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Bitcoin’s Rally to Record Highs Puts Focus on $115K Where an ‘Invisible Hand’ May Slow Bull Run

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has surged to record highs, sparking optimism among investors. However, expected hedging activities of market makers/dealers, often an invisible force, at certain price levels, may slow the ascent.

The leading cryptocurrency topped the $111,000 mark during the Asian hours, with analysts anticipating stronger demand.

«The OTC supply may be drying up, driving up prices. This would not be reflected in exchange trading volumes or the derivatives market. If this is the case, get ready for a wild ride, as more demand is coming on board with a competitive bitcoin corporate treasury environment and, perhaps, a less elastic OTC spot market,» said Alexander S. Blume, founder and CEO of SEC-registered investment advisor Two Prime.

Blume explained that corporate treasuries coming on board have been buying over-the-counter «en masse,» and rumors are that sovereign demand for the cryptocurrency has picked up.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, said BTC could rally to $180,000 by the end of the year, led by spot ETF inflows, slower post-halving supply growth and growing institutional adoption.

«Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating to Aa1 is another key macro catalyst, sparking renewed interest in BTC and ETH as hedges against fiat risk. BTC’s ability to hold above $103,000 amid volatility highlights the market’s shift toward crypto as a strategic reserve asset,» Lee said.

Focus on $115K

While the path of least resistance is on the higher side, the pace of the bullish move may be challenged by potential hedging activities of options market makers/dealers at around $115K and higher price levels, according to Jeff Anderson, head of Asia at STS Digital.

Dealers are entities tasked with creating liquidity in an exchange’s order book. They are always on the opposite side of traders’ positions and make money from the bid-ask spread, while constantly striving to maintain a net-price neutral exposure.

Data from Deribit’s BTC options market, tracked by Amberdata, shows dealers hold significant «positive gamma» exposure at $115K and higher strike price levels.

When dealers’ gamma is positive, it means they are long call or put options. In this case, their delta (market exposure) increases when the underlying asset increases. Thus, their delta-hedging mandate requires selling more of the underlying asset as the price rises and vice versa.

The order-flow, therefore, acts as a contrarian force, limiting the price volatility, Anderson told CoinDesk.

The chart shows dealers' gamma profile at Deribit. (Amberdata/Deribit)

Dealer gamma is significantly positive, from $115K to $150K, thanks to investors’ interest in selling (overwriting) higher strike call options to generate additional yield on top of their spot holdings.

«There is lot of positive gamma in the market due to call overwriters. They will be more wary of this breakout, and if we can clear the pocket of gamma at $115K, this [rally] could really start to go,» Anderson said.

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FIFA Teams Up With Avalanche to Build Its Own Blockchain, Expanding Web3 Ambition

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FIFA, football’s global governing body, plans to use Avalanche’s network to power its own dedicated layer-1 blockchain.

The FIFA Blockchain is an Avalanche L1, a customizable blockchain that uses Avalanche’s technology (also previously known as a subnet). The news comes as the Avalanche network recently went through its major Avalanche9000 upgrade, aimed at attracting new developers and encouraging them to create customized L1s.

Thursday’s announcement is not FIFA’s first foray into the world of blockchain and crypto. In 2022, the football body released a non-fungible token (NFT) collection on the Algorand blockchain ahead of the Qatar World Cup. FIFA also teased this change in April, noting that it would shift its collection to an EVM-compatible blockchain while continuing to pursue Web3 initiatives.

The NFT craze, which saw large institutions and corporations jumping into the trend, has now mostly vanished after the brutal crypto winter that dampened industry sentiment for several painful years. However, a large entity such as FIFA’s continued focus on blockchain likely signals that the use case for the technology hasn’t died down, and big enterprises are still looking to dabble in the industry.

“Avalanche is designed for enterprises and organizations looking to build custom, high-performance blockchain solutions,” said John Nahas, chief business officer at Ava Labs, in a press release shared with CoinDesk . “FIFA’s decision to launch its L1 on Avalanche is a testament to our technology’s ability to support global-scale applications with speed, flexibility, and security.”

While FIFA currently only has a World Cup NFT collection and a digital collectibles marketplace, it did not share what else it is planning to release on its new blockchain.

Read more: FIFA Embraces NFTs Tied to Classic Games Highlights for World Cup 2022

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BNB Surges 5% on Binance Ecosystem Strength as Bitcoin Extends Gains

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BNB’s impressive 24-hour rally showcases the growing strength of the Binance ecosystem amid broader crypto market optimism.

The token’s upward momentum coincides with Bitcoin’s approach toward new all-time highs and increased activity across the BNB Chain, which recently recorded over 8 million daily transactions and 2 million active wallet addresses.

Technical indicators remain bullish for BNB, with strong support established at $682 and multiple tests of this level showing sustained buyer interest despite minor resistance around $684, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • Price action formed a clear uptrend with significant volume spikes at the 15:00 and 16:00 hours on May 21st (183K and 186K respectively).
  • Strong volume support established around the $663-$670 zone.
  • The asset encountered resistance near $689.35 during the 03:00 hour on May 22nd before a minor pullback.
  • Support maintained at $679.08, suggesting continued bullish momentum.
  • Notable volatility in the last hour with a significant price surge between 07:35-07:37, climbing from $680.85 to $683.78 (0.43% increase).
  • Multiple tests of $682.00 level showing buyer interest, with resistance around $683.90.
  • Volume peaked during the 07:37 period with over 7,190 units traded, confirming strength of upward movement.
  • Final minutes showed consolidation around $682.28, suggesting temporary equilibrium after volatile trading.

External References

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Crypto Trader Opens $1.1B Long Bitcoin Bet on Hyperliquid Using 40X Leverage

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A single trader has opened a massive $1.1 billion notional long position on bitcoin (BTC) using 40x leverage on the onchain decentralized exchange (DEX) Hyperliquid, a rare instance of a ten-figure position being open entirely on a blockchain-based platform.

The trade is tied to wallet address “0x507,” belonging to pseudonymous trader “James Wynn” on the platform.

Lookonchain data shows the position was opened at an entry price of $108,084, with a liquidation level just under $103,640 — meaning if BTC drops to that price, the position could be wiped out. The trade is sitting on over $40 million in unrealized profit as of early Thursday.

Wynn closed 540 BTC (~$60M) in European morning hours to lock in a $1.5 million profit. Notably, his past three exits were followed by sharp BTC pullbacks and traders may want to watch for a repeat, Lookonchain said.

Hyperliquid is built on its own high-performance layer 1 blockchain, HyperEVM, and offers features typically reserved for centralized platforms, like real-time order books, deep liquidity, and near-zero gas fees.

Its consensus mechanism, HyperBFT, reportedly handles over 200,000 transactions per second, allowing traders to execute quickly and transparently.

Unlike centralized exchanges that require KYC or restrict access, Hyperliquid allows anyone with a wallet to trade permissionlessly. The platform has rapidly gained popularity for its speed and capital efficiency, and this billion-dollar position may serve as a signal to other large players exploring onchain execution.

In many ways, it also marks a new phase of capital migration from centralized finance to decentralized finance (DeFi) — one where whales, not just retail, are willing to place big bets outside the traditional system.

Hyperliquid’s HYPE is up 15% in the past 24 hours as demand for the token increased.

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