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Bitcoin, the Haven Crypto Bulls Hoped for, Is More a Barometer of Risk: Godbole

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President Donald Trump’s trade war has introduced significant volatility to financial markets since March, prompting investors to chase assets they believe provide a hedge in this turbulent environment.

What’s clear: Bitcoin (BTC) is not one of them, much to the dismay of bullish investors who have long thought of the largest cryptocurrency as digital gold either as a store of value or a haven investment. The reality is that since the onset of the trade war, bitcoin has become more closely correlated with the Aussie dollar-yen pair (AUD/JPY), the foreign exchange market’s risk barometer.

Data from TradingView show the 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the AUD/JPY pair flipped positive in late February and has since hit the highest since November 2021. The tit-for-tat tariff war between the two nations has led to a staggering 245% cumulative levy on Chinese imports to the U.S., leading to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating stagflation risks on Wednesday.

The correlation of 0.80 — the maximum value is 1 — is considered strong, implying that the two variables, BTC and AUD/JPY, are closely related in their movements in the same direction.

In contrast, bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold flipped negative in late February and has since dropped to -0.80, just above the minimum -1. It means the two are closely related in their movements, but in opposite directions.

BTC, a proxy for risk

The Australian dollar, being China-sensitive and the home currency of a commodity-exporting nation, is seen as a risk currency. The yen is a safe haven because Japan has been a net international creditor for decades with near-zero interest rates.

When global markets are optimistic and commodity demand rises, the AUD typically appreciates, reflecting a higher risk appetite among investors and the yen drops. The opposite holds true when they become risk-averse.

Traders, therefore, monitor AUD/JPY as a risk indicator, viewing uptrends as positive signs for risk assets like stocks, and vice versa. Bitcoin, which was already emerging in a comparable role, has strengthened its position. The correlation data indicates that BTC is now as much a proxy for risk sentiment as AUD/JPY.

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Bitcoin Nears Golden Cross Weeks After ‘Trapping Bears’ as U.S. Debt Concerns Mount

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Bitcoin’s BTC price chart is echoing a bullish pattern that foreshadowed the late 2024 price surge from $70,000 to $100,000 amid mounting concerns over the sustainability of the U.S. debt.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value appears on track to confirm a «golden cross» in the coming days, according to charting platform TradingView. The pattern occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of prices crosses above the 200-day SMA to suggest that the short-term trend is outperforming the broader trend, with the potential to evolve into a major bull run.

The moving average-based golden cross has a mixed record of predicting price trends. The impending one, however, is worth noting because it’s about to occur weeks after its ominous-sounding opposite, the death cross, trapped bears on the wrong side of the market.

A similar pattern unfolded from August through September 2024, setting the stage for a convincing move above $70,000 in early November. Prices eventually set a record high above $109K in January this year.

BTC's price chart: 2024 vs 2025. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The chart on the left shows that BTC bottomed out at around $50,000 in early August last year as the 50-day SMA moved below the 200-day SMA to confirm the death cross.

In other words, the death cross was a bear trap, much like the one in early April this year. Prices turned higher in subsequent weeks, eventually beginning a new uptrend after the appearance of the golden cross in late October 2024.

The bullish sequence is being repeated since early April, and prices could begin the next leg higher following the confirmation of the golden cross in the coming days.

Past performance does not guarantee future results, and technical patterns do not always deliver as expected. That said, macro factors seem aligned with the bullish technical setup.

Moody’s amplifies U.S. debt concerns

On Friday, credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from the highest ”Aaa” to ”Aa1”, citing concerns over the increasing national debt, which has now reached $36 trillion.

The bond market has been pricing fiscal concerns for some time. Last week, CoinDesk detailed how persistent elevated Treasury yields reflected expectations for continued fiscal splurge and sovereign risk premium, both bullish for bitcoin.

Read: BTC Boom Likely as Bond Yields Surge

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XRP Price Surges After V-Shaped Recovery, Targets $3.40

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Global economic tensions and regulatory developments continue to influence XRP’s price action, with the digital asset showing remarkable resilience despite recent volatility.

After experiencing a significant dip to $2.307 on high volume, XRP has established an upward trajectory with a series of higher lows, suggesting continued momentum as it approaches resistance levels.

Technical indicators point to a potential bullish breakout, with multiple analysts highlighting critical support at $2.35-$2.40 that must hold for upward continuation.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • Price experienced a 3.76% range ($2.307-$2.396) over 24 hours with a sharp sell-off at 16:00 dropping to $2.307 on high volume (77.9M).
  • Strong support emerged at $2.32 level with buyers stepping in during high-volume periods, particularly during the 13:00-14:00 recovery.
  • Asset established upward trajectory, forming higher lows from the bottom, with resistance around $2.39 tested during 07:00 session.
  • In the last hour, XRP climbed from $2.358 to $2.368, representing a 0.42% gain with notable volume spikes at 01:52 and 01:55.
  • Price surged past resistance at $2.36 to reach $2.366, later establishing new local highs at $2.369 during 02:03 session on substantial volume (539,987).
  • Currently maintaining strength above $2.368 support level with decreasing volatility suggesting potential continuation of upward trajectory.

Disclaimer: This article was generated with AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy. This article may include information from external sources, which are listed below when applicable.

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SUI Surges After Finding Strong Support at $3.75 Level

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Global economic tensions and shifting trade policies continue to influence cryptocurrency markets, with SUI showing particular resilience.

The asset established a trading range of 4.46% between $3.70 and $3.86, finding strong volume support at the $3.755 level.

A notable bullish momentum emerged with price surging 1.9% on above-average volume, establishing resistance at $3.850.

The formation of higher lows throughout the latter part of the day suggests consolidation above the $3.775 support level.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • SUI established a 24-hour trading range of 0.165 (4.46%) between the low of 3.700 and high of 3.862.
  • Strong volume support emerged at the 3.755 level during hours 17-18, with accumulation exceeding the 24-hour volume average by 45%.
  • Notable bullish momentum occurred in the 20:00 hour with price surging 7.2 cents (1.9%) on above-average volume.
  • Resistance established at 3.850 with higher lows forming throughout the latter part of the day.
  • Decreasing volatility in the final hours suggests consolidation above the 3.775 support level.
  • Significant buyer interest appeared between 01:27-01:30, forming a strong support zone at 3.756-3.760 with exceptionally high volume (over 300,000 units per minute).
  • Decisive bullish reversal began at 01:42, establishing a series of higher lows and higher highs.
  • Breakout above 3.780 occurred at 01:55, followed by consolidation near 3.785 with decreasing volume.

Disclaimer: This article was generated with AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy. This article may include information from external sources, which are listed below when applicable.

External References

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