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Bitcoin to Overcome $100K Despite Pullback, Has Plenty of More Room Before Topping: CryptoQuant

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Bitcoin’s (<a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin» target=»_blank»>BTC</a>) pullback from the $100,000 level after continuously hitting fresh new highs is only a temporary setback before eventually shooting past the barrier to even higher prices, crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant said.

According to a Wednesday report shared with CoinDesk, multiple blockchain data metrics suggest that the largest crypto has more room to run before topping.

CryptoQuant’s custom P&L index, which combines several on-chain valuation metrics to signal whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued, shows that the asset is firmly in a bull market but far from the overvalued levels it reached at the previous market peaks in 2021, 2017 and 2013.

The firm’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has only started to heat up after dipping slightly into bear market territory earlier this year as BTC corrected from March’s record $73,000 to $50,000. The metric is nowhere near the overheated levels seen at local tops at this March or other local tops.

Meanwhile, participation of retail investors is still muted, contrary to the typical buying frenzy observed around previous cycle tops. Per CryptoQuant data, retail sold 41,000 bitcoin since October lowering their holdings likely to take profits. Large investors, meanwhile, increased holdings by 130,000 BTC during the same period.

New investors aren’t rushing to enter the market either. The value of BTC held by new investors, or addresses holding the asset since less than six months ago, stands at 50% of the total value invested in bitcoin (Realized Cap). That’s far below the 80%-90% levels in 2017 and 2021.

«Price tops typically occur when new investors enter the market to buy at extremely high prices, which causes them to hold a large proportion of the total value invested,» the authors said. «Previous bull cycles have ended when retail investors buy aggressively, which is not the case today.»

Bitcoin’s peak target

Over the past week, BTC’s violent run-up after Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory was halted at the $100,000 barrier, sliding back as much as 9% from its latest record. On Thursday, CoinDesk data shows, it changed hands at around $95,000.

Despite the setback, surpassing the $100,000 barrier is only a matter of time, CryptoQuant analysts said.

Previous bitcoin bull markets topped around the upper band of bitcoin’s realized price metric, set at four times the average price at which all BTC in circulation has been transferred for the last time. Data shows that the realized price is currently at $36,000-$37,000 and quickly rising, marking the upper band at $147,000.

If the pattern repeats, BTC could rally to at least $147,000 before reaching a market cycle top, per CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant isn’t the only firm that is bullish on bitcoin’s rally. Recently, Galaxy Research said the price is expected to reach $100,000 in the near term and may run up higher, citing increasing institutional adoption and the potential for the creation of bitcoin nation-state reserves.

Read more: <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/27/bitcoin-bull-market-is-far-from-over-galaxy-research-says» target=»_blank»>Bitcoin Bull Market Is Far From Over, Galaxy Research Says</a>

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Bitcoin Options Open Interest Hit Record $42.5B on Deribit as Traders Eye Next Bull Target for BTC

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«Don’t be surprised if buying activity picks up across the spectrum of products tied to BTC,» CoinDesk said in Tuesday’s edition of the Crypto Daybook Americas, presenting a bullish case for bitcoin.

As bitcoin’s (BTC) price jumped to new lifetime highs above $111K during Thursday’s Asian trading hours it spurred record activity in the Deribit-listed options market.

The notional open interest (OI), or the dollar value of the number of active or open options contracts, rose to a record $42.5 billion, Deribit’s CEO, Luuk Strijers, told CoinDesk.

Options are derivative contracts that give the right but not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date. A call provides the right to buy, representing an implicit bullish bet on the market, while a put option offers insurance against price slides.

BTC’s move to record highs saw traders chase upside through higher strike call options.

«Most traded strikes in the past 24h: $120K and $130K upside calls for May and June expiry. Highest OI now sits at the $110K, $120K, and $300K June 27 strikes — showing bullish conviction,» Strijers said.

Deribit is the world’s largest crypto options exchange, accounting for nearly 80% of the global crypto options activity. The exchange also offers trading in perpetuals and spot markets. The overall open interest across crypto options and perpetual futures segments has also hit a record high of over $45 billion.

Publicly traded crypto exchange Coinbase has planned to acquire derivatives exchange Deribit in a $2.9 billion deal.

