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Bitcoin Treads Water, Gold Extends Gain as U.S. Jobs Report Looms: Crypto Daybook Americas

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2 недели ago

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) rose just 0.6% in the last 24 hours, while the wider market as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index added 0.4%. The gain is overshadowed by gold’s increase and a major government bond sell-off.

The precious metal broke through $3,500 per ounce for the first time on Wednesday, helping the tokenized gold market to top $2.5 billion in value as growing bets see the Federal Reserve cutting rates this month. Gold’s advance comes as investors are wary of swelling government debt, prompting a sell-off in long-dated government bonds.

The yield on Japan’s 30-year government bond rose to a record 3.28% following similar moves in the U.S. and U.K. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield neared 5%, while British gilts reached levels not seen since 1998, at 5.7%.

The turmoil hasn’t added fuel to the crypto market, whose price action remains muted. Deribit’s bitcoin volatility index (DVOL) is now at 38.1, its lowest level since late 2023, while capital is seemingly rotating into ether (ETH).

While spot bitcoin ETFs saw $751 million in net outflows last month, spot ether ETFs brought in a net $3.87 billion. That rotation is also being seen on-chain.

Meanwhile, a joint statement from the SEC and CFTC clarified rules for compliant spot crypto trading in the agencies’ latest effort to clear a way forward for crypto in the U.S.

The statement failed to jolt the crypto market, seemingly as investors await Friday’s U.S. jobs report. A soft reading could nudge the Federal Reserve closer to lowering rates, which would boost the market and other risk assets.

A hotter-than-expected figure, however, could damp sentiment. September has historically been a negative month for the sector, with bitcoin recording a drop of 3.29% on average for the month according to CoinGlass data. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Sept. 3: First day of regular-hours trading on Nasdaq for American Bitcoin (ABTC). The company, backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., was formed through a reverse merger with Gryphon Digital Mining and listed after market close on Sept. 2.
    • Sept. 3, 10:15 a.m.: Tellor (TRB), a decentralized oracle network that operates as an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, will upgrade its mainnet to version 5.1.1. The upgrade improves network performance and node operation.
    • Sept. 4: Polygon will switch its mainnet token to POL from MATIC. Holders of MATIC on Ethereum, Polygon zkEVM or centralized exchanges may need to take action.
    • Sept. 10, 9:15 a.m.: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan V. Gould will talk about digital assets at the CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation Conference in Washington.
  • Macro
    • Sept. 3, 8 a.m.: Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July industrial production data.
      • Industrial Production MoM Est. -0.3% vs. Prev. 0.1%
      • Industrial Production YoY Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -1.3%
    • Sept. 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases August Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 46.6
      • Services PMI Prev. 46.3
    • Sept. 3, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July labor market data (the JOLTS report).
      • Job Openings Est. 7.4M vs. Prev. 7.437M
      • Job Quits Prev. 3.142M
    • Sept. 4, 8:15 a.m.: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) releases August U.S. private-sector employment data.
      • Employment Change Est. 68K vs. Prev. 104K
    • Sept. 4, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases August Canada data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 48.7
      • Services PMI Prev. 49.3
    • Sept. 4, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) August U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Est. 55.4 vs. Prev. 55.1
      • Services PMI Est. 55.4 vs. Prev. 55.7
    • Sept. 4, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases August U.S. services sector data.
      • Services PMI Est. Est. 51 vs. Prev. 50.1
    • Sept. 4, 1 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Institute of Statistics releases August inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.53%
    • Sept. 4, 3 p.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases August producer price inflation data.
      • PPI YoY Prev. 2.2%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Sept. 9: GameStop (GME), post-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting on upgrading Arbitrum One and Nova to ArbOS 50 Dia, adding support for Ethereum’s Fusaka fork, new EIPs, bug fixes and a native mint/burn feature (for Orbit chains only). Voting ends Sept. 4.
    • Uniswap DAO is voting on deploying Uniswap v3 on Ronin with $1M in RON and $500K in UNI incentives to make it the chain’s primary decentralized exchange. Voting ends Sept. 6.
    • Lido DAO is voting on a proposal to migrate Nethermind’s ~7,000 Ethereum validators to infrastructure operated by Twinstake, a staking provider co-founded by Nethermind. Voting ends Sept. 8.
    • Sept. 2, 6 a.m.: Bybit and Centrifuge to host an ask me anything (AMA) session on X spaces.
    • Sept. 3: Stellar (XLM) to host vote on Protocol 23 mainnet upgrade.
    • Sept. 3, 10 am: Lido to host a Poolside Community Call.
    • Sept. 3, 10 a.m.: Zebec Network ZBCN$0.004202 to host spaces event on blockchain integrations.
    • Sept. 3, 12:30 p.m.: Aptos (APT) to host hangout on ecosystem updates.
    • Sept. 4, 10 a.m.: Olympus(OHM) to host community call.
  • Unlocks
    • Sept. 5: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $13.26 million.
    • Sept. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $48.18 million.
    • Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $16.39 million.
    • Sept. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $16 million.
    • Sept. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $47.15 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Sept. 3: Moonchain (MCH) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC, Gate.io and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • Bitcoin (BTC) dominance, a key metric when assessing whether the crypto market is in «altcoin season» has ticked down another notch to around 58%, having been above 61% just 30 days ago.
  • The drop-off demonstrates a change in trader behavior: Typically altcoins perform poorly when BTC enters a downtrend, this time, however, many have held their value while some have outperformed the market’s largest asset.
  • Bitcoin is down by 2.91% in the past 30 days while the likes of ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) are up by 21% and 27.5%, respectively.
  • While the gains have been driven by the adoption of several altcoins in corporate treasuries, they can also be attributed to a recalibration of the entire market.
  • During BTC’s rise to a $124,000 record high last month, the narrative was solely focused on bitcoin and it’s perceived correlation with the well-performing tech sector in equities.
  • It’s worth noting that in previous cycles bitcoin dominance slumped all the way down to 39%, indicating that the altcoin resurgence still has some way to go.
  • However, as liquidity flowed into BTC, several altcoins fell to record lows against bitcoin, leading to a number being «oversold» on technical indicators like relative strength index (RSI).

