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Bitcoin Will Rally as U.S. Growth Improves, Crypto Bills Progress: Coinbase Research

A more upbeat macroeconomic backdrop, growing corporate appetite for digital assets, and increased regulatory clarity will fuel a constructive outlook for crypto markets in the second half of 2025, according to a report by Coinbase Research.
After a bumpy first quarter marked by a brief contraction in U.S. GDP and trade disruptions, data now point to stronger growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker has jumped to 3.8% QoQ as of early June, a sharp upgrade from earlier in the year. This shift, alongside expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a less aggressive trade policy, has eased recession fears and strengthened investor sentiment.
Declining dollar dominance and inflation protection use-cases may also boost bitcoin’s BTC appeal, even if long-dated U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, the report said. Altcoins may lag unless they benefit from specific catalysts, such as ETF approvals or protocol developments.
Meanwhile, public companies are increasingly adding crypto to their balance sheets, aided by a 2024 rule change allowing «mark-to-market» accounting for digital assets. While this trend is expanding demand, it’s also introducing new systemic risks. Firms that fund crypto buys with convertible debt may be forced to sell if refinancing options dry up or prices fall sharply.
Regulatory clarity
Regulatory developments are also expected to reshape the market, the report said.
The Senate recently passed the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan stablecoin bill now heading to the House. A broader market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, aims to define the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in overseeing digital assets. If passed, it could clarify rules for both issuers and investors.
Separately, the SEC is considering more than 80 crypto ETF applications, including multi-asset funds and proposals involving staking and altcoins. Some rulings could be made as early as July, and the rest are likely to be finalized by October.
Overall, bitcoin appears poised to benefit from both macro and structural tailwinds in the second half of the year, while the outlook for altcoins will depend on navigating a more complex and still-evolving regulatory and liquidity environment, according to the report.
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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.
June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.
COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.
The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.
Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.
The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.
Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.
Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.
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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.
Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.
The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.
The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.
Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.
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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.
One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.
Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.
On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.
XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.
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