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Bitcoin’s Price Stability at Risk From Potential ‘Basis Trade Blowup’ That Catalyzed the COVID Crash

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent stability amid Nasdaq turmoil driven by tariffs has generated excitement among market participants regarding the cryptocurrency’s potential as a haven asset. Still, the bulls might want to keep an eye on the bond market where dynamics that characterized the COVID crash of March 2020 may be emerging.

Nasdaq, Wall Street’s tech-heavy index known to be positively correlated to bitcoin, has dropped 11% since President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced reciprocal tariffs on 180 nations, escalating trade tensions and drawing retaliatory levies from China. Other U.S. indices and global markets have also taken a beating alongside sharp losses in the risk currencies like the Australian dollar and a pullback in gold.

BTC has largely remained stable, continuing to trade above $80,000, and its resilience is being viewed as a sign of its evolution into a macro hedge.

«The S&P 500 is down roughly 5% this week as investors brace for trade-driven earnings headwinds. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has shown impressive resilience. After briefly dipping below $82,000, it rebounded quickly, reinforcing its status as a macro hedge in times of macroeconomic stress. Its relative strength could continue to attract institutional inflows if broad market volatility persists,» David Hernandez, crypto investment specialist at 21Shares, told CoinDesk in an email.

The perception of stability could quickly transform into a self-fulfilling prophecy, solidifying BTC’s position as a haven asset for years to come, as MacroScope noted on X.

Treasury basis trade risks

However, sharp downside volatility in the short term cannot be ruled out, especially as the «Treasury market basis trade» faces risks due to heightened turbulence in bond prices.

The basis trade involves highly leveraged hedge funds, reportedly operating at leverage ratios of 50-to-1, exploiting minor price discrepancies between Treasury futures and securities. This trade blew up in mid-March 2020 as coronavirus threatened to derail the global economy, leading to a «dash for cash» that saw investors sell almost every asset for dollar liquidity. On March 12, 2020, BTC fell by nearly 40%.

«When market volatility spikes — as it is now — it unearths highly leveraged carry trades vulnerable to big market moves. The blowup in the US Treasury market in March 2020, which disrupted basis carry trades, is a recent example. Risk of leveraged carry trade blowups is high…,» Robin Brooks, managing director and chief economist at the International Institute of Finance, said.

The risk is real because, the size of the basis trade as of March end was $1 trillion, double the tally in March 2020. The positioning is such that a one basis point move in Treasury yields (which move opposite to prices) would lead to a $600 million shift in the value of their bets, according to ZeroHedge.

So, increased volatility in the Treasury yields could cause a COVID-like blowup, leading to a widespread selling of all assets, including bitcoin, to obtain cash.

On Friday, the MOVE index, which represents the options-based implied or expected 30-day volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, jumped 12% to 125.70, the highest since Nov. 4, according to data source TradingView.

The gravity of the situation is underscored by a recent Brookings Institution paper, which advises the Federal Reserve to consider targeted interventions in the U.S. Treasury market, specifically supporting hedge funds engaged in basis trading during times of severe market stress.

Let’s see how things unfold in the week ahead.

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VARA Fortifies Controls on Crypto Margin Trading in Dubai, Refreshes Rulebook

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Dubai’s crypto regulator Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) has updated its rulebook for digital asset trading.

The emirati regulator has introduced greater leverage controls and collateralization requirements through provisions in its Broker-Deal and Exchange Rulebooks. This will help VARA’s rules to align with global risk standards, the regulator said in an emailed announcement on Monday.

VARA has also introduced sections of its rulebook to properly oversee areas of the crypto industry that were previously lightly regulated, such as broker-dealers and wallets.

The rules previously laid out by VARA have helped establish the city as a crypto hub, winning praise from crypto companies for being reasonably clear in their requirements to operate there. Major exchanges such as Binance, Crypto.com and OKX have all won approvals under VARA.

VARA is now taking these rules and upgrading them to reflect a more mature framework that it says incorporates real-world licensing experience and international best practices.

