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Bitcoin Under Pressure as Goldman Trims Fed Rate Cut Expectations, BofA Sees Potential Hike After Blowout Jobs Report

Bitcoin (BTC) started the new week on a negative note as major investment banks reassessed their expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts following Friday’s strong jobs report.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value dipped below $93,000 during the European hours, representing a 1.6% drop on the day, according to data source CoinDesk. Prices looked set to test the support zone near $92,000, which has consistently acted as a floor since late November.
The CoinDesk 20 Index, a broader market gauge, was down over 3%, with major coins like XRP, ADA, and DOGE posting bigger losses.
In traditional markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 0.3% lower, pointing to an extension of Friday’s 1.5% drop that pushed the index to the lowest since early November. The dollar index (DXY) neared 110 for the first time since late 2022, with elevated Treasury yields supporting further gains.
Data released Friday showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000 in December, the most since March, surpassing expectations for 160,000 job additions and the previous figure of 212,000 by a big margin. The jobless rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%, and the average hourly earnings came in slightly lower than expected at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year.
That prompted Goldman Sachs to push out the next interest rate cut to June from March.
«Our economists now expect the Fed to cut just twice in 2025 (Jun/Dec vs Mar/Jun/Dec previously), with another rate cut in June 2026, Goldman’s Economic Research note to clients on Jan. 10 said.
«If December’s FOMC decision marked a significant shift back towards inflation in the Fed’s relative weighting of risks, the December jobs report may have completed the pendulum swing. The soft average hourly earnings figure kept the print from sending a more alarming re-heating signal, but the case for cutting to mitigate risks to the labor market has faded into the background,» the note explained.
The Fed’s rate-cutting cycle began in September when the official reduced the benchmark borrowing cost by 50 basis points. The bank delivered quarter-point rate cuts in the following months before pausing in December to signal fewer rate cuts in 2025. BTC has surged over 50% since the first rate cut on Sept. 18, hitting record highs above $108,000 at one point.
While Goldman and JPMorgan still expect rate cuts, Bank of America (BofA) fears an extended pause, with risks skewed in favor of a rate hike or renewed tightening. Note that the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield, which is sensitive to interest rate, growth and inflation expectations, has already surged by 100 basis points since the Sept. 18 rate cut.
«We think the cutting cycle is over … Our base case has the Fed on an extended hold. But we think the risks for the next move are skewed toward a hike,» BofA analysts said in a note, according to Reuters.
ING said, «The market is right to see the risk of an extended pause from the Fed» in the light of the recent economic reports.
«That view will only increase if core inflation comes in at 0.3% month-on-month for a fifth consecutive month next week,» ING said in a note to clients over the weekend.
The December consumer price index report is scheduled for release on Jan. 15. Some observers are worried that base effects could accelerate the headline CPI and the core CPI, adding to the hawkish Fed narrative.
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Why Trump’s Tariffs Could Actually Be Good for Bitcoin