Derivatives Positioning

  • The total open interest across all perpetual instruments increased overnight to $114 billion, data from Laevitas show.
  • A liquidations heatmap for the BTC-USDT pair on Binance shows that bitcoin is trading between two significant liquidation clusters. Above the current price, a $90 million cluster of liquidations sits around the $112,200 mark. To the downside, the largest cluster is valued at $76.6 million, located around $110,000.
  • According to Deribit options data, the 24-hour BTC put-call volume is 26.4K contracts, with calls accounting for 51.6% of the total. The contract with the highest volume is the $108K strike price put expiring Sept. 26.
  • That’s followed by the call at a strike price of $114K expiring on the same day.
  • The funding rate heatmap on Coinglass remains positive for most assets, indicating a general bullish sentiment. The one exception is TRX, which has a negative funding rate, reflecting a -10.2% APR.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.1% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $111,323.58 (24hrs: +0.92%)
  • ETH is up 0.82% at $4,348.94 (24hrs: -0.89%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.59% at 4,046.65(24hrs: +1.01%)
  • It’s worth noting that in previous cycles bitcoin dominance slumped all the way down to 39%, indicating that the altcoin resurgence still has some way to go.

Derivatives Positioning

CD20, Sept. 3 2025 (CoinDesk)

  • DXY is down 0.15% at 98.25
  • Gold futures are up 0.36% at $3,605.20
  • Silver futures are unchanged at $41.62
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 0.88% at 41,938.89
  • Hang Seng closed down 0.6% at 25,343.43
  • FTSE is up 0.43% at 9,155.78
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.84% at 5,335.46
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.55% at 45,295.81
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.69% at 6,415.54
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.82% at 21,279.63
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.18% at 28,615.62
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.32% at 2,760.02
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.2 bps at 4.279%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.46% at 6,454.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.68% at 23,433.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,352.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.59% (+0.04%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0389 (0.01%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,001 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $54.39
  • Total fees: 4.97 BTC / $548,282
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 133,410 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.4 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.85%

