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Bitcoin Steady, Gold Tokens Shine as XAU Hits Record High; Inflation in Tokyo Rises

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So close yet so far – that’s the story for bitcoin (BTC) this Friday morning, as its price rally has stalled just shy of record highs amidst a continued rally in gold (XAU), a traditional risk asset, and crypto tokens associated with it.

BTC, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, changed hands near $104,400 at press time. Bitcoin prices are just 4.7% short of setting a new lifetime high, according to CoinDesk data.

President Trump’s reiteration of the tariffs threat looks to have clipped BTC’s wings. While some fear an extended sell-off before the next big bullish wave unfolds, action in the onchain derivatives market suggests otherwise.

«While some crypto leaders are betting on BTC to fall before rallying towards $250K later this year, the Derive.xyz market remains skeptical. In fact, there’s a 9.7% chance of BTC falling below $75K before March and an even less likely 4.4% chance that it will swing over $250K before September 26,» Nick Forster, founder at the leading decentralized onchain options AI-powered platform Derive.xyz, told CoinDesk.

Flows on Deribit and the CME remain bullish as momentum looks to be building for state-level BTC reserves in the U.S. That said, gold, a traditional safe haven, and tokens tied to gold are on the rise, and the latest uptick in Tokyo inflation supports the bullish case in the anti-risk yen.

Gold hits lifetime high

Gold rose to a record high of $2,799 per ounce early Friday, taking the month-to-date gain to 6.5%. The lifetime high comes as participants in the London bullion market rush to borrow the yellow metal from central banks, motivated by reports of heightened gold deliveries to the U.S. The flurry of activity is reportedly driven by worries over possible import tariffs, according to Reuters.

According to Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund’s Founder, Jeroen Blokland, gold’s rally to record highs against major fiat currencies hints at currency debasement. The intentional devaluation of paper money could also source demand for alternative investments like cryptocurrencies.

Gold-backed tokens are already drawing strength from the XAU price rise, although they continue to trade at a discount to the yellow metal. Tether gold (XAUT) rose to its lifetime high of $2,796 on Bitfinex early today, TradingView data show. Meanwhile, PAXG also teased a move to record highs above $2,800.

Tokyo inflation surges, AUD/JPY looks south

Consumer inflation in Tokyo, which tends to lead nationwide trends, sped up slightly in January, government data showed. Notably, the core figure, which excludes the volatile food and energy component, rose 2.5% in January from a year earlier, compared with the 2.4% increase seen in December.

The fastest annual increase is conducive to more Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hikes and yen strength. Last week, the central bank raised the policy rate to 0.5%, the highest in over 16 years.

A potential surge in the yen could destabilize riskier assets, as seen in August of last year. AUD/JPY, the FX market’s risk barometer, has dived out of a consolidation pattern, hinting at more losses and broad-based risk-off ahead.

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Senator Seeks to Waive U.S. Taxes on Small-Scale Crypto Activity in Big Budget Bill

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U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis is seeking to slip a significant crypto tax measure into the massive budget bill that backs much of President Donald Trump’s agenda, trying to reduce tax consequences stemming from fundamental cryptocurrency activities.

Lummis sought on Monday to insert language into Congress’ «Big Beautiful Bill» that would, among other things, waive taxes on small crypto transactions below $300 and would — in the industry’s view — rationalize a tax approach that currently has people hit for taxes on both the front end and back end of activity at the heart of the sector’s inner workings: staking and digital assets mining.

The idea of making small transactions tax-free (capped at $5,000 in overall transactions each year) would eliminate much of the burden of working out capital gains for people who only engage in a small amount of digital assets activity. That could clear a lot of headaches for those who’ve been hesitant to try crypto, the industry contends.

The amendment pushed by Lummis, which hasn’t yet come up for a vote, also addresses tax issues with crypto lending, wash sales and charitable contributions.

As the Digital Chamber put it on Monday, the move on mining, staking and other ways of gaining crypto assets would repair «a long overdue mistake on how these rewards are treated for tax purposes.»»Today, staking and block rewards are taxed upon both acquisition and point of sale,» the U.S. crypto lobbying group argued, pushing its constituents to petition Congress for support. «Senator Lummis’ provision solves this by taxing rewards only when sold, aligning policy with actual income.»

So-called validators in a blockchain are given rewards for staking their assets, providing them a return for otherwise locking up their cryptocurrency. It’s taxed when they receive the rewards and on the gains when they sell those assets. Industry critics of this approach are pushing for the change to a system that would instead tax the assets only upon their eventual sale.

Crypto mining works in much the same way, with assets created in the digital mining process and then later sold. Assets gained from aidrops and forks would also get the same treatment under Lummis’ amendment, getting taxed only when they’re ultimately sold.

The amendment might also address the wash-trading loophole lawmakers have sought for years to close. Under current rules, crypto investors can conduct a «tax-loss harvesting» strategy through strategically selling investments at a loss and immediately re-purchasing them.

