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Bitcoin Traders Eye $109K as Trump Anticipation Builds, BTC ETFs Rake in Nearly $1B
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A return to markets after the holidays and anticipation of Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president is building bullish sentiment for bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
The asset is up 10% in the past week, retaking the $102,000 level late Monday and reversing nearly all losses from early December. It fell from a peak of nearly $109,000 on Dec.17 to a local low of just below $92,000 on Dec.30, which momentarily sparked fears of a deeper downturn.
The surge comes as U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) raked in $987 million on Monday, their highest since Nov.21, data from SoSoValue shows.
Fidelity’s FBTC led inflows with $370 million pouring in, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT with $209 million and Ark Invest’s ARKB with $71 million. Nine of the twelve ETFs recorded inflows, with none showing outflows in a standout day for the cohort.
Trump’s expected crypto policies and broader economic plans have brought back positive sentiment among traders — bumping up BTC prices in a usual precursor to an altcoin rally.
“We believe that the demand for bitcoin is manifesting itself after a downbeat Fed outlook in late December put the brakes on a Santa Claus rally,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message Tuesday.
“Now that traders have wrapped up their vacations and are back to work, they’ve resumed purchases of Bitcoin, crypto, and stocks in a bullish trend as we approach Donald Trump’s inauguration,” Mei added.
Some traders are targeting the $109,000 level in the short term before a bullish trend is confirmed, setting the stage for even higher prices.
“So far, the technical picture looks like a classic correction completion with a resumption of the growth from the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the rally since the beginning of November,” shared Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro chief market analyst, in an email. “This scenario will be confirmed if the historical highs of around $109,000 are confidently breached. At the same time, we expect Bitcoin’s growth to accelerate after the $100,000 mark.”
Fibonacci levels are a technical analysis tool to identify potential support and resistance points where price movements might pause or reverse. Some traders believe that tracking Fibonacci levels can offer predictive value in identifying key price levels — which may become a self-fulfilling prophecy that causes price reactions in the market.
As such, market volatility is expected to stay low until the U.S. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which some believe will kick-start the new trading year with “decision-makers fully back at work,” per Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA.
Strong NFP data could strengthens the U.S. dollar, potentially leading to higher interest rates, which can negatively affect risk assets like stocks and bitcoin.
“However, the highest volatility event for the month is priced to be FOMC at the end of the month as the economic stats are priced to show ‘soft landing’ signs soon,” Fan added.
BTC trades just above $101,600 in Asian morning hours Tuesday, up 2% in the past 24 hours. The broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens by market cap is up 0.53%.
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U.S. Law Enforcement Seizes $31M in Crypto Tied to Uranium Finance Hack
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U.S. authorities have seized about $31 million in crypto tied to the 2021 hack of Uranium Finance, according to a Monday X post from the Southern District of New York (SDNY).
According to the post, the seizure was the result of a joint effort between SDNY and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) in San Diego. A spokesperson for SDNY did not return CoinDesk’s request for comment before press time, and no further details about the seizure or any related investigation were immediately available.
Uranium Finance was essentially a clone of automated market maker (AMM) Uniswap deployed on Binance’s BNB chain (then called Binance Smart Chain). In April 2021, a hacker exploited a bug in Uranium’s pair contracts to steal $50 million in various tokens. At the time of the incident, the Uranium Finance hack was one of the largest monetary exploits in decentralized finance (DeFi) history.
Read more: Binance Chain DeFi Exchange Uranium Finance Loses $50M in Exploit
After the exploit, the hacker attempted to launder a portion of the funds in a variety of ways, including using crypto mixer Tornado Cash, depositing small amounts of crypto into centralized exchanges, and, according to blockchain sleuth ZachXBT, perhaps through purchasing rare and highly valuable Magic: The Gathering trading cards.
Uranium Finance shuttered after the hack, leaving victims without answers or financial restitution. The partial recovery, which comes nearly four years after the initial attack, offers the first glimmer of hope for victims to see some of their money returned.
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Ethereum’s Pectra Upgrade Goes Live on ‘Holesky’ Testnet, But Fails to Finalize
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Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade went live on the Holesky testnet on Monday but failed to finalize in the expected time.