Technical Analysis

TA Sept 3 2025

  • PUMP has been one of the strongest tokens in recent days, backed by strong fundamentals such as its buyback program and the recently announced Project Ascend — a series of updates that focuses on growing the Pump.fun ecosystem and infrastructure.
  • After breaking the bearish trendline last week, PUMP has reclaimed the 20-day exponential moving average.
  • Bulls are looking for the token to continue this upward trend and flip the $0.004 level, which has proven to be a tough resistance point over the last month.
  • A successful breakout above this price would signal strong bullish momentum.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $303.56 (-0.32%), +0.74% at $305.80 in pre-market
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $120.14 (-8.97%), +2.22% at $122.81
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.16 (+2.85%), +0.99% at $24.40
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $62.03 (+5.08%), -0.55% at $61.69
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.06 (+0.5%), +0.31% at $16.11
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.09 (+2.4%), +0.5% at $14.16
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14 (-2.44%), unchanged in pre-market
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.64 (+1.8%), +0.1% at $9.65
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $31.64 (+3.33%), +2.84% at $32.54
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.79 (-1.71%), -1.21% at $24.49

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $341.62 (+2.16%), +0.66% at $343.88
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.37 (-0.91%)
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.98 (-4.71%), +0.94% at $17.14
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.89 (-4.7%), +3.48% at $7.13
  • Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $4.85 (-0.21%), +1.44% at $4.92

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $332.8 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.55 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$135.3 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $13.4 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.56 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

COD Sept 3 2025

  • While BTC futures volumes on the CME exchange fell 17% to $148 billion in August, the ETH futures volume surged by 48% to $123 billion, an all-time high.
  • The trading volume of SOL futures and XRP futures also surged to records, rising 41% and 51% to $8.60 billion and $7.32 billion, respectively.
  • The figures highlight the heightened institutional interest in altcoins in recent weeks.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Gold knows this is just the beginning of the global deficit spending crisis.The community governance process for SIMD-0326: Alpenglow is complete. The proposal has passed:The SEC must issue a final decision on Grayscale’s proposed Cardano ETF (GADA) by October 26, 2025.Here are last 10 days volume for $BMNR stock and also today’s top 10 traded stock. I'd personally argue that BTC treasuries are more valuable simply based on the average premium the market is assigning to them.

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Are the Record Flows for Traditional and Crypto ETFs Reducing the Power of the Fed?

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2 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Record-breaking flows into exchange-traded funds may be reshaping markets in ways that even the Federal Reserve can’t control.

New data show U.S.-listed ETFs have become a dominant force in capital markets. According to a Friday press release by ETFGI, an independent consultancy, assets invested in U.S. ETFs hit a record $12.19 trillion at the end of August, up from $10.35 trillion at the close of 2024. Bloomberg, which highlighted the surge on Friday, noted the flows are challenging the traditional influence of the Federal Reserve.

Investors poured $120.65 billion into ETFs during August alone, lifting year-to-date inflows to $799 billion — the highest on record. By comparison, the prior full-year record was $643 billion in 2024.

The growth is concentrated among the biggest providers. iShares leads with $3.64 trillion in assets, followed closely by Vanguard with $3.52 trillion and State Street’s SPDR family at $1.68 trillion.

Together, those three firms control nearly three-quarters of the U.S. ETF market. Equity ETFs drew the largest share of August inflows at $42 billion, while fixed-income funds added $32 billion and commodity ETFs nearly $5 billion.

Crypto-linked ETFs are now a meaningful piece of the picture.

Data from SoSoValue show U.S.-listed spot bitcoin and ether ETFs manage more than $120 billion combined, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC). Bitcoin ETFs alone account for more than $100 billion, equal to about 4% of bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap. Ether ETFs add another $20 billion, despite launching only earlier this year.