Read more: In $2.9B Deal, Coinbase Agrees to Buy Deribit to Expand in U.S. Crypto Options Market

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Bitcoin’s Rally to Record Highs Puts Focus on $115K Where an ‘Invisible Hand’ May Slow Bull Run

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has surged to record highs, sparking optimism among investors. However, expected hedging activities of market makers/dealers, often an invisible force, at certain price levels, may slow the ascent.

The leading cryptocurrency topped the $111,000 mark during the Asian hours, with analysts anticipating stronger demand.

«The OTC supply may be drying up, driving up prices. This would not be reflected in exchange trading volumes or the derivatives market. If this is the case, get ready for a wild ride, as more demand is coming on board with a competitive bitcoin corporate treasury environment and, perhaps, a less elastic OTC spot market,» said Alexander S. Blume, founder and CEO of SEC-registered investment advisor Two Prime.

Blume explained that corporate treasuries coming on board have been buying over-the-counter «en masse,» and rumors are that sovereign demand for the cryptocurrency has picked up.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, said BTC could rally to $180,000 by the end of the year, led by spot ETF inflows, slower post-halving supply growth and growing institutional adoption.

«Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating to Aa1 is another key macro catalyst, sparking renewed interest in BTC and ETH as hedges against fiat risk. BTC’s ability to hold above $103,000 amid volatility highlights the market’s shift toward crypto as a strategic reserve asset,» Lee said.

Focus on $115K

While the path of least resistance is on the higher side, the pace of the bullish move may be challenged by potential hedging activities of options market makers/dealers at around $115K and higher price levels, according to Jeff Anderson, head of Asia at STS Digital.

Dealers are entities tasked with creating liquidity in an exchange’s order book. They are always on the opposite side of traders’ positions and make money from the bid-ask spread, while constantly striving to maintain a net-price neutral exposure.

Data from Deribit’s BTC options market, tracked by Amberdata, shows dealers hold significant «positive gamma» exposure at $115K and higher strike price levels.

When dealers’ gamma is positive, it means they are long call or put options. In this case, their delta (market exposure) increases when the underlying asset increases. Thus, their delta-hedging mandate requires selling more of the underlying asset as the price rises and vice versa.

The order-flow, therefore, acts as a contrarian force, limiting the price volatility, Anderson told CoinDesk.

The chart shows dealers' gamma profile at Deribit. (Amberdata/Deribit)

Dealer gamma is significantly positive, from $115K to $150K, thanks to investors’ interest in selling (overwriting) higher strike call options to generate additional yield on top of their spot holdings.

«There is lot of positive gamma in the market due to call overwriters. They will be more wary of this breakout, and if we can clear the pocket of gamma at $115K, this [rally] could really start to go,» Anderson said.

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SHIB Holds Strong Above Key Support as Volume Spikes Nearly 4x

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SHIB’s remarkable resilience during the recent trading session demonstrates growing investor confidence despite market turbulence.

The token’s ability to recover from a sudden drop to 0.0000143 with extraordinary volume support suggests institutional accumulation rather than retail panic.

With the psychological support at 0.000015 holding firm and multiple tests of upper resistance, SHIB appears poised for potential continuation of its upward trajectory if current accumulation patterns persist.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • SHIB demonstrated remarkable resilience over the 24-hour period, climbing from 0.0000146 to 0.0000150, representing a 2.85% gain with a range of 0.00000081 (5.64%).
  • The token experienced significant volatility at 17:00 when price plummeted to 0.0000143 before finding strong volume support.
  • A massive 2.83 trillion volume spike—nearly 4x the average—provided crucial support during the recovery phase.
  • Key resistance at 0.0000151 was tested twice during the period, with accumulation patterns forming in the final hours.
  • Three consecutive high-volume candles (23:00-01:00) established a solid foundation above the 0.000015 psychological level.
  • In the last hour, SHIB exhibited notable volatility with a significant price surge at 01:22 when it broke above the 0.0000151 resistance level, reaching 0.00001514 by 01:31.
  • Elevated trading volumes supported the bullish momentum, particularly during the 01:36 candle which recorded nearly 80 billion in volume.
  • A sharp correction at 01:37-01:38 dropped the price 5% to 0.00001505, before establishing a consolidation pattern.

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