Uncategorized
Chart of the Week: Bond Market Could be Bitcoin’s ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’ Signal

Credit spreads are widening and have reached their highest levels since August 2024 — a period that coincided with bitcoin (BTC) dropping 33% during the yen carry trade unwind.
One way to track this is through the ratio of the iShares 3–7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) to the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG). This IEI/HYG ratio, highlighted by analyst Caleb Franzen, serves as a proxy for credit spreads and is now showing its sharpest spike since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023 — a moment that marked a local bottom in bitcoin just below $20,000.
Historically, bitcoin and other risk assets tend to fall during sharp credit spread expansions.
The key question now is whether this surge has peaked or if more downside lies ahead. If spreads continue to rise, it could reflect mounting stress in financial markets — and spell further trouble for risk-on positioning.
A credit spread represents the yield difference between safe government bonds and riskier corporate bonds. When spreads widen, it signals growing risk aversion and tightening financial conditions.
However, Friday’s market action seems to indicate that bitcoin is starting to decouple from the traditional markets, outperforming equities. One analyst event called it the new «U.S. isolation hedge,» indicating that BTC might be starting to act more like a safe haven or digital gold for TradFi investors.
Read more: Crypto Outperforms Nasdaq as BTC Becomes ‘U.S. Isolation Hedge’ Amid $5T Equities Carnage
Uncategorized
VARA Fortifies Controls on Crypto Margin Trading in Dubai, Refreshes Rulebook

Dubai’s crypto regulator Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) has updated its rulebook for digital asset trading.
The emirati regulator has introduced greater leverage controls and collateralization requirements through provisions in its Broker-Deal and Exchange Rulebooks. This will help VARA’s rules to align with global risk standards, the regulator said in an emailed announcement on Monday.
VARA has also introduced sections of its rulebook to properly oversee areas of the crypto industry that were previously lightly regulated, such as broker-dealers and wallets.
The rules previously laid out by VARA have helped establish the city as a crypto hub, winning praise from crypto companies for being reasonably clear in their requirements to operate there. Major exchanges such as Binance, Crypto.com and OKX have all won approvals under VARA.
VARA is now taking these rules and upgrading them to reflect a more mature framework that it says incorporates real-world licensing experience and international best practices.
«These rulebook updates reinforce the foundations of a responsible, scalable ecosystem,” said Ruben Bombardi, General Counsel and Head of Regulatory Enablement at VARA, said in an emailed comment shared with CoinDesk.
Read More: Dubai Government Opens Door to Accepting Crypto for Service Fees
Uncategorized
Bulls and Bears Get Caught off Guard as Bitcoin Jumps to $106K, Then Falls Back to $103K

Over $600 million in crypto derivatives positions have been liquidated since late Sunday as bitcoin (BTC) staged a sharp rally past $106,000 in the wee hours, only to reverse course and dump back to near $103,000, catching both bulls and bears off guard.
The move began around 21:00 UTC on Sunday, when bitcoin spiked more than $2,500 in less than an hour — a pattern that can be attributed to thin weekend liquidity and potential algorithmic buying triggered by technical levels.
Such price action was a textbook short squeeze followed by aggressive profit-taking or stop-run. A short squeeze happens when traders betting against a price (short sellers) are forced to buy the asset as it rises, to cover their losses, which pushes the price even higher and often very quickly.
The sudden move wiped out over $460 million in long positions and $220 million in shorts, across futures tracking majors like ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and dogecoin (DOGE).
The liquidation wave was notable for occurring during traditionally quiet weekend hours, an unusual event that marks forced selling or buying activity by a major player.
SOL, DOGE and XRP prices are down more than 4% in the past 24 hours, data shows, with the broad-based CoinDesk (CD20) down more than 2%.
The volatility follows a week of macro uncertainty, with Moody’s cutting the U.S. credit rating on Friday and inflation fears resurfacing after mixed economic data. The downgrade also led to U.S. 30-year treasury yields breaching the 5% mark.
While crypto has broadly benefited from renewed institutional inflows and spot ETF momentum, traders remain cautious at current price levels, as reported.
Bitcoin is flat over the past week, but the recent failure to hold above $106,000 — a key psychological and technical level — may signal near-term resistance, FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk last week.
Meanwhile, some traders anticipate higher volatility in the days to come in a warning sign for those looking to leverage their bets.
“Investors are shifting capital to Bitcoin as concerns grow over a pending US spending bill that could add trillions in debt and push for higher Treasury premiums,” Haiyang Ru, co-CEO of the HashKey Business Group, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.
“But while bitcoin hovers just below new highs, we anticipate more market volatility as traders prepare for new trade deals and a final version of the fiscal policy,” Ru added.
Read more: U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Breaches 5% Amid Moody’s Rating Downgrade, Fiscal Concerns
Uncategorized
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Breaches 5% Amid Moody’s Rating Downgrade, Fiscal Concerns

The yield on the U.S. 30-year treasury bills crossed the 5% threshold for the first time since April, reaching an intraday high of 5.011%. This move comes in the wake of Moody’s downgrading U.S. credit, stripping the country of Aaa rating due to mounting deficits and escalating interest expenses.
The last time the long end of the yield curve reached 5% was on April 9, during the so-called «tariff tantrum,» which triggered sharp sell-offs in both crypto and U.S. equity markets.
At that time, bitcoin (BTC) was hovering near its local low of around $75,000. It has since rebounded strongly, currently trading around $103,000 after hitting a Sunday high of $106,000.
“The last time the 30-year closed at or above 5% (at the 6 PM ET mark) was October 31, 2023. The highest closing yield in recent memory was 5.11% on October 19, 2023, the highest since July 2007, nearly 18 years ago. The current yield is just 12 basis points away from surpassing that milestone,” said Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research.
In addition, the United Kingdom surpassed China in March to become the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, with holdings totaling $779.3 billion—trailing only Japan, which remains the top foreign holder.
Both China and Japan have continued to reduce their U.S. Treasury holdings over the past 12 months, underscoring the growing need for the U.S. to attract new buyers for its debt.
As the U.S. Treasury faces growing deficits, with the potential of more bonds being issued, increasing supply and thereby pushing yields higher while prices fall. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures are down around 2%, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment in the market.
-
Fashion7 месяцев ago
These \’90s fashion trends are making a comeback in 2017
-
Entertainment7 месяцев ago
The final 6 \’Game of Thrones\’ episodes might feel like a full season
-
Fashion7 месяцев ago
According to Dior Couture, this taboo fashion accessory is back
-
Entertainment7 месяцев ago
The old and New Edition cast comes together to perform
-
Business7 месяцев ago
Uber and Lyft are finally available in all of New York State
-
Sports7 месяцев ago
Phillies\’ Aaron Altherr makes mind-boggling barehanded play
-
Entertainment7 месяцев ago
Disney\’s live-action Aladdin finally finds its stars
-
Sports7 месяцев ago
Steph Curry finally got the contract he deserves from the Warriors