«These rulebook updates reinforce the foundations of a responsible, scalable ecosystem,” said Ruben Bombardi, General Counsel and Head of Regulatory Enablement at VARA, said in an emailed comment shared with CoinDesk.

Read More: Dubai Government Opens Door to Accepting Crypto for Service Fees

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Bulls and Bears Get Caught off Guard as Bitcoin Jumps to $106K, Then Falls Back to $103K

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Over $600 million in crypto derivatives positions have been liquidated since late Sunday as bitcoin (BTC) staged a sharp rally past $106,000 in the wee hours, only to reverse course and dump back to near $103,000, catching both bulls and bears off guard.

The move began around 21:00 UTC on Sunday, when bitcoin spiked more than $2,500 in less than an hour — a pattern that can be attributed to thin weekend liquidity and potential algorithmic buying triggered by technical levels.

Bitcoin price action. (CoinGecko)

Such price action was a textbook short squeeze followed by aggressive profit-taking or stop-run. A short squeeze happens when traders betting against a price (short sellers) are forced to buy the asset as it rises, to cover their losses, which pushes the price even higher and often very quickly.

The sudden move wiped out over $460 million in long positions and $220 million in shorts, across futures tracking majors like ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and dogecoin (DOGE).

The liquidation wave was notable for occurring during traditionally quiet weekend hours, an unusual event that marks forced selling or buying activity by a major player.

SOL, DOGE and XRP prices are down more than 4% in the past 24 hours, data shows, with the broad-based CoinDesk (CD20) down more than 2%.

The volatility follows a week of macro uncertainty, with Moody’s cutting the U.S. credit rating on Friday and inflation fears resurfacing after mixed economic data. The downgrade also led to U.S. 30-year treasury yields breaching the 5% mark.

While crypto has broadly benefited from renewed institutional inflows and spot ETF momentum, traders remain cautious at current price levels, as reported.

Bitcoin is flat over the past week, but the recent failure to hold above $106,000 — a key psychological and technical level — may signal near-term resistance, FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk last week.

Meanwhile, some traders anticipate higher volatility in the days to come in a warning sign for those looking to leverage their bets.

“Investors are shifting capital to Bitcoin as concerns grow over a pending US spending bill that could add trillions in debt and push for higher Treasury premiums,” Haiyang Ru, co-CEO of the HashKey Business Group, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.

“But while bitcoin hovers just below new highs, we anticipate more market volatility as traders prepare for new trade deals and a final version of the fiscal policy,” Ru added.

Read more: U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Breaches 5% Amid Moody’s Rating Downgrade, Fiscal Concerns

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U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Breaches 5% Amid Moody’s Rating Downgrade, Fiscal Concerns

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The yield on the U.S. 30-year treasury bills crossed the 5% threshold for the first time since April, reaching an intraday high of 5.011%. This move comes in the wake of Moody’s downgrading U.S. credit, stripping the country of Aaa rating due to mounting deficits and escalating interest expenses.

The last time the long end of the yield curve reached 5% was on April 9, during the so-called «tariff tantrum,» which triggered sharp sell-offs in both crypto and U.S. equity markets.

At that time, bitcoin (BTC) was hovering near its local low of around $75,000. It has since rebounded strongly, currently trading around $103,000 after hitting a Sunday high of $106,000.

“The last time the 30-year closed at or above 5% (at the 6 PM ET mark) was October 31, 2023. The highest closing yield in recent memory was 5.11% on October 19, 2023, the highest since July 2007, nearly 18 years ago. The current yield is just 12 basis points away from surpassing that milestone,” said Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research.

In addition, the United Kingdom surpassed China in March to become the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, with holdings totaling $779.3 billion—trailing only Japan, which remains the top foreign holder.

Both China and Japan have continued to reduce their U.S. Treasury holdings over the past 12 months, underscoring the growing need for the U.S. to attract new buyers for its debt.

As the U.S. Treasury faces growing deficits, with the potential of more bonds being issued, increasing supply and thereby pushing yields higher while prices fall. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures are down around 2%, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment in the market.

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