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Bitcoin Traders Eye Upside as BTC Holds Above $110K: Crypto Daybook Americas

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3 недели ago

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By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As August draws toward a close, bitcoin (BTC) bulls may welcome the end of a modest pullback, with the largest cryptocurrency down around 4% for the month and 12% off its all-time high of $124,500.

For now, it’s little changed around $110,580, up less than 0.5% over 24 hours while ether (ETH) has added 3.4%. The CoinDesk 20 index, a measure of the broader market, rose 2.7% in the same period.

A negative end to August would halt a streak of four consecutive green months, the longest run since March last year. Encouragingly, August has held up better than in the past three years, and September should bring a pickup in trading activity as the holiday season winds down.

On-chain data shows bitcoin traders used the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP), currently $108,800, as support. This metric tracks the average acquisition price of coins moved on-chain in the past 155 days and excludes exchange reserves. In bull markets, the STH RP often acts as a key support level.

The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which measures profits or losses on coins younger than 155 days, indicates that short-term investors are currently selling at a loss. Historically, this behavior tends to appear near local market bottoms. But capitulation has yet to be seen.

Meanwhile, the options market points to a “max pain” level at $116,000. Max pain is the strike price at which the largest number of options expire worthless, generally causing the greatest financial pain to option holders and greatest benefit to options sellers. With this level above the spot price, it suggests upside relief could be on the horizon.

Beyond crypto, U.S. trade tensions escalated again as Washington imposed 50% tariffs on India, doubling earlier duties after talks broke down. The move, aimed at curbing India’s purchases of Russian oil, highlights strained ties between President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Analysts warn of falling exports, job losses and a potential 1% drag on GDP growth.

For bitcoin traders, the key range to watch is $113,500 to $117,200, where the CME futures gap remains open. Historically, such gaps tend to be filled, making this zone one to monitor closely. Stay alert.

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Aug. 27, 3 a.m.: Mantle Network (MNT), an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, will roll out its mainnet upgrade to version 1.3.1, enabling support for Ethereum’s Prague update and introducing new features for platform users and developers.
  • Macro
    • Aug. 28, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.7%
    • Aug. 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (2nd Estimate) Q2 GDP data.
      • Core PCE Prices QoQ st. 2.6% vs. Prev. 3.5%
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. -0.5%
      • GDP Price Index QoQ Est. 2% vs. Prev. 3.8%
      • GDP Sales QoQEst. 6.3% vs. Prev. -3.1%
      • PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.1% vs. Prev. 3.7%
      • Real Consumer Spending QoQ Est. 1.4% vs. Prev. 0.5%
    • Aug. 28, 1:30 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Statistics Institute releases July unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Prev. 7.3%
    • Aug. 28, 6:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak on “Payments” at the Economic Club of Miami Dinner, Miami, Fla. Watch live.
    • Aug. 29, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases Q2 GDP data.
      • GDP Growth Rate Annualized Est. -0.6% vs. Prev. 2.2%
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 0.5%
    • Aug. 29, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases July consumer income and expenditure data.
      • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
      • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.8%
      • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%
      • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.6%
      • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.3%
      • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Aug. 29, 11 a.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases July unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 8.9% vs. Prev. 8.6%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00
    • Aug. 28: IREN (IREN), post-market, $0.18

