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Coinbase Q4 Earnings Expected to Show Best Volume Since 2021

The fourth quarter was a good one for crypto and Wall Street analysts expect leading U.S. exchange Coinbase (COIN) to have posted a big jump in earnings from the prior three months.
Revenue for the fourth quarter is expected to have been $1.8 billion, according to FactSet, up from $1.26 billion in the third quarter. Earnings-per-share are estimated to have risen to $1.99 from $0.41.
Maybe more importantly, thanks to the major rally across crypto following Donald Trump’s presidential election victory, analysts expect exchange volume to have risen to $195.9 billion in the year’s final three months from $185.3 billion in the third quarter. That $195.9 billion figure would be the strongest quarterly result since the fourth quarter of 2021.
“We maintain our bullish thesis on COIN, seeing the company well positioned to benefit as crypto begins a potential transition into a new era,” analysts at Citi bank wrote in a note.
The bank has a buy rating on the stock and this week increased its price target to $350 from $275. Shares on Tuesday are trading at $270, ahead nearly 90% from the year-ago level. The Citi team, however, does expect Coinbase to report fourth quarter revenue of $1.7 billion, missing the $1.8 billion consensus estimate.
The November election was a “monumental catalyst for the crypto ecosystem,» wrote JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington, who nevertheless remains neutral on the shares. He sees fourth quarter revenue at $1.77 billion, also a miss from the $1.8 billion estimate.
Outlook on 2025
While the final months of 2024 had many catalysts for crypto and thus Coinbase, 2025 is hard to predict as policy changes typically take some time to go into effect, say some Wall Street analysts.
“For [2025], we assume static crypto prices and factor more normalized volumes resulting in 6% YoY transaction revenue growth vs. consensus of 3% growth,” Citi said.
“Not unlike in the past, we expect the stock to remain as a ‘risk-on’ play throughout 2025 and will likely remain volatile around macro developments and swings in market sentiment,» Citi continued. «That being said, we expect the next 1-2 years to be highly formative for Coinbase’s business model/competitive strategy, as well as for the greater digital asset space.”
One of Coinbase’s main priorities over the past year has been to diversify its revenue stream, 50% of which still comes from trading fees. Retail traders, which pay the highest trading fee, still have not returned to the same levels seen in 2021, according to research firm Kaiko. The share of volume coming from that clientele shrank to just 18%, down from 40% in 2021, which continues to weigh on transaction revenue, Kaiko said.
According to Citi, Coinbase could solve this issue in 2025 by leaning further into the tokenization of assets, embedded smart contract applications and Web3, the potential efficiencies in cross-border and remittance, as well as using the blockchain as an AI governance tool, among others.
“In our view, the next evolution for Coinbase’s growth trajectory will rely on utility… an area with many proofs-of-concepts, but perhaps waiting to be unlocked with clearer rules,” the bank’s analysts wrote.
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London Stock Exchange Unveils Blockchain-Based Platform for Private Funds

The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) said it facilitated the first transaction on a new blockchain-based platform for private funds.
LSEG’s Digital Markets Infrastructure (DMI), built using Microsoft Azure, is designed to use blockchain technology across the full lifecycle of an asset, from issuance to settlement, with greater scale and efficiencies than existing systems, according to a Monday announcement.
Investment manager MembersCap and digital asset exchange Archax were onboarded as DMI’s first clients and conducted the first transaction, which raised money for MembersCap’s MCM Fund 1.
LSEG said it will ensure DMI works with current market services in blockchain technology as well as traditional finance (TradFi).
DMI and its first transaction are «significant milestones demonstrating the appetite for end-to-end, interoperable, regulated financial markets» blockchain technology, Dark Hajdukovic, LSEG’s head of digital markets infrastructure, said in the statement.
TradFi exchanges in numerous markets have been embedding blockchain technology into their platforms as a means of increasing efficiency and reducing costs. Last week, the Nasdaq filed a proposal with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to tokenize stocks on its exchange for trading on the blockchain with trades assigned the same priority as the legacy method.
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Bitcoin Cohorts Return to Net Selling as Market Continues to Consolidate