So far, crypto markets haven’t behaved as expected under the Trump Administration. Investors hoped that regulatory reform and policies like a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would drive prices appreciably higher. But it’s been the opposite. Bitcoin has fallen from highs well above $100,000 at the beginning of the year to a trough in the mid-80,000s for most of March.
Crypto prices have suffered from being increasingly correlated with traditional assets like stocks and bonds, which have been hit by macroeconomic uncertainty. Tariffs — surcharges the U.S. places on imports from other countries — have Wall Street worried about a global recession. Crypto investors have been steering clear of crypto assets, which are seen as relatively risky.
“This is all about markets’ ‘risk appetite’ which continues to deteriorate, and for the time being drives a wedge between crypto assets and gold, which continues to be the ‘safe haven’ of choice,” said Marc Ostwald, Chief Economist & Global Strategist at ADM Investor Services International.
“[That’s] in no small part driven by central bank FX reserve managers, who are seeking to reduce USD exposure, which has long been a source of concern to them.”
As the global financial and trade system becomes more fragmented, investors are seeking alternatives to riskier assets, including dollars. For now, that means turning to gold, which is up 18% year-to-date.
But that could change, said Omid Malekan, an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and author of «The Story of the Blockchain: A Beginner’s Guide to the Technology That Nobody Understands.» Bitcoin could be the new gold soon enough.
“I think the entire [future] is uncertain and in some ways unknowable, because there are many crosscurrents and both crypto and tariffs are new. Some people argue that crypto is just a risk-on tech asset and would sell off due to tariffs. But bitcoin has found footing in some circles as ‘digital gold’ and the physical variety is soaring on the tariff news. So which will it be?”
In other words, economic uncertainty could lead investors to seek out bitcoin just as they have sought out gold in recent months.
Another note of positivity: the impact of tariffs on crypto could be “priced in” and the worst might be over already, said Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, a leading crypto asset management firm.
President Trump is due to announce U.S. tariffs on Wednesday, April 2, at 4 p.m. ET—what’s known as “Liberation Day.” According to reports, he’ll lay out “reciprocal tariffs” against 15 countries that have levied tariffs against the U.S., including China, Canada and Mexico.
Pandl estimates tariffs have so far taken 2% off economic growth this year. But Liberation Day might actually stop the worst of the pain felt in financial markets. “If we see an announcement [on Wednesday] that is tough but phased, and focused on the 15 countries they seem to be targeting, my expectation is that markets will rally on that news,” Pandl told CoinDesk.
“Potentially once we get through this announcement, crypto markets can focus back on the fundamentals which are very positive.”Pandl said announcements like Circle’s IPO wouldn’t be happening if institutions didn’t have a high degree of confidence in the digital assets sector and the policies around it.
Moreover, Pandl, a former macro-economist at Goldman Sachs, believes that tariffs will increase the appetite for currencies that aren’t dollars.
“I think tariffs will weaken the dominant role of the dollar and create space for competitors including bitcoin. Prices have gone down in the short run. But the first few months of the Trump Administration have raised my conviction in the longer term for bitcoin as a global monetary asset.”
Pendl still believes that bitcoin will hit new all-time highs this year, despite current pessimism around prices. “I wouldn’t have quit my Wall Street job if I didn’t think bitcoin will be the winner in the long term,” he said.
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Stablecoin Giant Circle Files for IPO

Circle, the U.S.-based stablecoin issuer, is going public.
The firm filed an S-1 form with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday. If approved, the company’s stock will be trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol «CRCL.»
The company said its reserve income from managing its stablecoin-related reserves was $1.7 billion at the end of 2024, representing 99.1% of its total revenue.
Circle is behind USDC, the second largest stablecoin by market capitalization, with $60 billion in supply. The firm’s IPO has been one of the most anticipated in crypto.
It’s not the only crypto-adjacent company looking to go public. Artificial Intelligence (AI) firm CoreWeave (CRWV), which benefits from a strong business relationship with bitcoin mining firm Core Scientific (CORZ), started trading on the public market on March 28.
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GameStop Has $1.5B of Bitcoin Buying Power After Closing Convertible Note Sale

Bitcoin (BTC) purchases from video game retailer GameStop (GME) could be imminent or may have already begun after the company closed on its offering of $1.3 billion of five-year convertible notes.
The $200 million greenshoe option was fully exercised by the initial purchaser, bringing the total amount of the sale to $1.5 billion. Net proceeds to the company after fees were $1.48 billion, according to a filing Monday after the close of U.S. trading.
Alongside its fourth quarter earnings report last week, GameStop — led by its CEO Ryan Cohen — announced full board approval of an update to the company investment policy to add bitcoin to the GME balance sheet.
GME shares rose 1.35% during the regular session on Monday and are up another 0.8% in after hours action. Bitcoin remains modestly higher over the past 24 hours at $84,900.
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