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Coinbase Earnings Pain Likely as Retail Activity Slumps, Wall Street Analysts Warn

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Coinbase (COIN) is heading into its first-quarter earnings report on shaky ground, with four Wall Street analysts expecting a miss as the retail trading lull is likely to pressure the crypto exchange’s most profitable business lines.

The company is scheduled to report first-quarter results on Thursday post-market. The analysts are projecting earnings per share (EPS) falling to $1.93 from $2.26 in the fourth quarter and revenue dropping to $2.1 billion from $2.27 billion, according to FactSet data.

In the year-earlier first quarter, it reported EPS of $4.40 and revenue of $1.2 billion. Trading volume is expected to land around the $403.8 billion mark vs. $439 billion in the fourth quarter.

J.P. Morgan cut its EPS estimate to $1.59, citing a 10% drop in Coinbase’s trading volume and a 17% slide in total crypto market cap during the quarter. Adjusted for crypto asset losses, they see EPS at $2.39, supported in part by controlled expenses and steady subscription revenue.

Barclays and Compass Point see deeper trouble. Barclays slashed its revenue and EBITDA forecasts, saying the market has cooled sharply since January despite stablecoin growth. It pegs retail volumes at $69 billion, significantly below the Street’s mean estimate of $79.8 billion.

Compass Point, more bearish still, downgraded the stock to sell, projecting transaction revenue of $1.24 billion, 7% below the consensus. It argues that Coinbase is losing retail share to decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and warns of further pain in the second quarter.

Popular trading platform Robinhood, last week, reported a 13% drop in transaction-based revenue from the fourth quarter as markets cooled in the first three months of the year.

Stablecoins to the rescue?

The one area of optimism: stablecoins.

Coinbase’s revenue from USDC surged as the stablecoin’s market cap climbed 42% during the quarter, helping bolster subscription revenue. Barclays estimates $304 million in first-quarter USDC-related revenue, and even the skeptics at Compass Point acknowledge this helped offset falling staking income due to the slide in ether’s price.

Oppenheimer cut its volume forecast to $380 billion from $440 billion, but noted that Coinbase gained U.S. spot trading market share. That’s a positive sign, but one that may not matter if retail traders keep sitting on their hands.

There’s also growing concern about longer-term competitive pressures. Analysts noted that decentralized exchanges — especially those operating on faster and cheaper blockchains like Solana and Coinbase’s own Base — are drawing in retail users looking to trade a wider array of tokens. While Coinbase’s U.S. market share is up, its dominance as a centralized, regulated exchange may not be enough to fend off this shift.

Looking ahead, analysts caution that a near-term rebound in trading may be slow to materialize, especially with retail traders often hesitant to re-enter the market until they recoup earlier losses.

Shares of Coinbase are down 23% year-to-date, trading at $198.06, while bitcoin is up 3.8% since the beginning of the year at $97,023.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Solana’s 18 Month Long Bull Run Against Ether is Over; XRP Ends Mini-Uptrend

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This is a daily technical analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Programmable blockchain Solana is on course to flip its rival and leading smart contract blockchain Ethereum in terms of market capitalization, several observers have said it in recent months.

However, for now, Ethereum’s native token ether ETH seems to have an upper hand over Solana’s SOL SOL , according to technical analysis.

The SOL/ETH ratio has dived out of an upward sloping trendline connecting lows in September 2023, June 2024 and December 2024, per data source TradingView. In other words, tables have turned in ETH’s favor and the token could outperform SOL in the near-term.

SOL/ETH ratio. (TradingView)

Additionally, the weekly chart MACD histogram is printing red, indicating a strengthening of the downside momentum.

The immediate support is seen at 0.055 (the Feb. 25 low). The pair needs to move back above the Ichimoku cloud to negate the SOL bearish outlook.

XRP loses uptrend

Another coin showing a shift in market trend is XRP, the cryptocurrency designed for cross-border payments.

XRP has dived out of a bullish ascending channel, marking the recovery from the early April lows near $1.6.

XRP's daily chart. (TradingView)

The breakdown has exposed support at $2, which acted as floor several times early this year. Should the buyers fail to defend that, a deeper slide to $1.60 could be seen.

