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Bitcoin’s $100K Breakout Pause Likely Due to Liquidity Factors and Nvidia’s Stalled Rally

For the third week, bitcoin (BTC) remains locked in a price range between $90,000 and $100,000, punctuated only by Dec. 5’s short-lived rise into six figures.
This indecisive price action might have left traders feeling uninspired, with two key reasons holding back the upside.
First, the influx of liquidity into the crypto market through channels like spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has significantly slowed, taking the wind out of the bullish momentum.
The weekly rate of change in the so-called market liquidity impulse index, which tracks stablecoin mints, inflows into BTC ETFs and changes in futures market parameters, has more than halved to $7 billion from highs above $15 billion seen early last month, according to data tracked by 10x Research.
«This slowdown in liquidity growth may partially explain why bitcoin is struggling to sustain levels above $100,000,» Markus Thielen, founder of <a href=»https://10xresearch.co/» target=»_blank»>10x Research</a>, said in a note to clients Wednesday.
The liquidity indicator has chalked out lower highs of late, diverging bearishly from BTC’s price.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to an external reference like the U.S. dollar and are widely used to fund crypto purchases. Meanwhile, ETFs are preferred investment vehicles for those looking to take exposure to the cryptocurrency without owning it. The same can be said about CME’s cash-settled futures.
The other reason, overlooked by most pundits, is the slowdown in the uptrend in shares in chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), the world’s biggest company. Since the debut of ChatGPT in late 2022, NVDA has emerged as a bellwether for all things AI and risk assets in general.
BTC and NVDA bottomed out in late 2022 and boasted a <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/03/15/bitcoins-correlation-to-nvidia-strongest-in-over-a-year#:~:text=The%2090%2Dday%20and%2052%2Dweek%20correlation%20coefficient%20between%20bitcoin,bubble%20that%20could%20soon%20burst.» target=»_blank»>strong positive correlation</a> since then, barring the summer, when supply overhang fears kept BTC from tracking NVDA higher. As of writing, the <a href=»https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/pair-correlation/NVDA/BTC.CC/NVIDIA-vs-Bitcoin#:~:text=The%203%20months%20correlation%20between,assuming%20nothing%20else%20is%20changed.» target=»_blank»>three-month correlation</a> between the two was 0.6.
Analysts at TheMarketEar believe BTC, with its post-U.S. election surge from $70,000 to $100,000, has caught up with NVDA
«Same psychology; winners like winners. BTC has ‘caught up’ to NVDA. They have little fundamentals in common but are driven by similar psychology,» analysts at TheMarketEar said in a note to clients, adding that NVDA is one of the few stocks that has outperformed BTC this year and over the last five years.
While BTC has risen 130% this year, NVDA has gained 172%, according to data source TradingView.
NVDA’s uptrend, however, has run out of steam since mid-November, with prices now teasing a bearish reversal pattern for heads and shoulders. Besides, the one-year put-call skew now shows calls trading at par with puts, exhibiting a neutral sentiment as opposed to a strong call (bullish) bias early this year, according to data source <a href=»https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/NVDA/VolatilitySkew/» target=»_blank»>Market Chameleon</a>.
That said, bullish excesses have been crowded out from the crypto market, as noted in Tuesday’s edition of the <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2024/12/10/crypto-daybook-americas-banks-favor-king-dollar-as-btc-tug-of-war-rages» target=»_blank»>Crypto Daybook Americas</a>. With the market normalized to more healthy leverage levels, we could see BTC having another go at the $100,000 mark, but sustainability of the breakout likely depends on liquidity inflows and broader risk sentiment.
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U.S. Sanctions Funnull for Role in Pig Butchering Scam, Huione-Linked Crypto Wallets

The U.S. Department of the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on Funnull Technology, a provider of technology for websites allegedly involved in so-called pig butchering scams, and two cryptocurrency wallets said to be linked to Huione Group.
Philippines-based Funnull also directly facilitated a scam involving virtual currencies resulting in over $200 million in victim losses, OFAC said in a Thursday press release. In addition, the company is alleged to have acquired several IP addresses from mainstream cloud service providers to sell to cybercriminals. The sanctions also cover a Funnull administrator, Liu Lizhi.
The majority of cryptocurrency investment scam websites reported to the FBI are linked to Funnull,» Blockchain security firm Elliptic said in a blog post, which also identified the sanctioned wallets as being linked to Huione.
The wallets on Ethereum and Tron received funds directly from Huione Pay, part of Huione Group, Elliptic said. Huione was labeled as a «primary money laundering concern» by FinCEN earlier this month.
The two addresses received more than $4 million in total, according to Elliptic.
Uncategorized
HashKey Group Lists XRP for Institutional Investors in Asia

Hong Kong-based trading platform HashKey Group has announced the listing of XRP XRP for professional investors.
The company said in a tweet that spot XRP/USD markets are now live, although the trading pair notched just $4,000 in volume in the first hour after listing.
HashKey Group is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and targets institutional investors in Asia.
The listing comes after XPR was selected as one of five assets to be included in included in the U.S. strategic crypto reserve.
HashKey Group cited XRP’s resurgence in late 2024 as a catalyst for this cycle’s first altcoin season, and in April it rolled out Asia’s first XRP tracker fund in partnership with Ripple.
“HashKey Capital has been a valued partner in expanding institutional access to XRP across Asia, » Fiona Murray, Ripple’s managing director of APAC said in a press release. «
From launching the region’s first XRP Tracker Fund to facilitating XRP’s listing on HashKey Exchange, our collaboration reflects a shared commitment to real-world utility. We look forward to advancing that momentum through responsible innovation.”
XRP is currently trading at $2.19, down 4.4% over the past 24 hours following a wider crypto market sell-off that has seen bitcoin slump to $105,000.
Uncategorized
XRP Falls Below 200-day Average, Bitcoin Dips to $105K as Traders Eye Core PCE

The crypto market mood was sombre Friday, with XRP XRP losing key support alongside losses in market leader bitcoin and other major tokens, as traders awaited the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE.
Payments-focused XRP dipped below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since April 10, indicating a strengthening of downward momentum. Prices fell below $2.20, registering 4.6% losses on a 24-hour basis, according to data source TradingView.
The decline followed reports of increasing demand for XRP as a corporate Treasury asset.
Prices for BTC, the premier digital asset by market value, briefly fell below $105,000 during European hours, extending overnight losses to trade nearly 3% lower on a 24-hour basis.
BTC’s losses followed a $358 million net outflow from the 11 spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) Thursday, their first since May 13 and highest single-day tally since March 11, according to data source SoSoValue. Renewed trade war fears also weighed over the sentiment.
Other majors, such as ETH, SOL, and DOGE, posted larger losses, with smaller tokens like OP, ARB, BONK, and PEPE falling by over 10% each, according to data source Coingecko.
Focus on U.S. core PCE
Consumer prices, represented by the personal consumption expenditure index, rose 0.15% on a monthly basis in April, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 2.2% from 2.3% in March, according to economists surveyed by FactSet.
The core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to have risen 0.12% on a monthly basis and 2.5% on an annual basis.
Another good month for inflation could raise Fed rate cut bets, boding well for BTC and other assets.
«All eyes now turn to the Core PCE data due today, which could reignite bullish sentiment if inflation shows signs of easing,» Valentin Fournier, Lead Research Analyst at BRN, said in an email.
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