Glassnode data shows that all wallet cohorts have returned to distribution mode, with a net selling of bitcoin, according to the Accumulation Trend Score breakdown by wallet cohort.
This metric disaggregates the Accumulation Trend Score to show the relative behavior of different groups of wallet. It measures the strength of accumulation for each balance size based on both the entities’ size and the volume of coins acquired over the past 15 days. (For more details on the methodology, see this Academy entry.)
- A value closer to 1 signals accumulation by that cohort.
- A value closer to 0 signals distribution.
Exchanges, miners and other similar entities are excluded from the calculation.
Currently, all cohorts, from wallets holding less than one bitcoin to those holding more than 10,000, are net sellers. This follows last week’s rally, when some whales — most notably the 10-100 BTC and 1,000-10,000 BTC cohorts were buying. They have since flipped back to selling.
Bitcoin was recently hovering near $117,000 after Asia’s trading session pushed it up from $115,000 dollars over the weekend. Over the past three months, Asia has consistently driven bitcoin roughly 10 percent higher, according to Velo data. In contrast, the European trading session has been marked by pullbacks, which has been seen on Monday so far. In addition, bitcoin is down more than 10% in the EU market over the past three months.
Overall, the market remains in consolidation, a trend likely to persist through September. On current data, the $107,000 marked at the start of September still appears to be the most probable bottom.
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Memecoins Under Pressure as SHIB, Dogecoin Slide After Shibarium Loses $2.4M in Hack

Top meme tokens traded under pressure as a multimillion dollar hack of Shiba Inu’s layer-2 network, Shibarium, dented investor confidence in joke cryptocurrencies.
On Sunday, Shibarium fell victim to a flash loan attack on its validator system, which drained about $2.4 million in ether (ETH) and SHIB. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index has dropped 6.6% in the past 24 hours. The broader market CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is down just 2.3%.
The attacker borrowed 4.6 million BONE, the governance token for the Shiba Inu ecosystem, often linked to the decentralized exchange (DEX) ShibaSwap, through a flash loan to gain control of the majority of validator keys. The keys act as gatekeepers of the network, confirming transactions and ensuring security.
With that control, the attacker was able to game the system into approving unauthorized transactions and walk away with a large amount of crypto assets from the bridge that connects Shibarium with the Ethereum blockchain. The process is akin to someone temporarily taking over a bank’s security system to approve unauthorized withdrawals. A flash loan is a loan raised with no upfront collateral and returns the borrowed assets within the same blockchain transaction.
The Shiba inu team was able to prevent a bigger, more serious breach because the BONE tokens used to gain control were reportedly tied to validator 1 and remained locked by the staking rules.
Nevertheless, markets reacted negatively breach, which again underscores the perennial security issues with blockchain technology.
Memecoins drop, broader market bid
SHIB fell by the most in three weeks on Sunday (UTC), losing 4% $0.00001369, and has continued to weaken to trade recently at $0.00001359. The cryptocurrency experienced considerable volatility throughout the 23-hour trading window ended Sept. 15 at 02:00 UTC, with the aggregate range encompassing $0.000006191, a 4% oscillation from peak to trough.
The session commenced with pre-dawn fragility as SHIB retreated from $0.000014156 to establish a pivotal trough of $0.000013547 at 14:00 UTC. Volume of 1.064 trillion tokens surpassed the 24-hour mean, signaling robust distribution pressure and prospective capitulation, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
The BONE token, which initially doubled to over 36 cents, is now down over 2% on a 24-hour basis, trading at around 20 cents.
According to the technical analysis model:
- SHIB established a critical underpinning at $0.000013547 during elevated volume selling pressure exceeding 1.064 trillion tokens.
- The token constructed successive higher lows and consolidation parameters between $0.000013600-$0.000013780.
- Recovery momentum is demonstrated by ascending channel formations with sustained higher lows, indicating potential continuation towards the $0.000014000 resistance.
- Volume patterns exceeded 24-hour averages during the decline phase, confirming potential capitulation levels.
- Terminal hour trading exhibited decisive upward momentum with 1% appreciation, confirming a breach above the resistance threshold.
Large DOGE transfers add to bearish sentiment
Meanwhile, SHIB’s peer dogecoin (DOGE) fell 4% to 27.80 cents on Sunday and has since lost further 5% to 27.36 cents, according CoinDesk data.
A massive transfer of DOGE to a centralized exchange likely added to the bearish mood in the market. According to Whale Alert, crypto exchange OKX received 119,306,143 DOGE, worth over $34 million, from an unknown wallet. Such large transfers are typically associated with an intention to liquidate holdings.
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