On the higher side, the recent high of $2.65 is the level to beat for the bulls.

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Vaulta, Fosun Team Up to Power Blockchain Infrastructure in Hong Kong

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Vaulta, formerly known as EOS Network, and its digital banking platform have teamed up with Fosun Wealth Holdings to bring blockchain infrastructure to Hong Kong’s financial sector, the companies said.

The partnership centers around “FinChain,” a virtual asset business launched by Fosun Wealth Holdings, which is part of the Fosun International conglomerate.

That conglomerate includes various businesses, including regional insurance and healthcare leaders in Europe, Asia, and the Americas.

Vaulta will supply its full BankingOS suite, while exSat, Vaulta’s digital banking platform, will serve as the on-chain banking layer for asset issuance, yield generation, and crypto payments, according to a press release shared with CoinDesk.

The deal allows Vaulta and exSat to tap into Fosun’s existing financial licenses and real-world asset (RWA) issuance capabilities, giving them a regulatory springboard to scale blockchain-native banking services.

For Zhao Chen, Director of Digital Assets at Fosun Wealth, the collaboration brings the necessary infrastructure to roll out next-gen financial products.

«Vaulta and exSat bring the product vision and digital banking capabilities we need to make FinChain a reality,» he said in the announcement.

The initiative is part of Vaulta’s broader rebrand and expansion into institutional-grade blockchain finance. The partnership is expected to lead to more collaborations focused on Web3 financial infrastructure across Asia and beyond.

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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin, Ether Rise After Court Nixes Trump’s Tariffs

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC rose and stock index futures surged early Thursday after a U.S. court declared President Donald Trump’s broad-based tariffs regime invalid. The positive sentiment was buoyed by AI giant Nvidia’s upbeat earnings.

On-chain data showed large wallets, those holding over 10,000 BTC, have shifted to selling from buying as the largest cryptocurrency holds close to its record high, with an increase in exchange deposits also pointing to selling pressure. Meanwhile, options market data signaled potential for volatility ahead of Friday’s monthly settlement.

Ether ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, jumped to $2,780, the highest since Feb. 24, consistent with the bullish signals from the derivatives market. The token has been bid this week, supposedly on SharpLink’s $425 million Treasury plan. Notably, U.S.-listed spot ether ETFs saw a net inflow of $84.89 million on Wednesday, extending their streak to eight consecutive days.

Canada-listed investment firm Sol Strategies said it filed a preliminary prospectus with local securities regulators to raise up to $1 billion to boost its investment in the Solana ecosystem. Still, SOL was flattish at around $170.

In the broader market, TON, PEPE and FLOKI led other coins higher while FARTCOIN, PI and JUP nursed most losses. Open interest in TON perpetual futures surged 33% to $190 million, clocking the highest since Feb. 18.

Stablecoin issuer Circle froze wallets connected to the Libra token containing millions of dollars worth of USDC. Metaplanet issued $21M in bonds to finance more bitcoin purchases.

In traditional markets, some investment banks said Trump has other tools to sidestep the court ruling on tariffs. Yields on the longer duration Treasury notes ticked higher, suggesting dollar strength. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • May 29, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases April unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 6.9% vs. Prev. 7%
    • May 29, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases Q1 GDP data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2nd estimate) Est. -0.3% vs. Prev. 2.4%
      • GDP Price Index QoQ (2nd estimate) Est. 3.7% vs. Prev. 2.3%
      • GDP Sales QoQ (2nd estimate) Est. -2.5% vs. Prev. 3.3%
    • May 29, 2 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will deliver a speech at the 5th Annual Federal Reserve Board Macro-Finance Workshop (virtual). Livestream link.
    • May 30, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases Q1 GDP data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 1.4% vs. Prev. 0.2%
      • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 3.2% vs. Prev. 3.6%
    • May 30, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases April unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.2%
    • May 30, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases Q1 GDP data.
      • GDP Growth Rate Annualized Est. 1.7% vs. Prev. 2.6%
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 0.6%
    • May 30, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases April consumer income and expenditure data.
      • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0%
      • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.6%
      • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0%
      • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.2% vs. Prev. 2.3%
      • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.5%
      • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.7%
    • May 30, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (final) May U.S. consumer sentiment data.
      • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 51 vs. Prev. 52.2
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • None in the near future.

