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Bitcoin Traders’ Are Looking at a Key Data Point in Fed Meeting and Its Not Interest Rate Decision

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The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Open Market Committee, comprising 12 officials, is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference half an hour later.

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates that the central bank is again likely to hold ground and keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% despite President Donald Trump’s repeated demands for lower borrowing costs.

The rate decision, therefore, is a foregone conclusion and crypto traders are likely to focus on the interest rate dot plot – the graphical representation that records each Fed official’s projections for interest rates.

«With rates expected to stay on hold, traders are focused on the dot‑plot: fewer than two projected cuts would harden the higher‑for‑longer narrative; a dovish surprise would lighten the dollar and could unfreeze crypto’s bid. Until then, patience rules,» crypto trading and market-making firm XBTO said.

A hawkish dot plot, suggesting fewer rate cuts, could put pressure on bitcoin and the broader crypto market. BTC’s rally has already stalled above $100,000, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding to the trade war-led inflation uncertainty.

«During 2025, expectations for rate cuts have already declined sharply, from an initial 100 basis points to just 50 basis points currently. This revision is driven by a resilient labor market and inflation that, while moderated, remains above the 2% target. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could further reduce anticipated cuts to just 25 basis points,» Matteo Greco, senior analyst at Fineqia, said in an email.

While the hawkish Fed could breed downside volatility in bitcoin, it will likely worsen the U.S. fiscal situation by adding to the nation’s debt servicing costs and thereby strengthening the long-term appeal of assets like gold and bitcoin.

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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

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Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.

June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.

COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.

The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.

Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.

The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.

Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.

Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.

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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

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Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.

Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.

The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.

Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.

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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

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XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.

One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.

On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.

XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.

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