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Bitcoin’s Price Stability at Risk From Potential ‘Basis Trade Blowup’ That Catalyzed the COVID Crash

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent stability amid Nasdaq turmoil driven by tariffs has generated excitement among market participants regarding the cryptocurrency’s potential as a haven asset. Still, the bulls might want to keep an eye on the bond market where dynamics that characterized the COVID crash of March 2020 may be emerging.

Nasdaq, Wall Street’s tech-heavy index known to be positively correlated to bitcoin, has dropped 11% since President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced reciprocal tariffs on 180 nations, escalating trade tensions and drawing retaliatory levies from China. Other U.S. indices and global markets have also taken a beating alongside sharp losses in the risk currencies like the Australian dollar and a pullback in gold.

BTC has largely remained stable, continuing to trade above $80,000, and its resilience is being viewed as a sign of its evolution into a macro hedge.

«The S&P 500 is down roughly 5% this week as investors brace for trade-driven earnings headwinds. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has shown impressive resilience. After briefly dipping below $82,000, it rebounded quickly, reinforcing its status as a macro hedge in times of macroeconomic stress. Its relative strength could continue to attract institutional inflows if broad market volatility persists,» David Hernandez, crypto investment specialist at 21Shares, told CoinDesk in an email.

The perception of stability could quickly transform into a self-fulfilling prophecy, solidifying BTC’s position as a haven asset for years to come, as MacroScope noted on X.

Treasury basis trade risks

However, sharp downside volatility in the short term cannot be ruled out, especially as the «Treasury market basis trade» faces risks due to heightened turbulence in bond prices.

The basis trade involves highly leveraged hedge funds, reportedly operating at leverage ratios of 50-to-1, exploiting minor price discrepancies between Treasury futures and securities. This trade blew up in mid-March 2020 as coronavirus threatened to derail the global economy, leading to a «dash for cash» that saw investors sell almost every asset for dollar liquidity. On March 12, 2020, BTC fell by nearly 40%.

«When market volatility spikes — as it is now — it unearths highly leveraged carry trades vulnerable to big market moves. The blowup in the US Treasury market in March 2020, which disrupted basis carry trades, is a recent example. Risk of leveraged carry trade blowups is high…,» Robin Brooks, managing director and chief economist at the International Institute of Finance, said.

The risk is real because, the size of the basis trade as of March end was $1 trillion, double the tally in March 2020. The positioning is such that a one basis point move in Treasury yields (which move opposite to prices) would lead to a $600 million shift in the value of their bets, according to ZeroHedge.

So, increased volatility in the Treasury yields could cause a COVID-like blowup, leading to a widespread selling of all assets, including bitcoin, to obtain cash.

On Friday, the MOVE index, which represents the options-based implied or expected 30-day volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, jumped 12% to 125.70, the highest since Nov. 4, according to data source TradingView.

The gravity of the situation is underscored by a recent Brookings Institution paper, which advises the Federal Reserve to consider targeted interventions in the U.S. Treasury market, specifically supporting hedge funds engaged in basis trading during times of severe market stress.

Let’s see how things unfold in the week ahead.

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Tether May Develop U.S.-Only Stablecoin Under New Regulations: FT

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Tether, issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin USDT, may offer a new token specifically for the U.S., according to a Financial Times report on Monday.

Paolo Ardoino said the company had been involved in discussions about the U.S. rules on stablecoins and that it may create a token just for the U.S, depending on how these discussions unfold, the FT reported, citing an interview with the Tether CEO.

Ardoino said that if new rules are brought in»make [U.S.] stablecoins competitive, there could be an interest from Tether to create a domestic stablecoin,» which would be «basically a settlement currency.»

He added that the Trump administration views stableoins as «an important instrument in the United States.»

Stablecoins are digital tokens pegged to the value of a traditional financial asset, most commonly the U.S dollar.

Regulations being considered by President Donald Trump’s administration include plans to force foreign issuers trading crypto to comply with U.S. laws.

Tether did not immediately respond to CoinDesk’s request for further comment.

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Tariff Fallout Slaps Ether Bulls With Looming $100M Liquidation

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Analysis of on-chain data curated by DefiLlama shows that nearly $100 million in ether (ETH) positions are at risk if the price slides by 15%.

Traders in Asia faced a sea of red during the Monday business day as the ripple effects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy were felt around the world.

ETH is down nearly 16% Monday, according to CoinDesk data, now trading above $1490, while the CoinDesk 20 index is down 13%, and market participants fear that the U.S. open could bring more pain.

Should the U.S. open bring another 15% drop in ETH’s price, sending it below $1,274, more than $100 million in leveraged positions could face imminent liquidation.

On-chain liquidations are potentially more impactful than those related to derivatives as it involves spot assets being sold onto the market. In MakerDAO’s case, a liquidated position is auctioned off at a cheaper rate to traders who can then sell at a relative premium, flooding the market with supply and creating more sell pressure.

One wallet which would get liquidated at $1418 had a number of close calls Monday but trimmed its holdings of ETH and paid back repaid some of the DAI it owed.

DeFiLlama data also shows that should the price of ETH sink by 20%, another $36 million is at risk.

The largest single ETH position, with $147 million in collateral locked, has a strike price of $1,132.

Lending protocols were some of the hardest hit tokens during the Monday Asia trading day, with CoinGecko data showing that the category is down 17% on-day as concern grows about the health of levarage around some positions.

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Markets in Freefall: Is the Credit Market Forcing the Fed’s Hand?

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Financial markets are in a meltdown and every leg lower is strengthening expectations in the credit market that the Fed will soon offer support.

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market value, traded 8% lower at $75,800 and the U.S. stocks were on track for their worst three-day performance, with S&P 500 futures down roughly 5% on Monday alone and losses approaching 15% overall.

The Fed has a history of intervening during financial meltdowns with rate cuts and other stimulus measures. So, traders, having become accustomed to liquidity support, are betting that the Fed will act similarly this time.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the federal funds futures market is now pricing in as many as five rate cuts in 2025. For the upcoming May 7 meeting, there’s a 61% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which would lower the target range to 4.25–4.50%. By year-end, the market sees the fed funds rate falling as low as 3.00–3.25%.

The risk-off, coupled with the growth scare and Fed rate cut bets, is giving Trump administration what it wants – plunging Treasury yields. The all-important 10-year yield — the benchmark for the U.S. economy — has dropped to 3.923%.

The popular narrative is that lower yields would make it easier for the Treasury to refinance trillions of dollars in debt in the coming 12 months, which is why the Trump administration may be more tolerant of the asset market swoon.

This refinancing urgency stems from a policy shift under former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who moved from longer-dated coupon issuance to short-term Treasury bills. Since 2023, about two-thirds of the deficit had been financed through bill issuance — short-term debt with rates hovering around 5%. While this may have temporarily supported liquidity, it created a ticking time bomb of expensive short-term debt that now needs to be rolled over.

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