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • May 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $24.43 million.
    • June 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.32% of its circulating supply worth $160.58 million.
    • June 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.34% of its circulating supply worth $11.18 million.
    • June 12: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $15.83 million.
    • June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $60.96 million.
  • Token Launches
    • June 1: Staking rewards for staking ERC-20 OM on MANTRA Finance end.
    • June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends.
    • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN), & Synapse (SYN)

Conferences

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • Markets on the Ethereum-based Cork Protocol remain paused after Wednesday’s $12 million smart-contract exploit.
  • The attacker manipulated the smart contact’s exchange-rate function by issuing fake tokens, stealing 3,761.8 wrapped staked ether (wstETH) in the process.
  • The exploit marked another attack on the decentralized finance (DeFi) industry just days after Sui-based Cetus Protocol lost $223 million to an exploit.
  • TRM Labs estimates that $2.2 billion was stolen in crypto exploits and hacks in 2024.
  • Ether remains unperturbed by the exploit, leading the market today on the back of renewed institutional interest and spot ETF flows. It is up 3.8% in the past 24 hours while bitcoin is down by 0.17%.

Derivatives Positioning

  • TRX, XMR, ETH, LTC and BNB led major cryptocurrencies’ growth in perpetual futures open interest.
  • Funding rates for majors, except TON, signal bullish sentiment, but nothing extraordinary.
  • On the CME, ETH annualized one-month futures basis topped 10%, while BTC lagged at 8.7%.
  • Signs of caution emerged on Deribit, with front-end BTC skew flipping to puts and ETH’s call skew softening. Block flows on Paradigm featured demand for short-dated BTC puts.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 1.15% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $108,594.41 (24hrs: -0.29%)
  • ETH is up 3.9% at $2,738.04 (24hrs: +3.63%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 2.21% at 3,278.84 (24hrs: +0.66%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 3.1%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0057% (6.3006% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is up 0.12% at 99.99
  • Gold is up 0.32% at $3,304.20/oz
  • Silver is up 1.24% at $33.41/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed +1.88% at 38,432.98
  • Hang Seng closed +1.35% at 23,573.38
  • FTSE is unchanged at 8,724.05
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,378.39
  • DJIA closed on Wednesday -0.58% at 42,098.70
  • S&P 500 closed -0.56% at 5,888.55
  • Nasdaq closed -0.51% at 19,100.94
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 26,283.50
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.76 at 2,599.53
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 6 bps at 4.54%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.53% at 5,993.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 2.03% at 21,814.25
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.96% at 42,576.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 63.71 (-0.06%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02517 (1.12%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 910 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $57.0
  • Total Fees: 8.03 BTC / $868,310
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 152,995 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 32.8 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.30%

Technical Analysis

VIRTUAL token's price chart. (TradingView)

  • The VIRTUAL token has topped the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January-April crash.
  • The break out above the widely tracked resistance could entice more buyers, yielding a bigger rally.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $364.25 (-2.14%), +2.43% at $373.09 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $254.29 (-4.55%), +3.01% at $261.95
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$28 (-6.57%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.86 (-9.61%), +4.04% at $15.46
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.38 (-8.32%), +2.86% at $8.62
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.78 (-4.43%), +2.97% at $11.10
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.11 (-7.61%), +3.62% at $9.44
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $17.27 (-5.32%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $41.32 (-4.77%), +2.95% at $42.54
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $25.94 (-25.35%), +11.6% at $28.95

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $432.7 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $45.31 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.21 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $84.9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.9 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.57 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

MOVE index. (TradingView)

  • The MOVE index, which measures the volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, has dropped to the lowest level since March.
  • If it drops further, a continued decline is likely to ease financial conditions, greasing the bitcoin bull run.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

There's a new trade on Wall Street called the STRK perpetual preferred at all time high today. 28% return in less than 4 months. 8.0% dividend yield.MSTR is going after 1% of a $300 trillion debt market (will grow into a $600 trillion market).Sitting Vice President of United States today…There are folks who still think this Bitcoin cycle has been lacklustre...

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