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • Aug. 28: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 1.78% of its circulating supply worth $26.36 million.
    • Sep. 1: Sui (SUI) to release 1.25% of its circulating supply worth $153.1 million.
    • Sep. 2: Ethena (ENA) to release 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $25.64 million.
    • Sep. 5: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $13.26 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Aug. 27: Bitlayer (BTR) to list on Kraken, KuCoin and LBank
    • Aug. 27: sBTC (SBTC) to list on Moso.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration through Sept. 1.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • Cronos (CRO) defied Tuesday’s bearish crypto sentiment, rallying more than 56% after Crypto.com and Trump Media (DJT) said they planned to create a $6.4 billion CRO treasury company.
  • Crypto treasury announcements have occurred almost daily over the past month as companies begin to adopt and adapt the approach pioneered by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR).
  • Still, the price action often fails to match what might be perceived as a bullish event. When Verb Technology Co. (VERB) announced a $558 million private placement to establish a toncoin (TON) treasury, TON almost immediately fell by around 10%.
  • This CRO deal is different. Firstly it is tied to Trump Media, a company linked to President Donald Trump, but secondly — and arguably more importantly — it gives a use case to the cronos token that was previously used predominately as an exchange token for Crypto.com.
  • The deal includes the creation of a new rewards system on Truth Social that will allow users to convert the platform’s “gems” into CRO tokens, with further plans to enable subscription payments and discounted services using CRO.
  • Bloomberg noted that Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural committee and also visited Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home after the election victory.
  • CRO currently trades at $0.225 despite being down at $0.141 last week, the news lifted 24 hour trading volume up by 1,300% to more than $1 billion as it became a market outlier while bitcoin and ether languished near critical levels of support.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Bitcoin open interest (OI) across top derivatives venues has started to slip, which is in line with the downward price action over the past few days, implying traders are actively exiting their leveraged positions.
  • BTC OI now stands at $30.3 billion, just shy of the all time high at $32.6 billion, Velo data shows. Three-month annualized basis is still rising, and is currently 8%- 9% across all exchanges, implying that the basis trade is still profitable.
  • In options, bitcoin’s upward-sloping implied volatility curve suggests the market expects long-term volatility to be higher than short-term, while other metrics point to a more immediate bearish outlook.
  • Specifically, the recent move of the 25 delta skew into negative territory for near-term maturities indicates a clear shift in market sentiment, with traders paying a premium for puts over calls to gain downside protection.
  • The bearish sentiment is confirmed by the 24-hour put/call volume, which shows a significant skew towards puts, another sign traders are actively hedging against or speculating on a price decline.
  • Funding rate APRs across major perpetual swap venues are starting to bounce back at around 8%-10% annualized, according to Velo data.
  • BTC annualized funding on Binance turned negative (-0.39%) for a short period today before bouncing back to around 10%. This indicates that while there may have been pockets of bearish sentiment, the overall market trend is starting to be more supportive by traders willing to pay a premium to bet on a price increase.
  • Coinglass data shows $266 million in 24 hour liquidations, skewed 58% towards shorts. ETH ($99 million), BTC ($47 million) and SOL ($20 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $111,593 as a core liquidation level to monitor in case of a price rise.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.34% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $110,981.61 (24hrs: +0.72%)
  • ETH is up 0.41% at $4,605.94 (24hrs: +3.56%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.11% at 4,130.44 (24hrs: +3.15%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 2.93%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0076% (8.3297% annualized) on Binance

CD20, Aug. 27 2025 (CoinDesk)

  • DXY is up 0.37% at 98.59
  • Gold futures are unchanged at $3,431.20
  • Silver futures are down 0.65% at $38.35
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 0.3% at 42,520.27
  • Hang Seng closed down 1.27% at 25,201.76
  • FTSE is unchanged at 9,273.12
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.16% at 5,392.10
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday up 0.3% at 45,418.07
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.41% at 6,465.94
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.44% at 21,544.27
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.6% at 28,339.88
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.43% at 2,715.37
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.5 bps at 4.271%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,485.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 23,596.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,516.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.03% (-0.29%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.04129 (0.32%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 960 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $54.07
  • Total fees: 3.19 BTC / $351,661
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 137,600 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 32.8 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.28%

Technical Analysis

Chart of the SOL-BTC ratio

  • The SOL-BTC weekly chart is approaching a key resistance level that, at the moment, is looking likely to be broken.
  • This SOL strength is more of a result of a bullish RSI divergence that seems to be already in play, as confirmed by the magnitude of the move.
  • The ratio acts as a good proxy for the strength of altcoins in general, and a confirmed break in the pair would signal continued strength in select altcoins relative to BTC.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $351.36 (+2.38%), -0.6% at $349.26 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $308.48 (+0.81%), -0.28% at $307.62
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $129.05 (+3.04%), -0.46% at $128.45
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.72 (+0.69%), +0.36% at $24.81
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $66.08 (+1.38%), -0.42% at $65.80
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.84 (+2.86%), -0.63% at $15.74
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.69 (+3.09%), -0.88% at $13.57
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.04 (+2.63%), +0.36% at $14.09
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.68 (+2.43%), -0.41% at $9.64
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $29.39 (+2.73%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $30.79 (+2.56%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.98 (+2.74%)
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $19.92 (+3.91%), -1.2% at $19.68

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $88.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.08 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $455 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $13.34 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.43 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

Chart showing supply change for Ethena's USDe stablecoin.

  • In August, creation of Ethena’s USDe stablecoin reached a record high, with over $3.78 billion in new supply.
  • USDe’s total circulating supply has now climbed past $12 billion, solidifying its position as the third-largest stablecoin by market capitalization.
  • The monthly growth notably outpaced the $3.4 billion issuance of Tether’s market-leading USDT for the same period.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

(Sina_21st/X)(Benjamin Cowen/X)(sassal.eth/X)(Andre Dragosch/X)(Stock Market News/X)(James Van Straten/X)

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BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Money Printing Extending Crypto Cycle Well Into 2026

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4 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Arthur Hayes believes the current crypto bull market has further to run, supported by global monetary trends he sees as only in their early stages.