The surge underscores how ETFs — traditional and crypto alike — have become the vehicle of choice for investors of all sizes. For many, the flows are automatic.

In the U.S., much of the cash comes from retirement accounts known as 401(k)s, where workers put aside part of every paycheck.

A growing share of that money goes into “target-date funds.” These funds automatically shift investments — moving gradually from stocks into bonds — as savers approach retirement age. Model portfolios and robo-advisers follow similar rules, automatically directing flows into ETFs without investors making day-to-day choices.

Bloomberg described this as an “autopilot” effect: every two weeks, millions of workers’ contributions are funneled into index funds that buy the same baskets of stocks, regardless of valuations, headlines or Fed policy. Analysts cited by Bloomberg say this steady demand helps explain why U.S. equity indexes keep climbing even as data on jobs and inflation show signs of strain.

The trend raises questions about the Fed’s influence.

Traditionally, interest rate cuts or hikes sent strong signals that rippled through stocks, bonds, and commodities. Lower rates typically encouraged risk-taking, while higher rates reined it in. But with ETFs absorbing hundreds of billions of dollars on a set schedule, markets may be less sensitive to central bank cues.

That tension is especially clear this month. With the Fed expected to cut rates by a quarter point on Sept. 17, stocks sit near record highs and gold trades above $3,600 an ounce.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading at around $116,000, not far from its all-time high of $124,000 set in mid August.

Stock, bond and crypto ETFs have seen strong inflows, suggesting investors are positioning for easier money — but also reflecting a structural tide of passive allocations.

Supporters told Bloomberg the rise of ETFs has lowered costs and broadened access to markets. But critics quoted in the same report warn that the sheer scale of inflows could amplify volatility if redemptions cluster in a downturn, since ETFs move whole baskets of securities at once.

As Bloomberg put it, this “perpetual machine” of passive investing may be reshaping markets in ways that even the central bank struggles to counter.

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Corporate Bitcoin Buying Slows in August as Treasuries Add $5B

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2 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Bitcoin’s rally lost momentum in August, and slowing corporate accumulation may explain why.

Tracked treasury entities added 47,718 BTC last month ($5.2 billion), down from more than 100,000 BTC in July, according to the latest Bitcoin Treasuries Adoption Report. That brought total holdings across public companies, private firms, governments and ETFs to 3.68 million BTC, valued at $400 billion at month-end. The monthly increase of 1.2% was far weaker than July’s 4.6%.

This easing in BTC acquisitions by corporate entities could offer an explanation for BTC’s rally to $123,000 not being sustained. Bitcoin hit an all-time high in mid August, but fell over 11.5% by the end of the month to sit below $109,000.

The slowdown came despite aggressive fundraising announcements. More than $15 billion in equity raises were outlined by treasury firms including Strategy (MSTR), KindlyMD (NAKA) and Metaplanet (3350). Those commitments have yet to translate into immediate purchases, leaving a gap between fundraising headlines and actual market impact.

Even with the softer pace, August saw important milestones. Public company holdings crossed the 1 million BTC threshold for the first time, doubling from late 2024, according to the report.

Among individual firms, healthcare company KindlyMD made the second-largest buy of the month with a 5,744 BTC purchase worth $679 million. Japan’s Metaplanet added 1,859 BTC across four different transactions.

Crypto exchange Bullish (BLSH) also joining the treasury rankings after its August IPO. The firm revealed it has held 24,000 BTC since March, valued at $2.6 billion at the end of August. CEO Tom Farley described the company’s strategy as part of an ongoing institutional wave, telling CNBC it “feels like institutional investors think this could be the moment.» The exchange’s parent company Bullish Global is also the owner of CoinDesk.

Despite those high-profile moves, the aggregate value of tracked treasuries fell from $428 billion in July to $400 billion in August as bitcoin’s price eased to $108,695 by the end of the month.

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AI, Mining News: GPU Gold Rush: Why Bitcoin Miners Are Powering AI’s Expansion

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9 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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When Core Scientific signed a $3.5 billion deal to host artificial intelligence (AI) data centers earlier this year, it wasn’t chasing the next crypto token — it was chasing a steadier paycheck. Once known for its vast fleets of bitcoin mining rigs, the company is now part of a growing trend: converting energy-intensive mining operations into high-performance AI facilities.

