiment in recent headlines suggests this rally still has room to grow,” Kruger said.

He pointed to a rebound in global risk appetite and a growing number of institutional tailwinds. “One notable factor is the increasing mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency, as evidenced by developments in U.S. financial markets. Coinbase’s inclusion in the S&P 500 marks a historic milestone, establishing it as the first crypto-native company to join this prestigious index,” Kruger said.

He also cited improving sentiment around regulation. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has pledged to make the U.S. a hub for cryptocurrency innovation, which Kruger believes could unlock a new wave of institutional interest if followed by meaningful policy clarity.

Paul Howard, senior director at trading firm Wincent, echoed that view, saying that while altcoins are tracking the broader rally, institutional capital is likely to become more selective. “This evolving landscape appears to be laying the groundwork for increased institutional participation,” he said in a Telegram message. “The more resilient altcoin projects could benefit, while weaker ones may gradually phase out.”

New BTC record next month?

While bitcoin is less than 5% from its January record prices, Bitfinex analysts noted that neutral funding rates and stable trading volumes show no signs of market froth.However, BTC is facing resistance at around the $104,000-$106,000 zone, making a short-term consolidation likely with key support level at around $98,000, they added.»BTC has moved up sharply in the past few weeks and we expect a period of consolidation, meaning a new all-time high could be delayed to June as supply/demand stabilises above $100,000,» Bitfinex analysts wrote.

Zooming out for the next months, Bitfinex analysts said medium and long-term setups remain decisively bullish, setting a $150,000-$180,000 price target for 2025-2026.

«Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is the strongest it has ever been,» they wrote. «With sovereign and institutional adoption advancing, ETF rails expanding globally, and the US framing crypto policy more positively, BTC is evolving into a global macro reserve asset.»

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DeFi Savings Protocol Sky Slumps to $5M Loss as USDS Interest Payments Wipe Out Profit

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DeFi savings protocol Sky posted a first-quarter loss of $5 million after interest payments to token holders more than doubled, according to a report created by Sky contributors from Steakhouse Financial.

The loss is a stark turnaround from the previous quarter, when Sky, formerly known as MakerDAO, registered a $31 million profit. The reason for the 102% increase in interest payments is the decision to incentivize use of the protocol’s newer Sky dollar stablecoin (USDS) over the existing DAI.

«The Sky Savings Rate was kept very high at 12.5% relative to the rest of the market, driving massive inflows» Rune Christensen, co-founder of Sky, told CoinDesk over Telegram. When Sky began lowering interest rates to 4.5% in February, a lot of investors stuck around, he said.

The situation is a double-edged sword for the protocol, which was among the first cohort of decentralized finance apps to spring up on Ethereum in 2017.

Sky operates similar to a traditional bank. It needs to lend to others at a rate higher than it pays its savers.

However, offering higher rates on USDS without a corresponding increase in demand for the stablecoin is hurting the protocol’s profitability, PaperImperium, governance liaison at blockchain research and development company GFX Labs, told CoinDesk over Telegram.

«USDS is a major drag on earnings,» he said. «DAI makes money. USDS, not so much.»

The push toward USDS is part of Sky’s so-called Endgame plan, an initiative led by Christensen aimed at transforming the protocol into a more decentralized and resilient system.

No new demand?

When Sky rebranded from MakerDAO and launched USDS in August as part of Endgame, the plan was that the new stablecoin would appeal to a different set of users than DAI.

USDS was designed to better comply with regulations and financial reporting requirements. It was targeted toward sophisticated investors like hedge funds, family offices and other institutions looking to dip their toes into decentralized finance.

But it’s unclear if USDS has been able to attract a substantial number of new users.

The returns investors can earn on USDS comapred to DAI is different: USDS pays out 4.5%, while DAI yields 2.75%.

Many investors swapped their DAI for USDS, meaning Sky had pay out more to people who previously were happy to earn a lower yield or, in many cases, no yield at all, PaperImperium said.

To be sure, the report said the combined supply of USDS and DAI has increased 57% since the start of the quarter. But a large part of this increase is from Ethena, the synthetic dollar protocol. It has piled over $450 million into staked USDS, and passes the yield on to those who stake its own stablecoin, USDe.

Over the past week, Ethena has switched some of its reserves from USDS to USDtb — a stablecoin backed by BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund, or BUIDL.

The move means there’s less USDS in circulation. But it may also benefit Sky by reducing the amount of interest the protocol must pay out.

Read more: MakerDAO’s Christensen Hopes for ‘Firm Decision’ as MKR Holders Vote on Sky Brand

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