Speaking in a recent interview with Kyle Chassé, a longtime bitcoin and Web3 entrepreneur, the BitMEX co-founder and current Maelstrom CIO argued that governments around the world are far from finished with aggressive monetary expansion.

He pointed to U.S. politics in particular, saying that President Donald Trump’s second term has not yet fully unleashed the spending programs that could arrive from mid-2026 onward. Hayes suggested that if expectations for money printing become extreme, he may consider taking partial profits, but for now he sees investors underestimating the scale of liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto.

Hayes tied his outlook to broader geopolitical shifts, including what he described as the erosion of a unipolar world order. In his view, such periods of instability tend to push policymakers toward fiscal stimulus and central bank easing as tools to keep citizens and markets calm.

He also raised the possibility of strains within Europe — even hinting that a French default could destabilize the euro — as another factor likely to accelerate global printing presses. While he acknowledged these policies eventually risk ending badly, he argued that the blow-off top of the cycle is still ahead.

Turning to bitcoin, Hayes pushed back on concerns that the asset has stalled after reaching a record $124,000 in mid-August.

He contrasted its performance with other asset classes, noting that while U.S. stocks are higher in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis. Hayes pointed out that real estate also lags when measured against gold, and only a handful of U.S. technology giants have consistently outperformed.

When measured against bitcoin, however, he believes all traditional benchmarks appear weak.

Hayes’ message was that bitcoin’s dominance becomes even clearer once assets are viewed through the lens of currency debasement.

For those frustrated that bitcoin is not posting fresh highs every week, Hayes suggested that expectations are misplaced.

In his telling, investors from the traditional world and those in crypto actually share the same premise: governments and central banks will print money whenever growth falters. Hayes says traditional finance tends to express this view by buying bonds on leverage, while crypto investors hold bitcoin as the “faster horse.”

His conclusion is that patience is essential. Hayes argued that the real edge of holding bitcoin comes from years of compounding outperformance rather than short-term speculation.

Coupled with what he sees as an inevitable wave of money creation through the rest of the decade, he believes the present crypto cycle could stretch well into 2026, far from exhausted.

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Bitcoin Bulls Bet on Fed Rate Cuts To Drive Bond Yields Lower, But There’s a Catch

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5 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25%. This move will likely be followed by more easing in the coming months, taking the rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months. The fed funds futures market is discounting a drop in the fed funds rate to less than 3% by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will push Treasury yields sharply lower, thereby encouraging increased risk-taking across both the economy and financial markets. However, the dynamics are more complex and could lead to outcomes that differ significantly from what is anticipated.

While the expected Fed rate cuts could weigh on the two-year Treasury yield, those at the long end of the curve may remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and sticky inflation.

Debt supply

The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills (short-term instruments) and eventually longer-duration Treasury notes to finance the Trump administration’s recently approved package of extended tax cuts and increased defense spending. According to the Congressional Budget Office, these policies are likely to add over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years, while Increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion, or roughly $5 trillion if made permanent.

The increased supply of debt will likely weigh on bond prices and lift yields. (bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction).

«The U.S. Treasury’s eventual move to issue more notes and bonds will pressure longer-term yields higher,» analysts at T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, said in a recent report.

Fiscal concerns have already permeated the longer-duration Treasury notes, where investors are demanding higher yields to lend money to the government for 10 years or more, known as the term premium.

The ongoing steepening of the yield curve – which is reflected in the widening spread between 10- and 2-year yields, as well as 30- and 5-year yields and driven primarily by the relative resilience of long-term rates – also signals increasing concerns about fiscal policy.

Kathy Jones, managing director and chief income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, voiced a similar opinion this month, noting that «investors are demanding a higher yield for long-term Treasuries to compensate for the risk of inflation and/or depreciation of the dollar as a consequence of high debt levels.»

These concerns could keep long-term bond yields from falling much, Jones added.

Stubborn inflation

Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, bolstering expectations for a quicker pace of Fed rate cuts and a decline in Treasury yields. However, inflation has recently edged higher, complicating that outlook.

When the Fed cut rates in September last year, the year-on-year inflation rate was 2.4%. Last month, it stood at 2.9%, the highest since January’s 3% reading. In other words, inflation has regained momentum, weakening the case for faster Fed rate cuts and a drop in Treasury yields.

Easing priced in?

Yields have already come under pressure, likely reflecting the market’s anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The 10-year yield slipped to 4% last week, hitting the lowest since April 8, according to data source TradingView. The benchmark yield has dropped over 60 basis points from its May high of 4.62%.

According to Padhraic Garvey, CFA, regional head of research, Americas at ING, the drop to 4% is likely an overshoot to the downside.

«We can see the 10yr Treasury yield targeting still lower as an attack on 4% is successful. But that’s likely an overshoot to the downside. Higher inflation prints in the coming months will likely cause long-end yields some issues, requiring a significant adjustment,» Garvey said in a note to clients last week.