The hard-fought Senate process has been going through an unlimited amendment process known as a «vote-a-rama» which began Monday morning, and Lummis sought to toss this amendment into the mix. The stakes are high for congressional Republicans on the wide-reaching bill, but party leaders have struggled to keep all of their members in the yes column as Democrats unite against it, taking issue with potential cuts to Medicaid, green energy initiatives and other aspects of the nearly 1,000-page legislation.

The U.S. House of Representatives barely passed its own version of the spending bill last month, and it would have to do so again if the Senate approves it with changes. Analysis of the measure concluded its provisions could add more than $3 trillion to the U.S. budget deficit.

UPDATE (July 1, 2025, 00:35 UTC): Adds tweet.

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ETH Price Surges as $2.9B Inflows, EthCC, and Robinhood’s L2 Fuel Bullish Sentiment

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Ether (ETH) 3.5% in the past 24 hours to $2,519 as of 18:59 UTC on June 30, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model, supported by continued institutional demand, network upgrades, and major retail platform integrations.

Institutional interest remains robust, with CoinShares reporting $429 million in net inflows into ether investment products over the past week and nearly $2.9 billion year-to-date. This trend has coincided with a declining ETH supply on exchanges and rising staking levels, with over 35 million ETH —a round 28% of the total supply — now locked in proof-of-stake contracts. Market analysts suggest that these factors are reducing liquid supply and bolstering ether’s long-term investment thesis.

Robinhood announced on Monday that it is developing its own Layer-2 blockchain using Arbitrum’s rollup infrastructure. The network is not yet live, but the initiative will eventually support Ethereum staking, tokenized stock trading, and perpetual crypto futures. Although the L2 is under development, the decision to build it on Ethereum’s rollup ecosystem is seen as a long-term vote of confidence in Ethereum’s scalability roadmap.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has also introduced a new digital identity framework using zero-knowledge proofs. This system allows users to verify traits or credentials without revealing private data and is designed to help Web3 apps incorporate privacy-preserving identity systems. Analysts view this as a key step toward wider adoption of decentralized applications requiring sensitive user authentication.

Meanwhile, the Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) kicked off in Cannes, France, gathering more than 6,400 attendees and 500 speakers. The event showcases Ethereum’s ongoing developer momentum through presentations on new tools, scaling strategies, and protocol improvements.

Despite the positive momentum, ETH remains just below its 200-day moving average, suggesting technical barriers still exist. However, the confluence of inflows, developer progress, and scaling plans continues to support a constructive outlook.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • Ether traded between $2,438.50 and $2,523 from June 29 19:00 to June 30 18:00, marking a 3.47% range.
  • The largest spike occurred during the 22:00–23:00 UTC window on June 29, when ETH surged 2.9% on volume of 368,292 ETH, briefly pushing through the $2,500 barrier.
  • On June 30 at 15:00 UTC, ETH found strong support around $2,438 on above-average volume, confirming a bullish floor.
  • A local high of $2,523 was reached earlier in the day, establishing resistance just above the psychological $2,500 level.
  • During the final hour from 18:00 to 18:59 UTC on June 30, ETH retraced from an intraday peak of $2,499.19 to close at $2,487.19.
  • A sharp upward move between 18:20–18:21 saw ETH climb 1.6% on 6,318 ETH volume, stalling near $2,499.
  • As of 20:23 UTC on June 30, ETH traded at $2,519, up 3.49% in 24 hours, signaling renewed bullish momentum into the Asia open.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Circle Applies for National Trust Bank Charter

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Circle (CRCL), the company behind the USDC stablecoin, said Monday it has filed an application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to form a federally regulated national trust bank.

A federal trust charter would bring Circle under direct OCC oversight, aligning it with how traditional financial institutions are regulated. If approved, the new entity, which would be called First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A. would oversee custody of USDC reserves and offer services tailored to institutions. If approved, Circle would join the ranks of federally chartered institutions like Paxos and Anchorage, both of which previously secured trust bank status to offer crypto-related services nationwide.

The trust bank status would allow Circle to operate across state lines without obtaining separate licenses in each state — a hurdle that has complicated expansion for many digital asset companies. It would also permit Circle to offer regulated digital asset custody services to institutional customers.

The move signals a strategic effort by Circle to solidify its regulatory standing as the U.S. mulls legislation like the GENIUS Act, which would create new guardrails for dollar-backed stablecoins. The company said becoming a national trust bank would help it meet anticipated requirements under the bill, which passed through the Senate earlier this month and now awaits a vote in the House of Representatives.

«By applying for a national trust charter, Circle is taking proactive steps to further strengthen our USDC infrastructure,» Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire said in a statement. «We will align with emerging U.S. regulation for the issuance and operation of dollar-denominated payment stablecoins, which we believe can enhance the reach and resilience of the U.S. dollar, and support the development of crucial, market neutral infrastructure for the world’s leading institutions to build on.”

Circle went public last month and issues the world’s second-largest stablecoin, USDC, and the leading euro-pegged token EURC.

The OCC, which oversees national banks and federal savings associations, must still review and approve Circle’s application. The agency has granted similar charters to a handful of crypto firms in recent years, signaling growing regulatory acceptance of digital asset companies operating within the traditional banking framework.

UPDATE (June 30, 2025, 20:50 UTC): Adds additional information.

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