Bitcoin miners like Core, Hut 8 (HUT) and TeraWulf (WULF) are swapping ASIC machines — the dedicated bitcoin mining computer — for GPU clusters, driven by the lure of AI’s explosive growth and the harsh economics of crypto mining.

Power play

It’s no secret that bitcoin mining requires an extensive amount of energy, which is the biggest cost of minting a new digital asset.

Back in the 2021 bull run, when the Bitcoin network’s hashrate and difficulty were low, miners were making out like bandits with margins as much as 90%. Then came the brutal crypto winter and the halving event, which slashed the mining reward in half. In 2025, with surging hashrate and energy prices, miners are now struggling to survive with razor-thin margins.

However, the need for power—the biggest input cost—became a blessing in disguise for these miners, who needed a different strategy to diversify their revenue sources.

Due to rising competition for mining, the miners continued to procure more machines to stay afloat, and with it came the need for more megawatts of electricity at a cheaper price. Miners invested heavily in securing these low-cost energy sources, such as hydroelectric or stranded natural gas sites, and developed expertise in managing high-density cooling and electrical systems—skills honed during the crypto boom of the early 2020s.

This is what captured the attention of AI and cloud computing firms. While bitcoin relies on specialized ASICs, AI thrives on versatile GPUs like Nvidia’s H100 series, which require similar high-power environments but for parallel processing tasks in machine learning. Instead of building out data centers from scratch, taking over mining infrastructure, which already has power ready, became a faster way to grow an increasing appetite for AI-related infrastructure.

Essentially, these miners aren’t just pivoting—they’re retrofitting.

The cooling systems, low-cost energy contracts, and power-dense infrastructure they built during the crypto boom now serve a new purpose: feeding the AI models of companies like OpenAI and Google.

Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.

Terraforming AI

Bitcoin mining has effectively «terraformed» the terrain for AI compute by building out scalable, power-efficient infrastructure that AI desperately needs.

As Nicholas Gregory, Board Director at Fragrant Prosperity, noted, «It can be argued bitcoin paved the way for digital dollar payments as can be seen with USDT/Tether. It also looks like bitcoin terraformed data centres for AI/GPU compute.»

This pre-existing «terraforming» allows miners to retrofit facilities quickly, often in under a year, compared to the multi-year timelines for traditional data center builds. Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.

Higher returns

In practice, it means miners can flip a facility in less than a year—far faster than the multi-year timeline of a new data center.

But AI isn’t a cheap upgrade.

Bitcoin mining setups are relatively modest, with costs ranging from $300,000 to $800,000 per megawatt (MW) excluding ASICs, allowing for quick scalability in response to market cycles. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure demands significantly higher capex due to the need for advanced liquid cooling, redundant power systems, and the GPUs themselves, which can cost tens of thousands per unit and face global supply shortages. Despite the steeper upfront costs, AI offers miners up to 25 times more revenue per kilowatt-hour than bitcoin mining, making the pivot economically compelling amid rising energy prices and declining crypto profitability.

A niche industry worth billions

As AI continues to surge and crypto profits tighten, bitcoin mining could become a niche game—one reserved for energy-rich regions or highly efficient players, especially as the next in 2028 could render many operations unprofitable without breakthroughs in efficiency or energy costs.

While projections show the global crypto mining market growing to $3.3 billion by 2030, at a modest 6.9% CAGR, the billions would be overshadowed by AI’s exponential expansion. According to KBV Research, the global AI in mining market is projected to reach $435.94 billion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.6%.

With investors already seeing dollar signs in this shift, the broader trend suggests the future is either a hybrid or a full conversion to AI, where stable contracts with hyperscalers promise longevity over crypto’s boom-bust cycles.

This evolution not only repurposes idle assets but also underscores how yesterday’s crypto frontiers are forging tomorrow’s AI empires.

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