Perhaps rate cuts have been priced in, and yields could bounce back hard following the Sept. 17 move, in a repeat of the 2024 pattern. The dollar index suggests the same, as noted early this week.

Lesson from 2024

The 10-year yield fell by over 100 basis points to 3.60% in roughly five months leading up to the September 2024 rate cut.

The central bank delivered additional rate cuts in November and December. Yet, the 10-year yield bottomed out with the September move and rose to 4.57% by year-end, eventually reaching a high of 4.80% in January of this year.

According to ING, the upswing in yields following the easing was driven by economic resilience, sticky inflation, and fiscal concerns.

As of today, while the economy has weakened, inflation and fiscal concerns have worsened as discussed earlier, which means the 2024 pattern could repeat itself.

What it means for BTC?

While BTC rallied from $70,000 to over $100,000 between October and December 2024 despite rising long-term yields, this surge was primarily fueled by optimism around pro-crypto regulatory policies under President Trump and growing corporate adoption of BTC and other tokens.

However, these supporting narratives have significantly weakened looking back a year later. Consequently, the possibility of a potential hardening of yields in the coming months weighing over bitcoin cannot be dismissed.

Read: Here Are the 3 Things That Could Spoil Bitcoin’s Rally Towards $120K

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Are the Record Flows for Traditional and Crypto ETFs Reducing the Power of the Fed?

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5 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Record-breaking flows into exchange-traded funds may be reshaping markets in ways that even the Federal Reserve can’t control.

New data show U.S.-listed ETFs have become a dominant force in capital markets. According to a Friday press release by ETFGI, an independent consultancy, assets invested in U.S. ETFs hit a record $12.19 trillion at the end of August, up from $10.35 trillion at the close of 2024. Bloomberg, which highlighted the surge on Friday, noted the flows are challenging the traditional influence of the Federal Reserve.

Investors poured $120.65 billion into ETFs during August alone, lifting year-to-date inflows to $799 billion — the highest on record. By comparison, the prior full-year record was $643 billion in 2024.

The growth is concentrated among the biggest providers. iShares leads with $3.64 trillion in assets, followed closely by Vanguard with $3.52 trillion and State Street’s SPDR family at $1.68 trillion.

Together, those three firms control nearly three-quarters of the U.S. ETF market. Equity ETFs drew the largest share of August inflows at $42 billion, while fixed-income funds added $32 billion and commodity ETFs nearly $5 billion.

Crypto-linked ETFs are now a meaningful piece of the picture.

Data from SoSoValue show U.S.-listed spot bitcoin and ether ETFs manage more than $120 billion combined, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC). Bitcoin ETFs alone account for more than $100 billion, equal to about 4% of bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap. Ether ETFs add another $20 billion, despite launching only earlier this year.

The surge underscores how ETFs — traditional and crypto alike — have become the vehicle of choice for investors of all sizes. For many, the flows are automatic.

In the U.S., much of the cash comes from retirement accounts known as 401(k)s, where workers put aside part of every paycheck.

A growing share of that money goes into “target-date funds.” These funds automatically shift investments — moving gradually from stocks into bonds — as savers approach retirement age. Model portfolios and robo-advisers follow similar rules, automatically directing flows into ETFs without investors making day-to-day choices.

Bloomberg described this as an “autopilot” effect: every two weeks, millions of workers’ contributions are funneled into index funds that buy the same baskets of stocks, regardless of valuations, headlines or Fed policy. Analysts cited by Bloomberg say this steady demand helps explain why U.S. equity indexes keep climbing even as data on jobs and inflation show signs of strain.

The trend raises questions about the Fed’s influence.

Traditionally, interest rate cuts or hikes sent strong signals that rippled through stocks, bonds, and commodities. Lower rates typically encouraged risk-taking, while higher rates reined it in. But with ETFs absorbing hundreds of billions of dollars on a set schedule, markets may be less sensitive to central bank cues.

That tension is especially clear this month. With the Fed expected to cut rates by a quarter point on Sept. 17, stocks sit near record highs and gold trades above $3,600 an ounce.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading at around $116,000, not far from its all-time high of $124,000 set in mid August.

Stock, bond and crypto ETFs have seen strong inflows, suggesting investors are positioning for easier money — but also reflecting a structural tide of passive allocations.

Supporters told Bloomberg the rise of ETFs has lowered costs and broadened access to markets. But critics quoted in the same report warn that the sheer scale of inflows could amplify volatility if redemptions cluster in a downturn, since ETFs move whole baskets of securities at once.

As Bloomberg put it, this “perpetual machine” of passive investing may be reshaping markets in ways that even the central bank struggles to counter.

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