The price action for XRP and bitcoin (BTC) resembles a tightly compressed spring on the verge of uncoiling with a sudden release of energy.

That’s the message from a key volatility indicator called Bollinger Bandwidth. Bollinger Bands are volatility bands set at plus two and minus two standard deviations above and below the 20-period moving average (SMA) of an asset’s market price. The bandwidth measures the space between these bands as a percentage of the 20-day moving average.

In the case of XRP, the Bollinger bandwidth has narrowed to its lowest level since October 2024 on the 4-hour chart, where each candle represents price action for a four-hour period. The 4-hour chart interval is quite popular in the 24/7 crypto market, allowing traders to analyze and predict short-term price movements. Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart mirrors the Bollinger bandwidth pattern in XRP.

The long-held belief is that tighter Bollinger bandwidth, reflecting a quiet period in the market, is akin to a compressed spring ready for significant movement.

During these calm phases, the market accumulates energy that is eventually released once a clear direction is established, often leading to dramatic rallies or sharp price declines/ Both XRP and bitcoin surged in November-December following an extended range-bound period that left their bandwidth at levels comparable to those observed today.

That said, tighter bands do not always indicate a bullish volatility explosion; they can also foreshadow a sell-off. For example, the bands tightened in October 2022, signaling a significant move ahead, which materialized on the downside after FTX went bust.

It remains to be seen whether this latest spring compression will trigger bullish volatility or lead both tokens into a tailspin. The recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve’s Chairman Jerome Powell and selling by some whales favor the latter.

Stay alert!

TRUMP, the memecoin tied to U.S. President Donald Trump, gained more than 9% in the past 24 hours following a $320 million token unlock. The price now sits around $8.40, still down more than 88% from its peak above $71 on Jan. 18.

The recent unlock may spell further trouble for investors, who are estimated to have lost a total of $2 billion after purchasing the token earlier this year.

Token unlocks typically flood the market with new supply and tend to depress prices. But in this case, the market appears to have priced in the release beforehand, potentially explaining the price uptick. Still, the $320 million unlock raises the risk of a large sell-off, especially given TRUMP’s thin liquidity.

Data from CoinMarketCap shows that just $1.3 million could move the token’s price by 2% on major exchanges. The move also comes during the Easter holiday weekend, when trading volumes are subdued and price swings can be more pronounced.

On social media, rumors are swirling about a possible event for large token holders, supposedly being organized by Trump himself. These claims remain unverified and highly speculative.

Data from Dune analytics shows there are currently 636,000 TRUMP token holders on-chain, with just 12,285 wallets having more than $1,000 worth of the cryptocurrency.

Slovenia’s finance ministry has proposed a 25% tax on capital gains from cryptocurrency starting in 2026, under a draft law aimed at closing a gap in the country’s tax system.

The tax will apply to profit made when individuals sell crypto for fiat currency or spend it on goods and services. However, swapping one cryptocurrency for another will remain tax-free, and any gains made before January 1, 2026, will not be taxed, according to the finance ministry’s proposal.

The measure is meant to treat crypto gains more like other capital investments, such as stocks or bonds, which are already taxed.

Under the law, individuals would calculate their profit as the difference between the value at acquisition and at sale, adjusted for transaction fees. Losses can be carried forward to offset future gains. Taxpayers would need to file an annual return by March 31 and make payment within 15 days.

The tax could generate between €2.5 million and €25 million annually, according to preliminary government estimates. The country’s Ministry of Finance is soliciting public feedback on the proposal, which would come into effect next year.

The proposal comes as data from the European Central Bank’s ‘Survey on Consumer Payment Attitudes in the Euro Area’ shows Slovenia has the highest share of cryptocurrency owners in the euro area, with 15% of adults holding digital currencies last year, up from 8% in 2022.

Disclaimer: Information collected for this article was translated with the use of artificial intelligence.