Pectra was activated on the Holesky testnet at 21:55 UTC (4:55 p.m. ET), but did not initially finalize according to blockchain data.
Finality is the state in which, once a transaction is confirmed and added to a block, it is immutable and cannot be reversed. A testnet is a network that copies a main blockchain (in this case Ethereum), and is used to test upgrades or new code before it goes to the main network.
It is not immediately clear why the Pectra upgrade did not finalize on Holesky. Ethereum developers were discussing Monday over the Eth R&D Discord channel what the issue could be.
This is not the first time an upgrade has not finalized on an Etheruem test network. In January 2024, when the developers were testing the Dencun upgrade, the hard fork did not initially finalize on the Goerli testnet.
What is Pectra?
The Pectra hard fork combines together 11 major upgrades, or «Ethereum improvement proposals» (EIPs), into one package. At the heart of this is EIP-7702, which is supposed to improve the user-experience of crypto wallets. The proposal, which was scribbled by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin in just 22 minutes, will allow wallets to have some smart contract capabilities, as part of a broader strategy to bring account abstraction to Ethereum — a concept that makes the usability of wallets a lot less clunky.
Another key proposal, EIP-7251, will allow validators to increase the maximum amount they can stake from 32 to 2,048 ETH. The proposal is supposed to ease some of the technicalities that validators who stake ETH face today: Those that stake more than their 32 ETH have to spread that across multiple validators, making the process a bit of a nuisance. By lifting the maximum stake limit and combining those validators, it could speed up the process of setting up new nodes.
Holesky is the first of two testnets to run through a simulation of Pectra. The next test is supposed to occur on the Sepolia testnet on Mar. 5. But according to Christine Kim, a Vice President of Research at Galaxy, developers could delay it depending on the scale of today’s issue.
After Pectra goes live on both testnets, developers will ink in a final date to activate the upgrade on mainnet.
Pectra was originally on track to be Ethereum’s biggest upgrade to date, and it’s the first big change to the blockchain in almost a year. Developers decided that Pectra was too ambitious, and they agreed to split the original package into two.
Read more: Ethereum Developers Finally Schedule ‘Pectra’ Upgrade
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Bitcoin Slips Under $94K as Stocks Try to Shake Last Week’s Jitters
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Bitcoin (BTC) continued to slide on Monday, hurt by not just by massive bearish price action in most of the rest of crypto, but also as U.S. stocks struggle to pull out of their recent downturn.
Falling to about $93,900 as stocks closed, bitcoin is down 1.9% in the last 24 hours. Ether (ETH) is lower by 5.9% over the same time frame. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 5.1%.
Following last week’s major declines, an attempted rally by the major U.S. stock averages failed Monday afternoon, with the Nasdaq closing down another 1.2% and the S&P 500 0.5%.
The worst performer among the major cryptos was solana’s (SOL), down nearly 10% over the past 24 hours and a whopping 41% over the past month. In addition to its role in what appears to be a fading memecoin craze, SOL is also facing token unlocks in March and a 30% increase in SOL inflation due to the recent implementation of SIMD-96, which adjusted the network’s fee structure. At $151 at press time, SOL has now more than given up its post-election gains.
“Trying to communicate to folks who may be feeling complacency/denial that $95,000 is still not a bad exit price relative to where I think we could trade in 6-12 months,” Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital, a crypto hedge fund that specializes in using macroeconomic data for its trades, posted on social media.
Thompson estimated that there was an 80% chance that bitcoin won’t make new highs over the next three months and a 51% chance we won’t see new highs for even the next 12 months.
Turning to the U.S. economy, Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, said risks to the labor market are growing. Real incomes are slowing down, the housing market is getting worse, state and local governments are pulling back on spending. Worryingly, market consensus sees no economic slowdown in sight, with GDP median forecast at roughly 2.5%.
“If 2023 was about being surprised to the upside, there is more risk in 2025 of being surprised to the downside,” Dutta wrote.
“A passive tightening of monetary policy is the dominant risk and that has important implications for financial market investors,» Dutta continued. «I would anticipate a decline in longer-term interest rates and a selloff in equity prices as risk appetite wanes. For the economy, expect conditions to deteriorate in the jobs market.”
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