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Bitcoin’s Long-Term Bullishness Evaporates From Options Market as Inflation Concern Rises

The bitcoin (BTC) bull, once confidently gazing into the future, is reconsidering its long-term bullish conviction.
That’s evident from the 180-day skew, measuring the difference in implied volatility (pricing) between Deribit-listed out-of-the-money call and put options. The metric has recently retreated to zero, according to data source Amberdata, indicating that long-term market sentiment has shifted from bullish to neutral. The shift comes as some analysts warn of a bear market in 2026.
A similar reset occurred at the onset of the previous bitcoin bear market, according to Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at crypto financial platform BloFin.
«I’ve noticed a rather worrying sign with the recent market pullback. Bitcoin’s bullish sentiment for the far-month options has vanished, and it is now firmly neutral,» Ardern told CoinDesk. «This means the options market believes it’s difficult for BTC to establish a long-term uptrend, and the likelihood of new highs in the coming months is decreasing.»
«A similar situation last occurred in Jan and Feb 2022,» he added.
A put option offers insurance against price drops in the underlying asset, while a call provides an asymmetric bullish exposure. A positive skew implies a bias towards calls, indicating bullishness in the market, whereas a negative skew suggests the opposite.
The neutral shift in the 180-day skew could be partly driven by structured products selling higher strike call options to generate additional yield on top of the spot market holdings.
The popularity of the so-called covered call strategy could be driving the call implied volatility lower relative to puts.
Macro jitters
BTC fell over 4% last week, nearly testing its former record high of $11,965, as the core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose in June, while nonfarm payrolls disappointed, stoking concerns about the economy.
The price drop has pushed short-term skews below zero, a sign of traders seeking downside protection through puts.
According to Ardern, the inflationary effects of «supply chain impulses» are already showing up in economic data.
«Although falling auto prices in the last CPI report offset rising prices for other goods, one thing is undeniable: the impulse from the West Coast of the Pacific has reached the East Coast, and retailers are already trying to pass on tariffs and a host of associated costs to consumers. While wholesalers and commodity trading firms are working to smooth supply chains, price increases will still occur, albeit more moderately or «delayed by several months,» Ardern noted, explaining the renewed neutrality of the long-term BTC options.
According to JPMorgan, President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to elevate inflation in the second half of the year.
«Global core inflation is projected to increase to 3.4% (annualized rate) in the second half of 2025, largely due to a tariff-related U.S. spike,» analysts at the investment bank noted, adding that cost pressures will likely be concentrated in the U.S.
An uptick in inflation could make it harder for the Fed to cut rates. Trump has repeatedly criticized the central bank for keeping rates elevated at 4.25%.
Traders will receive the ISM non-manufacturing PMI later Tuesday, providing insights into inflation in the service sector, which accounts for a significant portion of the U.S. economy. It will be followed by July CPI and PPI releases later this week.
Read more: Bitcoin Still on Track for $140K This Year, But 2026 Will Be Painful: Elliott Wave Expert
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CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: Index Drops 2.5% as Nearly All Constituents Decline

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.
The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 4248.74, down 2.5% (-109.09) since 4 p.m. ET on Monday.
One of 20 assets is trading higher.
Leaders: AVAX (+0.6%) and BCH (-0.8%).
Laggards: UNI (-9.9%) and LINK (-7.0%).
The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.
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Pantera-Backed Solana Treasury Firm Helius Raises $500M, Stock Soars Over 200%

Helius Medical Technologies (HSDT) announced on Monday it’s raising more than $500 million in a private financing round to create a Solana-focused treasury company.
The vehicle will hold SOL, the native token of the Solana blockchain, as its reserve asset and aims to expand to more than $1.25 billion via stock warrants tied to the deal, the press release said.
The financing was led by Pantera Capital and Summer Capital, with participation from investors including Animoca Brands, FalconX and HashKey Capital.
Shares of the firm rallied over 200% above $24 in pre-market trading following the announcement. Solana was down 4% over the past 24 hours.
The firm is joining the latest wave of new digital asset treasuries, or DATs, with public companies pivoting to raise funds and buy cryptocurrencies like bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH) or SOL.
Helius is set to rival with the recently launched Forward Industries (FORD) with a $1.65 billion war chest backed by Galaxy Digital and others. That firm confirmed on Monday that has already purchased 6.8 million tokens for roughly $1.58 billion last week.
Helius’ plan is to use Solana’s yield-bearing design to generate income on the holdings, earning staking rewards of around 7% as well as deploying tokens in decentralized finance (DeFi) and lending opportunities. Incoming executive chairman Joseph Chee, founder of Summer Capital and a former UBS banker, will lead the firm’s digital asset strategy alongside Pantera’s Cosmo Jiang and Dan Morehead.
«As a pioneer in the digital asset treasury space, having participated in the formation of the strategy at Twenty One Capital (CEP) with Tether, Softbank and Cantor, Bitmine (BMNR) with Tom Lee and Mozayyx as well as EightCo (OCTO) with Dan Ives and Sam Altman, we have built the expertise to set up the pre-eminent Solana treasury vehicle,» Cosmo Jiang, general partner at Pantera Capital, said in a statement.
«There is a real opportunity to drive the flywheel of creating shareholder value that Michael Saylor has pioneered with Strategy by accelerating Solana adoption,» he added.
Read more: Solana Surges as Galaxy Scoops Up Over $700M Tokens From Exchanges
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American Express Introduces Blockchain-Based ‘Travel Stamps’

American Express has introduced Ethereum-based ‘travel stamps’ to create a commemorative record of travel experiences, as part of the firm’s revamped travel app.
The travel experience tokens, which are technically NFTs (ERC 721 tokens), are minted and stored on Coinbase’s Base network, said Colin Marlowe , VP, Emerging Partnerships at Amex Digital Labs.
The travel stamps, which can be collected anytime a traveler uses their card, are not tradable NTF tokens, Marlowe explained, and neither do they function like blockchain-based loyalty points – at least for the time being.
“It’s a valueless ERC-721, so technically an NFT, but we just didn’t brand it as such. We wanted to speak to it in a way that was natural for the travel experience itself, and so we talk about these things as stamps, and they’re represented as tokens,” Marlowe said in an interview.
“As an identifier and representation of history the stamps could create interesting partnership angles over time. We weren’t trying to sell these or sort of generate any like short term revenue. The angle is to make a travel experience with Amex feel really rich, really different, and kind of set it apart,” he said.
The Amex travel app also includes a range of tools for travels and Centurion Lounge upgrades, the company said.
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